John B Bradford, Ph.D.
John Bradford is a Research Ecologist with the USGS Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center. John studies dryland ecosystems in the context of global change and works with resource managers to identify adaptive strategies for sustaining these ecosystems in a changing world.
John focuses on understanding how changing climate, disturbances, and land use influence dryland vegetation, plant communities, and ecosystem services. He is currently engaged in the broad topics of ecohydrology and dryland sustainability in the western U.S. and has projects examining a) the potential influence of changing climatic conditions on the distribution and regeneration potential of trees and shrubs in the intermountain western U.S., b) strategies for understanding and enhancing dryland ecosystem resilience to changing climate and drought patterns, and c) ecosystem water balance and patterns of plant-available soil water in dryland regions.
Professional Experience
2011- Present: Research Ecologist - US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ
2006 - 2011: Research Ecologist - USDA Forest Service, North Central Research Station, Grand Rapids, MN
2004 - 2006: Research Ecologist (Postdoctoral) - USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO
Education and Certifications
2004 - Ph.D., Ecology, Colorado State University
1996 - B.A., Biology, Cornell University
Science and Products
Seasonal precipitation and soil moisture relationships across forests and woodlands in the southwestern United States
Forest management under megadrought: Urgent actions needed at finer-scale and higher intensity
Non-analog increases to air, surface, and belowground temperature extreme events due to climate change
Landscape‐scale restoration minimizes tree growth vulnerability to 21st century drought in a dry forest
An integrative ecological drought framework to span plant stress to ecosystem transformation
Unfamiliar territory: Emerging themes for ecological drought research and management
Forest density intensifies the importance of snowpack to growth in water-limited pine forests
Ecological forecasting—21st century science for 21st century management
Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending near-term changes in ecosystem conditions or dynamics. Managers may use the information in forecasts to minimize the adverse ef
Community for data integration 2018 funded project report
Robust ecological drought projections for drylands in the 21st century
Low stand density moderates growth declines during hot droughts in semi-arid forests
Small-scale water deficits after wildfires create long-lasting ecological impacts
Science and Products
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Seasonal precipitation and soil moisture relationships across forests and woodlands in the southwestern United States
Precipitation [P: mm] controls forest and woodland dynamics in the southwestern United States (SWUS) by altering soil moisture [θ: mm3 mm−3] availability, but the influence of P on θ is complex, varying across space and time. We evaluated seasonal P and θ relationships at shallow (0‐20 cm) and intermediate (50 cm) soil depths for 9 semiarid forest and woodland sites (56 total years), which comprisAuthorsC.R. Koehn, M.D. Petrie, John B. Bradford, M.E. Litvak, S. StrachanForest management under megadrought: Urgent actions needed at finer-scale and higher intensity
Drought and warming increasingly are causing widespread tree die-offs and extreme wildfires. Forest managers are struggling to improve anticipatory forest management practices given more frequent, extensive, and severe wildfire and tree die-off events triggered by “hotter drought”—drought under warmer than historical conditions. Of even greater concern is the increasing probability of multi-year dAuthorsJason P. Field, David D. Breshears, John B. Bradford, Darin J. Law, Xiaohui Feng, Craig D. AllenNon-analog increases to air, surface, and belowground temperature extreme events due to climate change
Air temperatures (Ta) are rising in a changing climate, increasing extreme temperature events. Examining how Ta increases are influencing extreme temperatures at the soil surface and belowground in the soil profile can refine our understanding of the ecological consequences of rising temperatures. In this paper, we validate surface and soil temperature (Ts: 0–100-cm depth) simulations in the SOILWAuthorsM.D. Petrie, John B. Bradford, W.K. Lauenroth, D.R. Schlaepfer, Caitlin M. Andrews, D.M. BellLandscape‐scale restoration minimizes tree growth vulnerability to 21st century drought in a dry forest
Increasing aridity is a challenge for forest managers and reducing stand density to minimize competition is a recognized strategy to mitigate drought impacts on growth. In many dry forests, the most widespread and common forest management programs currently being implemented focus on restoration of historical stand structures, primarily to minimize fire risk and enhance watershed function. The impAuthorsJohn B. Bradford, Caitlin M. Andrews, Marcos D. Robles, Lisa A. McCauley, Travis Woolley, Robert MarshallAn integrative ecological drought framework to span plant stress to ecosystem transformation
Droughts have increased globally in the twenty-first century and are expected to become more extreme and widespread in the future. Assessments of how drought affects plants and ecosystems lack consistency in scope and methodology, confounding efforts to mechanistically interpret structural and functional impacts and predict future transformations under climate change. To promote integration amongAuthorsSeth M. Munson, John B. Bradford, Kevin R. HultineUnfamiliar territory: Emerging themes for ecological drought research and management
Novel forms of drought are emerging globally, due to climate change, shifting teleconnection patterns, expanding human water use, and a history of human influence on the environment that increases the probability of transformational ecological impacts. These costly ecological impacts cascade to human communities, and understanding this changing drought landscape is one of today’s grand challenges.AuthorsShelley D. Crausbay, Julio L. Betancourt, John B. Bradford, Jennifer M. Cartwright, William C. Dennison, Jason B. Dunham, Carolyn Armstrong Enquist, Abby G. Frazier, Kimberly R. Hall, Jeremy Littell, Charlie H. Luce, Richard Palmer, Aaron R. Ramirez, Imtiaz Rangwala, Laura Thompson, Brianne M. Walsh, Shawn CarterForest density intensifies the importance of snowpack to growth in water-limited pine forests
Warming climate and resulting declines in seasonal snowpack have been associated with drought stress and tree mortality in seasonally snow‐covered watersheds worldwide. Meanwhile, increasing forest density has further exacerbated drought stress due to intensified tree‐tree competition. Using a uniquely detailed dataset of population‐level forest growth (n=2495 sampled trees), we examined how interAuthorsKelly Erika Gleason, John B. Bradford, Anthony W. D'Amato, Shawn Fraver, Brian J. Palik, Michael A. BattagliaEcological forecasting—21st century science for 21st century management
Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending near-term changes in ecosystem conditions or dynamics. Managers may use the information in forecasts to minimize the adverse ef
AuthorsJohn B. Bradford, Jake Weltzin, Molly L. McCormick, Jill Baron, Zack Bowen, Sky Bristol, Daren Carlisle, Theresa Crimmins, Paul C. Cross, Joe DeVivo, Mike Dietze, Mary Freeman, Jason Goldberg, Mevin Hooten, Leslie Hsu, Karen Jenni, Jennifer L. Keisman, Jonathan Kennen, Kathy Lee, David P. Lesmes, Keith Loftin, Brian W. Miller, Peter S. Murdoch, Jana Newman, Karen L. Prentice, Imtiaz Rangwala, Jordan Read, Jennifer Sieracki, Helen Sofaer, Steve Thur, Gordon Toevs, Francisco Werner, C. LeAnn White, Timothy White, Mark T. WiltermuthByEcosystems Mission Area, Water Resources Mission Area, Science Synthesis, Analysis and Research Program, Contaminant Biology, Environmental Health Program, Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS) Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Fort Collins Science Center, Kansas Water Science Center, Maryland-Delaware-D.C. Water Science Center, National Wildlife Health Center, New Jersey Water Science Center, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center, Southwest Biological Science Center, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, Upper Midwest Water Science CenterCommunity for data integration 2018 funded project report
The U.S. Geological Survey Community for Data Integration annually funds small projects focusing on data integration for interdisciplinary research, innovative data management, and demonstration of new technologies. This report provides a summary of the 10 projects funded in fiscal year 2018, outlining their goals, activities, and accomplishments.AuthorsLeslie Hsu, Caitlin M. Andrews, John B. Bradford, Daniel D. Buscombe, Katherine J. Chase, Wesley M. Daniel, Jeanne M. Jones, Pam Fuller, Benjamin B. Mirus, Matthew E. Neilson, Hans W. Vraga, Jessica J. Walker, Dennis H. Walworth, Jonathan Warrick, Jake Weltzin, Daniel J. Wieferich, Nathan J. WoodRobust ecological drought projections for drylands in the 21st century
(Bradford) Dryland ecosystems may be especially vulnerable to expected 21st century increases in temperatures and aridity because they are tightly controlled by patterns of moisture availability. However, climate impact assessments in drylands are difficult because ecological dynamics are dictated by drought conditions that are difficult to define and complex to estimate from climate conditions alAuthorsJohn B. Bradford, Daniel Rodolphe Schlaepfer, William K. Lauenroth, Kyle A. PalmquistLow stand density moderates growth declines during hot droughts in semi-arid forests
Increasing heat and aridity in coming decades is expected to negatively impact tree growth and threaten forest sustainability in dry areas. Maintaining low stand density has the potential to mitigate the negative effects of increasingly severe droughts by minimizing competitive intensity.However, the direct impact of stand density on the growing environment (i.e. soil moisture), and the specific dAuthorsCaitlin M. Andrews, Anthony W. D'Amato, Shawn Fraver, Brian Palik, Michael A. Battaglia, John B. BradfordSmall-scale water deficits after wildfires create long-lasting ecological impacts
Ecological droughts are deficits in soil–water availability that induce threshold-like ecosystem responses, such as causing altered or degraded plant-community conditions, which can be exceedingly difficult to reverse. However, 'ecological drought' can be difficult to define, let alone to quantify, especially at spatial and temporal scales relevant to land managers. This is despite a growing needAuthorsRory O'Connor, Matthew Germino, David M Barnard, Caitlin M. Andrews, John B. Bradford, David Pilliod, Robert Arkle, Robert K Shriver - Science
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