Brian W Miller, Ph.D.
Dr. Brian Miller is a USGS Research Ecologist with the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, one of nine centers in the United States charged with providing the best-available climate science to resource managers.
Brian's current focus is on using scenario planning and simulation modeling (state-and-transition simulations, agent-based models) to inform natural resource management in the Rocky Mountains and northern Great Plains. He is also a co-organizer of the Indigenous Phenology Network and an instructor with the National Conservation Training Center. He has an interdisciplinary background in social-ecological systems, and has used a broad range of methods – including simulation modeling, institutional analysis, fluvial geomorphology, livelihood decision modeling, and remote sensing – to examine the interactions of climate, ecosystems, and resource management in East Africa, the Galápagos Islands, and the western U.S.
Brian earned a B.A. in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology from the University of Colorado at Boulder, and a Ph.D. in Ecology from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill where he also worked at the Carolina Population Center. His dissertation focused on how conservation areas and land use changes have affected access to drought resource areas in East Africa, how these changes in resource access have influenced the livelihood decisions of Maasai pastoralists, and how livelihood decisions and resource management institutions have affected rangeland rivers.
Education and Certifications
Ph.D. in Ecology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
B.A. in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado at Boulder
Science and Products
Supporting the National Park Service Midwest Region Bison Management Plan
Refining Guidance for Incorporating Climate Science and Scenario Planning into National Park Service Resource Stewardship Strategies
Understanding Species' Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change: Results from a Systematic National Review
Improving Projections of Wildlife and Landscapes for Natural Resource Managers
Informing Climate Change Adaptation Planning in National Parks
Webinar: Using State-and-Transition Simulation Models to Guide Sustainable Management of Ecosystems: Three Case Studies from across the US
From flowering to foliage: Accelerometers track tree sway to provide high-resolution insights into tree phenology
Conservation under uncertainty: Innovations in participatory climate change scenario planning from U.S. national parks
Increasing the uptake of ecological model results in policy decisions to improve biodiversity outcomes
A new approach for representing agent-environment feedbacks: Coupled agent-based and state-and-transition simulation models
PS3: The Pheno-Synthesis software suite for integration and analysis of multi-scale, multi-platform phenological data
Divergent, plausible, and relevant climate futures for near- and long-term resource planning
Climate change scenario planning for resource stewardship at Wind Cave National Park
Ecological forecasting—21st century science for 21st century management
Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending near-term changes in ecosystem conditions or dynamics. Managers may use the information in forecasts to minimize the adverse ef
Report on the workshop ‘Next Steps in Developing Nature Futures’
Do empirical observations support commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses? A systematic review protocol
A draft decision framework for the National Park Service Interior Region 5 bison stewardship strategy
Report on the workshop 'Global modelling of biodiversity and ecosystem services'
Non-USGS Publications**
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
Science and Products
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Filter Total Items: 18
Supporting the National Park Service Midwest Region Bison Management Plan
The bison, which has long served as the symbol of the Department of the Interior, became the official national mammal of the United States in 2016. Bison played a key role in shaping the grasslands of the Great Plains for millennia, but today they are confined to unnaturally small ranges. National parks, including four in the Great Plains, provide a major last bastion for wild bison. Herds in BadlRefining Guidance for Incorporating Climate Science and Scenario Planning into National Park Service Resource Stewardship Strategies
One of the biggest challenges facing resource managers today is not knowing exactly when, where, or how climate change effects will unfold. To help federal land managers address this need, the North Central CASC has been working with the National Park Service to pioneer an approach for incorporating climate science and scenario planning into NPS planning processes, in particular Resource StewardshUnderstanding Species' Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change: Results from a Systematic National Review
Climate change represents one of the foremost drivers of ecological change, yet its documented impacts on biodiversity remain uncertain and complex. Although there have been many published studies on species shifting their geographic ranges in response to climate change, it is still challenging to identify the specific mechanisms and conditions that facilitate range shifts in some species and notImproving Projections of Wildlife and Landscapes for Natural Resource Managers
Managing natural resources is fraught with uncertainties around how complex social-ecological systems will respond to management actions and other forces, such as climate. Modeling tools have emerged to help grapple with different aspects of this challenge, but they are often used independently. The purpose of this project is to link two types of commonly-used simulation models (agent-based modelsInforming Climate Change Adaptation Planning in National Parks
One of the biggest challenges facing resource managers today is not knowing exactly when, where, or how climate change effects will unfold. In order to plan for this uncertain future, managers have begun to use a tool known as scenario planning, in which climate models are used to identify different plausible climate conditions, known as “scenarios”, for a particular area. In a previous project,Webinar: Using State-and-Transition Simulation Models to Guide Sustainable Management of Ecosystems: Three Case Studies from across the US
View this webinar to learn more about species distribution modeling, management of Southeast ecosystems, and Greater sage-grouse habitats. - Data
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From flowering to foliage: Accelerometers track tree sway to provide high-resolution insights into tree phenology
Trees are bioindicators of global climate change and regional urbanization, but available monitoring tools are ineffective for fine-scale observation of many species. Using six accelerometers mounted on two urban ash trees (Fraxinus americana), we looked at high-frequency tree vibrations, or change in periodicity of tree sway as a proxy for mass changes, to infer seasonal patterns of flowering andAuthorsDeidre M. Jaeger, A. M. C. Looze, M. S. Raleigh, Brian W. Miller, J. M. Friedman, C. A. WessmanConservation under uncertainty: Innovations in participatory climate change scenario planning from U.S. national parks
The impacts of climate change (CC) on natural and cultural resources are far-reaching and complex. A major challenge facing resource managers is not knowing the exact timing and nature of those impacts. To confront this problem, scientists, adaptation specialists, and resource managers have begun to use scenario planning (SP). This structured process identifies a small set of scenarios—descriptionAuthorsBrian W. Miller, Gregor W. Schuurman, Amy Symstad, Amber C Runyon, Brecken C. RobbIncreasing the uptake of ecological model results in policy decisions to improve biodiversity outcomes
Models help decision-makers anticipate the consequences of policies for ecosystems and people; for instance, improving our ability to represent interactions between human activities and ecological systems is essential to identify pathways to meet the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. However, use of modeling outputs in decision-making remains uncommon. We share insights from a multidisciplinaryAuthorsSarah R. Weiskopf, Zuzana Harmáčková, Ciara G. Johnson, Maria Cecilia Londoño-Murcia, Brian W. Miller, Bonnie J.E. Myers, Laura Pereira, Maria Isabel Arce-Plata, Julia L. Blanchard, Simon Ferrier, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Mike Harfoot, Forest Isbell, Justin A. Johnson, Akira S. Mori, Ensheng Weng, Isabel M.D. RosaA new approach for representing agent-environment feedbacks: Coupled agent-based and state-and-transition simulation models
ContextAgent-based models (ABMs) and state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) have proven useful for understanding processes underlying social-ecological systems and evaluating practical questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. ABMs can simulate a variety of agents (autonomous units, such as wildlife or people); agent characteristics, decision-making, adaptive behaviAuthorsBrian W. Miller, Leonardo FridPS3: The Pheno-Synthesis software suite for integration and analysis of multi-scale, multi-platform phenological data
Phenology is the study of recurring plant and animal life-cycle stages which can be observed across spatial and temporal scales that span orders of magnitude (e.g., organisms to landscapes). The variety of scales at which phenological processes operate is reflected in the range of methods for collecting phenologically relevant data, and the programs focused on these collections. Consideration of tAuthorsJeffrey Morisette, Katharyn A Duffy, Jake Weltzin, Dawn M Browning, Lee R Marsh, Aaron Friesz, Luke J Zachmann, Kyle Enns, Vincent A. Landau, Katharine L. Gerst, Theresa M. Crimmins, Katherine D. Jones, Tony Chang, Brian W. Miller, Tom Maiersperger, Andrew D. RichardsonDivergent, plausible, and relevant climate futures for near- and long-term resource planning
Scenario planning has emerged as a widely used planning process for resource management in situations of consequential, irreducible uncertainty. Because it explicitly incorporates uncertainty, scenario planning is regularly employed in climate change adaptation. An early and essential step in developing scenarios is identifying “climate futures”—descriptions of the physical attributes of plausibleAuthorsDavid J. Lawrence, Amber N. Runyon, John E. Gross, Gregor W. Schuurman, Brian W. MillerClimate change scenario planning for resource stewardship at Wind Cave National Park
This report explains scenario planning as a climate change adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to Wind Cave National Park as the second part of a pilot project to dovetail climate change scenario planning with National Park Service (NPS) Resource Stewardship Strategy development. In the orientation phase, Park and regional NPS staff, other subject-matter experts, naturalAuthorsAmber N. Runyon, Gregor W. Schuurman, Brian W. Miller, Amy Symstad, Amanda HardyEcological forecasting—21st century science for 21st century management
Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending near-term changes in ecosystem conditions or dynamics. Managers may use the information in forecasts to minimize the adverse ef
AuthorsJohn B. Bradford, Jake Weltzin, Molly L. McCormick, Jill Baron, Zack Bowen, Sky Bristol, Daren Carlisle, Theresa Crimmins, Paul C. Cross, Joe DeVivo, Mike Dietze, Mary Freeman, Jason Goldberg, Mevin Hooten, Leslie Hsu, Karen Jenni, Jennifer L. Keisman, Jonathan Kennen, Kathy Lee, David P. Lesmes, Keith Loftin, Brian W. Miller, Peter S. Murdoch, Jana Newman, Karen L. Prentice, Imtiaz Rangwala, Jordan Read, Jennifer Sieracki, Helen Sofaer, Steve Thur, Gordon Toevs, Francisco Werner, C. LeAnn White, Timothy White, Mark T. WiltermuthByEcosystems Mission Area, Water Resources Mission Area, Science Synthesis, Analysis and Research Program, Contaminant Biology, Environmental Health Program, Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS) Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Fort Collins Science Center, Kansas Water Science Center, Maryland-Delaware-D.C. Water Science Center, National Wildlife Health Center, New Jersey Water Science Center, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center, Southwest Biological Science Center, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, Upper Midwest Water Science CenterReport on the workshop ‘Next Steps in Developing Nature Futures’
The workshop ‘New Narratives for Nature: operationalizing the IPBES Nature Futures Scenarios’ was organised by the IPBES task force on scenarios and models and hosted by the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), with support from the research team on “Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services through an Integrated Social-Ecological Systems Approach (PANCES)” bAuthorsMachteld Schoolenberg, Sana Okayasu, Rob Alkemade, Amanda Krijgsman, Ana Paula Dutra de Aguiar, Shizuka Hashimoto, Carolyn J. Lundquist, Laura Pereira, Garry Peterson, Dolors Armenteras, William W. L. Cheung, Mariteuw Chimère Diaw, América Paz Durán, Maria Gasalla, Ghassen Halouani, Paula Harrisson, Sylvia Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, HyeJin Kim, Jan J. Kuiper, Brian W. Miller, Yasuo Takahashi, Ramón PichsDo empirical observations support commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses? A systematic review protocol
Background Among the most widely anticipated climate-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution in response to changing climate conditions. In particular, a series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged: species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in responAuthorsMadeleine A. Rubenstein, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Shawn Carter, Mitchell Eaton, Ciara Johnson, Abigail Lynch, Brian W. Miller, Toni Lyn Morelli, Mari Angel Rodriguez, Adam Terando, Laura ThompsonA draft decision framework for the National Park Service Interior Region 5 bison stewardship strategy
The Department of the Interior Bison Conservation Initiative calls for its bureaus to plan and implement collaborative American bison conservation and to ensure involvement by tribal, state, and local governments and the public in that conservation. Four independently managed and geographically separated National Park Service (NPS) units in Interior Region 5 (IR5) preserve bison and other componenAuthorsAmy Symstad, Brian W. Miller, Tanya M Shenk, Nicole D Athearn, Michael C. RungeReport on the workshop 'Global modelling of biodiversity and ecosystem services'
A three-day workshop on ‘Global Modelling of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services’, was held in the Hague, Netherlands, from 24th to 26th June 2019. The workshop, attended by 35 modelling and scenario-building experts, was organised on behalf of the former IPBES1 expert group on scenarios and models of the first IPBES work programme by its interim technical support unit, and hosted by the PBL NetheAuthorsSana Okayasu, Machteld Schoolenberg, Eefje den Belder, Ghassen Halouani, HyeJin Kim, Brian W. MillerNon-USGS Publications**
Miller, B. W. 2015. Using geospatial analysis to assess the influence of land-use change and conservation on pastoralist access to drought resources. Nomadic Peoples 19(1): 120-145.Miller, B. W., Leslie, P. W., McCabe, J. T. 2014. Coping with natural hazards in a conservation context: resource-use decisions of Maasai households during recent and historical drought. Human Ecology 42(5): 753-768.Miller, B. W., & Doyle, M. W. 2014. Rangeland management and fluvial geomorphology in northern Tanzania. Geomorphology 214: 366-377.Miller, B. W., Caplow, S. C., Leslie, P. W. 2012. Feedbacks between conservation and social-ecological systems. Conservation Biology 26(2): 218-227.Miller, B. W., Breckheimer I., McCleary, A. L., Guzmán-Ramirez, L., Caplow, S. C., Jones-Smith, J. C., Walsh, S. J. 2010. Using stylized agent-based models for population-environment research: a case study from the Galápagos Islands. Population and Environment 31(6): 401-426.Walsh, S. J., Miller, B. W., Breckheimer, I., McCleary, A. L., Guzman-Ramirez, L., Caplow, S. C., Jones-Smith, J. C. 2009. Complexity Theory and Spatial Simulation Models to Assess Population-Environment Interactions in the Galápagos Islands. In: M. Wolff and M. Gardener (eds.), Proceedings of the Galápagos Science Symposium, Charles Darwin Foundation, Puerto Ayora, Galapagos, Ecuador. Pp 145-148.**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
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