Eric Geist
Eric Geist is a research geophysicist with the USGS in Moffett Field, California, where he has worked for over three decades. Throughout his career, he has focused on computer modeling of geophysical phenomena, including large-scale deformation of the earth in response to tectonic forces and the physics of tsunami generation.
For over a decade now, Eric's research has focused on improving our ability to forecast tsunamis and their sources. Eric has authored over 120 journal articles and abstracts, including an article in Scientific American on the devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and several review papers on tsunamis.
Research Statement
Natural hazards are the product of complex physical systems. Eric’s research currently focuses on the new field of earthquake combinatorics. This research examines combinations and arrangements of earthquakes on faults to explain a variety of geophysical and geological datasets. Tackling the size of combinatorial problems for fault-scale systems has only recently been made possible through advances in applied mathematics and computer science over the last decade. With newly developed computer algorithms, earthquake combinatorics provides an avenue to investigate earthquake hazards for both offshore and onshore faults.
Eric also investigates the interplay between nonlinear dynamics and a probabilistic description of geophysical processes, particularly as applied to natural hazards and their sources. Recent developments in statistical physics provide many avenues for understanding natural hazards, including how source sizes and outcomes are distributed and how individual natural hazard events occur through time. In addition, stochastic models provide a way to quantify uncertainty associated with source processes as applied to hazard assessments. A natural product of this research is development of new probabilistic methods to forecast natural hazards.
Eric has also examined nonlinear processes associated with long-term and large-scale deformation of the Earth’s lithosphere. Specific projects have included understanding the seismotectonics of island arcs and determining the state of stress and slip rates along major plate-boundary fault systems.
Research Management
2012 – 2017: Co-Leader of Marine Geohazards Project, USGS
2005 – 2012: Co-Leader of Caribbean Tsunami Hazards Project, USGS
2004 – 2007: Co-Leader of FEMA Probabilistic Tsunami Pilot Study: Seaside, Oregon
1998 – 2004: Leader of Modeling and Probabilistic Analysis of Coastal Change Hazards Project, USGS
1989 – 1994: Leader of Geodynamic Modeling of Island Arcs Project, USGS
Professional Experience
1992 – Present: Research Geophysicist, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
1986 – 1991: Operational Geophysicist, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
1985 – 1986: Physical Science Technician, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
Education and Certifications
1985 - M.Sc. in Geophysics, Stanford University
1983 – B.Sc. in Geophysical Engineering, Colorado School of Mines
Honors and Awards
2002, 2011, 2018: American Geophysical Union, Editor’s Citation for Excellence in Refereeing
2005: USGS Western Region, Communicator of the Year Award (co-honoree)
1994: Department of the Interior Superior Service Award
1994: Fellow, Geological Society of America
Science and Products
Chapter 3 - Phenomenology of tsunamis: Statistical properties from generation to runup
Submarine landslide as the source for the October 11, 1918 Mona Passage tsunami: Observations and modeling
Comments on potential geologic and seismic hazards affecting proposed liquefied natural gas site in Santa Monica Bay, California
Preliminary results of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission collaborative research program to assess tsunami hazard for nuclear power plants on the Atlantic and gulf coasts
Tsunami probability in the Caribbean Region
We calculated tsunami runup probability (in excess of 0.5 m) at coastal sites throughout the Caribbean region. We applied a Poissonian probability model because of the variety of uncorrelated tsunami sources in the region. Coastlines were discretized into 20 km by 20 km cells, and the mean tsunami runup rate was determined for each cell. The remarkable ???500-year empirical record compiled by O'Lo
Distribution of tsunami interevent times
GIS data for the Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Pilot Study to modernize FEMA flood hazard maps
Implications of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on tsunami forecast and assessment models for great subduction-zone earthquakes
Preliminary analysis of the earthquake (MW 8.1) and tsunami of April 1, 2007, in the Solomon Islands, southwestern Pacific Ocean
Hazard assessment of the Tidal Inlet landslide and potential subsequent tsunami, Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska
Submarine slides north of Puerto Rico and their tsunami potential
New multibeam bathymetry of the entire Puerto Rico trench reveals numerous retrograde slope failures at various scales at the edge of the carbonate platform north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The slumped material comprises carbonate blocks, which fail, at least in initial stages, as a coherent rock mass. This, combined with the fact that the edge of the carbonate platform is steeper than
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Chapter 3 - Phenomenology of tsunamis: Statistical properties from generation to runup
Observations related to tsunami generation, propagation, and runup are reviewed and described in a phenomenological framework. In the three coastal regimes considered (near-field broadside, near-field oblique, and far field), the observed maximum wave amplitude is associated with different parts of the tsunami wavefield. The maximum amplitude in the near-field broadside regime is most often associAuthorsEric L. GeistSubmarine landslide as the source for the October 11, 1918 Mona Passage tsunami: Observations and modeling
The October 11, 1918 ML 7.5 earthquake in the Mona Passage between Hispaniola and Puerto Rico generated a local tsunami that claimed approximately 100 lives along the western coast of Puerto Rico. The area affected by this tsunami is now significantly more populated. Newly acquired high-resolution bathymetry and seismic reflection lines in the Mona Passage show a fresh submarine landslide 15AuthorsA.M. López-Venegas, Uri S. ten Brink, Eric L. GeistComments on potential geologic and seismic hazards affecting proposed liquefied natural gas site in Santa Monica Bay, California
In a letter to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) dated March 25, 2008, Representative Jane Harman (California 36th district) requested advice on geologic hazards that should be considered in the review of a proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility off the California coast in Santa Monica Bay. In 2004, the USGS responded to a similar request from Representative Lois Capps, regarding two proposAuthorsStephanie L. Ross, Homa J. Lee, Tom E. Parsons, Larry A. Beyer, David M. Boore, James E. Conrad, Brian D. Edwards, Michael A. Fisher, Arthur D. Frankel, Eric L. Geist, Kenneth W. Hudnut, Susan E. Hough, Robert E. Kayen, T.D. Lorenson, Nicolas Luco, Patricia A. McCrory, Mary McGann, Manuel Nathenson, Michael Nolan, Mark D. Petersen, Daniel J. Ponti, Charles L. Powell, Holly F. Ryan, John C. Tinsley, Chris J. Wills, Florence L. Wong, Jingping XuPreliminary results of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission collaborative research program to assess tsunami hazard for nuclear power plants on the Atlantic and gulf coasts
In response to the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US NRC) initiated a long-term research program to improve understanding of tsunami hazard levels for nuclear facilities in the United States. For this effort, the US NRC organized a collaborative research program with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and other key researchers for the purpose ofAuthorsA.M. Kammerer, Uri S. ten Brink, David C. Twitchell, Eric L. Geist, Jason D. Chaytor, J. Locat, H. J. Lee, Brian J. Buczkowski, M. SansoucyTsunami probability in the Caribbean Region
We calculated tsunami runup probability (in excess of 0.5 m) at coastal sites throughout the Caribbean region. We applied a Poissonian probability model because of the variety of uncorrelated tsunami sources in the region. Coastlines were discretized into 20 km by 20 km cells, and the mean tsunami runup rate was determined for each cell. The remarkable ???500-year empirical record compiled by O'Lo
AuthorsT. Parsons, E.L. GeistDistribution of tsunami interevent times
The distribution of tsunami interevent times is analyzed using global and site-specific (Hilo, Hawaii) tsunami catalogs. An empirical probability density distribution is determined by binning the observed interevent times during a period in which the observation rate is approximately constant. The empirical distributions for both catalogs exhibit non-Poissonian behavior in which there is an abundaAuthorsE.L. Geist, T. ParsonsGIS data for the Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Pilot Study to modernize FEMA flood hazard maps
A Tsunami Pilot Study was conducted for the area surrounding the coastal town of Seaside, Oregon, as part of the Federal Emergency Management's (FEMA) Flood Insurance Rate Map Modernization Program (Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, 2006). The Cascadia subduction zone extends from Cape Mendocino, California, to Vancouver Island, Canada. The Seaside area was chosen because it is typical of many coAuthorsFlorence L. Wong, Angie J. Venturato, Eric L. GeistImplications of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on tsunami forecast and assessment models for great subduction-zone earthquakes
Results from different tsunami forecasting and hazard assessment models are compared with observed tsunami wave heights from the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Forecast models are based on initial earthquake information and are used to estimate tsunami wave heights during propagation. An empirical forecast relationship based only on seismic moment provides a close estimate to the observedAuthorsEric L. Geist, Vasily V. Titov, Diego Arcas, Fred F. Pollitz, Susan L. BilekPreliminary analysis of the earthquake (MW 8.1) and tsunami of April 1, 2007, in the Solomon Islands, southwestern Pacific Ocean
On April 1, 2007, a destructive earthquake (Mw 8.1) and tsunami struck the central Solomon Islands arc in the southwestern Pacific Ocean. The earthquake had a thrust-fault focal mechanism and occurred at shallow depth (between 15 km and 25 km) beneath the island arc. The combined effects of the earthquake and tsunami caused dozens of fatalities and thousands remain without shelter. We present a prAuthorsMichael A. Fisher, Eric L. Geist, Ray Sliter, Florence L. Wong, Carol Reiss, Dennis M. MannHazard assessment of the Tidal Inlet landslide and potential subsequent tsunami, Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska
An unstable rock slump, estimated at 5 to 10 × 106 m3, lies perched above the northern shore of Tidal Inlet in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska. This landslide mass has the potential to rapidly move into Tidal Inlet and generate large, long-period-impulse tsunami waves. Field and photographic examination revealed that the landslide moved between 1892 and 1919 after the retreat of the Little Ice AAuthorsG. F. Wieczorek, E.L. Geist, R.J. Motyka, M. JakobSubmarine slides north of Puerto Rico and their tsunami potential
New multibeam bathymetry of the entire Puerto Rico trench reveals numerous retrograde slope failures at various scales at the edge of the carbonate platform north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The slumped material comprises carbonate blocks, which fail, at least in initial stages, as a coherent rock mass. This, combined with the fact that the edge of the carbonate platform is steeper than
AuthorsUri S. ten Brink, Eric L. Geist, Patrick J. Lynett, Brian D. Andrews - News