Eric Geist
Eric Geist is a research geophysicist with the USGS in Moffett Field, California, where he has worked for over three decades. Throughout his career, he has focused on computer modeling of geophysical phenomena, including large-scale deformation of the earth in response to tectonic forces and the physics of tsunami generation.
For over a decade now, Eric's research has focused on improving our ability to forecast tsunamis and their sources. Eric has authored over 120 journal articles and abstracts, including an article in Scientific American on the devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and several review papers on tsunamis.
Research Statement
Natural hazards are the product of complex physical systems. Eric’s research currently focuses on the new field of earthquake combinatorics. This research examines combinations and arrangements of earthquakes on faults to explain a variety of geophysical and geological datasets. Tackling the size of combinatorial problems for fault-scale systems has only recently been made possible through advances in applied mathematics and computer science over the last decade. With newly developed computer algorithms, earthquake combinatorics provides an avenue to investigate earthquake hazards for both offshore and onshore faults.
Eric also investigates the interplay between nonlinear dynamics and a probabilistic description of geophysical processes, particularly as applied to natural hazards and their sources. Recent developments in statistical physics provide many avenues for understanding natural hazards, including how source sizes and outcomes are distributed and how individual natural hazard events occur through time. In addition, stochastic models provide a way to quantify uncertainty associated with source processes as applied to hazard assessments. A natural product of this research is development of new probabilistic methods to forecast natural hazards.
Eric has also examined nonlinear processes associated with long-term and large-scale deformation of the Earth’s lithosphere. Specific projects have included understanding the seismotectonics of island arcs and determining the state of stress and slip rates along major plate-boundary fault systems.
Research Management
2012 – 2017: Co-Leader of Marine Geohazards Project, USGS
2005 – 2012: Co-Leader of Caribbean Tsunami Hazards Project, USGS
2004 – 2007: Co-Leader of FEMA Probabilistic Tsunami Pilot Study: Seaside, Oregon
1998 – 2004: Leader of Modeling and Probabilistic Analysis of Coastal Change Hazards Project, USGS
1989 – 1994: Leader of Geodynamic Modeling of Island Arcs Project, USGS
Professional Experience
1992 – Present: Research Geophysicist, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
1986 – 1991: Operational Geophysicist, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
1985 – 1986: Physical Science Technician, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
Education and Certifications
1985 - M.Sc. in Geophysics, Stanford University
1983 – B.Sc. in Geophysical Engineering, Colorado School of Mines
Honors and Awards
2002, 2011, 2018: American Geophysical Union, Editor’s Citation for Excellence in Refereeing
2005: USGS Western Region, Communicator of the Year Award (co-honoree)
1994: Department of the Interior Superior Service Award
1994: Fellow, Geological Society of America
Science and Products
Preliminary Simulations of Recent Tsunamis
Preliminary Analysis of the 2009 Samoa Tsunami
Preliminary Analysis of the Tsunami Generated by the June 23, 2001 Peru Earthquake
Descriptive Model of the July 17, 1998 Papua New Guinea Tsunami
Offshore landslide hazard curves from mapped landslide size distributions
Characteristic earthquake magnitude frequency distributions on faults calculated from consensus data in California
Effect of dynamical phase on the resonant interaction among tsunami edge wave modes
Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume III”
Determining on-fault earthquake magnitude distributions from integer programming
Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis: Multiple sources and global applications
Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume II”
Reducing risk where tectonic plates collide—U.S. Geological Survey subduction zone science plan
Book review: Physics of tsunamis
Book review: Extreme ocean waves
A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources
Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume I”
Science and Products
- Science
Filter Total Items: 16
Preliminary Simulations of Recent Tsunamis
A collection of computer simulations of significant tsunamis.Preliminary Analysis of the 2009 Samoa Tsunami
The tsunami that was triggered by a magnitude 8.1 earthquake on September 29, 2009, caused significant damage and loss of life on Samoa, American Samoa, and Tonga. In the hopes that disasters such as this can be minimized in the future, we attempt to understand the mechanism and impact of this tsunami. The information presented here is focused on geologic aspects of the disaster.Preliminary Analysis of the Tsunami Generated by the June 23, 2001 Peru Earthquake
A preliminary analysis of the tsunami generated by the June 23, 2001 Peru earthquake is presented here.Descriptive Model of the July 17, 1998 Papua New Guinea Tsunami
The tsunami that struck New Guinea on July 17, 1998 was the most devastating tsunami since the 1976 Moro Gulf, Philippines, tsunami and may surpass that event (Lockridge and Smith, 1984; Satake and Imamura, 1995). The high reported runups and the tremendous loss of life are of great concern to all, including the international scientific community. Scientists closely examined this event in hopes of... - Multimedia
- Publications
Filter Total Items: 118
Offshore landslide hazard curves from mapped landslide size distributions
We present a method to calculate landslide hazard curves along offshore margins based on size distributions of submarine landslides. The method analyzes ten different continental margins, that were mapped by high-resolution multibeam sonar with landslide scar areas measured by a consistent GIS procedure. Statistical tests of several different probability distribution models indicate that the lognoAuthorsEric L. Geist, Uri S. ten BrinkCharacteristic earthquake magnitude frequency distributions on faults calculated from consensus data in California
An estimate of the expected earthquake rate at all possible magnitudes is needed for seismic hazard forecasts. Regional earthquake magnitude frequency distributions obey a negative exponential law (Gutenberg‐Richter), but it's unclear if individual faults do. We add three new methods to calculate long‐term California earthquake rupture rates to the existing Uniform California Earthquake Rupture FoAuthorsThomas E. Parsons, Eric L. Geist, Rodolfo Console, Roberto CarluccioEffect of dynamical phase on the resonant interaction among tsunami edge wave modes
Different modes of tsunami edge waves can interact through nonlinear resonance. During this process, edge waves that have very small initial amplitude can grow to be as large or larger than the initially dominant edge wave modes. In this study, the effects of dynamical phase are established for a single triad of edge waves that participate in resonant interactions. In previous studies, Jacobi elliAuthorsEric L. GeistIntroduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume III”
Twenty papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume III of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 and Volume II as PAGEOPH, vol. 174, No. 8, 2017. Two papers in Volume III focus on specific details of the 2009 Samoa and the 1923 northern Kamchatka tsunamis; they are followed by tAuthorsAlexander B. Rabinovich, Hermann M. Fritz, Yuichiro Tanioka, Eric L. GeistDetermining on-fault earthquake magnitude distributions from integer programming
Earthquake magnitude distributions among faults within a fault system are determined from regional seismicity and fault slip rates using binary integer programming. A synthetic earthquake catalog (i.e., list of randomly sampled magnitudes) that spans millennia is first formed, assuming that regional seismicity follows a Gutenberg-Richter relation. Each earthquake in the synthetic catalog can occurAuthorsEric L. Geist, Thomas E. ParsonsProbabilistic tsunami hazard analysis: Multiple sources and global applications
Applying probabilistic methods to infrequent but devastating natural events is intrinsically challenging. For tsunami analyses, a suite of geophysical assessments should be in principle evaluated because of the different causes generating tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity, meteorological events, and asteroid impacts) with varying mean recurrence rates. Probabilistic Tsunami HazaAuthorsAnita Grezio, Andrey Babeyko, Maria Ana Baptista, Jörn Behrens, Antonio Costa, Gareth Davies, Eric L. Geist, Sylfest Glimsdal, Frank I. González, Jonathan Griffin, Carl B. Harbitz, Randall J. LeVeque, Stefano Lorito, Finn Løvholt, Rachid Omira, Christof Mueller, Raphaël Paris, Thomas E. Parsons, Jascha Polet, William Power, Jacopo Selva, Mathilde B. Sørensen, Hong Kie ThioIntroduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume II”
Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 (Eds., E. L. Geist, H. M. Fritz, A. B. Rabinovich, and Y. Tanioka). Three papers in Volume II focus on details of the 2011 and 2016 tsunami-generating earthquakes offshore of TohoAuthorsAlexander B. Rabinovich, Hermann M. Fritz, Yuichiro Tanioka, Eric L. GeistReducing risk where tectonic plates collide—U.S. Geological Survey subduction zone science plan
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) serves the Nation by providing reliable scientific information and tools to build resilience in communities exposed to subduction zone earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. Improving the application of USGS science to successfully reduce risk from these events relies on whole community efforts, with continuing partnerships among scientists andAuthorsJoan S. Gomberg, K. A. Ludwig, Barbara Bekins, Thomas M. Brocher, John Brock, Daniel S. Brothers, Jason D. Chaytor, Arthur Frankel, Eric L. Geist, Matthew M. Haney, Stephen H. Hickman, William S. Leith, Evelyn A. Roeloffs, William H. Schulz, Thomas W. Sisson, Kristi L. Wallace, Janet Watt, Anne M. WeinBook review: Physics of tsunamis
“Physics of Tsunamis”, second edition, provides a comprehensive analytical treatment of the hydrodynamics associated with the tsunami generation process. The book consists of seven chapters covering 388 pages. Because the subject matter within each chapter is distinct, an abstract appears at the beginning and references appear at the end of each chapter, rather than at the end of the book. VariousAuthorsEric L. GeistBook review: Extreme ocean waves
“Extreme Ocean Waves”, edited by E. Pelinovsky and C. Kharif, second edition, Springer International Publishing, 2016; ISBN: 978-3-319-21574-7, ISBN (eBook): 978-3-319-21575-4The second edition of “Extreme Ocean Waves” published by Springer is an update of a collection of 12 papers edited by Efim Pelinovsky and Christian Kharif following the April 2007 meeting of the General Assembly of the EuropeAuthorsEric L. GeistA global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources
Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are requAuthorsGareth Davies, Jonathan Griffin, Finn Lovholt, Sylfest Glimsdal, Carl Harbitz, Hong Kie Thio, Stefano Lorito, Roberto Basili, Jacopo Selva, Eric L. Geist, Maria Ana BaptistaIntroduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume I”
Twenty-five papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Six papers examine various aspects of tsunami probability and uncertainty analysis related to hazard assessment. Three papers relate to deterministic hazard and risk assessment. Five more papers present new methods for tsunami warning and detection. Six paperAuthorsEric L. Geist, Hermann Fritz, Alexander B. Rabinovich, Yuichiro Tanioka - News