Wildland Fire Science

Publications

Filter Total Items: 287
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Year Published: 2019

Transient population dynamics impede restoration and may promote ecosystem transformation after disturbance

The apparent failure of ecosystems to recover from increasingly widespread disturbance is a global concern. Despite growing focus on factors inhibiting resilience and restoration, we still know very little about how demographic and population processes influence recovery. Using inverse and forward demographic modelling of 531 post‐fire sagebrush...

Shriver, Robert K.; Andrews, Caitlin M.; Arkle, Robert; Barnard, David; Duniway, Michael C.; Germino, Matthew J.; Pilliod, David S.; Pyke, David A.; Welty, Justin L.; Bradford, John B.

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Year Published: 2019

A 4000-year history of debris flows in north-central Washington State, U.S.A.: Preliminary results from trenching and surficial geologic mapping at the Pope Creek fan

Long-term records of the magnitude and frequency of debris flows on fans are rare, but such records provide critical information needed for debris-flow hazard and risk assessments. This study explores the history of debris flows on a fan with seasonally inhabited cabins at Pope Creek along the Entiat River about 48 km upstream from the town of...

Coe, Jeffrey A.; Bessette-Kirton, Erin; Slaughter, Stephen; Rengers, Francis K.; Contreras, Trevor A.; Michelson, Katherin A; Taylor, Emily; Kean, Jason W.; Jacobacci, Kara; Hanson, Molly A
Coe, J.A., Bessette-Kirton, E.K., Slaughter, S.L., Rengers, F.K., Contreras, T.A., Mickelson, K.A., Taylor, E.M., Kean, J.W., Jacobacci, K.E., Hanson, M.A., 2019, A 4000-year history of debris flows in north-central Washington State, U.S.A.: preliminary results from trenching and surficial geologic mapping at the Pope Creek fan, in Kean, J.W., Coe, J.A., Santi, P.M., and Guillen, B.K., eds., Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Monitoring, Modeling, and Assessment, Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Debris Flow Hazards Mitigation, Golden, Colorado, p. 613-620.

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Year Published: 2019

Exploring controls on debris-flow surge velocity and peak discharge at Chalk Cliffs, Colorado, USA

We present a series of debris-flow events and use combined sensor and video data to explore how sediment concentration and triggering rainfall intensity affect the velocity and discharge of debris-flow surges generated by surface-water runoff. We analyze an initial data set of 49 surges from four debris-flow events recorded by a monitoring system...

Smith, Joel B.; Kean, Jason W.; Coe, Jeffrey A.
Smith, J.B., Kean, J.W., and Coe, J.A., 2019, Exploring controls on debris-flow surge velocity and peak discharge at Chalk Cliffs, Colorado, USA, in Kean, J.W., Coe, J.A., Santi, P.M., and Guillen, B.K., eds., Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Monitoring, Modeling, and Assessment, Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Debris Flow Hazards Mitigation, Golden, Colorado, p. 199-206.

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Year Published: 2019

An evaluation of debris-flow runout model accuracy and complexity in Montecito, CA: Towards a framework for regional inundation-hazard forecasting

Numerous debris-flow inundation models have been applied retroactively to noteworthy events around the world. While such studies can be useful in identifying controlling factors, calibrating model parameters, and assessing future hazards in specific study areas, model parameters tailored to individual events can be difficult to apply regionally....

Bessette-Kirton, Erin; Kean, Jason W.; Coe, Jeffrey A.; Rengers, Francis K.; Staley, Dennis M.
Bessette-Kirton, E.K., Kean, J.W., Coe, J.A., Rengers, F.K., Staley, D.M., 2019, An evaluation of debris-flow runout model accuracy and complexity in Montecito, California: Towards a framework for regional inundation-hazard forecasting, in Kean, J.W., Coe, J.A., Santi, P.M., and Guillen, B.K., eds., Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Monitoring, Modeling, and Assessment, Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Debris Flow Hazards Mitigation, Golden, Colorado p. 257-264.

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Year Published: 2019

Looking through the window of disturbance at post-wildfire debris-flow hazards

The extreme heat from wildfire alters soil properties and incinerates vegetation, leading to changes in infiltration capacity, ground cover, soil erodibility, and rainfall interception. These changes promote increases in runoff and sediment transport that increase the likelihood of runoff-generated debris flows. Over a period of several years,...

McGuire, Luke; Rengers, Francis K.; Kean, Jason W.; Staley, Dennis M.; Tang, Hui; Youberg, Ann

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Year Published: 2019

Climate and disturbance influence self-sustaining stand dynamics of aspen (Populus tremuloides) near its range margin

Species that are primarily seral may form stable (self-sustaining) communities under certain disturbance regimes or environmental conditions, yet such populations may also be particularly vulnerable to ecological change. Aspen (Populus spp.) are generally considered seral throughout the northern hemisphere, including P. tremuloides, the most...

Shinneman, Douglas J.; McIlroy, Susan
Shinneman, D.J., McIlroy, S.K., 2019, Climate and disturbance influence self-sustaining stand dynamics of aspen (Populus tremuloides) near its range margin: Ecological Applications, p. online, https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1948.

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Year Published: 2019

Soil characteristics are associated with gradients of big sagebrush canopy structure after disturbance

Reestablishing shrub canopy cover after disturbance in semi-arid ecosystems, such as sagebrush steppe, is essential to provide wildlife habitat and restore ecosystem functioning. While several studies have explored the effects of landscape and climate factors on the success or failure of sagebrush seeding, the influence of soil properties on...

Barnard, David; Germino, Matthew J.; Arkle, Robert; Bradford, John; Duniway, Michael; Pilliod, David; Pyke, David; Shriver, Robert; Welty, Justin

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Year Published: 2019

Post-fire rockfall and debris-flow hazard zonation in the Eagle Creek Fire burn area, Columbia River Gorge, Oregon: a tool for emergency managers and first responders

The Eagle Creek Fire engulfed 48,832 acres (196 km2) within the Columbia River Gorge, Oregon beginning September 2nd and was 100% contained by November 30th, 2017. The Columbia River Gorge area is steep and heavily forested characterized by cliffs and flanking talus slopes, receiving > 100 inches (> 254 cm) of precipitation annually. The...

Calhoun, Nancy C.; Burns, William J.; Hayduk, S.H.; Staley, Dennis M.; Kean, Jason W.
Calhoun, N.C., Burns, W.J., Hay, S., Staley, D.M., and Kean, J.W. (2019), Post-fire rockfall and debris-flow hazard zonation in the Eagle Creek fire burn area, Columbia River Gorge, Oregon: A tool for emergency managers and first responders, in Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Monitoring, Modeling, and Assessment, edited by Kean, J.W., Coe, J.A., Santi, P.M., and Guillen, B.K., Association of Environmental and Engineering Geologists, Special Publication #28, p. 581-588.

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Year Published: 2019

Taking the pulse of debris flows: Extracting debris-flow dynamics from good vibrations in southern California and central Colorado

The destructive nature of debris flows makes it difficult to quantify flow dynamics with direct instrumentation. For this reason, seismic sensors placed safely away from the flow path are often used to identify the timing and speed of debris flows. While seismic sensors have proven to be a valuable tool for event detection and early warning, their...

Michel, A.; Kean, Jason W.; Smith, Joel B.; Allstadt, Kate E.; Coe, Jeffrey A.
Michel, A., Kean, J.W., Smith, J.B., Allstadt, K., and Coe, J.A. (2019), Taking the pulse of debris flows: extracting debris-flow dynamics from good vibrations in southern California and central Colorado, in Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Monitoring, Modeling, and Assessment, edited by Kean, J.W., Coe, J.A., Santi, P.M., and Guillen, B.K., Association of Environmental and Engineering Geologists, Special Publication #28, p. 154-161.

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Year Published: 2019

Integrating anthropogenic factors into regional-scale species distribution models — A novel application in the imperiled sagebrush biome

Species distribution models (SDM) that rely on regional-scale environmental variables will play a key role in forecasting species occurrence in the face of climate change. However, in the Anthropocene, a number of local-scale anthropogenic variables, including wildfire history, land-use change, invasive species, and ecological restoration...

Requena-Mullor, Juan M.; Maguire, Kaitlin C.; Shinneman, Douglas J.; Caughlin, T. Trevor

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Year Published: 2019

Effects of a changing climate on the hydrological cycle in cold desert ecosystems of the Great Basin and Columbia Plateau

Climate change is already resulting in changes in cold desert ecosystems, lending urgency to the need to understand climate change effects and develop effective adaptation strategies. In this review, we synthesize information on changes in climate and hydrologic processes during the last century for the Great Basin and Columbia Plateau, and...

Snyder, Keirith A.; Evers, Louisa B.; Chambers, Jeanne C.; Dunham, Jason B.; Bradford, John B.; Loik, Michael E.

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Year Published: 2019

Inundation, flow dynamics, and damage in the 9 January 2018 Montecito Debris-Flow Event, California, USA: Opportunities and challenges for post-wildfire risk assessment

Shortly before the beginning of the winter rainy season, one of the largest fires in California history (Thomas Fire) substantially increased the susceptibility of steep slopes in Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties to debris flows. On January 9, 2018, before the fire was fully contained, an intense burst of rain fell on the portion of the burn...

Kean, Jason W.; Staley, Dennis M.; Lancaster, Jeremy T.; Rengers, Francis K.; Swanson, Brian J.; Coe, Jeffrey A.; Hernandez, Janis; Sigman, Aaron; Allstadt, Kate E.; Lindsay, Donald N.