Harry Dowsett, Ph.D.
Harry is a Research Geologist specializing in micropaleontology as well as Project Chief of Geological Investigations of the Neogene and PRISM Projects. His research provides crucial information on how the Earth responds to changing conditions for citizens and policy-makers. Harry is an expert in paleontology, environmental reconstruction, stratigraphic correlation and climate change.
Harry is a Research Geologist specializing in micropaleontology as well as Project Chief of Geological Investigations of the Neogene and PRISM Projects. His research provides crucial information on how the Earth responds to changing conditions for citizens and policy-makers. Harry is an expert in paleontology, environmental reconstruction, stratigraphic correlation and climate change.
Dr. Dowsett's current research, Geological Investigations of the Neogene, is at the nexus of global scale geological data analysis and paleoclimate modeling, with special emphasis on environmental and ecological changes accompanying climate change along the eastern United States.
He is Co-Lead of the international Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). PlioMIP is an international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, and their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP operates under the umbrella of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), which examines multiple intervals in Earth history, the consistency of model predictions in simulating these intervals, and their ability to reproduce geological climate archives. PlioMIP currently involves 20 research institutions.
Dr. Dowsett leads the international PRISM effort which focuses on the most recent period in geologic history bearing a resemblance to environmental projections for the 21st century. Through better understanding of past, present and future change, PRISM provides products designed to assist in:
- Predicting the strength and frequency of El Nino events and the related risks of droughts and floods
- Defining the bathymetric causes of Arctic sea ice variability for national security studies
- Understanding the nature of upwelling and the effects on coastal and fishing industries
- Reconstructing vegetation patterns to inform farming practices and legislation
- Predicting potential sea level rise and the risk to population centers
- Tracking storms and predicting the hydrological impact of modified atmospheric and oceanic energy transport systems
- Identifying climate model biases and testing the accuracy of future climate models.
Science and Products
On the causes of mid-Pliocene warmth and polar amplification
Climate model simulations of the mid-Pliocene: Earth's last great interval of global warmth
Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): experimental design and boundary conditions (Experiment 2)
Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions for the Pliocene (Plio-QUMP): Initial results
Sensitivity of Pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing
Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?
Bathymetric controls on Pliocene North Atlantic and Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production
Sea surface temperatures of the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period: A comparison of PRISM3 and HadCM3
Climate change lessons from a warm world
ePRISM: A case study in multiple proxy and mixed temporal resolution integration
Pliocene climate
Mid-Piacensian mean annual sea surface temperature: an analysis for data-model comparisons
Science and Products
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On the causes of mid-Pliocene warmth and polar amplification
The mid-Pliocene (~ 3 to 3.3 Ma ago), is a period of sustained global warmth in comparison to the late Quaternary (0 to ~ 1 Ma ago), and has potential to inform predictions of long-term future climate change. However, given that several processes potentially contributed, relatively little is understood about the reasons for the observed warmth, or the associated polar amplification. Here, using aAuthorsDaniel J. Lunt, Alan M. Haywood, Gavin A. Schmidt, Ulrich Salzmann, Paul J. Valdes, Harry J. Dowsett, Claire A. LoptsonClimate model simulations of the mid-Pliocene: Earth's last great interval of global warmth
Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Workshop; Reston, Virginia, 2–4 August 2011 The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), supported by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) project and Powell Center, is an integral part of a third iteration of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). PlioMIP's aim is toAuthorsA.M. Dolan, A.M. Haywood, H.J. DowsettPliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): experimental design and boundary conditions (Experiment 2)
The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere-onAuthorsA.M. Haywood, Harry J. Dowsett, Marci M. Robinson, Danielle K. Stoll, A.M. Dolan, D.J. Lunt, B. Otto-Bliesner, M.A. ChandlerQuantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions for the Pliocene (Plio-QUMP): Initial results
Examination of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ~ 3.3 to 3.0 Ma BP) provides an excellent opportunity to test the ability of climate models to reproduce warm climate states, thereby assessing our confidence in model predictions. To do this it is necessary to relate the uncertainty in model simulations of mPWP climate to uncertainties in projections of future climate change. The uncertainties inAuthorsJ.O. Pope, M. Collins, A.M. Haywood, Harry J. Dowsett, S.J. Hunter, D.J. Lunt, S.J. Pickering, M.J. PoundSensitivity of Pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing
The stability of the Earth's major ice sheets is a critical uncertainty in predictions of future climate and sea level change. One method of investigating the behaviour of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets in a warmer-than-modern climate is to look back at past warm periods of Earth history, for example the Pliocene. This paper presents climate and ice sheet modelling results for the mid-AuthorsA.M. Dolan, A.M. Haywood, D.J. Hill, H.J. Dowsett, S.J. Hunter, D.J. Lunt, S.J. PickeringAre there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?
Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race’s current grand climate experiment. This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claimiAuthorsA.M. Haywood, A. Ridgwell, D.J. Lunt, D.J. Hill, M.J. Pound, H.J. Dowsett, A.M. Dolan, J.E. Francis, M. WilliamsBathymetric controls on Pliocene North Atlantic and Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production
The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~ 3.3 to 3.0 Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history in which global temperatures reached and remained at levels similar to those projected for the near future. The distribution of global warmth, however, was different than today in that the high latitudes warmed more than the tropics. Multiple temperature proxies indicate significant sea surface warmAuthorsMarci M. Robinson, P.J. Valdes, A.M. Haywood, H.J. Dowsett, D.J. Hill, S.M. JonesSea surface temperatures of the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period: A comparison of PRISM3 and HadCM3
It is essential to document how well the current generation of climate models performs in simulating past climates to have confidence in their ability to project future conditions. We present the first global, in-depth comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from a coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model experiment and a SST reconstruction based on proxy data. This enables thAuthorsHarry J. Dowsett, A.M. Haywood, P.J. Valdes, Marci M. Robinson, D.J. Lunt, D.J. Hill, D.K. Stoll, Kevin M. FoleyClimate change lessons from a warm world
In the early 1970’s to early 1980’s Soviet climatologists were making comparisons to past intervals of warmth in the geologic record and suggesting that these intervals could be possible analogs for 21st century “greenhouse” conditions. Some saw regional warming as a benefit to the Soviet Union and made comments along the lines of “Set fire to the coal mines!” These sentiments were alarming to somAuthorsHarry J. DowsettePRISM: A case study in multiple proxy and mixed temporal resolution integration
As part of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) Project, we present the ePRISM experiment designed I) to provide climate modelers with a reconstruction of an early Pliocene warm period that was warmer than the PRISM interval (similar to 3.3 to 3.0 Ma), yet still similar in many ways to modern conditions and 2) to provide an example of how best to integrate multiple-prAuthorsMarci M. Robinson, Harry J. DowsettPliocene climate
The Pliocene Epoch, 5.3 Ma to 1.8 Ma, was a time when paleoclimate conditions ranged from very warm, equable climates (on a global scale), rhythmically varying every 40,000 years, to high-amplitude glacial-interglacial cycles that led to the “Ice Ages” of the Pleistocene. Evidence for paleoclimate conditions comes from fossils, geochemical data, and the integration of these data with sophisticatedAuthorsHarry J. Dowsett, R. P. Caballero-GillMid-Piacensian mean annual sea surface temperature: an analysis for data-model comparisons
Numerical models of the global climate system are the primary tools used to understand and project climate disruptions in the form of future global warming. The Pliocene has been identified as the closest, albeit imperfect, analog to climate conditions expected for the end of this century, making an independent data set of Pliocene conditions necessary for ground truthing model results. Because moAuthorsHarry J. Dowsett, Marci M. Robinson, Kevin M. Foley, Danielle K. Stoll