LandCarbon Active
Great Plains region of the United States
Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes
Ecosystems of the Western United States
Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes
Ecosystems of the eastern United States
Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes
Ecosystems of Alaska
Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes
The biologic carbon sequestration assessment program (LandCarbon) investigates ecosystem carbon cycle problems and develops carbon management science and monitoring methods.
Specifically, LandCarbon is focused on the following research areas:
- Synthesize and assess current and potential carbon balance (stocks and fluxes) in major terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems
- Evaluate the effects of both natural and anthropogenic driving forces on ecosystem carbon balance and greenhouse gas fluxes
- Develop carbon monitoring methods and capabilities
- Conduct research and provide science support for increasing carbon sequestration in land management policies and practices
Since 2010, the USGS has:
- Released a methodology for the national assessment of biologic carbon sequestration (USGS Scientific Investigations Report 5233)
- Completed the assessment for the conterminous United States divided into three regional reports (USGS Professional Papers 1787- Great Plains, 1797- Western US, and 1804- Eastern US), and Alaska and Hawaii separately
- Developed and released a LandCarbon website for data distribution and visualization.
Additionally, a number of research papers have been published in leading journals by USGS and academic scientists supported by the program.
Going forward, the new focus of the program is in two priority areas:
- Synthesis and assessment linking ecosystem carbon balance with natural and anthropogenic processes as well as carbon management
- Carbon sequestration application studies in support of Department of the Interior land management decision making
Activities:
Aquatic Systems
The USGS investigates the amount of carbon burial, emissions, and export taking place in the aquatic ecosystems of the United States. Data analysis and modeling are used to identify the controls on greenhouse gas emissions from lakes and rivers, as well as the magnitude of carbon burial in sediments. Linkages between land use and carbon cycling in nearby aquatic habitats are being characterized in order to understand the effects of human activity such as agriculture and development on aquatic carbon cycling. Carbon export to the coastal ocean is also being quantified, and ecosystem models will describe the movement of continental carbon exports through the coastal food web.
Inland aquatic ecosystems (rivers, lakes, ponds, and reservoirs) play several important roles in the carbon cycle. Carbon that has been fixed via terrestrial primary production and processed in the soil is exported to surface water as both organic and mineral carbon compounds. In the aquatic environment, organic carbon compounds are respired (converted to CO2) by bacteria. This process can lead to a greater concentration of CO2 in the water than in the air (supersaturation), which results in "degassing", or emission of CO2 to the atmosphere. At the same time, plants and algae in aquatic ecosystems take up CO2 for photosynthesis. As it moves through the food web, most of this carbon is ultimately converted back to CO2 by respiration, but some of it can be buried in sediments. Anaerobic decomposition of carbon buried in sediments can create CH4, another greenhouse gas, which can also escape to the atmosphere. River systems transport carbon, originating from both terrestrial and aquatic systems, to the coastal ocean, where it is then further processed (emitted as greenhouse gases, buried in sediments, or transported offshore).
Carbon Sequestration Assessment
According to the newly completed the 2nd State of Carbon Cycle Report (), Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the United States are a significant carbon sinks, taking up approximately a quarter of the nation’s CO2 emissions. The ecosystem carbon sink can be highly variable over space and time due to natural disturbances and land use decisions (Goodale and others, 2002)). Fire, for example, is a disturbance that affects a forest's carbon storage and has effects of both releasing CO2 and CH4 back into the atmosphere and strengthening a forest ecosystem's ability to increase sequestration over the long-term. USGS conducts synthesis and assessment of carbon sequestration processes and long-term balances of major ecosystems including forests, croplands, grasslands, and wetlands in relation to both natural and anthropogenic driving forces.
Ecosystem Disturbances – Wildland Fire
Ecosystem disturbance modeling and emission estimation produces spatially-explicit forecasts of fire patterns, and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions for U.S biomes. At the heart of the approach is a series of statistical and process-based models, coded in C++, that simulate processes of fire ignition, spread, and emissions. Patterns of historic ignitions are characterized using logistic regressions that relate ignition location to daily fuel moisture conditions, as well as, vegetation type and urban extent. These ignition models are used to determine when and where ignitions are located under stable or changing climate scenarios. Once ignitions are located, the area burned is determined by allowing each ignition to spread using the minimum travel time algorithm. After fire spread is complete, emissions are calculated using the FOFEM and CONSUME models.
Vegetation, fuels, daily weather, and fuel moisture data are critical to disturbance simulations. Vegetation and fuels data are provided by the LANDFIRE project. The daily weather data we use have 12 km spatial resolution and span from 1950 to 2010. For future climate-change scenarios, we randomly resample annual sequences of historic daily weather and rescale them to match the monthly means provided by downscaled climate-change forecasts. Fuel moistures and fire behavior indices are calculated for both historic and forecast daily weather using the National Fire Danger Rating System and then used as predictor variables for ignition locations, fire spread, and fire emissions.
Future Scenarios and land use modeling
To study potential changes in land use, land cover and land management in the future United States, USGS has incorporated probable scenarios as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fourth and fifth assessment reports (AR4 and AR5), which lists major driving forces of future emissions, including changes in demographic, technological and economic developments. To be able to incorporate these scenario assumptions into ongoing research and to produce nationally and regionally unique future potential land use and land cover scenarios, data on historical land-cover change from USGS and information derived from a global integrated assessment model are used in conjunction with expert analysis to 1) downscale scenario narrative storylines to national and sub-national scales, and 2) develop quantitative regional projections of LULC change for major land-use sectors of the conterminous United States. Results of this process are a set of quantitative future scenarios for specific land use and land cover classes, unique at both national and regional scales.
There are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this uncertainty, we developed the Land-Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux. The LUCAS model combines a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) for modeling land-change with a stock and flow model for modeling carbon dynamics, within a scenario-based framework. These two models were developed in conjunction within the ST-SIM modeling environment to provide a complete package for testing a range of future scenarios of land-use change and their impacts on carbon dynamics. Land-use change scenarios developed from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as well as scenarios developed from historical land-use change datasets that include a range of mitigation and adaptation policies can be applied in the model.
Below are data releases associated with this project.
Below are publications associated with this project.
Typha (cattail) invasion in North American wetlands: Biology, regional problems, impacts, ecosystem services, and management
Hydrologic lag effects on wetland greenhouse gas fluxes
Effects of 21st century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California
Negligible cycling of terrestrial carbon in many lakes of the arid circumpolar landscape
Water salinity and inundation control soil carbon decomposition during salt marsh restoration: An incubation experiment
Freshwater tidal forests and estuarine wetlands may confer early life growth advantages for delta-reared Chinook Salmon
Investigating lake-area dynamics across a permafrost-thaw spectrum using airborne electromagnetic surveys and remote sensing time-series data in Yukon Flats, Alaska
Development of perennial thaw zones in boreal hillslopes enhances potential mobilization of permafrost carbon
Salt marsh ecosystem restructuring enhances elevation resilience and carbon storage during accelerating relative sea-level rise
Estimating the societal benefits of carbon dioxide sequestration through peatland restoration
Estimating soil respiration in a subalpine landscape using point, terrain, climate and greenness data
Tidal Wetlands and Estuaries
- Overview
The biologic carbon sequestration assessment program (LandCarbon) investigates ecosystem carbon cycle problems and develops carbon management science and monitoring methods.
Specifically, LandCarbon is focused on the following research areas:
- Synthesize and assess current and potential carbon balance (stocks and fluxes) in major terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems
- Evaluate the effects of both natural and anthropogenic driving forces on ecosystem carbon balance and greenhouse gas fluxes
- Develop carbon monitoring methods and capabilities
- Conduct research and provide science support for increasing carbon sequestration in land management policies and practices
Since 2010, the USGS has:
- Released a methodology for the national assessment of biologic carbon sequestration (USGS Scientific Investigations Report 5233)
- Completed the assessment for the conterminous United States divided into three regional reports (USGS Professional Papers 1787- Great Plains, 1797- Western US, and 1804- Eastern US), and Alaska and Hawaii separately
- Developed and released a LandCarbon website for data distribution and visualization.
Additionally, a number of research papers have been published in leading journals by USGS and academic scientists supported by the program.
Going forward, the new focus of the program is in two priority areas:
- Synthesis and assessment linking ecosystem carbon balance with natural and anthropogenic processes as well as carbon management
- Carbon sequestration application studies in support of Department of the Interior land management decision making
Activities:
Aquatic Systems
The USGS investigates the amount of carbon burial, emissions, and export taking place in the aquatic ecosystems of the United States. Data analysis and modeling are used to identify the controls on greenhouse gas emissions from lakes and rivers, as well as the magnitude of carbon burial in sediments. Linkages between land use and carbon cycling in nearby aquatic habitats are being characterized in order to understand the effects of human activity such as agriculture and development on aquatic carbon cycling. Carbon export to the coastal ocean is also being quantified, and ecosystem models will describe the movement of continental carbon exports through the coastal food web.
Inland aquatic ecosystems (rivers, lakes, ponds, and reservoirs) play several important roles in the carbon cycle. Carbon that has been fixed via terrestrial primary production and processed in the soil is exported to surface water as both organic and mineral carbon compounds. In the aquatic environment, organic carbon compounds are respired (converted to CO2) by bacteria. This process can lead to a greater concentration of CO2 in the water than in the air (supersaturation), which results in "degassing", or emission of CO2 to the atmosphere. At the same time, plants and algae in aquatic ecosystems take up CO2 for photosynthesis. As it moves through the food web, most of this carbon is ultimately converted back to CO2 by respiration, but some of it can be buried in sediments. Anaerobic decomposition of carbon buried in sediments can create CH4, another greenhouse gas, which can also escape to the atmosphere. River systems transport carbon, originating from both terrestrial and aquatic systems, to the coastal ocean, where it is then further processed (emitted as greenhouse gases, buried in sediments, or transported offshore).
Carbon Sequestration Assessment
According to the newly completed the 2nd State of Carbon Cycle Report (), Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the United States are a significant carbon sinks, taking up approximately a quarter of the nation’s CO2 emissions. The ecosystem carbon sink can be highly variable over space and time due to natural disturbances and land use decisions (Goodale and others, 2002)). Fire, for example, is a disturbance that affects a forest's carbon storage and has effects of both releasing CO2 and CH4 back into the atmosphere and strengthening a forest ecosystem's ability to increase sequestration over the long-term. USGS conducts synthesis and assessment of carbon sequestration processes and long-term balances of major ecosystems including forests, croplands, grasslands, and wetlands in relation to both natural and anthropogenic driving forces.
Ecosystem Disturbances – Wildland Fire
Ecosystem disturbance modeling and emission estimation produces spatially-explicit forecasts of fire patterns, and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions for U.S biomes. At the heart of the approach is a series of statistical and process-based models, coded in C++, that simulate processes of fire ignition, spread, and emissions. Patterns of historic ignitions are characterized using logistic regressions that relate ignition location to daily fuel moisture conditions, as well as, vegetation type and urban extent. These ignition models are used to determine when and where ignitions are located under stable or changing climate scenarios. Once ignitions are located, the area burned is determined by allowing each ignition to spread using the minimum travel time algorithm. After fire spread is complete, emissions are calculated using the FOFEM and CONSUME models.Vegetation, fuels, daily weather, and fuel moisture data are critical to disturbance simulations. Vegetation and fuels data are provided by the LANDFIRE project. The daily weather data we use have 12 km spatial resolution and span from 1950 to 2010. For future climate-change scenarios, we randomly resample annual sequences of historic daily weather and rescale them to match the monthly means provided by downscaled climate-change forecasts. Fuel moistures and fire behavior indices are calculated for both historic and forecast daily weather using the National Fire Danger Rating System and then used as predictor variables for ignition locations, fire spread, and fire emissions.
Future Scenarios and land use modeling
To study potential changes in land use, land cover and land management in the future United States, USGS has incorporated probable scenarios as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fourth and fifth assessment reports (AR4 and AR5), which lists major driving forces of future emissions, including changes in demographic, technological and economic developments. To be able to incorporate these scenario assumptions into ongoing research and to produce nationally and regionally unique future potential land use and land cover scenarios, data on historical land-cover change from USGS and information derived from a global integrated assessment model are used in conjunction with expert analysis to 1) downscale scenario narrative storylines to national and sub-national scales, and 2) develop quantitative regional projections of LULC change for major land-use sectors of the conterminous United States. Results of this process are a set of quantitative future scenarios for specific land use and land cover classes, unique at both national and regional scales.There are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this uncertainty, we developed the Land-Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux. The LUCAS model combines a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) for modeling land-change with a stock and flow model for modeling carbon dynamics, within a scenario-based framework. These two models were developed in conjunction within the ST-SIM modeling environment to provide a complete package for testing a range of future scenarios of land-use change and their impacts on carbon dynamics. Land-use change scenarios developed from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as well as scenarios developed from historical land-use change datasets that include a range of mitigation and adaptation policies can be applied in the model.
- Data
Below are data releases associated with this project.
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 145Typha (cattail) invasion in North American wetlands: Biology, regional problems, impacts, ecosystem services, and management
Typha is an iconic wetland plant found worldwide. Hybridization and anthropogenic disturbances have resulted in large increases in Typha abundance in wetland ecosystems throughout North America at a cost to native floral and faunal biodiversity. As demonstrated by three regional case studies, Typha is capable of rapidly colonizing habitats and forming monodominant vegetation stands due to traits sAuthorsSheel Bansal, Shane Lishawa, Sue Newman, Brian Tangen, Douglas Wilcox, Dennis Albert, Michael J. Anteau, Michael J Chimney, Ryann L. Cressey, Edward S. DeKeyser, Kenneth J Elgersam, Sarah A Finkelstein, Joanna Freeland, Richard Grosshans, Page E. Klug, Daniel J Larkin, Beth A. Lawrence, George Linz, Joy Marburger, Gregory B. Noe, Clint R.V. Otto, Nicholas Reo, Jennifer Richards, Curtis J. Richardson, LeRoy Rodgers, Amy J Shrank, Dan Svedarsky, Steven E. Travis, Nancy Tuchman, Arnold van der Valk, Lisamarie Windham-MyersHydrologic lag effects on wetland greenhouse gas fluxes
Hydrologic margins of wetlands are narrow, transient zones between inundated and dry areas. As water levels fluctuate, the dynamic hydrology at margins may impact wetland greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes that are sensitive to soil saturation. The Prairie Pothole Region of North America consists of millions of seasonally-ponded wetlands that are ideal for studying hydrologic transition states. Using a lAuthorsBrian Tangen, Sheel BansalEffects of 21st century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California
Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO2. However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial ecoAuthorsBenjamin M. Sleeter, David Marvin, D. Richard Cameron, Paul Selmants, LeRoy Westerling, Jason R. Kreitler, Colin Daniel, Jinxun Liu, Tamara S. WilsonNegligible cycling of terrestrial carbon in many lakes of the arid circumpolar landscape
High-latitude environments store nearly half of the planet’s below-ground organic carbon (OC), mostly in perennially frozen permafrost soils. Climatic changes drive increased export of terrestrial OC into many aquatic networks, yet the role that circumpolar lakes play in mineralizing this carbon is unclear. Here we directly evaluate ecosystem-scale OC cycling for lakes of interior Alaska. This ariAuthorsMatthew J. Bogard, Catherine D. Kuhn, Sarah Ellen Johnston, Robert G. Striegl, Gordon W. Holtgrieve, Mark M. Dornblaser, Robert G. M. Spencer, Kimberly P. Wickland, David E. ButmanWater salinity and inundation control soil carbon decomposition during salt marsh restoration: An incubation experiment
Coastal wetlands are a significant carbon (C) sink since they store carbon in anoxic soils. This ecosystem service is impacted by hydrologic alteration and management of these coastal habitats. Efforts to restore tidal flow to former salt marshes have increased in recent decades and are generally associated with alteration of water inundation levels and salinity. This study examined the effect ofAuthorsFaming Wang, Kevin D. Kroeger, Meagan Gonneea Eagle, John W. Pohlman, Jianwu TangFreshwater tidal forests and estuarine wetlands may confer early life growth advantages for delta-reared Chinook Salmon
Large river deltas are complex ecosystems that are believed to play a pivotal role in promoting the early marine growth and survival of threatened Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. We used a fish bioenergetics model to assess the functional role of multiple delta habitats across a gradient of salinities and vegetation types, where consumption and growth rate potential (GRP) were consideredAuthorsMelanie J. Davis, Isa Woo, Christopher S. Ellings, Sayre Hodgson, David A. Beauchamp, Glynnis Nakai, Susan E. W. De La CruzInvestigating lake-area dynamics across a permafrost-thaw spectrum using airborne electromagnetic surveys and remote sensing time-series data in Yukon Flats, Alaska
Lakes in boreal lowlands cycle carbon and supply an important source of freshwater for wildlife and migratory waterfowl. The abundance and distribution of these lakes are supported, in part, by permafrost distribution, which is subject to change. Relationships between permafrost thaw and lake dynamics remain poorly known in most boreal regions. Here, new airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data collectAuthorsDavid Rey, Michelle Ann Walvoord, Burke Minsley, Jennifer Rover, Kamini SinghaDevelopment of perennial thaw zones in boreal hillslopes enhances potential mobilization of permafrost carbon
Permafrost thaw alters subsurface flow in boreal regions that in turn influences the magnitude, seasonality, and chemical composition of streamflow. Prediction of these changes is challenged by incomplete knowledge of timing, flowpath depth, and amount of groundwater discharge to streams in response to thaw. One important phenomenon that may affect flow and transport through boreal hillslopes is dAuthorsMichelle A. Walvoord, Clifford I. Voss, Brian A. Ebel, Burke J. MinsleySalt marsh ecosystem restructuring enhances elevation resilience and carbon storage during accelerating relative sea-level rise
Salt marshes respond to sea-level rise through a series of complex and dynamic bio-physical feedbacks. In this study, we found that sea-level rise triggered salt marsh habitat restructuring, with the associated vegetation changes enhancing salt marsh elevation resilience. A continuous record of marsh elevation relative to sea level that includes reconstruction of high-resolution, sub-decadal, marsAuthorsMeagan Gonneea Eagle, Christopher V. Maio, Kevin D. Kroeger, Andrea D. Hawkes, Jordan Mora, Richard Sullivan, Stephanie Madsen, Richard M. Buzard, Niamh Cahill, Jeffrey P. DonnellyEstimating the societal benefits of carbon dioxide sequestration through peatland restoration
The Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge (GDS) is a forested peatland that provides a number of ecosystem services including carbon (C) sequestration. We modeled and analyzed the potential capacity of the GDS to sequester C under four management scenarios: no management, no management with catastrophic fire, current management, and increased management. The analysis uses the Land Use and CaAuthorsEmily J. Pindilli, Rachel Sleeter, Dianna M. HoganEstimating soil respiration in a subalpine landscape using point, terrain, climate and greenness data
Landscape carbon (C) flux estimates are necessary for assessing the ability of terrestrial ecosystems to buffer further increases in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Advances in remote sensing have allowed for coarse-scale estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP) (e.g., MODIS 17), yet efforts to assess spatial patterns in respiration lag behind those of GPP. Here, we demonstrateAuthorsErin Michele Berryman, Melanie K. Vanderhoof, John B. Bradford, Todd Hawbaker, Paul D. Henne, Sean P. Burns, John M. Frank, Richard A. Birdsey, Michael G. RyanTidal Wetlands and Estuaries
1. The top 1 m of tidal wetland soils and estuarine sediments of North America contains 1,886 ± 1046 teragrams of carbon (Tg C). [High confidence, Very likely] 2. Soil carbon accumulation rate (i.e., sediment burial) in North American tidal wetlands is currently 9 ± 5 Tg C per year and estuarine carbon burial is 5 ± 3 Tg C per year. [High confidence, Likely] 3. The lateral flux of carbon from tidaAuthorsLisamarie Windham-Myers, Wei Jun Cai, Simone Alin, Andreas Andersson, Joseph Crosswell, Kenneth Dunton, Jose Martin Hernandez-Ayon, Maria Herrmann, Audra L. Hinson, Charles Hopkinson, Jennifer Howard, Xinping Hu, Sara H. Knox, Kevin Kroeger, David Lagomasino, Patrick Megonigal, Raymond Najjar, May-Linn Paulsen, Dorothy Peteet, Emily Pidgeon, Karina Schafer, Elizabeth Watson, Zhaohui Aleck Wang, Maria Tzortziou