Catherine S. Jarnevich, PhD
Catherine began working for the USGS while obtaining her doctorate in ecology in 2000. She gained skills in integrating disparate datasets of species’ location data and using these to generate spatially explicit models of species occurrence and abundance.
Catherine has developed a research program to assist multiple agencies and groups with species distributions, focusing on invasive species. Her current research involves the application of habitat suitability models to answer different applied research and management questions for various species across a range of taxa and spatial scales. She has also been working with spatially explicit state and transition modeling to inform efficient landscape scale invasive plant management.
Professional Experience
Research ecologist, Fort Collins Science Center, U. S. Geological Survey, Ft. Collins, CO: 2011 - present
Ecologist, Fort Collins Science Center, U. S. Geological Survey, Ft. Collins, CO: 2000 - 2011
Education and Certifications
Ph.D., Colorado State University (Ecology), 2004
B.S., University of New Mexico, NM (Double major: Biology and Anthropology), 1998
Science and Products
The Role of Climate in Shaping Invasive Plant Abundance across Different Spatial Locations
Species Distribution Modeling
Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM) and VisTrails/SAHM Training
For classes in the SAHM/Vis-trails software, please contact Catherine Jarnevich. The Resource for Advanced Modeling room is located within the USGS Fort Collins Science Center in Fort Collins, CO.
Documenting, Mapping, and Predicting Invasive Species Using the Fort Collins Science Center's RAM (Resource for Advanced Modeling)
Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM)
Developing Ecological Forecasting Models for Invasive Species
Facilitating the USGS Scientific Data Management Foundation by integrating the process into current scientific workflow systems
NEON Workshop: Operationalizing Ecological Forecasts
Integrating ecological forecasting methods to improve applications for natural resource management: An invasive species example
Data for modeling fountain grass and bishop's goutweed in the contiguous US
Non-native and synanthropic bird data derived from 2010-2012 Breeding Bird Survey and associated landscape metrics from 2011 NLCD
State-and-Transition Simulation Model of Buffelgrass in Saguaro National Park (2014-2044)
Data for cheatgrass mapping in Squirrel Creek Wildfire and Arapaho Wildfire, WY in 2014
Workflow to create global species distribution model for Bombina orientalis, Xenopus laevis, and Pomacea from GBIF data and climate, land cover, topography, and MODIS derived predictors
Data for modeling tegu lizard distributions in the Americas
Data for forecasting buffelgrass distribution with global distribution data, local data, and physiological information
Cheatgrass mapping in Squirrel Creek Wildfire, WY in 2014
Data associated with Sofaer and Jarnevich 'Accounting for sampling patterns reverses the relative importance of trade and climate for the global sharing of exotic plants'
Grassification and fast-evolving fire connectivity and risk in the Sonoran Desert, United States
Challenges in updating habitat suitability models: An example with the lesser prairie-chicken
Modelling presence versus abundance for invasive species risk assessment
Tools and technologies for quantifying spread and impacts of invasive species
Assessing ecological uncertainty and simulation model sensitivity to evaluate an invasive plant species’ potential impacts to the landscape
A modeling workflow that balances automation and human intervention to inform invasive plant management decisions at multiple spatial scales
Human-associated species dominate passerine communities across the United States
The development and delivery of species distribution models to inform decision-making
Developing an expert elicited simulation model to evaluate invasive species and fire management alternatives
The area under the precision‐recall curve as a performance metric for rare binary events
Not so normal normals: Species distribution model results are sensitive to choice of climate normals and model type
Iterative models for early detection of invasive species across spread pathways
Science and Products
- Science
Filter Total Items: 21
The Role of Climate in Shaping Invasive Plant Abundance across Different Spatial Locations
Invasive plants are a major land management problem in the Western U.S. Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is the most prominent and problematic invader in cold deserts, with negative effects on rangeland fire patterns, wildlife habitats, and forage/vegetation. Red brome (B. madritensis) is an invader in the Mojave Desert, and can similarly introduce a new fire patterns to sensitive warm desert scrub. TSpecies Distribution Modeling
A requirement for managing a species, be it a common native species, a species of conservation concern, or an invasive species, is having some information on its distribution and potential drivers of distribution. Branch scientists have been tackling the question of where these types of species are and where they might be in the future.Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM) and VisTrails/SAHM Training
For classes in the SAHM/Vis-trails software, please contact Catherine Jarnevich. The Resource for Advanced Modeling room is located within the USGS Fort Collins Science Center in Fort Collins, CO.
Documenting, Mapping, and Predicting Invasive Species Using the Fort Collins Science Center's RAM (Resource for Advanced Modeling)
The Resource for Advanced Modeling room provides a collaborative working environment for up to 20 scientists, supported with networked, wireless computing capability for running and testing various scientific models (e.g., Maxent, Boosted Regression Trees, Logistic Regression, MARS, Random Forest) at a variety of spatial scales, from county to global levels. Models use various predictor layers...Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM)
Branch scientists have developed the Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM), a modeling facility for collaborative research both within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and with the wider research community. The facility provides a collaborative working environment for up to 20 scientists from within the USGS and the wider research community. There are networked, wireless computing facilities with...Developing Ecological Forecasting Models for Invasive Species
Forecasts of where species might be and what impacts they may have are necessary for management of invasive species. Researchers at FORT are using various approaches to provided needed information to resource managers to combat invasive plants, animals, and disease organisms.Facilitating the USGS Scientific Data Management Foundation by integrating the process into current scientific workflow systems
Increasing attention is being paid to the importance of proper scientific data management and implementing processes that ensure that products being released are properly documented. USGS policies have been established to properly document not only publications, but also the related data and software. This relatively recent expansion of documentation requirements for data and software may presenNEON Workshop: Operationalizing Ecological Forecasts
Ecosystems are changing worldwide and critical decisions that affect ecosystem health and sustainability are being made every day. As ecologists, we have a responsibility to ensure that these decisions are made with access to the best available science. However, to bring this idea into practice, ecology needs to make a substantial leap forward towards becoming a more predictive science. FurthermorIntegrating ecological forecasting methods to improve applications for natural resource management: An invasive species example
Projecting the effects of climate change on plant and animal species distributions and abundance is critical to successful long‐term conservation and restoration efforts. There have been significant recent advances made in the areas of: (1) climate forecasts; (2) habitat niche modeling; (3) mechanistic modeling; and (4) observation techniques and networks. However, projections of biological change - Data
Filter Total Items: 21
Data for modeling fountain grass and bishop's goutweed in the contiguous US
This data bundle contains the merged data sets to create models for bishop's goutweed and fountaingrass using the VisTrails:SAHM [SAHM 2.1.0]. We developed species distribution models for both species following a workflow designed to balance automation and human intervention to produce models for invasive plant species of concern to U.S. land managers. Location data came from existing databases agNon-native and synanthropic bird data derived from 2010-2012 Breeding Bird Survey and associated landscape metrics from 2011 NLCD
Locations of and proportional abundance of non-native and synanthropic passerines were extracted from Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data from 2010-2012. Information characterizing the spatial variation and the associated amount, aggregation, and diversity of developed and agricultural land cover types was extracted from the National Land Cover Datasets of 2011. Data supported analyses in the publicatState-and-Transition Simulation Model of Buffelgrass in Saguaro National Park (2014-2044)
This is a spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation model of buffelgrass dynamics in Saguaro National Park. Buffelgrass is an invasive grass spreading in the park. The model represents uninvaded and invaded parts of the desert ecosystem including transition pathways related to management activities and includes a connection to a fire behavior model. The model was built using the ST-Sim soData for cheatgrass mapping in Squirrel Creek Wildfire and Arapaho Wildfire, WY in 2014
This data bundle contains some of the inputs, all of the processing instructions and all outputs from a single VisTrails/SAHM workflow. This model specifically includes field data of locations with >40% cover of cheatgrass (presence) andWorkflow to create global species distribution model for Bombina orientalis, Xenopus laevis, and Pomacea from GBIF data and climate, land cover, topography, and MODIS derived predictors
This data bundle contains some of the inputs, all of the processing instructions and all outputs from a single VisTrails/SAHM workflow. This model specifically includes location data for Bombina orientalis and random background locations. Predictors include climatic, topographic, and land cover rasters. The three bundle documentation files are: 1) '_archive_bundle_metadata.xml' which contains FData for modeling tegu lizard distributions in the Americas
This data bundle contains some of the inputs, all of the processing instructions and all outputs from a single VisTrails/SAHM workflow. This model specifically includes field data of thinned occurrence locations and random background locations and un-thinned occurrence locations and targeted background locations for three species of tegu lizards in South America. Predictors included bioclimatic, tData for forecasting buffelgrass distribution with global distribution data, local data, and physiological information
This data bundle contains some of the inputs, all of the processing instructions and all outputs from two VisTrails/SAHM workflows, one creating a global habitat suitability model for buffelgrass and another creating a habitat suitability model for buffelgrass in Saguaro National Park, AZ. The bundle documentation files are: 1) '_archive_bundle_metadata.xml' (this file) which contains FGDC metadatCheatgrass mapping in Squirrel Creek Wildfire, WY in 2014
This data bundle contains some of the inputs, all of the processing instructions and all outputs from two VisTrails/SAHM workflow. These models specifically include field data of locations with >40% cover of cheatgrass (presence) andData associated with Sofaer and Jarnevich 'Accounting for sampling patterns reverses the relative importance of trade and climate for the global sharing of exotic plants'
These data were analyzed for the publication 'Accounting for sampling patterns reverses the relative importance of trade and climate for the global sharing of exotic plants': Aim: Exotic species distributions reflect patterns of human-mediated dispersal, species climatic tolerances, and a suite of other biotic and abiotic factors. The relative importance of each of these factors will shape how the - Multimedia
- Publications
Filter Total Items: 105
Grassification and fast-evolving fire connectivity and risk in the Sonoran Desert, United States
In the southwestern United States, non-native grass invasions have increased wildfire occurrence in deserts and the likelihood of fire spread to and from other biomes with disparate fire regimes. The elevational transition between desertscrub and montane grasslands, woodlands, and forests generally occurs at ∼1,200 masl and has experienced fast suburbanization and an expanding wildland-urban interAuthorsBenjamin T. Wilder, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Elizabeth Baldwin, Joseph S. Black, Kim A. Franklin, Perry Grissom, Katherine Hovanes, Aaryn Olsson, Jim Malusa, Abu S.M.G. Kibria, Yue M. Li, Aaron M. Lien, Alejandro Ponce, Julia A. Rowe, Jose Soto, Maya Stahl, Nicholas Young, Julio L. BetancourtChallenges in updating habitat suitability models: An example with the lesser prairie-chicken
Habitat loss from land-use change is one of the top causes of declines in wildlife species of concern. As such, it is critical to assess and reassess habitat suitability as land cover and anthropogenic features change for both monitoring and developing current information to inform management decisions. However, there are obstacles that must be overcome to develop consistent assessments through tiAuthorsCatherine S. Jarnevich, Pairsa Nicole Belamaric, Kent Fricke, Mike Houts, Liza Rossi, Grant M. Beauprez, Brett Cooper, Russell MartinModelling presence versus abundance for invasive species risk assessment
AimInvasive species prevention and management can be guided by comparisons of invasion risk across space and among species. Species distribution models are widely used to assess invasion risk and typically estimate suitability for species presence. However, suitability for presence may not capture patterns of abundance and impact. We asked how models estimating suitability for presence versus suitAuthorsCatherine S. Jarnevich, Helen Sofaer, Peder EngelstadTools and technologies for quantifying spread and impacts of invasive species
The need for tools and technologies for understanding and quantifying invasive species has never been greater. Rates of infestation vary on the species or organism being examined across the United States, and notable examples can be found. For example, from 2001 to 2003 alone, ash (Fraxinus spp.) mortality progressed at a rate of 12.97 km year −1 (Siegert et al. 2014), and cheatgrass (Bromus tectoAuthorsMatt Reeves, Ines Ibanez, Dana Blumenthal, Gang Chen, Qinfeng Guo, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Jennifer Koch, Frank Sapio, Michael D. Schwartz, Ross K. Meentemeyer, Bruce Wylie, Stephen P. BoyteAssessing ecological uncertainty and simulation model sensitivity to evaluate an invasive plant species’ potential impacts to the landscape
Ecological forecasts of the extent and impacts of invasive species can inform conservation management decisions. Such forecasts are hampered by ecological uncertainties associated with non-analog conditions resulting from the introduction of an invader to an ecosystem. We developed a state-and-transition simulation model tied to a fire behavior model to simulate the spread of buffelgrass (CenchrusAuthorsCatherine S. Jarnevich, Nicholas E. Young, Catherine Cullinane Thomas, Perry Grissom, Dana M. Backer, Leonardo FridA modeling workflow that balances automation and human intervention to inform invasive plant management decisions at multiple spatial scales
Predictions of habitat suitability for invasive plant species can guide risk assessments at regional and national scales and inform early detection and rapid-response strategies at local scales. We present a general approach to invasive species modeling and mapping that meets objectives at multiple scales. Our methodology is designed to balance trade-offs between developing highly customized modelAuthorsNicholas E. Young, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Helen Sofaer, Ian Pearse, Julia Sullivan, Peder Engelstad, Thomas J. StohlgrenHuman-associated species dominate passerine communities across the United States
AimHuman development and agriculture can have transformative and homogenizing effects on natural systems, shifting the composition of ecological communities towards non-native and native species that tolerate or thrive under human-dominated conditions. These impacts cannot be fully captured by summarizing species presence, as they include dramatic changes to patterns of species abundance. However,AuthorsHelen Sofaer, Curtis H. Flather, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Kristin P. Davis, Liba PejcharThe development and delivery of species distribution models to inform decision-making
Information on where species occur is central to conservation and management decisions, but knowledge of distributions can be coarse or incomplete. Species distribution models provide a tool for mapping suitable habitat, and can produce credible, defensible, and repeatable predictive information with which to inform decisions. However, these models are sensitive to data inputs and methodological cAuthorsHelen Sofaer, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Ian Pearse, Regan L Smyth, Stephanie Auer, Cook Gericke L, Thomas C. Edwards, Gerald F. Guala, Timothy G Howard, Jeffrey T. Morisette, Healy HamiltonDeveloping an expert elicited simulation model to evaluate invasive species and fire management alternatives
Invasive species can alter ecosystem properties and cause state shifts in landscapes. Resource managers charged with maintaining landscapes require tools to understand implications of alternative actions (or inactions) on landscape structure and function. Simulation models can serve as a virtual laboratory to explore these alternatives and their potential impacts on a landscape. To be useful, howeAuthorsCatherine S. Jarnevich, Catherine Cullinane Thomas, Nicholas E. Young, Dana M. Backer, Sarah A. Cline, Leonardo Frid, Perry GrissomThe area under the precision‐recall curve as a performance metric for rare binary events
Species distribution models are used to study biogeographic patterns and guide decision‐making. The variable quality of these models makes it critical to assess whether a model's outputs are suitable for the intended use, but commonly used evaluation approaches are inappropriate for many ecological contexts. In particular, unrealistically high performance assessments have been associated with modeAuthorsHelen Sofaer, Jennifer A. Hoeting, Catherine S. JarnevichNot so normal normals: Species distribution model results are sensitive to choice of climate normals and model type
Species distribution models have many applications in conservation and ecology, and climate data are frequently a key driver of these models. Often, correlative modeling approaches are developed with readily available climate data; however, the impacts of the choice of climate normals is rarely considered. Here, we produced species distribution models for five disparate species using four differenAuthorsCatherine S. Jarnevich, Nicholas E. YoungIterative models for early detection of invasive species across spread pathways
Species distribution models can be used to direct early detection of invasive species, if they include proxies for invasion pathways. Due to the dynamic nature of invasion, these models violate assumptions of stationarity across space and time. To compensate for issues of stationarity, we iteratively update regionalized species distribution models annually for European gypsy moth (Lymantria disparAuthorsGericke Cook, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Melissa Warden, Marla Downing, John Withrow, I. Leinwand - Software
- News