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Probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis for the western Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

We present a probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA) for the west-central part of the Arabian Peninsula. Our study area includes the northern Harrat Rahat volcanic field and the nearby city of Al Madīnah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This young, active volcanic field experienced one historical eruption in 1256 C.E. (654 in the year of the Hijra) that vented 20 to 22 kilometers (km) southeast of t

Ryota Kiuchi, Walter D. Mooney, Hani M. Zahran

Seismic hazard assessment for areas of volcanic activity in western Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Earthquake swarms caused by volcanic activity, tectonic stresses, or industrial operations (oil and gas production) can pose considerable risk for nearby settlements. As a rule, a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) that is based on time-independent earthquakes does not take into account earthquake swarms because of their statistically time-dependent nature. We describe the technique an
Hani M. Zahran, Vladimir Sokolov, Ian C. F. Stewart

Ground-motion prediction equations for the western Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for the western Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are developed by employing a mixed-effects regression model to modify the Boore and others (2014) Next Generation Attenuation-West2 (NGA-West2) project GMPEs. NGA-West2 addressed several key issues concerning GMPEs for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. However, the NGA-West2 input data do not i
Ryota Kiuchi, Walter D. Mooney, Hani M. Zahran

Ambient seismic noise tomography of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Harrat Rahat is a Cenozoic volcanic field in the west-central part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 150 kilometers east of the Red Sea, and is the site of the most recent eruption in the country (1256 C.E.; 654 in the year of the Hijra). The city of Al Madīnah lies at the north end of Harrat Rahat, and its volcanic and seismic risks are frequently reassessed. In 2009 C.E. an earthquake swarm at Har
Francesco Civilini, Walter D. Mooney, Martha K. Savage, John Townend

Thickness of the Saudi Arabian crust

As part of a joint Saudi Geological Survey (SGS) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) project, we analyzed P-wave receiver functions from seismic stations covering most of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to map the thickness of the crust across the Arabia Plate. We present an update of crustal-thickness estimates and fill in gaps for the western Arabian Shield and the rifted margin at the Red Sea (the co
Alexander R. Blanchette, Simon L. Klemperer, Walter D. Mooney, Hani M. Zahran

The Saudi Geological Survey-U.S. Geological Survey northern Harrat Rahat project—Styles, rates, causes, and hazards of volcanism near Al Madīnah al Munawwarah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Active volcanic systems pose serious hazards to people and property including inundation and incineration by lava, blanketing by tephra (volcanic ash), exposure to noxious volcanic gases, and damage from shallow earthquakes triggered by ascending molten material (magma). To improve understanding of volcanism and associated seismicity on the western Arabia Plate, the Saudi Geological Survey and the
Thomas W. Sisson, Andrew T. Calvert, Walter D. Mooney

The USGS 2023cConterminous U.S. time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast

We present the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast for the conterminous United States, which gives authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time‐averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes throughout the region. In addition to updating virtually all model components, a major focus has been to provide a better representation of epistemi

Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Peter M. Powers, Fred Pollitz, Andrea L. Llenos, Yuehua Zeng, Kaj M. Johnson, Bruce E. Shaw, Devin McPhillips, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Allison Shumway, Andrew J. Michael, Zheng-Kang Shen, Eileen L. Evans, Elizabeth H. Hearn, Charles Mueller, Arthur Frankel, Mark D. Petersen, Christopher DuRoss, Richard W. Briggs, Morgan T. Page, Justin Rubinstein, Julie A Herrick

Total shortening estimates across the western Greater Caucasus Mountains from balanced cross sections and area balancing

The Greater Caucasus orogen forms the northern edge of the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone. Although the orogen has long been assumed to exhibit dominantly thick-skinned style deformation via reactivation of high-angle extensional faults, recent work suggests the range may have accommodated several hundred kilometers or more of shortening since its ~30 Ma initiation, and this shortening may be accom
Charles Cashman Trexler, Eric S. Cowgill, Dylan A Vasey, Nathan A. Niemi

Panel review of Ground Motion Characterization Model in 2023 NSHM

The 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM; Petersen et al., 2023) has two major components – a seismic source characterization (SSC) model and a ground motion characterization (GMC) model. The US Geological Survey (USGS) established separate panels to review and provide input on these two models. Both panels are advisory, meaning that they provide input on technical issues for consideration by
Jonathan P. Stewart, Norman A. Abrahamson, Gail M. Atkinson, John G. Anderson, Kenneth W. Campbell, Chris H. Cramer, Michael Kolaj, Grace Alexandra Parker

Crustal block-controlled contrasts in deformation, uplift, and exhumation in the Santa Cruz Mountains, California, USA, imaged through apatite (U-Th)/He thermochronology and 3-D geological modeling

Deformation along strike-slip plate margins often accumulates within structurally partitioned and rheologically heterogeneous crustal blocks within the plate boundary. In these cases, contrasts in the physical properties and state of juxtaposed crustal blocks may play an important role in accommodation of deformation. Near the San Francisco Bay Area, California, USA, the Pacific−North American pla
Curtis William Baden, David L. Shuster, Jeremy H. Hourigan, Jared T. Gooley, Melanie Cahill, George E. Hilley

Time-dependent weakening of granite at hydrothermal conditions

The evolution of a fault's frictional strength during the interseismic period is a critical component of the earthquake cycle, yet there have been relatively few studies that examine the time-dependent evolution of strength at conditions representative of seismogenic depths. Using a simulated fault in Westerly granite, we examined how frictional strength evolves under hydrothermal conditions up to
Tamara Nicole Jeppson, David A. Lockner, Nicholas M. Beeler, Diane E. Moore

Rapid surface rupture mapping from satellite data: The 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Turkey (Türkiye), earthquake sequence

The 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Turkey (Türkiye), earthquake sequence produced > 500 km of surface rupture primarily on the left‐lateral East Anatolian (~345 km) and Çardak (~175 km) faults. Constraining the length and magnitude of surface displacement on the causative faults is critical for loss estimates, recovery efforts, rapid identification of impacted infrastructure, and fault displacemen
Nadine G. Reitman, Richard W. Briggs, William D. Barnhart, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Christopher DuRoss, Ryan D. Gold, John David Mejstrik, Camille Collett, Richard D Koehler, Sinan Akçiz