Permafrost thaw and subsidence, sea-level rise, and erosion are transforming Alaska’s Arctic coastal zone
In the Arctic, which is warming at nearly four times the global average, the combined forces of permafrost thaw, rising seas, and coastal erosion could reshape the landscape far faster than previously believed.
Recent research led by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution projects that the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska could see 6 to 8 times more land lost to the combined impacts of permafrost thaw and subsidence, sea-level rise, and erosion by the end of the century compared to the effects of erosion alone. Without mitigating measures, coastal change could damage 40 to 65% of infrastructure in present-day coastal villages and 10 to 20% of oilfield infrastructure in the region by 2100.
Historically, scientists have often studied permafrost thaw, sea-level rise, and coastal erosion as separate phenomena in the Arctic. But the new research highlights how their interaction compounds the risks. As permanently frozen ground thaws, it causes the land to sink—a process known as subsidence—making coastlines even more vulnerable to encroaching seas and wave action.
Another aspect of the study examined the geochemical processes involved with this rapid thawing, sinking, and eroding of permafrost coasts. “Permafrost contains a lot of organic matter that can be decomposed to greenhouse gases if thawed or eroded,” said Emily Bristol, USGS Research Oceanographer and co-author of the study. “This study gives us a rough estimate of how much permafrost organic carbon may be disturbed along Alaska’s Beaufort Sea coast this century.”
Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain is home to Indigenous communities, as well as oil and gas infrastructure and military installations—all of which rely on stable, permanently frozen land. The study authors note that without strategic adaptation measures, many Arctic communities could face unprecedented challenges as permafrost coasts rapidly change.
The study, Permafrost thaw subsidence, sea-level rise, and erosion are transforming Alaska’s Arctic coastal zone, was published December 2024 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). In March 2025 the study was awarded the PNAS Cozzarelli Prize in Physical and Mathematical Sciences, which annually acknowledges papers that reflect scientific excellence and originality.
Related
Coastal Climate Impacts
Related
Coastal Climate Impacts
Get Our News
These items are in the RSS feed format (Really Simple Syndication) based on categories such as topics, locations, and more. You can install an RSS reader browser extension, software, or use a third-party service to receive immediate news updates depending on the feed that you have added. If you click the feed links below, they may look strange because they are simply XML code. An RSS reader can easily read this code and push out a notification to you when something new is posted to our site.