Earthquake Early Warning - Overview Active
USGS is actively pursuing research in earthquake early warning.
How the ShakeAlert® System Works
DETECT, DELIVER, PROTECT: ShakeAlert® is not earthquake prediction. Rather, the USGS-operated ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning system detects an earthquake that has already started and estimates its location, magnitude and shaking intensity. If an earthquake becomes large enough to meet USGS alert thresholds, a ShakeAlert Message is issued. Then, technical partners, which have entered into a license agreement with the USGS, use this information produce and deliver an alert that prompts people to take a protective action, such as DROP, COVER, AND HOLD ON, and/or to trigger an automated action that can protect vital systems, equipment, facilities, and infrastructure. These automated actions could include slowing a train, closing valves, issuing a public announcement, and many others.
The ShakeAlert system takes a network approach to earthquake detection and alerting. This network uses sensors distributed over a wide area where earthquakes are likely to occur on the West Coast of the United States (with nearly 1,700 anticipated on network build-out). Data from individual sensors across large regions are combined to maximize accuracy and alerting time during moderate-to-large earthquakes.
During an earthquake, a rupturing fault produces several different kinds of waves that carry energy away
from the epicenter like ripples from a rock thrown into a pond. The fastest-moving seismic waves (primary or P-waves) travel about 3.7 miles per second and generally do not produce strong shaking. P-waves are followed by slower moving, and generally more damaging waves (secondary or S-waves) and surface waves that travel about 2.5 miles per second. The ShakeAlert sensor network detects earthquakes quickly, and immediately transmits data to a ShakeAlert Processing Center, where estimates of the location, size, and shaking intensity of the earthquake are determined in a matter of seconds.
Technical Partners are integral to the ShakeAlert System because they are responsible for producing and delivering ShakeAlert-powered alerts to people and critical systems. Technical Partners span multiple industries and sectors, and include private for-profit companies, public entities, and nonprofits that can benefit from becoming part of the ShakeAlert System.
ShakeAlert works because:
- P-waves travel almost twice as fast as the damaging S-waves and surface waves; and
- The speeds of today’s data telecommunications systems are many times faster than seismic waves. Both of these factors make it possible for ShakeAlert-powered alerts to reach people before shaking arrives. Because of the speed difference between P-waves, S-waves, and surface waves, someone who is farther from the earthquake’s origin has more time to potentially receive an alert before shaking arrives.
ShakeAlert®-Powered Alert Delivery Levels
If an earthquake becomes large enough to meet USGS alert thresholds, a ShakeAlert Message is issued. ShakeAlert technical partners use this information to produce and deliver alerts that rapidly prompts people to take a protective action, such as DROP, COVER, AND HOLD ON, and/or to trigger an automated action that can protect vital systems, equipment, facilities, and infrastructure. These automated actions could include slowing a train, closing valves, issuing a public announcement, and many others.
For example, cell phone app providers and Android can deliver ShakeAlert-powered alerts to people who could feel weak shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity - MMI III) or greater for earthquakes M4.5 and larger. For people who could feel moderate shaking (MMI V) or greater Android delivers alerts with more urgent language.
The Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) Scale is composed of increasing levels of intensity that range from imperceptible shaking to catastrophic destruction; levels of intensity are designated by Roman numerals. The MMI Scale does not have a mathematical basis; instead, it is a holistic ranking based on observed effects. The lower range of the MMI scale generally deals with the manner in which the earthquake is felt by people. The higher range considers observed structural damage.
For More Information:
How often can Earthquake Early Warning systems alert sites with high intensity ground motion?
Event detection performance of the PLUM earthquake early warning algorithm in southern California
Peak ground displacement saturates exactly when expected: Implications for earthquake early warning
The limits of earthquake early warning accuracy and best alerting strategy
Development of a geodetic component for the U.S. West Coast Earthquake Early Warning System
Revised technical implementation plan for the ShakeAlert system—An earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States
Lessons from Mexico’s earthquake early warning system
Research to improve ShakeAlert earthquake early warning products and their utility
The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates
Earthquake Early Warning ShakeAlert System: Testing and certification platform
Earthquake early Warning ShakeAlert system: West coast wide production prototype
Combining multiple earthquake models in real time for earthquake early warning
- Overview
USGS is actively pursuing research in earthquake early warning.
How the ShakeAlert® System Works
DETECT, DELIVER, PROTECT: ShakeAlert® is not earthquake prediction. Rather, the USGS-operated ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning system detects an earthquake that has already started and estimates its location, magnitude and shaking intensity. If an earthquake becomes large enough to meet USGS alert thresholds, a ShakeAlert Message is issued. Then, technical partners, which have entered into a license agreement with the USGS, use this information produce and deliver an alert that prompts people to take a protective action, such as DROP, COVER, AND HOLD ON, and/or to trigger an automated action that can protect vital systems, equipment, facilities, and infrastructure. These automated actions could include slowing a train, closing valves, issuing a public announcement, and many others.
The ShakeAlert system takes a network approach to earthquake detection and alerting. This network uses sensors distributed over a wide area where earthquakes are likely to occur on the West Coast of the United States (with nearly 1,700 anticipated on network build-out). Data from individual sensors across large regions are combined to maximize accuracy and alerting time during moderate-to-large earthquakes.
During an earthquake, a rupturing fault produces several different kinds of waves that carry energy away
from the epicenter like ripples from a rock thrown into a pond. The fastest-moving seismic waves (primary or P-waves) travel about 3.7 miles per second and generally do not produce strong shaking. P-waves are followed by slower moving, and generally more damaging waves (secondary or S-waves) and surface waves that travel about 2.5 miles per second. The ShakeAlert sensor network detects earthquakes quickly, and immediately transmits data to a ShakeAlert Processing Center, where estimates of the location, size, and shaking intensity of the earthquake are determined in a matter of seconds.
Technical Partners are integral to the ShakeAlert System because they are responsible for producing and delivering ShakeAlert-powered alerts to people and critical systems. Technical Partners span multiple industries and sectors, and include private for-profit companies, public entities, and nonprofits that can benefit from becoming part of the ShakeAlert System.
ShakeAlert works because:
- P-waves travel almost twice as fast as the damaging S-waves and surface waves; and
- The speeds of today’s data telecommunications systems are many times faster than seismic waves. Both of these factors make it possible for ShakeAlert-powered alerts to reach people before shaking arrives. Because of the speed difference between P-waves, S-waves, and surface waves, someone who is farther from the earthquake’s origin has more time to potentially receive an alert before shaking arrives.
ShakeAlert®-Powered Alert Delivery Levels
If an earthquake becomes large enough to meet USGS alert thresholds, a ShakeAlert Message is issued. ShakeAlert technical partners use this information to produce and deliver alerts that rapidly prompts people to take a protective action, such as DROP, COVER, AND HOLD ON, and/or to trigger an automated action that can protect vital systems, equipment, facilities, and infrastructure. These automated actions could include slowing a train, closing valves, issuing a public announcement, and many others.
For example, cell phone app providers and Android can deliver ShakeAlert-powered alerts to people who could feel weak shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity - MMI III) or greater for earthquakes M4.5 and larger. For people who could feel moderate shaking (MMI V) or greater Android delivers alerts with more urgent language.
The Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) Scale is composed of increasing levels of intensity that range from imperceptible shaking to catastrophic destruction; levels of intensity are designated by Roman numerals. The MMI Scale does not have a mathematical basis; instead, it is a holistic ranking based on observed effects. The lower range of the MMI scale generally deals with the manner in which the earthquake is felt by people. The higher range considers observed structural damage.
For More Information:
- Publications
Filter Total Items: 32
How often can Earthquake Early Warning systems alert sites with high intensity ground motion?
Although numerous Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) algorithms have been developed we still lack a detailed understanding of how often and under what circumstances useful ground motion alerts can be provided to end-users. Here we analyze the alerting performance of the PLUM, EPIC and FinDer algorithms by running them retrospectively on the seismic strong motion data of the 219 earthquakes in Japan siAuthorsM.-A. Meier, Y. Kodera, M. Bose, A. I. Chung, M. Hoshiba, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Sarah E. Minson, E. Hauksson, T. HeatonEvent detection performance of the PLUM earthquake early warning algorithm in southern California
We test the Japanese ground‐motion‐based earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm, propagation of local undamped motion (PLUM), in southern California with application to the U.S. ShakeAlert system. In late 2018, ShakeAlert began limited public alerting in Los Angeles to areas of expected modified Mercalli intensity (IMMI) 4.0+ for magnitude 5.0+ earthquakes. Most EEW systems, including ShakeAleAuthorsElizabeth S. Cochran, Julian Bunn, Sarah E. Minson, Annemarie S. Baltay, Deborah L. Kilb, Y. Kodera, Mitsuyuki HoshibaPeak ground displacement saturates exactly when expected: Implications for earthquake early warning
The scaling of rupture properties with magnitude is of critical importance to earthquake early warning (EEW) systems that rely on source characterization using limited snapshots of waveform data. ShakeAlert, a prototype EEW system that is being developed for the western United States, provides real-time estimates of earthquake magnitude based on P-wave peak ground displacements measured at stationAuthorsDaniel T. Trugman, Morgan T. Page, Sarah E. Minson, Elizabeth S. CochranThe limits of earthquake early warning accuracy and best alerting strategy
We explore how accurate earthquake early warning (EEW) can be, given our limited ability to forecast expected shaking even if the earthquake source is known. Because of the strong variability of ground motion metrics, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV), we find that correct alerts (i.e., alerts that accurately predict the observed ground motion above a predetermAuthorsSarah E. Minson, Annemarie S. Baltay, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Thomas C. Hanks, Morgan T. Page, Sara McBride, Kevin R. Milner, Men-Andrin MeierDevelopment of a geodetic component for the U.S. West Coast Earthquake Early Warning System
An earthquake early warning (EEW) system, ShakeAlert, is under development for the West Coast of the United States. This system currently uses the first few seconds of waveforms recorded by seismic instrumentation to rapidly characterize earthquake magnitude, location, and origin time; ShakeAlert recently added a seismic line source algorithm. For large to great earthquakes, magnitudes estimated fAuthorsJessica R. Murray, Brendan W. Crowell, R. Grapenthin, Kathleen Hodgkinson, John O. Langbein, Timothy Melbourne, Diego Melgar, Sarah E. Minson, David A. SchmidtRevised technical implementation plan for the ShakeAlert system—An earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), along with partner organizations, has developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) system called ShakeAlert for the highest risk areas of the United States: namely, California, Oregon, and Washington. The purpose of the system is to reduce the impact of earthquakes and save lives and property by providing alerts to institutional users and the public. Using networkAuthorsDoug Given, Richard M. Allen, Annemarie S. Baltay, Paul Bodin, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Kenneth Creager, Robert M. de Groot, Lind S. Gee, Egill Hauksson, Thomas H. Heaton, Margaret Hellweg, Jessica R. Murray, Valerie I. Thomas, Douglas Toomey, Thomas S. YelinLessons from Mexico’s earthquake early warning system
The devastating 2017 Puebla quake provides an opportunity to assess how citizens perceive and use the Mexico City earthquake early warning system.AuthorsRichard M. Allen, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Thomas J. Huggins, Scott Miles, Diego OteguiResearch to improve ShakeAlert earthquake early warning products and their utility
Earthquake early warning (EEW) is the rapid detection of an earthquake and issuance of an alert or notification to people and vulnerable systems likely to experience potentially damaging ground shaking. The level of ground shaking that is considered damaging is defined by the specific application; for example, manufacturing equipment may experience damage at a lower intensity ground shaking than wAuthorsElizabeth S. Cochran, Brad T. Aagaard, Richard M. Allen, Jennifer Andrews, Annemarie S. Baltay, Andrew J. Barbour, Paul Bodin, Benjamin A. Brooks, Angela Chung, Brendan W. Crowell, Doug Given, Thomas C. Hanks, J. Renate Hartog, Egill Hauksson, Thomas H. Heaton, Sara McBride, Men-Andrin Meier, Diego Melgar, Sarah E. Minson, Jessica R. Murray, Jennifer A. Strauss, Douglas ToomeyThe limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates
The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictabAuthorsSarah E. Minson, Men-Andrin Meier, Annemarie S. Baltay, Thomas C. Hanks, Elizabeth S. CochranEarthquake Early Warning ShakeAlert System: Testing and certification platform
Earthquake early warning systems provide warnings to end users of incoming moderate to strong ground shaking from earthquakes. An earthquake early warning system, ShakeAlert, is providing alerts to beta end users in the western United States, specifically California, Oregon, and Washington. An essential aspect of the earthquake early warning system is the development of a framework to test modificAuthorsElizabeth S. Cochran, Monica D. Kohler, Doug Given, Stephen Guiwits, Jennifer Andrews, Men-Andrin Meier, Mohammad Ahmad, Ivan Henson, J. Renate Hartog, Deborah SmithEarthquake early Warning ShakeAlert system: West coast wide production prototype
Earthquake early warning (EEW) is an application of seismological science that can give people, as well as mechanical and electrical systems, up to tens of seconds to take protective actions before peak earthquake shaking arrives at a location. Since 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey has been working in collaboration with several partners to develop EEW for the United States. The goal is to createAuthorsMonica D. Kohler, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Doug Given, Stephen Guiwits, Doug Neuhauser, Ivan Hensen, J. Renate Hartog, Paul Bodin, Victor Kress, Stephen Thompson, Claude Felizardo, Jeff Brody, Rayo Bhadha, Stan SchwarzCombining multiple earthquake models in real time for earthquake early warning
The ultimate goal of earthquake early warning (EEW) is to provide local shaking information to users before the strong shaking from an earthquake reaches their location. This is accomplished by operating one or more real‐time analyses that attempt to predict shaking intensity, often by estimating the earthquake’s location and magnitude and then predicting the ground motion from that point source.AuthorsSarah E. Minson, Stephen Wu, James L Beck, Thomas H. Heaton - News
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