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A systematic review of potential habitat suitability for the jaguar Panthera onca in central Arizona and New Mexico, USA

March 16, 2021

In April 2019, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) released its recovery plan for the jaguar Panthera onca after several decades of discussion, litigation and controversy about the status of the species in the USA. The USFWS estimated that potential habitat, south of the Interstate-10 highway in Arizona and New Mexico, had a carrying capacity of c. six jaguars, and so focused its recovery programme on areas south of the USA–Mexico border. Here we present a systematic review of the modelling and assessment efforts over the last 25 years, with a focus on areas north of Interstate-10 in Arizona and New Mexico, outside the recovery unit considered by the USFWS. Despite differences in data inputs, methods, and analytical extent, the nine previous studies found support for potential suitable jaguar habitat in the central mountain ranges of Arizona and New Mexico. Applying slightly modified versions of the USFWS model and recalculating an Arizona-focused model over both states provided additional confirmation. Extending the area of consideration also substantially raised the carrying capacity of habitats in Arizona and New Mexico, from six to 90 or 151 adult jaguars, using the modified USFWS models. This review demonstrates the crucial ways in which choosing the extent of analysis influences the conclusions of a conservation plan. More importantly, it opens a new opportunity for jaguar conservation in North America that could help address threats from habitat losses, climate change and border infrastructure.

Citation Information

Publication Year 2021
Title A systematic review of potential habitat suitability for the jaguar Panthera onca in central Arizona and New Mexico, USA
DOI 10.1017/S0030605320000459
Authors Eric W Sanderson, Kim Fisher, Rob Peters, Jon P. Beckmann, Bryan Bird, Curtis Bradley, Juan Bravo, Melissa M. Grigione, James Hatten, Carlos Gonzalez, Kurt Menke, Jennie Miller, Philip Miller, Cristina Mormorunni, Michael Robinson, Robert E Thomas, Sharon Wilcox
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title Oryx
Series Number
Index ID 70218843
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization Western Fisheries Research Center

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