Idealized animation of tsunamis produced by the 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha‛apai volcano in the Kingdom of Tonga. View to the southeast.
Eric Geist
Eric Geist is a research geophysicist with the USGS in Moffett Field, California, where he has worked for over three decades. Throughout his career, he has focused on computer modeling of geophysical phenomena, including large-scale deformation of the earth in response to tectonic forces and the physics of tsunami generation.
For over a decade now, Eric's research has focused on improving our ability to forecast tsunamis and their sources. Eric has authored over 120 journal articles and abstracts, including an article in Scientific American on the devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and several review papers on tsunamis.
Research Statement
Natural hazards are the product of complex physical systems. Eric’s research currently focuses on the new field of earthquake combinatorics. This research examines combinations and arrangements of earthquakes on faults to explain a variety of geophysical and geological datasets. Tackling the size of combinatorial problems for fault-scale systems has only recently been made possible through advances in applied mathematics and computer science over the last decade. With newly developed computer algorithms, earthquake combinatorics provides an avenue to investigate earthquake hazards for both offshore and onshore faults.
Eric also investigates the interplay between nonlinear dynamics and a probabilistic description of geophysical processes, particularly as applied to natural hazards and their sources. Recent developments in statistical physics provide many avenues for understanding natural hazards, including how source sizes and outcomes are distributed and how individual natural hazard events occur through time. In addition, stochastic models provide a way to quantify uncertainty associated with source processes as applied to hazard assessments. A natural product of this research is development of new probabilistic methods to forecast natural hazards.
Eric has also examined nonlinear processes associated with long-term and large-scale deformation of the Earth’s lithosphere. Specific projects have included understanding the seismotectonics of island arcs and determining the state of stress and slip rates along major plate-boundary fault systems.
Research Management
2012 – 2017: Co-Leader of Marine Geohazards Project, USGS
2005 – 2012: Co-Leader of Caribbean Tsunami Hazards Project, USGS
2004 – 2007: Co-Leader of FEMA Probabilistic Tsunami Pilot Study: Seaside, Oregon
1998 – 2004: Leader of Modeling and Probabilistic Analysis of Coastal Change Hazards Project, USGS
1989 – 1994: Leader of Geodynamic Modeling of Island Arcs Project, USGS
Professional Experience
1992 – Present: Research Geophysicist, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
1986 – 1991: Operational Geophysicist, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
1985 – 1986: Physical Science Technician, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
Education and Certifications
1985 - M.Sc. in Geophysics, Stanford University
1983 – B.Sc. in Geophysical Engineering, Colorado School of Mines
Honors and Awards
2002, 2011, 2018: American Geophysical Union, Editor’s Citation for Excellence in Refereeing
2005: USGS Western Region, Communicator of the Year Award (co-honoree)
1994: Department of the Interior Superior Service Award
1994: Fellow, Geological Society of America
Science and Products
Could It Happen Here?
The Question: Soon after the devastating tsunamis in the Indian Ocean on December 26, 2004 and in Japan on March 11, 2011, many people have asked, "Could such a tsunami happen in the United States?"
Life of a Tsunami
Life of a Tsunami
Local Tsunamis in the Pacific Northwest
In the past century, several damaging tsunamis have struck the Pacific Northwest coast (Northern California, Oregon, and Washington). All of these tsunamis were distant tsunamis generated from earthquakes located far across the Pacific basin and are distinguished from tsunamis generated by earthquakes near the coast—termed local tsunamis.
Probabilistic Forecasting of Earthquakes, Tsunamis, and Earthquake Effects in the Coastal Zone
Tsunami and Earthquake Research
Tsunami Record from the Great 1906 San Francisco Earthquake
Preliminary Analysis of the April 2007 Solomon Islands Tsunami, Southwest Pacific Ocean
Preliminary simulations of the 2011 Japan tsunami
Preliminary simulation of the 2017 Mexico tsunami
Preliminary simulations of the 2010 Chilean tsunami
Preliminary simulation of the 2010 tsunami in Indonesia
Tsunami Generation from the 2004 M=9.1 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake
Idealized animation of tsunamis produced by the 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha‛apai volcano in the Kingdom of Tonga. View to the southeast.
Idealized animation of tsunamis produced by the 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha‛apai volcano in the Kingdom of Tonga. View to the north-northeast.
Idealized animation of tsunamis produced by the 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha‛apai volcano in the Kingdom of Tonga. View to the north-northeast.
Screenshot of an idealized animation of tsunamis produced by the 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai volcano in the Kingdom of Tonga. View to the north-northeast. The fastest water wave to radiate away from the eruption is being pushed by an atmospheric wave triggered by the explosion.
Screenshot of an idealized animation of tsunamis produced by the 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai volcano in the Kingdom of Tonga. View to the north-northeast. The fastest water wave to radiate away from the eruption is being pushed by an atmospheric wave triggered by the explosion.
Bayesian hierarchical modeling for probabilistic estimation of tsunami amplitude from far-field earthquake sources
Combinatorial optimization of earthquake spatial distributions under minimum cumulative stress constraints
“Aftershock Faults” and what they could mean for seismic hazard assessment
Crustal permeability changes observed from seismic attenuation: Impacts on multi-mainshock sequences
Earthquake magnitude distributions on northern Caribbean faults from combinatorial optimization models
On-fault earthquake magnitude distributions are calculated for northern Caribbean faults using estimates of fault slip and regional seismicity parameters. Integer programming, a combinatorial optimization method, is used to determine the optimal spatial arrangement of earthquakes sampled from a truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution that minimizes the global misfit in slip rates on a complex fau
The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)
On the use of statistical analysis to understand submarine landslide processes and assess their hazard
Distribution of earthquakes on a branching fault system using integer programming and greedy sequential methods
Book Review of "Mathematical Geosciences: Hybrid Symbolic-Numeric Methods", by Joseph L. Awange, Béla Paláncz, Robert H. Lewis, and Lajos Völgyesi
Book review of "Tsunami Propagation in Tidal Rivers", by Elena Tolkova
Tsunamis: Stochastic models of generation, propagation, and occurrence
A combinatorial approach to determine earthquake magnitude distributions on a variable slip-rate fault
Science and Products
- Science
Filter Total Items: 16
Could It Happen Here?
The Question: Soon after the devastating tsunamis in the Indian Ocean on December 26, 2004 and in Japan on March 11, 2011, many people have asked, "Could such a tsunami happen in the United States?"
Life of a Tsunami
Life of a Tsunami
Local Tsunamis in the Pacific Northwest
In the past century, several damaging tsunamis have struck the Pacific Northwest coast (Northern California, Oregon, and Washington). All of these tsunamis were distant tsunamis generated from earthquakes located far across the Pacific basin and are distinguished from tsunamis generated by earthquakes near the coast—termed local tsunamis.
Probabilistic Forecasting of Earthquakes, Tsunamis, and Earthquake Effects in the Coastal Zone
The nation's coastlines are vulnerable to the interrelated hazards posed by earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis. In the marine environment these events often occur in concert, and distant triggers can cause severe local effects, making the issue global in scope. As the population continues to migrate toward the coastlines, the social impacts of these hazards are expected to grow.Tsunami and Earthquake Research
Here you will find general information on the science behind tsunami generation, computer animations of tsunamis, and summaries of past field studies.Tsunami Record from the Great 1906 San Francisco Earthquake
Shortly after the Great San Francisco earthquake of April 18, 1906, a sea level disturbance (tsunami) was recorded at the Presidio tide gauge station in San Francisco (the station is now located nearby at Ft. Point). What type of mechanism (earthquake rupture, landslide, other) generated the tsunami recorded at the Presidio tide gauge station?Preliminary Analysis of the April 2007 Solomon Islands Tsunami, Southwest Pacific Ocean
Information focused on geologic aspects of the April 2007 disaster.Preliminary simulations of the 2011 Japan tsunami
Preliminary simulations of the tsunami from the March 11, 2011 M=9.1 subduction zone earthquake offshore of Honshu, Japan.Preliminary simulation of the 2017 Mexico tsunami
Preliminary simulation of the tsunami from the September 8, 2017 M=8.1 intermediate-depth earthquake offshore of Chiapas, MexicoPreliminary simulations of the 2010 Chilean tsunami
Preliminary simulations of the 2010 Chilean tsunami from the 27 February 2010 M=8.8 subduction zone earthquake, offshore Bio-Bio, ChilePreliminary simulation of the 2010 tsunami in Indonesia
Preliminary simulation of the tsunami from the October 25, 2010 M=7.7 subduction zone earthquake offshore of the Mentawai Islands, IndonesiaTsunami Generation from the 2004 M=9.1 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake
The December 26, 2004 magnitude (M) 9.1 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake occurred along a tectonic subduction zone in which the India Plate, an oceanic plate, is being subducted beneath the Burma micro-plate, part of the larger Sunda plate. The boundary between the downgoing and overriding plates of the subduction zone is marked by the Sunda Trench above. Here we provide a brief overview of the tectonic... - Multimedia
Idealized animation of tsunamis in the Kingdom of TongaIdealized animation of tsunamis in the Kingdom of Tonga
Idealized animation of tsunamis produced by the 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha‛apai volcano in the Kingdom of Tonga. View to the southeast.
Idealized animation of tsunamis produced by the 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha‛apai volcano in the Kingdom of Tonga. View to the southeast.
Idealized animation of tsunamis in the Kingdom of Tonga looking north-northeastIdealized animation of tsunamis in the Kingdom of Tonga looking north-northeastIdealized animation of tsunamis produced by the 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha‛apai volcano in the Kingdom of Tonga. View to the north-northeast.
Idealized animation of tsunamis produced by the 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha‛apai volcano in the Kingdom of Tonga. View to the north-northeast.
Screenshot of a simulated tsunami animationScreenshot of an idealized animation of tsunamis produced by the 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai volcano in the Kingdom of Tonga. View to the north-northeast. The fastest water wave to radiate away from the eruption is being pushed by an atmospheric wave triggered by the explosion.
Screenshot of an idealized animation of tsunamis produced by the 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai volcano in the Kingdom of Tonga. View to the north-northeast. The fastest water wave to radiate away from the eruption is being pushed by an atmospheric wave triggered by the explosion.
- Publications
Filter Total Items: 118
Bayesian hierarchical modeling for probabilistic estimation of tsunami amplitude from far-field earthquake sources
Evaluation of tsunami disaster risk for a coastal region requires reliable estimation of tsunami hazard, for example, wave amplitude close to the shore. Observed tsunami data are scarce and have poor spatial coverage, and for this reason probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) traditionally relies on numerical simulation of “synthetic” tsunami generation and propagation toward the coast. SuchAuthorsGeorgios Boumis, Eric L. Geist, Danhyang LeeCombinatorial optimization of earthquake spatial distributions under minimum cumulative stress constraints
We determine optimal on‐fault earthquake spatial distributions using a combinatorial method that minimizes the long‐term cumulative stress resolved on the fault. An integer‐programming framework was previously developed to determine the optimal arrangement of a millennia‐scale earthquake sample that minimizes the misfit to a target slip rate determined from geodetic data. The resulting cumulativeAuthorsEric L. Geist, Thomas E. Parsons“Aftershock Faults” and what they could mean for seismic hazard assessment
We study stress‐loading mechanisms for the California faults used in rupture forecasts. Stress accumulation drives earthquakes, and that accumulation mechanism governs recurrence. Most moment release in California occurs because of relative motion between the Pacific plate and the Sierra Nevada block; we calculate relative motion directions at fault centers and compare with fault displacement direAuthorsThomas E. Parsons, Eric L. Geist, Sophie E. ParsonsCrustal permeability changes observed from seismic attenuation: Impacts on multi-mainshock sequences
We use amplitude ratios from narrowband-filtered earthquake seismograms to measure variations of seismic attenuation over time, providing unique insights into the dynamic state of stress in the Earth’s crust at depth. Our dataset from earthquakes of the 2016-2017 Central Apennines sequence allows us to obtain high-resolution time histories of seismic attenuation (frequency band: 0.5-30 Hz) charactAuthorsLuca Malagnini, Thomas E. Parsons, Irene Munafo, Simone Mancini, Margarita Segou, Eric L. GeistEarthquake magnitude distributions on northern Caribbean faults from combinatorial optimization models
On-fault earthquake magnitude distributions are calculated for northern Caribbean faults using estimates of fault slip and regional seismicity parameters. Integer programming, a combinatorial optimization method, is used to determine the optimal spatial arrangement of earthquakes sampled from a truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution that minimizes the global misfit in slip rates on a complex fau
AuthorsEric L. Geist, Uri S. ten BrinkThe making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)
The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making procesAuthorsRoberto Basili, Beatriz Brizuela, Andre Herrero, Sarfraz Iqbal, Stefano Lorito, Francesco Emanuele Maesano, Shane Murphy, Paolo Perfetti, Fabrizio Romano, Antonio Scala, Jacopo Selva, Matteo Taroni, Mara Monica Tiberti, Hong Kie Thio, R. Tonini, Manuela Volpe, Sylfest Glimsdal, Carl B. Harbitz, Finn Lovholt, Maria Ana Baptista, Fernando Carrilho, Luis M. A. Matias, Rachid Omira, Andrey Babeyko, Andreas Hoechner, Mucahit Gurbuz, Onur Pekcan, A. Yalciner, Miquel Canals, Galderic Lastras, Apostolos Agalos, Gerassimo Papadapoulos, Ioanna Triantafyllou, Sabah Benchekroun, Hedi Agrebi Jaouadi, Samir Ben Abdallah, Atef Bouallegue, Hassene Hamdi, Foued Oueslati, A. Amato, Alberto Armigliato, Jörn Behrens, Gareth Davies, Daniela Di Bucci, Mauro Dolce, Eric L. Geist, Jose Manuel Gonzalez Vida, Mauricio Gonzalez, Jorges Macias Sanchez, C. Meletti, Ceren Ozer Sozdinler, Marco Pagani, Tom Parsons, Jascha Polet, William Power, Mathilde B. Sorensen, Andrey ZaytsevOn the use of statistical analysis to understand submarine landslide processes and assess their hazard
Because of their inaccessibility, submarine landslides are typically studied individually and at great effort and expense to provide knowledge of the specific site conditions where these landslides occur. Statistical analysis of submarine landslide scars can offer generalized perspectives on the processes that initiate submarine landslides and can help toward hazard assessment in areas that have nAuthorsUri S. ten Brink, Eric L. GeistDistribution of earthquakes on a branching fault system using integer programming and greedy sequential methods
A new global optimization method is used to determine the distribution of earthquakes on a complex, connected fault system. The method, integer programming, has been advanced in the field of operations research, but has not been widely applied to geophysical problems until recently. In this application, we determine the optimal distribution of earthquakes on mapped faults to minimize the globalAuthorsEric L. Geist, Thomas E. ParsonsBook Review of "Mathematical Geosciences: Hybrid Symbolic-Numeric Methods", by Joseph L. Awange, Béla Paláncz, Robert H. Lewis, and Lajos Völgyesi
No abstract available.AuthorsEric L. GeistBook review of "Tsunami Propagation in Tidal Rivers", by Elena Tolkova
No abstract available.AuthorsEric L. GeistTsunamis: Stochastic models of generation, propagation, and occurrence
The devastating consequences of the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunamis have led to increased research into many different aspects of the tsunami phenomenon. In this paper, we review research related to the observed complexity and uncertainty associated with tsunami generation, propagation, and occurrence described and analyzed using a variety of stochastic models. In each case, tsunamAuthorsEric L. Geist, David Oglesby, Kenny RyanA combinatorial approach to determine earthquake magnitude distributions on a variable slip-rate fault
Combinatorial methods are used to determine the spatial distribution of earthquake magnitudes on a fault whose slip rate varies along strike. Input to the problem is a finite sample of earthquake magnitudes that span 5 kyr drawn from a truncated Pareto distribution. The primary constraints to the problem are maximum and minimum values around the target slip-rate function indicating where feasibleAuthorsEric L. Geist, Thomas E. Parsons - News