A landscape approach for identifying potential reestablishment sites for extirpated stream fishes: an example with Arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus) in Michigan

Habitat degradation combined with climate change increases the threat of extinction for stream fishes. In response to these threats, efforts to reestablish species within formerly occupied streams or translocation to suitable areas may be effective conservation strategies. In the absence of historic species presence data, identifying locations where suitable habitat exists across many fluvial habitats may limit the effectiveness of reestablishments. We present an approach that ranks habitat for stream fish reestablishment over large areas using best available information. Using the locally extirpated Arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus) in Michigan, USA as an example, we integrate information on species preferences and relationships between species with similar habitat requirements and landscape predictors of habitat to rank stream suitability. We find that unfragmented streams throughout the historical range of Arctic grayling and areas previously unoccupied by the species are potential locations for conservation action. However, we note that projected increases in summer water temperatures may reduce the amount of thermally suitable habitat in some top-ranked locations by up to 30%. Given its inherent flexibility in data requirements, our landscape-level approach may be a valuable tool that supports planning for species reestablishment.