Adam Terando, Ph.D.
Adam Terando is a USGS Research Ecologist (Climate Impacts) with the Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center. His work focuses on the impacts of global change on ecosystems in the Southeast and U.S. Caribbean, and the complex human-environment relationships that drive these processes.
A geographer and climatologist by training, Dr. Terando received his Ph.D. in Geography from Pennsylvania State University where he examined the relationship between climate extremes and future crop yields in the U.S. At the Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, the overarching goal of his research is to gain insights that will benefit the public and natural resource managers in their efforts to understand and adapt to rapid global climate and land use changes. Currently, his work focuses on four research themes:
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Uncertainty characterization and quantification for global change predictions
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Global Climate Model Downscaling
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Future urbanization and land use change
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Wildfires, prescribed fire, and climate change
Education and Certifications
Ph.D. in Geography, Pennsylvania State University
Science and Products
Conservation Adaptation Planning for Landscape and Climate Change in the Southeast
Testing the Impacts of Sun Exposure and Impervious Surfaces on the Accuracy of Temperature Sensors
Modeling Future Temperature and Precipitation for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Caribbean
Webinar: Geo Data Portal: Translating Climate Data for Geographic Analysis
Assessing Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems in the Southeastern U.S.
Evaluating Downscaled Climate Models for Projecting Future Changes in the Southeast
SERAP: Assessment of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Terrestrial Species
SERAP: Comprehensive Web-based Climate Change Projections: Downscaled Maps and Data
Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP): Assessing Global Change Impacts on Natural and Human Systems in the Southeast
SERAP: Modeling of Global and Land Use Change Impacts
Development of the Geo Data Portal to Make Climate Projections and Scientific Data More Accessible to Users
Shifting precipitation regimes alter the phenology and population dynamics of low latitude ectotherms
Shifting correlations among multiple aspects of weather complicate predicting future demography of a threatened species
Linking demographic rates to local environmental conditions: Empirical data to support climate adaptation strategies for Eleutherodactylus frogs
Climate change is creating a mismatch between protected areas and suitable habitats for frogs and birds in Puerto Rico
Robust projections of future fire probability for the conterminous United States
Tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America: The northward range expansion of tropical organisms in response to warming winter temperatures
Ecology of urban climates: The need for landscape biophysics in cities
High‐resolution dynamically downscaled rainfall and temperature projections for ecological life zones within Puerto Rico and for the U.S. Virgin Islands
Using information from global climate models to inform policymaking—The role of the U.S. Geological Survey
Climate change projected to reduce prescribed burning opportunities in the south-eastern United States
Do empirical observations support commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses? A systematic review protocol
Forecasting water demand across a rapidly urbanizing region
Science and Products
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Conservation Adaptation Planning for Landscape and Climate Change in the Southeast
The Southeast is currently undergoing high rates of population growth, urbanization, and land use change while also experiencing climatic changes. These changes are and will continue to threaten wildlife and their habitats. Most existing conservation programs and activities, however, focus on maintaining systems in their current condition, or returning them to a historic state, rather than enablinTesting the Impacts of Sun Exposure and Impervious Surfaces on the Accuracy of Temperature Sensors
To better understand the impacts of climate change, ecological studies are increasingly addressing the different effects of temperature on organisms and ecosystems. To measure air temperature at biologically relevant scales in the field, ecologists often use small, portable temperature sensors. These sensors must be shielded from solar radiation to provide accurate temperature measurements, but aModeling Future Temperature and Precipitation for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Caribbean
While 21st century temperatures are projected to increase in Puerto Rico and the broader U.S. Caribbean (whose geography is contained within the Caribbean Landscape Conservation Cooperative, or CLCC), the low variability and already high annual average temperatures suggest that the largest climate-related impact on ecosystems and water resources is more likely to be through changes in the timing,Webinar: Geo Data Portal: Translating Climate Data for Geographic Analysis
View this webinar to learn about the Geo Data PortalAssessing Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems in the Southeastern U.S.
The southeastern U.S. contains a unique diversity of ecosystems that provide important benefits, including habitat for rare wildlife and plants, improved water quality, and recreation opportunities. Understanding how climate change will affect these ecosystems is vital for knowing how best to protect them and the services they supply. The goal of this project was to assess the climate change vulneEvaluating Downscaled Climate Models for Projecting Future Changes in the Southeast
Climate change is likely to have many effects on natural ecosystems in the Southeast U.S. While there is information available to conservation managers and ecologists from the global climate models (GCMs), this information is at too coarse a resolution for use in vulnerability assessments and decision making. To better assess how climate change could affect multiple sectors, including ecosystems,SERAP: Assessment of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Terrestrial Species
Researchers from North Carolina State University and the USGS integrated models of urbanization and vegetation dynamics with the regional climate models to predict vegetation dynamics and assess how landscape change could impact priority species, including North American land birds. This integrated ensemble of models can be used to predict locations where responses to climate change are most likSERAP: Comprehensive Web-based Climate Change Projections: Downscaled Maps and Data
A team of USGS and academic researchers developed a comprehensive web-based dataset of high-resolution (or ‘downscaled’) climate change projections, enabling scientists and decision-makers to better assess climate related ecosystem impacts. The research team implemented a three-part plan to provide high resolution climate data for the impact modeling community. First, a database was developed of uSoutheast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP): Assessing Global Change Impacts on Natural and Human Systems in the Southeast
The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservSERAP: Modeling of Global and Land Use Change Impacts
The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservDevelopment of the Geo Data Portal to Make Climate Projections and Scientific Data More Accessible to Users
This project brought together a team of researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and universities to develop a comprehensive web-based dataset of high-resolution (or ‘downscaled’) climate change projections, to enable scientists and decision-makers to better assess climate related ecosystem impacts. Currently, scientists and resource managers often find it difficult to use downscaled cli - Data
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Shifting precipitation regimes alter the phenology and population dynamics of low latitude ectotherms
Predicting how species respond to changes in climate is critical to conserving biodiversity. Modeling efforts to date have largely centered on predicting the effects of warming temperatures on temperate species phenology. In and near the tropics, the effects of a warming planet on species phenology are more likely to be driven by changes in the seasonal precipitation cycle rather than temperature.AuthorsErica H Henry, Adam Terando, William F. Morris, Jaret C. Daniels, Nick M. HaddadShifting correlations among multiple aspects of weather complicate predicting future demography of a threatened species
Most studies of the ecological effects of climate change consider only a limited number of weather drivers that could affect populations, though we know that multiple weather drivers can simultaneously affect population growth rate. Multiple drivers could simultaneously increase/decrease one vital rate, or one may increase a vital rate while another decreases the same vital rate. Considering the iAuthorsAllison M Louthan, Jeffrey R. Walters, Adam Terando, Victoria Garcia, William F. MorrisLinking demographic rates to local environmental conditions: Empirical data to support climate adaptation strategies for Eleutherodactylus frogs
Conducting managed species translocations and establishing climate change refugia are adaptation strategies to cope with projected consequences of global warming, but successful implementation requires on-the-ground validation of demographic responses to transient climate conditions. Here we estimated the effect of nine abiotic and biotic factors on local occupancy and an index of abundance (few oAuthorsA.C. Rivera-Burgos, Jaime A. Collazo, Adam Terando, Krishna PacificiClimate change is creating a mismatch between protected areas and suitable habitats for frogs and birds in Puerto Rico
Climate change is altering the spatial distribution of many species around the world. In response, we need to identify and protect suitable areas for a large proportion of the fauna so that they persist through time. This exercise must also evaluate the ability of existing protected areas to provide safe havens for species in the context of climate change. Here, we combined passive acoustic monitoAuthorsMarconi Campos-Cerqueira, Adam Terando, Brent Murray, Jaime A. Collazo, Mitchell AideRobust projections of future fire probability for the conterminous United States
Globally increasing wildfires have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However, providing decision makers with a clear understanding of how future planetary warming could affect fire regimes is complicated by confounding land use factors that influence wildfire and by uncertainty associated with model simulations of climate change. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled GlobalAuthorsPeng Gao, Adam J. Terando, John A Kupfer, J. Morgan Varner, Michael C. Stambaugh, Ting L Lei, J. Kevin HiersTropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America: The northward range expansion of tropical organisms in response to warming winter temperatures
Tropicalization is a term used to describe the transformation of temperate ecosystems by poleward‐moving tropical organisms in response to warming temperatures. In North America, decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events are expected to allow the poleward range expansion of many cold‐sensitive tropical organisms, sometimes at the expense of temperate organisms. AlthougAuthorsMichael Osland, Philip Stevens, Margaret Lamont, Richard Brusca, Kristen Hart, Hardin Waddle, Catherine Langtimm, Caroline Williams, Barry Keim, Adam Terando, Eric Reyier, Katie Marshall, Michael E. Loik, Ross Boucek, Amanda Lewis, Jeffrey A. SeminoffEcology of urban climates: The need for landscape biophysics in cities
In this chapter we will review and evaluate the climatic and ecological parallels between urbanization and climate change, with an emphasis on temperature and its effects on terrestrial ectotherms, a group of organisms thought to be particularly sensitive to climate change. We will summarize patterns of urban warming and how they relate to global climate change projections, then discuss the potentAuthorsElsa Youngsteadt, Adam TerandoHigh‐resolution dynamically downscaled rainfall and temperature projections for ecological life zones within Puerto Rico and for the U.S. Virgin Islands
The weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and a combination of the regional spectral model (RSM) and the Japanese Meteorological Agency Non‐Hydrostatic Model (NHM) were used to dynamically downscale selected CMIP5 global climate models to provide 2‐km projections with hourly model output for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Two 20‐year time slices were downscaled for historical (198AuthorsJared H. Bowden, Adam J. Terando, Vasu Misra, Adrienne Wootten, Amit Bhardwaj, Ryan Boyles, William A. Gould, Jaime A. Collazo, Tanya SperoUsing information from global climate models to inform policymaking—The role of the U.S. Geological Survey
This report provides an overview of model-based climate science in a risk management context. In addition, it summarizes how the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will continue to follow best scientific practices and when and how the results of this research will be delivered to the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) and other stakeholders to inform policymaking. Climate change is a risk managementAuthorsAdam Terando, David Reidmiller, Steven W. Hostetler, Jeremy S. Littell, T. Douglas Beard, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Jayne Belnap, Geoffrey S. PlumleeClimate change projected to reduce prescribed burning opportunities in the south-eastern United States
Prescribed burning is a critical tool for managing wildfire risks and meeting ecological objectives, but its safe and effective application requires that specific meteorological criteria (a ‘burn window’) are met. Here, we evaluate the potential impacts of projected climatic change on prescribed burning in the south-eastern United States by applying a set of burn window criteria that capture tempeAuthorsJohn A Kupfer, Adam J. Terando, Peng Gao, Casey Teske, J Kevin HiersDo empirical observations support commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses? A systematic review protocol
Background Among the most widely anticipated climate-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution in response to changing climate conditions. In particular, a series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged: species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in responAuthorsMadeleine A. Rubenstein, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Shawn Carter, Mitchell Eaton, Ciara Johnson, Abigail Lynch, Brian W. Miller, Toni Lyn Morelli, Mari Angel Rodriguez, Adam Terando, Laura ThompsonForecasting water demand across a rapidly urbanizing region
Urban growth and climate change together complicate planning efforts meant to adapt to increasingly scarce water supplies. Several studies have independently examined the impacts of urban planning and climate change on water demand, but little attention has been given to their combined impact. Here we forecast urban water demand using a Geographically Weighted Regression model informed by socio-ecAuthorsGeorgina M. Sanchez, Adam J. Terando, Jordan W. Smith, Ana María García, Chad R. Wagner, Ross K. Meentemeyer - News