Seismicity of Hawaii: earthquakes M>5 from the 1840-1899, 1900-1959, 1960-2019 catalogs shown separately. While earthquake activity remains high today, it seems to have decreased over the past 60 years, which could be related to less volcanic activity at Mauna Loa.
Allison M Shumway
Allison Shumway is a research geophysicist with the Earthquake Hazards Program.
Science and Products
The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications
The USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast
We present the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast for the conterminous United States, which gives authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time‐averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes throughout the region. In addition to updating virtually all model components, a major focus has been to provide a better representation of epistemi
U.S. Geological Survey coastal plain amplification virtual workshop
2021 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for the State of Hawaii
The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Ground motion models in the western US
The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Ground motion models in the central and eastern US
The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, why, and how much probabilistic ground motion maps changed
The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Additional period and site class data
Evaluation of ground‐motion models for U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard forecasts: Hawaii tectonic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions
Evaluation of ground‐motion models for U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard models: 2018 Anchorage, Alaska, Mw 7.1 subduction zone earthquake sequence
The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview of model and implications
Evaluation of ground motion models for USGS seismic hazard forecasts: Induced and tectonic earthquakes in the Central and Eastern U.S.
Recurrence Models for Earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone Workshop
2023 50-State Update of the NSHMs Kickoff Meeting
Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2
Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview
Data Release for the 2021 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Hawaii
Data Release for Additional Period and Site Class Data for the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous United States (ver. 1.1, February 2020)
Data Release for the 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, Why, and How Much Probabilistic Ground Motion Maps Changed
Data Release for the 2010 Haiti Seismic Hazard Model
Data Release for the 2016 One-Year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from Induced and Natural Earthquakes
Data Release for the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous U.S.
Data Release for the 1998 Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model
Data Release for the 1999 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model
Data Release for the 2007 Afghanistan Seismic Hazard Model
Data Release for the 2007 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model
Data Release for the 2012 Guam and Northern Mariana Islands Seismic Hazard Model
Seismicity of Hawaii: earthquakes M>5 from the 1840-1899, 1900-1959, 1960-2019 catalogs shown separately. While earthquake activity remains high today, it seems to have decreased over the past 60 years, which could be related to less volcanic activity at Mauna Loa.
Figure 2.
Figure 1. Chance of minor or greater damaging earthquake shaking in the next 100 years. Population exposure estimates are rounded to the nearest 1000.
Figure 1. Chance of minor or greater damaging earthquake shaking in the next 100 years. Population exposure estimates are rounded to the nearest 1000.
Science and Products
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Filter Total Items: 19
The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications
The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public policy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increaseAuthorsMark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Edward H. Field, Morgan P. Moschetti, Kishor Jaiswal, Kevin R. Milner, Sanaz Rezaeian, Arthur Frankel, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Jason M. Altekruse, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Kyle Withers, Charles Mueller, Yuehua Zeng, Robert E. Chase, Leah M. Salditch, Nicolas Luco, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Julie A Herrick, Demi Leafar Girot, Brad T. Aagaard, Adrian Bender, Michael Blanpied, Richard W. Briggs, Oliver S. Boyd, Brandon Clayton, Christopher DuRoss, Eileen L. Evans, Peter J. Haeussler, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Elizabeth H. Hearn, Kaj M. Johnson, Zachary Alan Kortum, N. Simon Kwong, Andrew James Makdisi, Henry (Ben) Mason, Daniel McNamara, Devin McPhillips, P. Okubo, Morgan T. Page, Fred Pollitz, Justin Rubinstein, Bruce E. Shaw, Zheng-Kang Shen, Brian Shiro, James Andrew Smith, William J. Stephenson, Eric M. Thompson, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Erin Wirth, Robert C. WitterThe USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast
We present the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast for the conterminous United States, which gives authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time‐averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes throughout the region. In addition to updating virtually all model components, a major focus has been to provide a better representation of epistemi
AuthorsEdward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Peter M. Powers, Fred Pollitz, Andrea L. Llenos, Yuehua Zeng, Kaj M. Johnson, Bruce E. Shaw, Devin McPhillips, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Allison Shumway, Andrew J. Michael, Zheng-Kang Shen, Eileen L. Evans, Elizabeth H. Hearn, Charles Mueller, Arthur Frankel, Mark D. Petersen, Christopher DuRoss, Richard W. Briggs, Morgan T. Page, Justin Rubinstein, Julie A HerrickU.S. Geological Survey coastal plain amplification virtual workshop
In early October of 2020, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) held a virtual workshop to discuss Gulf and Atlantic Coastal Plains site-response models. Earthquake researchers came together to assess (1) research related to proposed Coastal Plains amplification models and (2) USGS plans for implementing these models. Presentations spanned a broad range of topics from Atlantic and Gulf Coastal PlainsAuthorsOliver S. Boyd, Thomas L. Pratt, Martin C. Chapman, Allison Shumway, Sanaz Rezaeian, Morgan P. Moschetti, Mark D. Petersen2021 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for the State of Hawaii
The 2021 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the State of Hawaii updates the two-decades-old former model by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the underlying ground shaking forecasts of tectonic-fault, tectonic-flexure, volcanic, and caldera collapse earthquakes. Two earthquake ground shaking hazard models (public policy and research) are produced that differ in hAuthorsMark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Morgan P. Moschetti, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Charles Mueller, Arthur Frankel, Sanaz Rezaeian, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Daniel E. McNamara, P. Okubo, Yuehua Zeng, Kishor Jaiswal, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Jason M. Altekruse, Brian ShiroThe 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Ground motion models in the western US
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) is the scientific foundation of seismic design regulations in the United States and is regularly updated to consider the best available science and data. The 2018 update of the conterminous U.S. NSHM includes significant changes to the underlying ground motion models (GMMs), most of which are necessary to enable the new multi-pAuthorsPeter M. Powers, Sanaz Rezaeian, Allison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen, Nicolas Luco, Oliver S. Boyd, Morgan P. Moschetti, Arthur Frankel, Eric M. ThompsonThe 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Ground motion models in the central and eastern US
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) is the scientific foundation of seismic design regulations in the United States and is regularly updated to consider the best available science and data. The 2018 update of the conterminous US NSHM includes major changes to the underlying ground motion models (GMMs). Most of the changes are motivated by the new multi-pAuthorsSanaz Rezaeian, Peter M. Powers, Allison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen, Nicolas Luco, Arthur Frankel, Morgan P. Moschetti, Eric M. Thompson, Daniel McNamaraThe 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, why, and how much probabilistic ground motion maps changed
The 2018 US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) incorporates new data and updated science to improve the underlying earthquake and ground motion forecasts for the conterminous United States. The NSHM considers many new data and component input models: (1) new earthquakes between 2013 and 2017 and updated earthquake magnitudes for some earlier earthquakes; (2) two updated smootheAuthorsMark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Charles S Mueller, Morgan P. Moschetti, Arthur Frankel, Sanaz Rezaeian, Daniel McNamara, Nicolas Luco, Oliver S. Boyd, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Kishor Jaiswal, Eric M. Thompson, Susan M. Hoover, Brandon Clayton, Edward H. Field, Yuehua ZengThe 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Additional period and site class data
As part of the update of the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States (CONUS), new ground motion and site effect models for the central and eastern United States were incorporated, as well as basin depths from local seismic velocity models in four western US (WUS) urban areas. These additions allow us, for the first time, to calculate probabilistic seismic hazarAuthorsAllison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen, Peter M. Powers, Sanaz Rezaeian, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Brandon ClaytonEvaluation of ground‐motion models for U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard forecasts: Hawaii tectonic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions
The selection and weighting of ground‐motion models (GMMs) introduces a significant source of uncertainty in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Modeling Project (NSHMP) forecasts. In this study, we evaluate 18 candidate GMMs using instrumental ground‐motion observations of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5%‐damped pseudospectral acceleration (0.02–10 s) for tectoniAuthorsDaniel E. McNamara, Emily Wolin, Peter M. Powers, Allison Shumway, Morgan P. Moschetti, John Rekoske, Eric M. Thompson, Charles Mueller, Mark D. PetersenEvaluation of ground‐motion models for U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard models: 2018 Anchorage, Alaska, Mw 7.1 subduction zone earthquake sequence
Instrumental ground‐motion recordings from the 2018 Anchorage, Alaska (Mw 7.1), earthquake sequence provide an independent data set allowing us to evaluate the predictive power of ground‐motion models (GMMs) for intraslab earthquakes associated with the Alaska subduction zone. In this study, we evaluate 15 candidate GMMs using instrumental ground‐motion observations of peak ground acceleration anAuthorsDaniel E. McNamara, Emily Wolin, Peter M. Powers, Allison Shumway, Morgan P. Moschetti, John Rekoske, Eric M. Thompson, Charles Mueller, Mark D. PetersenThe 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview of model and implications
During 2017–2018, the National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated as follows: (1) an updated seismicity catalog was incorporated, which includes new earthquakes that occurred from 2013 to 2017; (2) in the central and eastern United States (CEUS), new ground motion models were updated that incorporate updated median estimates, modified assessments of the associatedAuthorsMark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Charles Mueller, Morgan P. Moschetti, Arthur Frankel, Sanaz Rezaeian, Daniel E. McNamara, Nicolas Luco, Oliver S. Boyd, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Kishor Jaiswal, Eric M. Thompson, Susan M. Hoover, Brandon Clayton, Edward H. Field, Yuehua ZengEvaluation of ground motion models for USGS seismic hazard forecasts: Induced and tectonic earthquakes in the Central and Eastern U.S.
Ground motion model (GMM) selection and weighting introduces a significant source of uncertainty in United States Geological Survey (USGS) seismic hazard models. The increase in moderate moment magnitude induced earthquakes (Mw 4 to 5.8) in Oklahoma and Kansas since 2009, due to increased wastewater injection related to oil and gas production (Keranen et al., 2013; 2014; Weingarten et al., 2015;AuthorsDaniel E. McNamara, Mark D. Petersen, Eric M. Thompson, Peter M. Powers, Allison Shumway, Susan M. Hoover, Morgan P. Moschetti, Emily Wolin - Science
Recurrence Models for Earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone Workshop
Tuesday, February 23, 2021 Virtual Meeting2023 50-State Update of the NSHMs Kickoff Meeting
Friday, January 22, 2021 Virtual MeetingUpdate of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2
Wednesday, November 18, 2019 Virtual Meeting - Data
Filter Total Items: 21
Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview
This data release contains data sets associated with the 2023 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model Update. The 2023 50-State National Seimsic Hazard Model (NSHM) Update includes an update to the NSHMs for the conterminous U.S (CONUS, last updated in 2018), Alaska (AK, last updated in 2007), and Hawaii (last updated in 2001). Data sets include inputs like seismicity catalogs used as input to theData Release for the 2021 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Hawaii
The 2021 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Hawaii succeeds the twenty-year-old former model by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the ground shaking forecasts. Output from the model includes probabilistic seismic hazard curves calculated for a 0.02° x 0.02° grid of latitude/longitude locations across Hawaii. The new model provides an expanded suite of haData Release for Additional Period and Site Class Data for the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous United States (ver. 1.1, February 2020)
The updated 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model includes new ground motion models, aleatory uncertainty, and soil amplification factors for the central and eastern U.S. and incorporates basin depths from local seismic velocity models in four western U.S. (WUS) urban areas. These additions allow us, for the first time, to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard curves for an expanded set of spectralData Release for the 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, Why, and How Much Probabilistic Ground Motion Maps Changed
This dataset presents where, why, and how much probabilistic ground motions have changed with the 2018 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) vs. the 2014 NSHM. In the central and eastern U.S., hazard changes are the result of updated ground motion models (further broken down by median and epistemic uncertainty, aleatory variability, and site effects mData Release for the 2010 Haiti Seismic Hazard Model
Gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2010 Haiti Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps are available for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2, and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years and 10 percent in 50 years, assuming firm rock soil condiData Release for the 2016 One-Year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from Induced and Natural Earthquakes
Seismicity catalogs, gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2016 One-Year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern U.S. from Induced and Natural Earthquakes. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of the conterminous U.S. for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2 and 1.0 second spectral acceleratiData Release for the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous U.S.
Seismicity catalogs, gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous U.S. Seismicity catalogs are available for the western U.S. (in Mw) and central and eastern U.S. (in mb). Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of the conterminous U.S. for peak ground acceleraData Release for the 1998 Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model
Gridded seismic hazard cruve data, gridded ground motion data, mapped gridded ground motion values, and the seismicity catalog are available for the 1998 Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Hawaii for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404Data Release for the 1999 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model
Gridded ground motion data and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 1999 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Alaska and the Aleutians for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404) and 10 percent in 50 years (annual probaData Release for the 2007 Afghanistan Seismic Hazard Model
Gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2007 Afghanistan Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Afghanistan for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2 and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404), 5 percent in 50 yData Release for the 2007 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model
Gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2007 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model. Time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Alaska and the Aleutians for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annuaData Release for the 2012 Guam and Northern Mariana Islands Seismic Hazard Model
Gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2012 Guam and Northern Mariana Islands Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2 and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (an - Multimedia
Figure 3. Seismicity of Hawaii from 2021 Hawaii National Seismic Hazard MapFigure 3. Seismicity of Hawaii from 2021 Hawaii National Seismic Hazard Map
Seismicity of Hawaii: earthquakes M>5 from the 1840-1899, 1900-1959, 1960-2019 catalogs shown separately. While earthquake activity remains high today, it seems to have decreased over the past 60 years, which could be related to less volcanic activity at Mauna Loa.
Seismicity of Hawaii: earthquakes M>5 from the 1840-1899, 1900-1959, 1960-2019 catalogs shown separately. While earthquake activity remains high today, it seems to have decreased over the past 60 years, which could be related to less volcanic activity at Mauna Loa.
Earthquakes on the island of HawaiiFigure 2.
Chance of earthquakes in HawaiiFigure 1. Chance of minor or greater damaging earthquake shaking in the next 100 years. Population exposure estimates are rounded to the nearest 1000.
Figure 1. Chance of minor or greater damaging earthquake shaking in the next 100 years. Population exposure estimates are rounded to the nearest 1000.
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