Publications

This report describes geodetic and geologic information used to constrain deformation models of the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), a set of deformation models to interpret these data, and their implications for earthquake rates in the western United States. Recent updates provide a much larger data set of Global Positioning System crustal velocities than used in the 2014

Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity solutions of the western United States (WUS) are compiled from several sources of field networks and data processing centers for the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). These solutions include both survey and continuous‐mode GPS velocity measurements. I follow the data processing procedure of Parsons et al. (2013) for the Unifo

The 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard (NSHM) model is informed by several deformation models that furnish geodetically estimated fault slip rates. Here I describe a fault‐based model that permits estimation of long‐term slip rates on discrete faults and the distribution of off‐fault moment release. It is based on quantification of the earthquake cycle on a viscoelastic model of the seismo

For decades there has been a debate about the relative effects of dynamic versus static stress triggering of aftershocks. According to the static Coulomb stress change hypothesis, aftershocks should not occur in stress shadows—regions where static Coulomb stress has been reduced. We show that static stress shadows substantially influence aftershock occurrence following three M ≥ 7 California mains

Earthquake focal mechanisms are traditionally produced using P‐wave first‐motion polarities and commonly require well‐recorded seismicity. A recent approach that is less dependent on high signal‐to‐noise exploits similar waveforms to produce relative polarity measurements between earthquake pairs. Utilizing these relative polarity measurements, it is possible to produce composite focal mechanisms

Earthquakes often occur in regions with complex material structure, such as sedimentary basins or mantle wedges. However, the majority of co-seismic modelling studies assume a simplified, often homogeneous elastic structure in order to expedite the process of model construction and speed up calculations. These co-seismic forward models are used to produce Green’s functions for finite-fault inversi

No abstract available.

Recurrence intervals for ground rupturing earthquakes are critical data for assessing seismic hazard. Recurrence intervals are presented here for 38 paleoseismic sites in California. Eleven of these include new or updated data; the remainder use data previously included in the Unified California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3). The methods and results are consistent with UCERF3. In

The use of simple models for response prediction of building structures is preferred in earthquake engineering for risk evaluations at regional scales, as they make computational studies more feasible. The primary impediment in their gainful use presently is the lack of viable methods for quantifying (and reducing upon) the modeling errors/uncertainties they bear. This study presents a Bayesian ca

As part of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) update planned for 2023, two databases were prepared to more completely represent Quaternary-active faulting across the western United States: the NSHM23 fault sections database (FSD) and earthquake geology database (EQGeoDB). In prior iterations of NSHM, fault sections were included only if a field-measurement-derived slip rate was estimate

The interaction of aseismic and seismic slip before and after an earthquake is fundamental for both earthquake nucleation and postseismic stress relaxation. However, it can be difficult to determine where and when aseismic slip occurs within the seismogenic zone because geodetic techniques are limited to detecting moderate to large slip amplitudes or long duration small slip amplitudes. Here, we u

If brittle fault strength depends only on friction, slip instability is discouraged at low effective normal stress, σ. Stress drop and the critical stiffness necessary for unstable sliding both vanish with σ; small earthquakes cannot occur. Very low σ is inferred in the source region of low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) on the San Andreas fault (SAF). Moreover, if pore pressure, p, is undrained at