Eric Geist
Eric Geist is a research geophysicist with the USGS in Moffett Field, California, where he has worked for over three decades. Throughout his career, he has focused on computer modeling of geophysical phenomena, including large-scale deformation of the earth in response to tectonic forces and the physics of tsunami generation.
For over a decade now, Eric's research has focused on improving our ability to forecast tsunamis and their sources. Eric has authored over 120 journal articles and abstracts, including an article in Scientific American on the devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and several review papers on tsunamis.
Research Statement
Natural hazards are the product of complex physical systems. Eric’s research currently focuses on the new field of earthquake combinatorics. This research examines combinations and arrangements of earthquakes on faults to explain a variety of geophysical and geological datasets. Tackling the size of combinatorial problems for fault-scale systems has only recently been made possible through advances in applied mathematics and computer science over the last decade. With newly developed computer algorithms, earthquake combinatorics provides an avenue to investigate earthquake hazards for both offshore and onshore faults.
Eric also investigates the interplay between nonlinear dynamics and a probabilistic description of geophysical processes, particularly as applied to natural hazards and their sources. Recent developments in statistical physics provide many avenues for understanding natural hazards, including how source sizes and outcomes are distributed and how individual natural hazard events occur through time. In addition, stochastic models provide a way to quantify uncertainty associated with source processes as applied to hazard assessments. A natural product of this research is development of new probabilistic methods to forecast natural hazards.
Eric has also examined nonlinear processes associated with long-term and large-scale deformation of the Earth’s lithosphere. Specific projects have included understanding the seismotectonics of island arcs and determining the state of stress and slip rates along major plate-boundary fault systems.
Research Management
2012 – 2017: Co-Leader of Marine Geohazards Project, USGS
2005 – 2012: Co-Leader of Caribbean Tsunami Hazards Project, USGS
2004 – 2007: Co-Leader of FEMA Probabilistic Tsunami Pilot Study: Seaside, Oregon
1998 – 2004: Leader of Modeling and Probabilistic Analysis of Coastal Change Hazards Project, USGS
1989 – 1994: Leader of Geodynamic Modeling of Island Arcs Project, USGS
Professional Experience
1992 – Present: Research Geophysicist, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
1986 – 1991: Operational Geophysicist, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
1985 – 1986: Physical Science Technician, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
Education and Certifications
1985 - M.Sc. in Geophysics, Stanford University
1983 – B.Sc. in Geophysical Engineering, Colorado School of Mines
Honors and Awards
2002, 2011, 2018: American Geophysical Union, Editor’s Citation for Excellence in Refereeing
2005: USGS Western Region, Communicator of the Year Award (co-honoree)
1994: Department of the Interior Superior Service Award
1994: Fellow, Geological Society of America
Science and Products
Tsunami: wave of change
Size distribution of submarine landslides and its implication to tsunami hazard in Puerto Rico
We have established for the first time a size frequency distribution for carbonate submarine slope failures. Using detailed bathymetry along the northern edge of the carbonate platform north of Puerto Rico, we show that the cumulative distribution of slope failure volumes follows a power-law distribution. The power-law exponent of this distribution is similar to those for rock falls on land, comme
Differences in tsunami generation between the December 26, 2004 and March 28, 2005 Sumatra earthquakes
Probabilistic analysis of tsunami hazards
Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Pilot Study— Modernization of FEMA flood hazard maps: GIS data
Triggering of tsunamigenic aftershocks from large strike‐slip earthquakes: Analysis of the November 2000 New Ireland earthquake sequence
[1] The November 2000 New Ireland earthquake sequence started with a Mw = 8.0 left‐lateral main shock on 16 November and was followed by a series of aftershocks with primarily thrust mechanisms. The earthquake sequence was associated with a locally damaging tsunami on the islands of New Ireland and nearby New Britain, Bougainville, and Buka. Results from numerical tsunami‐propagation models of the
Local tsunami hazards in the Pacific Northwest from Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes
No abstract available.
Rapid tsunami models and earthquake source parameters: Far-field and local applications
Comments on potential geologic and seismic hazards affecting coastal Ventura County, California
The tsunami source area of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake estimated from tsunami travel times and its relationship to the 1952 Tokachi-oki earthquake
Effect of structural heterogeneity and slip distribution on coseismic vertical displacement from rupture on the Seattle Fault
Preliminary hydrodynamic analysis of landslide-generated waves in Tidal Inlet, Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska
Science and Products
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Filter Total Items: 16
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Filter Total Items: 118
Tsunami: wave of change
No abstract available.AuthorsEric L. Geist, Vasily V. Titov, Costas E. SynolakisSize distribution of submarine landslides and its implication to tsunami hazard in Puerto Rico
We have established for the first time a size frequency distribution for carbonate submarine slope failures. Using detailed bathymetry along the northern edge of the carbonate platform north of Puerto Rico, we show that the cumulative distribution of slope failure volumes follows a power-law distribution. The power-law exponent of this distribution is similar to those for rock falls on land, comme
AuthorsUri S. ten Brink, E.L. Geist, B.D. AndrewsDifferences in tsunami generation between the December 26, 2004 and March 28, 2005 Sumatra earthquakes
Source parameters affecting tsunami generation and propagation for the Mw > 9.0 December 26, 2004 and the Mw = 8.6 March 28, 2005 earthquakes are examined to explain the dramatic difference in tsunami observations. We evaluate both scalar measures (seismic moment, maximum slip, potential energy) and finite-source repre-sentations (distributed slip and far-field beaming from finite source dimensionAuthorsE.L. Geist, S.L. Bilek, D. Arcas, V.V. TitovProbabilistic analysis of tsunami hazards
Determining the likelihood of a disaster is a key component of any comprehensive hazard assessment. This is particularly true for tsunamis, even though most tsunami hazard assessments have in the past relied on scenario or deterministic type models. We discuss probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) from the standpoint of integrating computational methods with empirical analysis of past tsunaAuthorsE.L. Geist, T. ParsonsSeaside, Oregon, Tsunami Pilot Study— Modernization of FEMA flood hazard maps: GIS data
Introduction: The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Federal Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) guidelines do not currently exist for conducting and incorporating tsunami hazard assessments that reflect the substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in the last two decades; this conclusion is the result of two FEMA-sponsored workshops and the associated Tsunami Focused Study (Chowdhury and oAuthorsFlorence L. Wong, Angie J. Venturato, Eric L. GeistTriggering of tsunamigenic aftershocks from large strike‐slip earthquakes: Analysis of the November 2000 New Ireland earthquake sequence
[1] The November 2000 New Ireland earthquake sequence started with a Mw = 8.0 left‐lateral main shock on 16 November and was followed by a series of aftershocks with primarily thrust mechanisms. The earthquake sequence was associated with a locally damaging tsunami on the islands of New Ireland and nearby New Britain, Bougainville, and Buka. Results from numerical tsunami‐propagation models of the
AuthorsEric L. Geist, Tom ParsonsLocal tsunami hazards in the Pacific Northwest from Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes
No abstract available.
AuthorsEric L. GeistRapid tsunami models and earthquake source parameters: Far-field and local applications
Rapid tsunami models have recently been developed to forecast far-field tsunami amplitudes from initial earthquake information (magnitude and hypocenter). Earthquake source parameters that directly affect tsunami generation as used in rapid tsunami models are examined, with particular attention to local versus far-field application of those models. First, validity of the assumption that the focalAuthorsE.L. GeistComments on potential geologic and seismic hazards affecting coastal Ventura County, California
This report examines the regional seismic and geologic hazards that could affect proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in coastal Ventura County, California. Faults throughout this area are thought to be capable of producing earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 to 7.5, which could produce surface fault offsets of as much as 15 feet. Many of these faults are sufficiently well understood to be incAuthorsStephanie L. Ross, David M. Boore, Michael A. Fisher, Arthur D. Frankel, Eric L. Geist, Kenneth W. Hudnut, Robert E. Kayen, Homa J. Lee, William R. Normark, Florence L. WongThe tsunami source area of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake estimated from tsunami travel times and its relationship to the 1952 Tokachi-oki earthquake
We estimate the tsunami source area of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake (Mw 8.0) from observed tsunami travel times at 17 Japanese tide gauge stations. The estimated tsunami source area (∼ 1.4 × 104 km2) coincides with the western-half of the ocean-bottom deformation area (∼2.52 × 104 km2) of the 1952 Tokachi-oki earthquake (Mw 8.1), previously inferred from tsunami waveform inversion. This suggestAuthorsK. Hirata, Y. Tanioka, K. Satake, S. Yamaki, E.L. GeistEffect of structural heterogeneity and slip distribution on coseismic vertical displacement from rupture on the Seattle Fault
Workshops in 2001 and 2002 were convened to determine critical issues in the development of tsunami inundation maps for the Puget Sound region. The Tsunami Inundation Mapping Effort (TIME) is conducted under the multi-agency National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP). The Puget Sound Tsunami/Landslide Workshop in 2001 focused on integrated tsunami research involving a wide range of researcAuthorsEric L. Geist, Shoichi YoshiokaPreliminary hydrodynamic analysis of landslide-generated waves in Tidal Inlet, Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska
A landslide block perched on the northern wall of Tidal Inlet, Glacier Bay National Park (Figure 1), has the potential to generate large waves in Tidal Inlet and the western arm of Glacier Bay if it were to fail catastrophically. Landslide-generated waves are a particular concern for cruise ships transiting through Glacier Bay on a daily basis during the summer months. The objective of this studyAuthorsEric L. Geist, Matthias Jakob, Gerald F. Wieczoreck, Peter Dartnell - News