Dale Alan Cox
Dale A. Cox is currently the Project Manager for USGS Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) and former Regional Hazards Coordinator for the USGS Pacific Region (California, Nevada, Hawaii and Pacific Islands), Region IX Chair of the Department of Interior, Regional Emergency Coordination Council. Cox was one of the creators and the Project Manager of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) where he coordinated the work of over 300 scientists and experts in 2008 to create the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario, the most comprehensive earthquake scenario ever created. He is one several people awarded the USGS Eugene M. Shoemaker award for the “The Great ShakeOut Campaign“, that resulted in the largest emergency response exercise in the Nation’s history, now an international event, occurring annually with nearly 23 million people participating.
Cox also led “ARkStorm,” a disaster scenario examining modern impacts of a storm analogous to those that impacted California in 1861/62. He coordinated the 2010 Tsunami Summit in Kauai to improve community resiliency in the Pacific and the 2011 USGS post-fire response to the massive and devastating wildfires that struck Arizona and New Mexico. Cox also managed the recently released HayWired earthquake scenario, a scientifically plausible and detailed depiction of a M7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault.
Dale A. Cox joined the US Geological Survey in 1994, where he surveyed and reported on the hydrologic conditions of the High Plains Aquifer. He was a coordinator of the Lake Tahoe Presidential Forum and the bathymetric mapping of Lake Tahoe. Cox also served as a coordinator of the National Oceans Conference, another presidential forum to raise awareness and develop global partnerships to tackle ocean issues.
Science and Products
The HayWired earthquake scenario—We can outsmart disaster
The HayWired earthquake scenario, led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), anticipates the impacts of a hypothetical magnitude-7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The fault is along the east side of California’s San Francisco Bay and is among the most active and dangerous in the United States, because it runs through a densely urbanized and...Hudnut, Kenneth W.; Wein, Anne M.; Cox, Dale A.; Porter, Keith A.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Bruce, Jennifer L.; LaPointe, Drew
The HayWired Earthquake Scenario
ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of...Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.
Get your science used—Six guidelines to improve your products
Introduction Natural scientists, like many other experts, face challenges when communicating to people outside their fields of expertise. This is especially true when they try to communicate to those whose background, knowledge, and experience are far distant from that field of expertise. At a recent workshop, experts in risk communication offered...Perry, Suzanne C.; Blanpied, Michael L.; Burkett, Erin R.; Campbell, Nnenia M.; Carlson, Anders; Cox, Dale A.; Driedger, Carolyn L.; Eisenman, David P.; Fox-Glassman, Katherine T.; Hoffman, Sherry; Hoffman, Susanna M.; Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Jones, Lucile M.; Luco, Nicolas; Marx, Sabine M.; McGowan, Sean M.; Mileti, Dennis S.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Ozman, David; Pastor, Elizabeth; Petersen, Mark D.; Porter, Keith A.; Ramsey, David W.; Ritchie, Liesel A.; Fitzpatrick, Jessica K.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Sellnow, Timothy L.; Vaughon, Wendy L.; Wald, David J.; Wald, Lisa A.; Wein, Anne; Zarcadoolas, Christina
Application of an extreme winter storm scenario to identify vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA
In the Sierra Nevada mountains (USA), and geographically similar areas across the globe where human development is expanding, extreme winter storm and flood risks are expected to increase with changing climate, heightening the need for communities to assess risks and better prepare for such events. In this case study, we demonstrate a novel...Albano, Christine M.; Dettinger, Michael; McCarthy, Maureen; Schaller, Kevin D.; Wellborn, Toby; Cox, Dale A.
ARkStorm@Tahoe: Stakeholder perspectives on vulnerabilities and preparedness for an extreme storm event in the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno, and Carson City region
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are strongly linked to extreme winter precipitation events in the Western U.S., accounting for 80 percent of extreme floods in the Sierra Nevada and surrounding lowlands. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the ARkStorm extreme storm scenario for California to quantify risks from extreme winter storms and to...Albano, Christine M.; Cox, Dale A.; Dettinger, Michael; Shaller, Kevin; Welborn, Toby L.; McCarthy, Maureen
USGS science at work in the San Francisco Bay and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta estuary
The San Francisco Bay and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta form one of the largest estuaries in the United States. The “Bay-Delta” system provides water to more than 25 million California residents and vast farmlands, as well as key habitat for birds, fish, and other wildlife. To help ensure the health of this crucial estuary, the U.S. Geological...Shouse, Michelle K.; Cox, Dale A.
Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California
The USGS Multihazards Project is working with numerous agencies to evaluate and plan for hazards and damages that could be caused by extreme winter storms impacting California. Atmospheric and hydrological aspects of a hypothetical storm scenario have been quantified as a basis for estimation of human, infrastructure, economic, and environmental...Dettinger, M.D.; Martin, Ralph F.; Hughes, M.; Das, T.; Neiman, P.; Cox, D.; Estes, G.; Reynolds, D.; Hartman, R.; Cayan, D.; Jones, L.
Overview of the ARkStorm scenario
The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for...Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles N.; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile
The ShakeOut scenario: A hypothetical Mw7.8 earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault
In 2008, an earthquake-planning scenario document was released by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and California Geological Survey that hypothesizes the occurrence and effects of a Mw7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was created by more than 300 scientists and engineers. Fault offsets reach 13 m and up to 8 m at lifeline...Porter, K.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.; Goltz, J.; Hudnut, K.; Mileti, D.; Perry, S.; Ponti, D.; Reichle, M.; Rose, A.Z.; Scawthorn, C.R.; Seligson, H.A.; Shoaf, K.I.; Treiman, J.; Wein, A.
The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario - A Story That Southern Californians Are Writing
The question is not if but when southern California will be hit by a major earthquake - one so damaging that it will permanently change lives and livelihoods in the region. How severe the changes will be depends on the actions that individuals, schools, businesses, organizations, communities, and governments take to get ready. To help prepare for...Perry, Suzanne; Cox, Dale; Jones, Lucile; Bernknopf, Richard; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne
The ShakeOut Scenario
This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness...Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne
Increasing resiliency to natural hazards - A strategic plan for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is initiating a new project designed to improve resiliency to natural hazards in southern California through the application of science to community decision making and emergency response. The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project will assist the region’s communities to reduce their risk from natural hazards by...Jones, Lucy; Bernknopf, Richard; Cannon, Susan; Cox, Dale A.; Gaydos, Len; Keeley, Jon; Kohler, Monica; Lee, Homa; Ponti, Daniel; Ross, Stephanie L.; Schwarzbach, Steven; Shulters, Michael; Ward, A. Wesley; Wein, Anne
The HayWired earthquake scenario, led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), anticipates the impacts of a hypothetical magnitude-7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The fault is along the east side of California’s San Francisco Bay and is among the most active and dangerous in the United States, because it runs through a densely urbanized and interconnected region.
Get Ready! Analyses of impacts related to the HayWired earthquake scenario include estimates for potential fatalities, injuries, water outages, fires, and other major disruptions. These could potentially include: 800 deaths, 16,000 nonfatal injuries, property and direct business interruption losses of more than $82 billion from from shaking alone. The USGS and its partners are working to energize residents and businesses to engage in new and ongoing efforts to prepare the region for such a future earthquake. Learn more: usgs.gov/haywired
The next Great ShakeOut earthquake drill will be held on October 18, 2012. During the drill, participants will ‘drop, cover, and hold on’ to practice how to protect themselves during an earthquake.
To give us some details on ShakeOut, we are joined by two guests. First is Mike Blanpied, who is the Associate Program Coordinator for the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program. Second is Mark Benthien, who is the Director of Communication, Education and Outreach with the Southern California Earthquake Center and also coordinates the Great ShakeOut worldwide.
Secretary of the Interior Dirk Kempthorne and USGS Director Mark Myers reflect on the successes of The Great Southern California ShakeOut—the largest earthquake preparedness drill in U.S. history.
This film takes you on a visceral journey through the USGS ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario.
The film was created by the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in cooperation with the Designmatters program at Art Center to depict the physical, social, and economic consequences of the most comprehensive earthquake scenario ever created. The film gives the viewers a sense of what will be happening and inspires them to prepare and mitigate for a faster recovery. The premise underlying the film is that design is a powerful catalyst that can bridge the divide between scientific understanding about damaging quakes, and the ability of the public to feel empowered and to change their behavior in terms of preparedness.
USGS collaborates with key academic, state, local, and industry partners to provide a new look at what could happen during a major earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area.
ESC Seminar: HayWired Scenario Progress Discussion
Now Planning for 2009
Los Angeles - It's working! On November 13, 2008 more than 5.47 million people in southern California participated in The Great Southern California ShakeOut, now officially the largest earthquake drill in the Nation's history - and according to some community leaders, a success that should be practiced every year.