Waves flood across a coastal road near Santa Cruz, California.
Amy Foxgrover
Geographer at the USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Science and Products
San Francisco Bay Bathymetry
Projections of shoreline change for California due to 21st century sea-level rise
Bathymetric change analysis in San Francisco Bay, California, from 1971 to 2020
Future coastal hazards along the U.S. Atlantic coast
Future coastal hazards along the U.S. North and South Carolina coasts
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Northern California 3.2 (ver. 1d, June 2023)
Bathymetric surveys collected near Dumbarton Bridge in south San Francisco Bay, California, 2008 to 2019
High-resolution (1 m) digital elevation model (DEM) of San Francisco Bay, California, created using bathymetry data collected between 1999 and 2020 (ver. 2.0, July 2021)
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Central California, v3.1
California shorelines and shoreline change data, 1998-2016
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Southern California, v3.0, Phase 2
Waves flood across a coastal road near Santa Cruz, California.
Successful hindcast of 7 years of mud morphodynamics influenced by salt pond restoration in south San Francisco Bay
Sediment deposition, erosion, and bathymetric change in San Francisco Bay, California, 1971–1990 and 1999–2020
South San Francisco Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project—A synthesis of Phase-1 mercury studies
Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change
Slough evolution and legacy mercury remobilization induced by wetland restoration in South San Francisco Bay
Assessing and communicating the impacts of climate change on the Southern California coast
Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for assessing climate change-driven coastal hazards and socio-economic impacts
Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 1: Development of the third generation CoSMoS model
Mudflat morphodynamics and the impact of sea level rise in South San Francisco Bay
Automatic delineation of seacliff limits using lidar-derived high-resolution DEMs in southern California
Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts
Integration of bed characteristics, geochemical tracers, current measurements, and numerical modeling for assessing the provenance of beach sand in the San Francisco Bay Coastal System
Over 150 million m3 of sand-sized sediment has disappeared from the central region of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System during the last half century. This enormous loss may reflect numerous anthropogenic influences, such as watershed damming, bay-fill development, aggregate mining, and dredging. The reduction in Bay sediment also appears to be linked to a reduction in sediment supply and recent
Science and Products
- Science
San Francisco Bay Bathymetry
Bathymetry of a dynamic tidal estuary, such as San Francisco Bay, provides the observable linkage between anthropogenic modifications of the landscape—such as evolving land use practices, flood control, and water diversions—and natural forces of climate-driven river flow, sea level change, tides, and wind. By examining our record of hydrographic surveys, spanning over 150 years, we can gain... - Data
Projections of shoreline change for California due to 21st century sea-level rise
This dataset contains projections of shoreline change and uncertainty bands across California for future scenarios of sea-level rise (SLR). Projections were made using the Coastal Storm Modeling System - Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool (CoSMoS-COAST), a numerical model run in an ensemble forced with global-to-local nested wave models and assimilated with satellite-derived shoreline (SBathymetric change analysis in San Francisco Bay, California, from 1971 to 2020
This data release provides bathymetric change grids of four geographic areas of San Francisco Bay, California, comparing digital elevation models (DEMs) created from bathymetric data collected in the 1970s and 1980s with DEMs created from bathymetric data collected in the 2010s and 2020. These types of change analyses can provide information on the quantities and patterns of erosion and depositionFuture coastal hazards along the U.S. Atlantic coast
This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms for three States (Florida, Georgia, and Virginia) along the Atlantic coast of the United States. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available science and with enough resolution to support a suite of different plannFuture coastal hazards along the U.S. North and South Carolina coasts
This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms along the North and South Carolina coast. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available, science and with enough resolution to support a suite of different planning horizons. The storm scenarios are derived with theCoastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Northern California 3.2 (ver. 1d, June 2023)
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS 3.2 for Northern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planneBathymetric surveys collected near Dumbarton Bridge in south San Francisco Bay, California, 2008 to 2019
In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey began mapping the main channel and shallow intertidal mudflats between the Dumbarton Bridge and a railroad bridge located 1 km to the south in south San Francisco Bay. This information was collected to document bathymetric change before and after restoration to inform the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project (https://www.southbayrestoration.org), which initiaHigh-resolution (1 m) digital elevation model (DEM) of San Francisco Bay, California, created using bathymetry data collected between 1999 and 2020 (ver. 2.0, July 2021)
A 1-m resolution bathymetric digital elevation model (DEM) of all off San Francisco Bay was constructed from bathymetric surveys collected from 1999 to 2016. The DEM has been divided into northern and southern sections due to file size, and is available in both MLLW and NAVD88 versions. Background: In 2014 and 2015 the California Ocean Protection Council (OPC) contracted the collection of bathyCoastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Central California, v3.1
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.1 for Central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planneCalifornia shorelines and shoreline change data, 1998-2016
This data release contains mean high water (MHW) shorelines along the coast of California for the years 1998/2002, 2015, and 2016, extracted from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) digital elevation models using ArcGIS. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) was used to calculate net shoreline movement (NSM) between the pre-El Nino (2015) and post-El Nino (2016) shorelines, as a proxy for sCoastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Southern California, v3.0, Phase 2
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level-rise scenarios, as well as long-term shoreline change and cliff retreat. Resulting projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) provide emergency responders a - Multimedia
Flooded Coastal Road Santa Cruz County California
Waves flood across a coastal road near Santa Cruz, California.
Waves flood across a coastal road near Santa Cruz, California.
- Publications
Filter Total Items: 15
Successful hindcast of 7 years of mud morphodynamics influenced by salt pond restoration in south San Francisco Bay
Alviso Slough in South San Francisco Bay has been experiencing restoration of adjacent former salt-production ponds into muted tidal ponds, tidal ponds, and salt marsh. As a result, tidal prism through Alviso Slough has increased and mercury-contaminated sediment has been remobilized. We developed a 2D, high-resolution, process-based model (Delft3D FM-wave) to hindcast observed morpho-dynamic deveAuthorsMick Van der Wegen, Johan Reyns, Bruce E. Jaffe, Amy C. Foxgrover, Fernanda Achete, Mark C. Marvin-DiPasquale, Theresa A. Fregoso, Judy Nam, Jessica LoveringSediment deposition, erosion, and bathymetric change in San Francisco Bay, California, 1971–1990 and 1999–2020
Bathymetric change analyses document historical patterns of sediment deposition and erosion, providing valuable insight into the sediment dynamics of coastal systems, including pathways of sediment and sediment-bound contaminants. In 2014 and 2015, the Office for Coastal Management, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Office of Coastal Management, provideAuthorsTheresa A. Fregoso, Amy C. Foxgrover, Bruce E. JaffeSouth San Francisco Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project—A synthesis of Phase-1 mercury studies
The South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project (SBSPRP) encompasses over 6,000 hectares of former salt production ponds along the south edge of the San Francisco Bay and represents the largest wetland restoration effort on the west coast of North America. A series of studies associated with Phase 1 (2010–2018) restoration activities that are focused on a historically mercury contaminated slough and sAuthorsMark Marvin-DiPasquale, Darell Slotton, Josh T. Ackerman, Maureen A. Downing-Kunz, Bruce E. Jaffe, Amy C. Foxgrover, Fernanda Achete, Mick van der WegenDynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change
Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and have not compAuthorsPatrick L. Barnard, Li H. Erikson, Amy C. Foxgrover, Juliette A. Finzi Hart, Patrick W. Limber, Andrea C. O'Neill, Maarten van Ormondt, Sean Vitousek, Nathan J. Wood, Maya K. Hayden, Jeanne M. JonesSlough evolution and legacy mercury remobilization induced by wetland restoration in South San Francisco Bay
Coastal wetlands have a long history of degradation and destruction due to human development. Now recognized as one of the most productive ecosystems in the world, substantial efforts are being made to restore this critical habitat. While wetland restoration efforts are generally viewed as beneficial in terms of providing wildlife habitat and flood control, they are often accompanied by dramatic pAuthorsAmy C. Foxgrover, Mark C. Marvin-DiPasquale, Bruce E. Jaffe, Theresa A. FregosoAssessing and communicating the impacts of climate change on the Southern California coast
Over the course of this and the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal erosion will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we currently know them. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies for projected increased levels of coastal flooding and erosion, coastal managerAuthorsLi H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Andrea C. O'Neill, Patrick Limber, Sean Vitousek, Juliette Finzi Hart, Maya Hayden, Jeanne M. Jones, Nathan J. Wood, Michael Fitzgibbon, Amy C. Foxgrover, Jessica LoveringProjected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for assessing climate change-driven coastal hazards and socio-economic impacts
This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale coastal flood impacts by deterministically computingAuthorsLi H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Andrea C. O'Neill, Nathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones, Juliette Finzi Hart, Sean Vitousek, Patrick W. Limber, Maya Hayden, Michael Fitzgibbon, Jessica Lovering, Amy C. FoxgroverProjected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 1: Development of the third generation CoSMoS model
Due to the effects of climate change over the course of the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal change will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we know them today. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies due to projected increased levels of coastal flooding anAuthorsAndrea C. O'Neill, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Patrick W. Limber, Sean Vitousek, Jonathan Warrick, Amy C. Foxgrover, Jessica LoveringMudflat morphodynamics and the impact of sea level rise in South San Francisco Bay
Estuarine tidal mudflats form unique habitats and maintain valuable ecosystems. Historic measurements of a mudflat in San Fancsico Bay over the past 150 years suggest the development of a rather stable mudflat profile. This raises questions on its origin and governing processes as well as on the mudflats’ fate under scenarios of sea level rise and decreasing sediment supply. We developed a 1D morpAuthorsMick Van der Wegen, Bruce E. Jaffe, Amy C. Foxgrover, Dano RoelvinkAutomatic delineation of seacliff limits using lidar-derived high-resolution DEMs in southern California
Seacliff erosion is a serious hazard with implications for coastal management and is often estimated using successive hand-digitized cliff tops or bases (toe) to assess cliff retreat. Even if efforts are made to standardize manual digitizing and eliminate subjectivity, the delineation of cliffs is time-consuming and depends on the analyst's interpretation. An automatic procedure is proposed to extAuthorsMonica Palaseanu-Lovejoy, Jeffrey J. Danielson, Cindy A. Thatcher, Amy C. Foxgrover, Patrick L. Barnard, John Brock, Adam YoungDevelopment of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) applies a predominantly deterministic framework to make detailed predictions (meter scale) of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications (i.e., nowcasts and multiday forecasts), and future climate scenarios (i.e., sea-levAuthorsPatrick L. Barnard, Maarten van Ormondt, Li H. Erikson, Jodi Eshleman, Cheryl J. Hapke, Peter Ruggiero, Peter Adams, Amy C. FoxgroverIntegration of bed characteristics, geochemical tracers, current measurements, and numerical modeling for assessing the provenance of beach sand in the San Francisco Bay Coastal System
Over 150 million m3 of sand-sized sediment has disappeared from the central region of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System during the last half century. This enormous loss may reflect numerous anthropogenic influences, such as watershed damming, bay-fill development, aggregate mining, and dredging. The reduction in Bay sediment also appears to be linked to a reduction in sediment supply and recent
AuthorsPatrick L. Barnard, Amy C. Foxgrover, Edwin P.L. Elias, Li H. Erikson, James R. Hein, Mary McGann, Kira Mizell, Robert J. Rosenbauer, Peter W. Swarzenski, Renee K. Takesue, Florence L. Wong, Don Woodrow - News