Research Ecologist Adam Terando helps people understand how climate change may affect their communities and ecosystems by using mathematical models to “downscale” large global climate models.
Adam Terando, Ph.D.
Adam Terando is a USGS Research Ecologist (Climate Impacts) with the Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center. His work focuses on the impacts of global change on ecosystems in the Southeast and U.S. Caribbean, and the complex human-environment relationships that drive these processes.
A geographer and climatologist by training, Dr. Terando received his Ph.D. in Geography from Pennsylvania State University where he examined the relationship between climate extremes and future crop yields in the U.S. At the Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, the overarching goal of his research is to gain insights that will benefit the public and natural resource managers in their efforts to understand and adapt to rapid global climate and land use changes. Currently, his work focuses on four research themes:
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Uncertainty characterization and quantification for global change predictions
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Global Climate Model Downscaling
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Future urbanization and land use change
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Wildfires, prescribed fire, and climate change
Education and Certifications
Ph.D. in Geography, Pennsylvania State University
Science and Products
The Long View: Developing a 500-year Climate Adaptation Plan with the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians
Advancing Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for High Elevation and Endangered Lowland Coquí Frogs in the U.S. Caribbean
“Climate-Smart” Fisheries and Aquaculture to Support Resilient Aquatic Ecosystems in Vietnam
Assessing the Climate Vulnerability of Wild Turkeys Across the Southeastern U.S.
Webinar: Climate Adaptation Science to Support Amphibian Conservation in the U.S. Caribbean
Understanding Prescribed Fire Management in the Context of Climate Change and Landscape Transformation
Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate
Strategic Habitat Conservation and Adaptive Strategies for the Conservation of Coqui Frogs in Puerto Rico
Understanding Changing Climate Variables to Clarify Species’ Exposure and Responses to Changing Environments across North America
Understanding Species' Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change: Results from a Systematic National Review
Improving Scenarios of Future Patterns of Urbanization, Climate Adaptation, and Landscape Change in the Southeast
Climate Change Implications for the Conservation of Amphibians in Tropical Environments
Data and Code for Predicting Flood Damage Probability Across the Conterminous United States
Historical and Future Prescribed Burn Windows for the Southeast United States
Land-use and water demand projections (2012 to 2065) under different scenarios of environmental change for North Carolina, South Carolina, and coastal Georgia
Temperature observations from portable data loggers and remote environmental weather stations in North Carolina (2015)
Research Ecologist Adam Terando helps people understand how climate change may affect their communities and ecosystems by using mathematical models to “downscale” large global climate models.
Research Ecologist Adam Terando helps people understand how climate change may affect their communities and ecosystems by using mathematical models to “downscale” large global climate models.
Research Ecologist Adam Terando helps people understand how climate change may affect their communities and ecosystems by using mathematical models to “downscale” large global climate models.
Approaches for using CMIP projections in climate model ensembles to address the ‘hot model’ problem
Spatially interactive modeling of land change identifies location-specific adaptations most likely to lower future flood risk
Tourist perceptions of climate change impacts on mountain ecotourism in southern Mexico
Bayesian weighting of climate models based on climate sensitivity
Minimal shift of eastern wild turkey nesting phenology associated with projected climate change
Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: Substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts
Vulnerability of estuarine systems in the contiguous United States to water quality change under future climate and land-use
Compact or sprawling cities: Has the sparing-sharing framework yielded an ecological verdict?
Climate change weakens the impact of disturbance interval on the growth rate of natural populations of Venus flytrap
Puerto Rico’s state of the climate 2014-2021
Visualizing climate change
Predicting flood damage probability across the conterminous United States
Science and Products
- Science
Filter Total Items: 23
The Long View: Developing a 500-year Climate Adaptation Plan with the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians
Cherokee Peoples have had a sustained presence in the southern Appalachians over the past 12,000 years, with a peak population of about 250,000 people inhabiting approximately 32 million hectares across Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, and the Carolinas. Early contact with European settlers caused drastic population declines and land loss, due to disease, land cessioAdvancing Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for High Elevation and Endangered Lowland Coquí Frogs in the U.S. Caribbean
Amphibians in the US Caribbean, like the well-known coquí frog, are particularly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Coquí frogs are represented by 17 species across Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands and include several mountainous and coastal species that are threatened by extreme heat and drying, loss of coastal freshwater marshes through saltwater intrusion, or both. Over the past decade“Climate-Smart” Fisheries and Aquaculture to Support Resilient Aquatic Ecosystems in Vietnam
The Vietnamese government has committed to climate mitigation and adaptation in support of the Paris Agreement. Implementation of Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to adaptation involves a greater focus on the Mekong River Delta, which is poised to be impacted by sea level rise. Saline intrusion from sea level rise and droughts can affect aquatic ecosystems and the services they pAssessing the Climate Vulnerability of Wild Turkeys Across the Southeastern U.S.
Wild turkey is a culturally and economically important game species that has shown dramatic population declines throughout much of the southeastern U.S. A possible explanation for these declines is that the timing of nesting has shifted to earlier in the year while hunting seasons have remained the same. Wild turkeys are the only gamebird in the contiguous United States that are hunted during theWebinar: Climate Adaptation Science to Support Amphibian Conservation in the U.S. Caribbean
View this webinar to learn more about a climate-informed adaptation strategy for vulnerable species in the Caribbean.Understanding Prescribed Fire Management in the Context of Climate Change and Landscape Transformation
Prescribed burning is a primary tool used to reduce wildfire risk and manage ecosystems to achieve a range of ecological, economic and societal goals. The ability of fire managers to use prescribed fire as a management tool is complicated in regions such as the Southeast because of rapid population growth, extensive suburban development, and a changing climate. Such change restricts prescribed buFuture of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate
Abundant scientific research has characterized the relationships between climate and fire in ecosystems of the United States, and there is substantial evidence that the role of fire in ecosystems is likely to change with a changing climate. Changing fire patterns pose numerous natural resource management challenges and decision makers in natural-resource management increasingly require informationStrategic Habitat Conservation and Adaptive Strategies for the Conservation of Coqui Frogs in Puerto Rico
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources need to develop a plan of action to help the recovery of two endangered species in the genus Eleutherodactylus (commonly known as “coqui”), while also reducing the risk that 14 other coqui species would be added to the Endangered Species list. Prior work by these researchers has identified factUnderstanding Changing Climate Variables to Clarify Species’ Exposure and Responses to Changing Environments across North America
Species across North America are being impacted by changing climate conditions. Plants and animals can respond to these changes in a variety of ways, including by shifting their geographic distributions. Determining whether or not observed biological changes, such as range shifts, are indeed the result of climate change is a key challenge facing natural resource managers and requires clarifying whUnderstanding Species' Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change: Results from a Systematic National Review
Climate change represents one of the foremost drivers of ecological change, yet its documented impacts on biodiversity remain uncertain and complex. Although there have been many published studies on species shifting their geographic ranges in response to climate change, it is still challenging to identify the specific mechanisms and conditions that facilitate range shifts in some species and notImproving Scenarios of Future Patterns of Urbanization, Climate Adaptation, and Landscape Change in the Southeast
Arguably the most direct, intense, and long-lasting modification that humans can make to a landscape is converting rural lands to urbanized areas. As human populations grow, the demand for urbanized areas will increase, and scientists can help natural resource managers plan for these changes by creating models that predict potential patterns of future urbanization. The Southeast U.S. is experienciClimate Change Implications for the Conservation of Amphibians in Tropical Environments
Climate and land use change will strongly affect tropical island ecosystems and trust species (like migratory birds and threatened and endangered species). The risks of significant negative impacts are likely to be higher in these island systems than in many temperate regions of the world because of the limited size of their land masses, high numbers of species that only exist in narrowly defined - Data
Data and Code for Predicting Flood Damage Probability Across the Conterminous United States
This data release contains the associated data described in the related primary publication, "Predicting Flood Damage Probability Across the Conterminous United States" (Collins et al. [2022], see Related External Resources section). Publicly available geospatial datasets and random forest algorithms were used to analyze the spatial distribution and underlying drivers of flood damage probability cHistorical and Future Prescribed Burn Windows for the Southeast United States
Prescribed burning is a critical tool for managing wildfire risks and meeting ecological objectives, but its safe and effective application requires that specific meteorological criteria are met. This dataset contains results from a study examining the potential impacts of projected climatic change on prescribed burning in the southeastern United States. A set of burn window criteria (suitable weaLand-use and water demand projections (2012 to 2065) under different scenarios of environmental change for North Carolina, South Carolina, and coastal Georgia
Urban growth and climate change together complicate planning efforts meant to adapt to increasingly scarce water supplies. Several studies have shown the impacts of urban planning and climate change separately, but little attention has been given to their combined impact on long-term urban water demand forecasting. Here we coupled land and climate change projections with empirically-derived coeffiTemperature observations from portable data loggers and remote environmental weather stations in North Carolina (2015)
Temperature data were collected from ~40 portable data (temperature) loggers and two weather stations located in central North Carolina, USA during August 2015. In addition to temperature, solar radiation and wind speed data were recorded at one of the sites to estimate the effects of these climate variables on sensor bias. - Multimedia
Climate Science Champions Season 3: Adam Terando, Research ScientistClimate Science Champions Season 3: Adam Terando, Research ScientistClimate Science Champions Season 3: Adam Terando, Research Scientist
Research Ecologist Adam Terando helps people understand how climate change may affect their communities and ecosystems by using mathematical models to “downscale” large global climate models.
Research Ecologist Adam Terando helps people understand how climate change may affect their communities and ecosystems by using mathematical models to “downscale” large global climate models.
Climate Science Champions Season 3: Adam Terando, Research Scientist (AD)Climate Science Champions Season 3: Adam Terando, Research Scientist (AD)Climate Science Champions Season 3: Adam Terando, Research Scientist (AD)Research Ecologist Adam Terando helps people understand how climate change may affect their communities and ecosystems by using mathematical models to “downscale” large global climate models.
Research Ecologist Adam Terando helps people understand how climate change may affect their communities and ecosystems by using mathematical models to “downscale” large global climate models.
- Publications
Filter Total Items: 54
Approaches for using CMIP projections in climate model ensembles to address the ‘hot model’ problem
Several recent generation global-climate models were found to have anomalously high climate sensitivities and may not be useful for certain applications. Four approaches for developing ensembles of climate projections for applications that address this issue are:Using an “all models” approach;Screening using equilibrium climate sensitivity and (or) transient climate response;Bayesian model averagiAuthorsRyan Boyles, Catherine A. Nikiel, Brian W. Miller, Jeremy Littell, Adam J. Terando, Imtiaz Rangwala, Jay R. Alder, Derek H. Rosendahl, Adrienne M. WoottenSpatially interactive modeling of land change identifies location-specific adaptations most likely to lower future flood risk
Impacts of sea level rise will last for centuries; therefore, flood risk modeling must transition from identifying risky locations to assessing how populations can best cope. We present the first spatially interactive (i.e., what happens at one location affects another) land change model (FUTURES 3.0) that can probabilistically predict urban growth while simulating human migration and other responAuthorsGeorgina M. Sanchez, Anna Petrasova, Megan M. Skrip, Elyssa Collins, Margaret A. Lawrimore, John B. Vogler, Adam Terando, Jelena Vukomanovic, Helena Mitasova, Ross K. MeentemeyerTourist perceptions of climate change impacts on mountain ecotourism in southern Mexico
Climate change impacts on tourism are well documented, with most studies focusing on challenges facing ski or beach tourism. While non-ski, mountain tourism accounts for almost one fifth of tourism worldwide, there is a dearth of research on tourists’ perceptions of climate change impacts and their effects on tourism demand in these areas. This study, conducted at the ecotourism destination of theAuthorsGinger Deason, Erin Seekamp, Adam Terando, Camila RojasBayesian weighting of climate models based on climate sensitivity
Using climate model ensembles containing members that exhibit very high climate sensitivities to increasing CO2 concentrations can result in biased projections. Various methods have been proposed to ameliorate this ‘hot model’ problem, such as model emulators or model culling. Here, we utilize Bayesian Model Averaging as a framework to address this problem without resorting to outright rejection oAuthorsElias Massoud, Huikyo Lee, Adam Terando, Michael WehnerMinimal shift of eastern wild turkey nesting phenology associated with projected climate change
Climate change may induce mismatches between wildlife reproductive phenology and temporal occurrence of resources necessary for reproductive success. Verifying and elucidating the causal mechanisms behind potential mismatches requires large-scale, longer-duration data. We used eastern wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) nesting data collected across the southeastern U.S. over eight yearsAuthorsWesley W. Boone, Christopher E. Moorman, Adam Terando, David J. Moscicki, Bret A. Collier, Michael J. Chamberlain, Krishna PacificiClimate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: Substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts
BackgroundAmong the most widely predicted climate change-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution to track their climate niches. A series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged in the scientific literature suggesting species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depAuthorsMadeleine A. Rubenstein, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Romain Bertrand, Shawn Carter, Lise Comte, Mitchell Eaton, Ciara G. Johnson, Jonathan Lenoir, Abigail Lynch, Brian W. Miller, Toni Lyn Morelli, Mari Angel Rodriguez, Adam Terando, Laura ThompsonVulnerability of estuarine systems in the contiguous United States to water quality change under future climate and land-use
Changes in climate and land-use and land-cover (LULC) are expected to influence surface water runoff and nutrient characteristics of estuarine watersheds, but the extent to which estuaries are vulnerable to altered nutrient loading under future conditions is poorly understood. The present work aims to address this gap through the development of a new vulnerability assessment framework that accountAuthorsLise R. Montefiore, Natalie Nelson, Michelle Staudinger, Adam J. TerandoCompact or sprawling cities: Has the sparing-sharing framework yielded an ecological verdict?
Purpose of ReviewGlobal urban land area is growing faster than the urban population, raising concerns that sprawling, low-density development will reduce biodiversity and human wellbeing. The sparing-sharing framework, adapted from agroecology, provides one approach to assessing alternative urban growth patterns. It compares ecological outcomes in landscapes matched for total population and land aAuthorsElsa Youngsteadt, Adam Terando, Jennifer K. Costanza, Jelena VukomanovicClimate change weakens the impact of disturbance interval on the growth rate of natural populations of Venus flytrap
Disturbances elicit both positive and negative effects on organisms; these effects vary in their strength and their timing. Effects of disturbance interval (i.e., the length of time between disturbances) on population growth will depend on both the timing and strength of positive and negative effects of disturbances. Climate change can modify the relative strengths of these positive and negative eAuthorsAllison M Louthan, Melina Keighron, Elsita Kiekebusch, Heather Cayton, Adam J. Terando, William F. MorrisPuerto Rico’s state of the climate 2014-2021
The climate of Puerto Rico is influenced by the changing global climate. The following chapters present the current knowledge of the geophysical and chemical drivers and signals of global climate change as they affect the climate of Puerto Rico and influence the climate-dependent services, risks, and vulnerabilities that govern human well-being. These include sustainable economic development, deliAuthorsWilliam A. Gould, Ernesto Dias, Adam Terando, Mark Jury, Jared Bowden, Patricia Chardon, Melissa Meléndez Oyola, Julio MorellVisualizing climate change
Humans are profoundly affecting the planet, and human-caused, or anthropogenic, climate change is the most visible manifestation of this today. In the graph above, from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are shown from the present (at far right) back through several ice age cycles, to eight hundred thousand years ago (800 kyBCE, or thousAuthorsAdam J. TerandoPredicting flood damage probability across the conterminous United States
Floods are the leading cause of natural disaster damages in the United States, with billions of dollars incurred every year in the form of government payouts, property damages, and agricultural losses. The Federal Emergency Management Agency oversees the delineation of floodplains to mitigate damages, but disparities exist between locations designated as high risk and where flood damages occur dueAuthorsElyssa Collins, Georgina M. Sanchez, Adam Terando, Charles C. Stillwell, Helena Mitasova, Antonia Sebastian, Ross K. Meentemeyer - News