Eric Geist
Eric Geist is a research geophysicist with the USGS in Moffett Field, California, where he has worked for over three decades. Throughout his career, he has focused on computer modeling of geophysical phenomena, including large-scale deformation of the earth in response to tectonic forces and the physics of tsunami generation.
For over a decade now, Eric's research has focused on improving our ability to forecast tsunamis and their sources. Eric has authored over 120 journal articles and abstracts, including an article in Scientific American on the devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and several review papers on tsunamis.
Research Statement
Natural hazards are the product of complex physical systems. Eric’s research currently focuses on the new field of earthquake combinatorics. This research examines combinations and arrangements of earthquakes on faults to explain a variety of geophysical and geological datasets. Tackling the size of combinatorial problems for fault-scale systems has only recently been made possible through advances in applied mathematics and computer science over the last decade. With newly developed computer algorithms, earthquake combinatorics provides an avenue to investigate earthquake hazards for both offshore and onshore faults.
Eric also investigates the interplay between nonlinear dynamics and a probabilistic description of geophysical processes, particularly as applied to natural hazards and their sources. Recent developments in statistical physics provide many avenues for understanding natural hazards, including how source sizes and outcomes are distributed and how individual natural hazard events occur through time. In addition, stochastic models provide a way to quantify uncertainty associated with source processes as applied to hazard assessments. A natural product of this research is development of new probabilistic methods to forecast natural hazards.
Eric has also examined nonlinear processes associated with long-term and large-scale deformation of the Earth’s lithosphere. Specific projects have included understanding the seismotectonics of island arcs and determining the state of stress and slip rates along major plate-boundary fault systems.
Research Management
2012 – 2017: Co-Leader of Marine Geohazards Project, USGS
2005 – 2012: Co-Leader of Caribbean Tsunami Hazards Project, USGS
2004 – 2007: Co-Leader of FEMA Probabilistic Tsunami Pilot Study: Seaside, Oregon
1998 – 2004: Leader of Modeling and Probabilistic Analysis of Coastal Change Hazards Project, USGS
1989 – 1994: Leader of Geodynamic Modeling of Island Arcs Project, USGS
Professional Experience
1992 – Present: Research Geophysicist, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
1986 – 1991: Operational Geophysicist, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
1985 – 1986: Physical Science Technician, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
Education and Certifications
1985 - M.Sc. in Geophysics, Stanford University
1983 – B.Sc. in Geophysical Engineering, Colorado School of Mines
Honors and Awards
2002, 2011, 2018: American Geophysical Union, Editor’s Citation for Excellence in Refereeing
2005: USGS Western Region, Communicator of the Year Award (co-honoree)
1994: Department of the Interior Superior Service Award
1994: Fellow, Geological Society of America
Science and Products
Tsunami: wave of change
Size distribution of submarine landslides and its implication to tsunami hazard in Puerto Rico
We have established for the first time a size frequency distribution for carbonate submarine slope failures. Using detailed bathymetry along the northern edge of the carbonate platform north of Puerto Rico, we show that the cumulative distribution of slope failure volumes follows a power-law distribution. The power-law exponent of this distribution is similar to those for rock falls on land, comme
Differences in tsunami generation between the December 26, 2004 and March 28, 2005 Sumatra earthquakes
Probabilistic analysis of tsunami hazards
Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Pilot Study— Modernization of FEMA flood hazard maps: GIS data
Triggering of tsunamigenic aftershocks from large strike‐slip earthquakes: Analysis of the November 2000 New Ireland earthquake sequence
[1] The November 2000 New Ireland earthquake sequence started with a Mw = 8.0 left‐lateral main shock on 16 November and was followed by a series of aftershocks with primarily thrust mechanisms. The earthquake sequence was associated with a locally damaging tsunami on the islands of New Ireland and nearby New Britain, Bougainville, and Buka. Results from numerical tsunami‐propagation models of the
Local tsunami hazards in the Pacific Northwest from Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes
No abstract available.
Rapid tsunami models and earthquake source parameters: Far-field and local applications
Comments on potential geologic and seismic hazards affecting coastal Ventura County, California
The tsunami source area of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake estimated from tsunami travel times and its relationship to the 1952 Tokachi-oki earthquake
Effect of structural heterogeneity and slip distribution on coseismic vertical displacement from rupture on the Seattle Fault
Preliminary hydrodynamic analysis of landslide-generated waves in Tidal Inlet, Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska
Science and Products
Tsunami: wave of change
Size distribution of submarine landslides and its implication to tsunami hazard in Puerto Rico
We have established for the first time a size frequency distribution for carbonate submarine slope failures. Using detailed bathymetry along the northern edge of the carbonate platform north of Puerto Rico, we show that the cumulative distribution of slope failure volumes follows a power-law distribution. The power-law exponent of this distribution is similar to those for rock falls on land, comme
Differences in tsunami generation between the December 26, 2004 and March 28, 2005 Sumatra earthquakes
Probabilistic analysis of tsunami hazards
Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Pilot Study— Modernization of FEMA flood hazard maps: GIS data
Triggering of tsunamigenic aftershocks from large strike‐slip earthquakes: Analysis of the November 2000 New Ireland earthquake sequence
[1] The November 2000 New Ireland earthquake sequence started with a Mw = 8.0 left‐lateral main shock on 16 November and was followed by a series of aftershocks with primarily thrust mechanisms. The earthquake sequence was associated with a locally damaging tsunami on the islands of New Ireland and nearby New Britain, Bougainville, and Buka. Results from numerical tsunami‐propagation models of the
Local tsunami hazards in the Pacific Northwest from Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes
No abstract available.