Forecasting Coastal Change Active
This project focuses on understanding the magnitude and variability of extreme storm impacts on sandy beaches. The overall objective is to improve real-time and scenario-based predictions of coastal change to support management of coastal infrastructure, resources, and safety.
Understanding Extreme Storm Impacts on Sandy Beaches
The forecasting coastal change component of the National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project focuses on understanding the magnitude and variability of extreme storm impacts on sandy beaches. The overall objective is to improve real-time and scenario-based predictions of coastal change to support management of coastal infrastructure, resources, and safety.
Our Nation's coastlines are in constant flux through the processes of erosion and deposition. Storms of various types impact the coast further. Hurricanes are more likely to affect the Atlantic and Gulf coast states, while winter storms affect all coastlines throughout the conterminous United States as well as Alaska and Hawaii. The impacts to population, infrastructure, and habitat vary geographically, depending on shoreline type, whether sandy beach, rocky shore, sea cliff, barrier island or wetland.
Storm-Induced Coastal Change
Hurricanes and other extreme storms generate storm surge and large waves, eroding the beach and dune system and reshaping the coastal landscape. Six types of coastal change observed along the coastlines of the United States are: beach erosion, dune erosion, overwash, inundation and island breaching, marsh erosion, and coastal cliff erosion.
Scenario-Based Assessments
Storm-induced water levels, due to both surge and waves, are compared to beach and dune elevations to determine the probabilities of three types of coastal change.
Real-Time Storm Response
Response activities include documenting pre-storm morphology, estimating storm-induced extreme water levels, forecasting storm-specific probabilities of coastal change, measuring post-storm morphology, quantifying storm-induced coastal change, and updating assessments of vulnerabilities to storm-induced coastal erosion.
Operational Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecasts
The USGS is working with the National Weather Service to combine USGS-derived beach morphology and wave predictions from the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) to provide regional weather offices detailed forecasts of wave-induced water levels. Two pilot study areas are in the testing phase: Duck, North Carolina and Sunset Beach, Florida.
Storm-Induced Coastal Processes
Process studies examine the physical processes at work prior to, during, and following coastal storm events. Understanding the processes involved in coastal landform evolution will improve the accuracy of the assessments of storm-induced coastal change hazards.
West Coast Storm Impacts
We are developing rigorous research tools to understand the physical impacts that climate change and sea-level rise will have on dynamic geologic settings along Pacific and Arctic coasts. This research covers an enormous range of coastal settings: from permafrost coasts, to the Puget Sound estuary, the California coast, and low-lying Pacific atolls.
By understanding the effects of extreme storms, including coastal flooding, changes in the shoreline, and movement of sediment, we can develop better models for understanding long-term vulnerability of sea-level rise in various coastal settings, and help coastal managers and businesses plan for a changing climate. More info: Coastal Climate Impacts and Remote Sensing Coastal Change
Video Remote Sensing of Coastal Processes
Video observations of the coast are used to monitor a range of coastal processes, for example changes in the shoreline position, both seasonally and due to long-term effects such as sea-level rise, and instances of beach and dune erosion during extreme storm events. More info: Video Remote Sensing of Coastal Processes and Remote Sensing Coastal Change
Below are research tasks and science projects associated with this project.
National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards
Storm-Induced Coastal Processes
Video Remote Sensing of Coastal Processes
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Below are publications associated with this project.
National assessment of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards: Mid-Atlantic Coast
Improving understanding of near-term barrier island evolution through multi-decadal assessment of morphologic change
Hurricane Isaac: observations and analysis of coastal change
Probabilistic prediction of barrier-island response to hurricanes
On the use of wave parameterizations and a storm impact scaling model in National Weather Service Coastal Flood and decision support operations
Observations of wave runup, setup, and swash on natural beaches
Impacts and predictions of coastal change during hurricanes
Coastal Change on Gulf Islands National Seashore during Hurricane Gustav: West Ship, East Ship, Horn, and Petit Bois Islands
Forecasting hurricane impact on coastal topography: Hurricane Ike
Hurricane Ike: Observations and analysis of coastal change
Hurricane Gustav: Observations and analysis of coastal change
The need for sustained and integrated high-resolution mapping of dynamic coastal environments
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Coastal Change Hazards Portal
Interactive access to coastal change science and data for our Nation’s coasts. Information and products are organized within three coastal change hazard themes: 1) extreme storms, 2) shoreline change, and 3) sea-level rise. Displays probabilities of coastal erosion.
Below are news stories associated with this project.
- Overview
This project focuses on understanding the magnitude and variability of extreme storm impacts on sandy beaches. The overall objective is to improve real-time and scenario-based predictions of coastal change to support management of coastal infrastructure, resources, and safety.
Understanding Extreme Storm Impacts on Sandy Beaches
The forecasting coastal change component of the National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project focuses on understanding the magnitude and variability of extreme storm impacts on sandy beaches. The overall objective is to improve real-time and scenario-based predictions of coastal change to support management of coastal infrastructure, resources, and safety.
Our Nation's coastlines are in constant flux through the processes of erosion and deposition. Storms of various types impact the coast further. Hurricanes are more likely to affect the Atlantic and Gulf coast states, while winter storms affect all coastlines throughout the conterminous United States as well as Alaska and Hawaii. The impacts to population, infrastructure, and habitat vary geographically, depending on shoreline type, whether sandy beach, rocky shore, sea cliff, barrier island or wetland.
Storm-Induced Coastal Change
Hurricanes and other extreme storms generate storm surge and large waves, eroding the beach and dune system and reshaping the coastal landscape. Six types of coastal change observed along the coastlines of the United States are: beach erosion, dune erosion, overwash, inundation and island breaching, marsh erosion, and coastal cliff erosion.
Scenario-Based Assessments
Storm-induced water levels, due to both surge and waves, are compared to beach and dune elevations to determine the probabilities of three types of coastal change.
Real-Time Storm Response
Response activities include documenting pre-storm morphology, estimating storm-induced extreme water levels, forecasting storm-specific probabilities of coastal change, measuring post-storm morphology, quantifying storm-induced coastal change, and updating assessments of vulnerabilities to storm-induced coastal erosion.
Operational Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecasts
The USGS is working with the National Weather Service to combine USGS-derived beach morphology and wave predictions from the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) to provide regional weather offices detailed forecasts of wave-induced water levels. Two pilot study areas are in the testing phase: Duck, North Carolina and Sunset Beach, Florida.
Storm-Induced Coastal Processes
Process studies examine the physical processes at work prior to, during, and following coastal storm events. Understanding the processes involved in coastal landform evolution will improve the accuracy of the assessments of storm-induced coastal change hazards.
West Coast Storm Impacts
We are developing rigorous research tools to understand the physical impacts that climate change and sea-level rise will have on dynamic geologic settings along Pacific and Arctic coasts. This research covers an enormous range of coastal settings: from permafrost coasts, to the Puget Sound estuary, the California coast, and low-lying Pacific atolls.
By understanding the effects of extreme storms, including coastal flooding, changes in the shoreline, and movement of sediment, we can develop better models for understanding long-term vulnerability of sea-level rise in various coastal settings, and help coastal managers and businesses plan for a changing climate. More info: Coastal Climate Impacts and Remote Sensing Coastal Change
Video Remote Sensing of Coastal Processes
Video observations of the coast are used to monitor a range of coastal processes, for example changes in the shoreline position, both seasonally and due to long-term effects such as sea-level rise, and instances of beach and dune erosion during extreme storm events. More info: Video Remote Sensing of Coastal Processes and Remote Sensing Coastal Change
- Science
Below are research tasks and science projects associated with this project.
National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards
Research to identify areas that are most vulnerable to coastal change hazards including beach and dune erosion, long-term shoreline change, and sea-level rise.ByNatural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center, Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Jose, Hurricane Maria, Hurricane Matthew, Hurricane SandyFilter Total Items: 14Storm-Induced Coastal Processes
Process studies examine the physical processes at work prior to, during, and following coastal storm events. Understanding the processes involved in coastal landform evolution will improve the accuracy of the assessments of storm-induced coastal change hazards.Video Remote Sensing of Coastal Processes
Video observations of the coast are used to monitor a range of coastal processes, for example changes in the shoreline position, both seasonally and due to long-term effects such as sea-level rise, and instances of beach and dune erosion during extreme storm events. - Data
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 28National assessment of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards: Mid-Atlantic Coast
Beaches serve as a natural buffer between the ocean and inland communities, ecosystems, and natural resources. However, these dynamic environments move and change in response to winds, waves, and currents. During extreme storms, changes to beaches can be large, and the results are sometimes catastrophic. Lives may be lost, communities destroyed, and millions of dollars spent on rebuilding. DuringAuthorsKara S. Doran, Hilary F. Stockdon, Kristin L. Sopkin, David M. Thompson, Nathaniel G. PlantImproving understanding of near-term barrier island evolution through multi-decadal assessment of morphologic change
Observed morphodynamic changes over multiple decades were coupled with storm-driven run-up characteristics at Fire Island, New York, to explore the influence of wave processes relative to the impacts of other coastal change drivers on the near-term evolution of the barrier island. Historical topography was generated from digital stereo-photogrammetry and compared with more recent lidar surveys toAuthorsErika E. Lentz, Cheryl J. Hapke, Hilary F. Stockdon, Rachel E. HehreHurricane Isaac: observations and analysis of coastal change
Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with a storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical process of interest is sediment transport that is driven by waves, currents, and storm surge associated with storms. Storm surge, which is the rise in water level due to the wind, barometriAuthorsKristy K. Guy, Hilary F. Stockdon, Nathaniel G. Plant, Kara S. Doran, Karen L.M. MorganProbabilistic prediction of barrier-island response to hurricanes
Prediction of barrier-island response to hurricane attack is important for assessing the vulnerability of communities, infrastructure, habitat, and recreational assets to the impacts of storm surge, waves, and erosion. We have demonstrated that a conceptual model intended to make qualitative predictions of the type of beach response to storms (e.g., beach erosion, dune erosion, dune overwash, inunAuthorsNathaniel G. Plant, Hilary F. StockdonOn the use of wave parameterizations and a storm impact scaling model in National Weather Service Coastal Flood and decision support operations
National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) are responsible for issuing coastal flood watches, warnings, advisories, and local statements to alert decision makers and the general public when rising water levels may lead to coastal impacts such as inundation, erosion, and wave battery. Both extratropical and tropical cyclones can generate the prerequisite rise in water level to seAuthorsAnthony Mignone, H. Stockdon, M. Willis, J.W. Cannon, R. ThompsonObservations of wave runup, setup, and swash on natural beaches
Video-based observations of wave runup, setup, and swash from 10 dynamically diverse field experiments are presented. These data were used to develop widely applicable empirical parameterizations for wave setup, incident band swash height, infragravity band swash height, and the 2-percent exceedance level for wave runup. Details regarding the experiments, data analysis, and empirical parameterizatAuthorsHilary F. Stockdon, Rob A. HolmanImpacts and predictions of coastal change during hurricanes
Beaches serve as a natural barrier between the ocean and inland communities, ecosystems, and resources. These dynamic environments move and change in response to winds, waves, and currents. During a powerful hurricane, changes to beaches can be large, and the results are sometimes catastrophic. Lives are lost, communities are destroyed, and millions of dollars are spent on rebuilding. There is a cAuthorsHilary Stockdon, Abby SallengerCoastal Change on Gulf Islands National Seashore during Hurricane Gustav: West Ship, East Ship, Horn, and Petit Bois Islands
INTRODUCTION Hurricane Gustav made landfall on September 1, 2008, near Cocodrie, Louisiana, as a category 2 storm, with maximum sustained winds near 170 km/hr. Hurricane-force winds, with speeds in excess of 119 km/hr, extended along 270 km of the Louisiana coastline, from Marsh Island to the central barrier islands. Tropical-storm-force winds (speeds > 63 km/hr) were felt across the coasts of MiAuthorsHilary F. Stockdon, Kara S. Doran, Katherine A. SerafinForecasting hurricane impact on coastal topography: Hurricane Ike
Extreme storms can have a profound impact on coastal topography and thus on ecosystems and human-built structures within coastal regions. For instance, landfalls of several recent major hurricanes have caused significant changes to the U.S. coastline, particularly along the Gulf of Mexico. Some of these hurricanes (e.g., Ivan in 2004, Katrina and Rita in 2005, and Gustav and Ike in 2008) led to shAuthorsNathaniel G. Plant, Hilary F. Stockdon, Asbury H. Sallenger,, Michael J. Turco, Jeffery W. East, Arthur A. Taylor, Wilson A. ShafferHurricane Ike: Observations and analysis of coastal change
Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with the storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, and wave climate. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for much ofAuthorsKara S. Doran, Nathaniel G. Plant, Hilary F. Stockdon, Asbury H. Sallenger, Katherine A. SerafinHurricane Gustav: Observations and analysis of coastal change
Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with a storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, currents, and wave field. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for mAuthorsKara S. Doran, Hilary F. Stockdon, Nathaniel G. Plant, Asbury H. Sallenger, Kristy K. Guy, Katherine A. SerafinThe need for sustained and integrated high-resolution mapping of dynamic coastal environments
The coastal zone of the United States is a dynamic environment evolving in response to both natural processes and human activities. In order to protect coastal populations and resources, a detailed understanding of the physical setting and of the processes responsible for change is required. A sustained program of mapping coastal areas provides a means to establish baseline conditions, document chAuthorsHilary F. Stockdon, Jeff W. Lillycrop, Peter A. Howd, Jennifer M. Wozencraft - Web Tools
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Coastal Change Hazards Portal
Interactive access to coastal change science and data for our Nation’s coasts. Information and products are organized within three coastal change hazard themes: 1) extreme storms, 2) shoreline change, and 3) sea-level rise. Displays probabilities of coastal erosion.
ByNatural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center, Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Dorian, Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Ian, Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Isaias, Hurricane Jose, Hurricane Laura, Hurricane Marco, Hurricane Maria, Hurricane Matthew, Hurricane Michael, Hurricane Nate, Hurricane Sandy, Hurricanes - News
Below are news stories associated with this project.