USGS Image Drylands of Southern Utah - April 28, 2014
John B Bradford, Ph.D.
John Bradford is a Research Ecologist with the USGS Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center. John studies dryland ecosystems in the context of global change and works with resource managers to identify adaptive strategies for sustaining these ecosystems in a changing world.
John focuses on understanding how changing climate, disturbances, and land use influence dryland vegetation, plant communities, and ecosystem services. He is currently engaged in the broad topics of ecohydrology and dryland sustainability in the western U.S. and has projects examining a) the potential influence of changing climatic conditions on the distribution and regeneration potential of trees and shrubs in the intermountain western U.S., b) strategies for understanding and enhancing dryland ecosystem resilience to changing climate and drought patterns, and c) ecosystem water balance and patterns of plant-available soil water in dryland regions.
Professional Experience
2011- Present: Research Ecologist - US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ
2006 - 2011: Research Ecologist - USDA Forest Service, North Central Research Station, Grand Rapids, MN
2004 - 2006: Research Ecologist (Postdoctoral) - USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO
Education and Certifications
2004 - Ph.D., Ecology, Colorado State University
1996 - B.A., Biology, Cornell University
Science and Products
Trajectories and tipping points of piñon–juniper woodlands after fire and thinning
Matching existing and future native plant materials to disturbance-driven restoration needs
Combining resilience and resistance with threat-based approaches for prioritizing management actions in sagebrush ecosystems
Time, climate, and soil settings set the course for reclamation outcomes following dryland energy development
A recruitment niche framework for improving seed-based restoration
Supporting the development and use of native plant materials for restoration on the Colorado Plateau (Fiscal Year 2022 Report)
Community for data integration 2019 project report
Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology Project—Science strategy
Plant community predictions support the potential for big sagebrush range expansion adjacent to the leading edge
Divergent climate impacts on C3 versus C4 grasses imply widespread 21st century shifts in grassland functional composition
Ecologically relevant moisture and temperature metrics for assessing dryland ecosystem dynamics
Geologic, geomorphic, and edaphic underpinnings of dryland ecosystems: Colorado Plateau landscapes in a changing world
Influence of future climate scenarios on habitat and population dynamics of greater sage-grouse
Southwest Energy Exploration, Development, and Reclamation (SWEDR)
Climate-Smart Vegetation Treatments - Using 15 Years of SageSTEP Data to Inform Management of Resilient Ecosystems
Informing seed transfer guidelines and native plant materials development: Research supporting restoration across the Colorado Plateau and beyond
Developing High-Resolution Soil Moisture Projections for the Contiguous U.S.
Climate Adaptation Strategies for Arid Grasslands
Developing a Decision Support Framework for Prioritizing Pinyon Juniper Forest Treatments on the Colorado Plateau
Modernizing sensor data workflows to leverage Internet of Things (IoT) and cloud-based technologies
Contributions to the development of the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Sagebrush Conservation Strategy
Ecological Forecasting Workshop
Determining Successful Management and Restoration Strategies for Pinyon-Juniper Communities in the Face of Changing Climate and Wildfire
Can Management Actions Support Forest Regeneration Across the Diverse Landscapes and Climate Change Futures of the Southwestern U.S.?
Site characterization and regeneration attributes of managed and unmanaged ponderosa pine sites in the southwestern United States
Observed wildfire frequency, modelled wildfire probability, climate, and fine fuels across the big sagebrush region in the western United States
Bioclimatic suitability for 11 dominant Colorado Plateau perennial grass species (ver. 2.0, November 2022)
Biome-wide sagebrush core habitat and growth areas estimated from a threat-based conservation design
Pinyon-juniper basal area, climate and demographics data from National Forest Inventory plots and projected under future density and climate conditions
Historical and future ecological drought conditions for rangelands of the western U.S.
High-resolution maps of historical and 21st century soil temperature and moisture data using multivariate matching algorithms for drylands of western U.S. and Canada
High-resolution maps of projected big sagebrush plant community biomass for 52 future climate scenarios using multivariate matching algorithms
High-resolution maps of historical and 21st century ecological drought metrics using multivariate matching algorithms for drylands of western U.S. and Canada
Climate and drought adaptation: historical and projected future exposure metrics for Southeastern Utah Group National Parks
Estimated tree mortality, basal area, climate, and drought conditions for ponderosa pine in forest inventory plots across the western U.S.
High-resolution maps of big sagebrush plant community biomass using multivariate matching algorithms
USGS Image Drylands of Southern Utah - April 28, 2014
Colorado River Basin Projects
The Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology Team has created an interactive map of USGS projects to highlight the integrated science currently conducted within the Colorado River Basin. These projects are not all inclusive of the work conducted by the USGS within the CRB, but highlight the broad range of integrated science currently conducted.
Science and Products
- Publications
Filter Total Items: 144
Trajectories and tipping points of piñon–juniper woodlands after fire and thinning
Piñon–juniper (PJ) woodlands are a dominant community type across the Intermountain West, comprising over a million acres and experiencing critical effects from increasing wildfire. Large PJ mortality and regeneration failure after catastrophic wildfire have elevated concerns about the long-term viability of PJ woodlands. Thinning is increasingly used to safeguard forests from fire and in an attemAuthorsMichala Lee Phillips, Cara Marie Lauria, Tova Spector, John B. Bradford, Catherine A. Gehring, Brooke B. Osborne, Armin J. Howell, Edmund E. Grote, Renee Rondeau, Gillian Trimber, Benjamin Robinson, Sasha C. ReedMatching existing and future native plant materials to disturbance-driven restoration needs
Assessing the appropriateness of existing native plant materials can both determine which seed source to utilize for restoration projects, and identify locations for which new seed sources need to be developed. Here, we demonstrate an approach to meet these needs. This method identifies areas of high restoration need based on disturbance patterns, assesses the regional suitability of existing natiAuthorsDaniel E. Winkler, Sarah Sterner, John B. Bradford, Adrienne M. Pilmanis, Robert MassattiCombining resilience and resistance with threat-based approaches for prioritizing management actions in sagebrush ecosystems
The sagebrush biome is a dryland region in the western United States experiencing rapid transformations to novel ecological states. Threat-based approaches for managing anthropogenic and ecosystem threats have recently become prominent, but successfully mitigating threats depends on the ecological resilience of ecosystems. We used a spatially explicit approach for prioritizing management actions tAuthorsJeanne C. Chambers, Jessi L. Brown, John B. Bradford, Kevin Doherty, Michele R. Crist, Daniel Rodolphe Schlaepfer, Alexandra K. Urza, Karen ShortTime, climate, and soil settings set the course for reclamation outcomes following dryland energy development
Soil attributes, climate, and time since reclamation have important implications for oil and gas reclamation success on drylands. It is uncertain if reclaimed well pads, on highly degraded drylands, can successfully regain ecological function or meet indicator benchmarks for reclamation. Here, our goals were to assess patterns in reclamation outcomes relative to (1) soil attributes, climate, and tAuthorsRandi C. Lupardus, Aarin Sengsirirak, Keven Griffen, Anna C Knight, Brandon E McNellis, John B. Bradford, Seth M. Munson, Sasha C. Reed, Miguel L. Villarreal, Michael C. DuniwayA recruitment niche framework for improving seed-based restoration
As larger tracts of land experience degradation, seed-based restoration (SBR) will be a primary tool to reestablish vegetation and ecosystem function. SBR has advanced in terms of technical and technological approaches, yet plant recruitment remains a major barrier in some systems, notably drylands. There is an unmet opportunity to test science-based approaches to seed mix design and application,AuthorsJulie E. Larson, A. C. Agneray, Chad S. Boyd, John B. Bradford, O. A. Kildisheva, Katharine N. Suding, Stella M. CopelandSupporting the development and use of native plant materials for restoration on the Colorado Plateau (Fiscal Year 2022 Report)
A primary focus of the Colorado Plateau Native Plant Program (CPNPP) is to identify and develop appropriate native plant materials (NPMs) for current and future restoration projects. Multiple efforts have characterized the myriad challenges inherent in providing appropriate seed resources to enable effective, widespread restoration and have identified a broad suite of research activities to providAuthorsRobert Massatti, Daniel E. Winkler, Sasha C. Reed, Michael C. Duniway, Seth M. Munson, John B. BradfordCommunity for data integration 2019 project report
The U.S. Geological Survey Community for Data Integration annually supports small projects focusing on data integration for interdisciplinary research, innovative data management, and demonstration of new technologies. This report provides a summary of the 14 projects supported in fiscal year 2019 and outlines their goals, activities, and accomplishments. Proposals in 2019 were encouraged to addreAuthorsAmanda N. Liford, Caitlin M. Andrews, Aparna Bamzai, Joseph A. Bard, David S. Blehert, John B. Bradford, Wesley M. Daniel, Sara L. Caldwell Eldridge, Frank Engel, Jason A. Ferrante, Amy K. Gilmer, Margaret E. Hunter, Jeanne M. Jones, Benjamin Letcher, Frances L. Lightsom, Richard R. McDonald, Leah E. Morgan, Sasha C. Reed, Leslie HsuByEcosystems Mission Area, Water Resources Mission Area, Science Synthesis, Analysis and Research Program, Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS) Program, Volcano Hazards Program, Community for Data Integration (CDI), Geology, Geophysics, and Geochemistry Science Center, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, National Wildlife Health Center, Oklahoma-Texas Water Science Center, Southwest Biological Science Center, Volcano Science Center, Western Geographic Science Center, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center, Science Data ManagementColorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology Project—Science strategy
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts a wide variety of science that improves understanding of droughts and their effects on ecosystems and society. This work includes data collection and monitoring of aquatic and terrestrial systems; assessment and analysis of patterns, trends, drivers, and impacts of drought; development and application of predictive models; and delivery of information andAuthorsKatharine G. Dahm, Todd Hawbaker, Rebecca J. Frus, Adrian P. Monroe, John B. Bradford, William J. Andrews, Alicia Torregrosa, Eric D. Anderson, David Dean, Sharon L. QiPlant community predictions support the potential for big sagebrush range expansion adjacent to the leading edge
Big sagebrush ecosystems are widespread across drylands of western North America and provide numerous services, but the abundance of these ecosystems has declined substantially and the future of these ecosystems is uncertain. As a result, characterizing potential areas for expansion of these ecosystems is important. Species distribution models of the big sagebrush suggest areas of increasing climaAuthorsT. Martyn, K. Palmquist, John B. Bradford, Daniel Rodolphe Schlaepfer, W.K. LauenrothDivergent climate impacts on C3 versus C4 grasses imply widespread 21st century shifts in grassland functional composition
AimGrasslands cover a third of Earth's landmass and provide critical ecosystem services. Anticipating how perennial C3 (cool-season) and C4 (warm-season) grasses respond to climate change will be key to predicting future composition and functioning of grasslands. Here, we evaluate environmental drivers of C3 and C4 perennial distributions and assess how C3 and C4 grass distributions shift in respoAuthorsCaroline A. Havrilla, John B. Bradford, Charles Yackulic, Seth M. MunsonEcologically relevant moisture and temperature metrics for assessing dryland ecosystem dynamics
In drylands, water-limited regions that cover ~40% of the global land surface, ecosystems are primarily controlled by access to soil moisture and exposure to simultaneously hot and dry conditions. Quantifying ecologically relevant environmental metrics is difficult in drylands because the response of vegetation to moisture and temperature conditions is not easily explained solely by climate-basedAuthorsD. A. Chenoweth, Daniel Rodolphe Schlaepfer, J. C. Chambers, J. L. Brown, A. K. Urza, Brice Hanberry, D. Board, M. Crist, John B. BradfordGeologic, geomorphic, and edaphic underpinnings of dryland ecosystems: Colorado Plateau landscapes in a changing world
Drylands represent more than 41% of the global land surface and are at degradation risk due to land use and climate change. Developing strategies to mitigate degradation and restore drylands in the face of these threats requires an understanding of how drylands are shaped by not only soils and climate, but also geology and geomorphology. However, few studies have completed such a comprehensive anaAuthorsMichael C. Duniway, Christopher Benson, Travis W. Nauman, Anna C Knight, John B. Bradford, Seth M. Munson, Dana L. Witwicki, Carolyn Livensperger, Matthew W. Van Scoyoc, Terry T Fisk, David Thoma, Mark E. Miller - Science
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Influence of future climate scenarios on habitat and population dynamics of greater sage-grouse
Sagebrush ecosystems and sagebrush-dependent wildlife species are likely to experience more frequent extreme drought and temperature conditions with changing climate. Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), an indicator species in sagebrush ecosystems, may experience habitat and population losses that are increasingly exacerbated by current and future climate change. However, the direct...Southwest Energy Exploration, Development, and Reclamation (SWEDR)
Approximately 35% of the US and approximately 82% of DOI lands are “drylands” found throughout the western US. These lands contain oil, gas, oil shale, shale oil, and tar sand deposits and the exploration for and extraction of these resources has resulted in hundreds of thousands of operating and abandoned wells across the West. These arid and semi-arid lands have unique soil and plant communities...Climate-Smart Vegetation Treatments - Using 15 Years of SageSTEP Data to Inform Management of Resilient Ecosystems
Land managers require clear, forward-looking information about where and how vegetation treatments may make the greatest difference for drought resilience in sagebrush and woodland ecosystems. We are using soil moisture and vegetation data from SageSTEP-- a long-term ecological study on fuel treatments in the Great Basin-- to analyze soil moisture dynamics and vegetation responses after common...Informing seed transfer guidelines and native plant materials development: Research supporting restoration across the Colorado Plateau and beyond
As restoration needs for natural landscapes grow due to higher frequency and/or intensity disturbances, pressure from invasive species, and impacts resulting from changing climates, considerable time and resources are being invested to guide the development and deployment of native plant materials (NPMs). Across lower elevations of the Colorado Plateau, a region composed primarily of public land...Developing High-Resolution Soil Moisture Projections for the Contiguous U.S.
Ecological drought impacts ecosystems across the U.S. that support a wide array of economic activity and ecosystem services. Managing drought-vulnerable natural resources is a growing challenge for federal, state and Tribal land managers. Plant communities and animal populations are strongly linked to patterns of drought and soil moisture availability. As a result, ecosystems may be heavily alteClimate Adaptation Strategies for Arid Grasslands
Helping National Parks in the 4-Corners region manage grasslands in a changing climate.Developing a Decision Support Framework for Prioritizing Pinyon Juniper Forest Treatments on the Colorado Plateau
Across the western U.S., pinyon and juniper trees are expanding into sagebrush and grassland plant communities. This vegetation change has been perceived to have a significant impact on the economic value of these grasslands, which support activities such as livestock grazing and hunting, but expanding pinyon and juniper forests may also lead to increased risk of fire. Over the past several decadeModernizing sensor data workflows to leverage Internet of Things (IoT) and cloud-based technologies
Drought is a major problem in the American Southwest that is expected to worsen under the effects of climate change. Currently, the Southwest Biological Science Center is monitoring the effects of drought with soil moisture probes in a range of ecosystems across an elevational gradient on the Colorado Plateau. These data are used in multiple studies to analyze the effects of drought on vegetationContributions to the development of the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Sagebrush Conservation Strategy
USGS scientists are contributing to the development of the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Sagebrush Conservation Strategy, a strategy intended to provide guidance so that efforts to conserve the iconic greater sage-grouse can be expanded to the entire sagebrush biome to benefit the people and wildlife that depend on it.Ecological Forecasting Workshop
Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending changes in ecosystem dynamics (that is, the approaching near-term changes in ecosystems). Managers may use the information in fDetermining Successful Management and Restoration Strategies for Pinyon-Juniper Communities in the Face of Changing Climate and Wildfire
Pinyon-juniper woodlands are important ecosystems in the western U.S. that provide numerous critical environmental, economic, and cultural benefits. For example, pinyon pines are a significant cultural resource for multiple Native American Tribes and provide necessary habitat for plants and wildlife (including at risk species, such as the pinyon-jay). Despite their importance, stress put on pinyonCan Management Actions Support Forest Regeneration Across the Diverse Landscapes and Climate Change Futures of the Southwestern U.S.?
Ponderosa pine forests are declining and their future persistence is uncertain. Most research on forest declines has focused on the effects of disturbances including wildfire, insect outbreaks, and severe drought on mortality of mature trees. Yet, recent research suggests that ponderosa pine declines may be even more severe as these ecosystems fail to regenerate naturally (i.e. grow from seed to a - Data
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Site characterization and regeneration attributes of managed and unmanaged ponderosa pine sites in the southwestern United States
These data consist of environmental covariates, measured plot-level and tree characteristics for seven coniferous tree species across the southwestern United States. The objectives of the study were to assess how growth characteristics of conifer tree species vary across environmental gradients and across the different tree species. These data represent conifer growth under a variety of stand andObserved wildfire frequency, modelled wildfire probability, climate, and fine fuels across the big sagebrush region in the western United States
These data were compiled so that annual wildfire could be modelled across the sagebrush region in the western United States. Our goal was to understand how wildfire probability relates to climate and fuel conditions across the entire sagebrush region. To do this we developed a statistical model that represents the relationship between annual wildfire probability and a small number of climate and fBioclimatic suitability for 11 dominant Colorado Plateau perennial grass species (ver. 2.0, November 2022)
These data were compiled to represent the distribution of environmental conditions with recognized importance to perennial grasses in dryland areas of the western U.S. Objective(s) of our study were to … evaluate how those environmental drivers are related to perennial grass distributions and use the results to assess how perennial grass distributions may shift in response to future climate changeBiome-wide sagebrush core habitat and growth areas estimated from a threat-based conservation design
These data were compiled as a part of a landscape conservation design effort for the sagebrush biome, and are the result of applying a spatially explicit model that assessed geographic patterns in sagebrush ecological integrity and used these results to identify Core Sagebrush Areas (CSAs), Growth Opportunity Areas (GOAs), and Other Rangeland Areas (ORAs). Our overall objective in this study was tPinyon-juniper basal area, climate and demographics data from National Forest Inventory plots and projected under future density and climate conditions
These data were compiled to help understand how climate change may impact dryland pinyon-juniper ecosystems in coming decades, and how resource management might be able to minimize those impacts. Objective(s) of our study were to model the demographic rates of PJ woodlands to estimate the areas that may decline in the future vs. those that will be stable. We quantified populations growth rates acrHistorical and future ecological drought conditions for rangelands of the western U.S.
These NetCDF data were compiled to investigate how rangelands in the western U.S. are limited by access to water. As a result, these ecosystems may be especially vulnerable to changes in water availability and drought as a result of climate change. This project utilized an ecosystem water balance model to quantify spatial and temporal patterns of rangeland ecological drought conditions under histoHigh-resolution maps of historical and 21st century soil temperature and moisture data using multivariate matching algorithms for drylands of western U.S. and Canada
These data were compiled as a supplement to a previously published journal article (Bradford et al., 2019), that employed a ecosystem water balance model to characterize current and future patterns in soil temperature and moisture conditions in dryland areas of western North America. Also, these data are associated with a published USGS data release (Bradford and Schlaepfer, 2019). The objectivesHigh-resolution maps of projected big sagebrush plant community biomass for 52 future climate scenarios using multivariate matching algorithms
These data were compiled for the study: Divergent climate change effects on widespread dryland plant communities driven by climatic and ecohydrological gradients. The objectives of our study were to (1) describe how climate change will alter the biomass and composition of key plant functional types; (2) quantify the impacts of climate change on future functional type biomass and composition alongHigh-resolution maps of historical and 21st century ecological drought metrics using multivariate matching algorithms for drylands of western U.S. and Canada
These data were compiled using a new multivariate matching algorithm that transfers simulated soil moisture conditions (Bradford et al. 2020) from an original 10-km resolution to a 30-arcsec spatial resolution. Also, these data are a supplement to a previously published journal article (Bradford et al., 2020) and USGS data release (Bradford and Schlaepfer, 2020). The objectives of our study were tClimate and drought adaptation: historical and projected future exposure metrics for Southeastern Utah Group National Parks
These data were compiled to evaluate the magnitude and direction of change from historical conditions in climate metrics across the Southeastern Utah Group (SEUG) of National Parks. Objective(s) of our study were to quantify the magnitude and direction of change from historical conditions in climate metrics across SEUG parks at a meaningful scale for land managers and practitioners. These data repEstimated tree mortality, basal area, climate, and drought conditions for ponderosa pine in forest inventory plots across the western U.S.
These data consist of environmental covariates and estimated plot-level mortality of ponderosa pine trees. Environmental covariates include growing season temperature and soil moisture, and values are summarized into long-term mean conditions, and anomalies observed between forest inventory sampling events for each plot. Data also include plot locations (with uncertainty introduced by the US ForesHigh-resolution maps of big sagebrush plant community biomass using multivariate matching algorithms
These GeoTIFF data were compiled to investigate how a new multivariate matching algorithm transfers simulated plant functional biomass of big sagebrush plant communities from 200 sites to a gridded product with 30-arcsec spatial resolution. Objectives of our study were to (1) describe how climate change will alter the biomass and composition of key plant functional types; (2) quantify the impacts - Multimedia
Drylands of Southern Utah
USGS Image Drylands of Southern Utah - April 28, 2014
USGS Image Drylands of Southern Utah - April 28, 2014
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Colorado River Basin Projects
The Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology Team has created an interactive map of USGS projects to highlight the integrated science currently conducted within the Colorado River Basin. These projects are not all inclusive of the work conducted by the USGS within the CRB, but highlight the broad range of integrated science currently conducted.
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