John Sauer, Ph.D.
John Sauer is a Wildlife Biologist at the Eastern Ecological Science Center in Laurel, MD.
He has also worked as a Statistician with the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service and as a Lecturer at the University of Kansas. John is an Elective Fellow of the American Ornithological Society and serves on the Board of Editors of Ecology, Ecological Monographs, and Avian Conservation and Ecology. John has been awarded the AOS Ralph W. Schreiber Conservation Award (2018) and a United States Department of Interior Distinguished Service Award (2018).
John participates in a wide variety of research projects united by the general themes of population ecology, survey design and analysis, geographic and temporal analysis of population change, analysis of count data, geographical ecology, and summary and display of large-scale surveys. Current projects include:
Analysis of population change from count data-John has participated in a series of research projects associated with analysis of population change from count data. Along with a variety of collaborators, he develops methods for analysis of counts in which counts are modeled hierarchically, as over-dispersed Poisson random variables, allowing for adjustment of both factors that influence visibility of animals and factors that actually influence population sizes. These methods are presently being implemented for the North American Breeding Bird Survey, the Christmas Bird Count, breeding waterfowl surveys in the Northeastern United States and Canada, and the Woodcock Singing-ground Survey. The methods are also used for spatial modeling and landscape level analyses, addressing questions relevant to conservation and ecology. He conducts yearly analyses of all North American Breeding Bird Survey data, and consults with researchers and managers who use the database.
Development of internet-based procedures for summary and analysis of survey data-In collaboration with other Patuxent staff, John has developed a series of web sites that allow users access to information from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and other datasets. Survey data can be accessed at several geographic scales, from individual sample units to continental summaries. A recent innovation is development of a map-based application that integrates BBS and displays BBS results at multiple geographic scale, similar to USGS mapping products associated with water resources. Custom analyses of population change can be conducted for regions, species, and time periods specified by users. Website address: http://www.mbr-pwrc.usgs.gov
Evaluating the Design of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey-The Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (WBPHS) is a primary source of waterfowl population status and trend information for management of ducks in North America. John, along with colleagues in the United States Fish and Wildlife Service, are reviewing the current distributions of priority waterfowl species relative to the scope of the WBPHS, suggestin
Science and Products
The role of citizen science in bird conservation: The Christmas Bird Count and Breeding Bird Survey
Modeling participation duration, with application to the North American Breeding Bird Survey
Hierarchical model analysis of the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey
The North American Breeding Bird Survey 1966–2011: Summary analysis and species accounts
Golden eagle population trends in the western United States: 1968-2010
Using multi-species occupancy models in structured decision making on managed lands
Explaining local-scale species distributions: relative contributions of spatial autocorrelation and landscape heterogeneity for an avian assemblage
Modeling trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey data: a spatially explicit approach
Studying biodiversity: is a new paradigm really needed?
Analysis of the North American Breeding Bird Survey using hierarchical models
Global biodiversity: Indicators of recent declines
Monitoring bald eagles using lists of nests: Response to Watts and Duerr
Science and Products
- Science
- Data
- Publications
Filter Total Items: 216
The role of citizen science in bird conservation: The Christmas Bird Count and Breeding Bird Survey
Many birders in the United States, Canada, and Mexico are critical participants in bird monitoring and conservation activities. This linkage between recreational birders and avian conservation surveys is not new. It was established long before the internet and long before any fast communication facilitated the connection of birders to scientists. It started because a few key individuals realized tAuthorsJohn R. Sauer, Gregory S. ButcherModeling participation duration, with application to the North American Breeding Bird Survey
We consider “participation histories,” binary sequences consisting of alternating finite sequences of 1s and 0s, ending with an infinite sequence of 0s. Our work is motivated by a study of observer tenure in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). In our analysis, j indexes an observer’s years of service and Xj is an indicator of participation in the survey; 0s interspersed among 1s correspAuthorsWilliam A. Link, John R. SauerHierarchical model analysis of the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey
We used log-linear hierarchical models to analyze data from the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey. The survey has been conducted by state biologists each year since 1989 in the northeastern United States from Virginia north to New Hampshire and Vermont. Although yearly population estimates from the survey are used by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service for estimating regional waterAuthorsJohn R. Sauer, Guthrie S. Zimmerman, Jon D. Klimstra, William A. LinkThe North American Breeding Bird Survey 1966–2011: Summary analysis and species accounts
The North American Breeding Bird Survey is a roadside, count-based survey conducted by volunteer observers. Begun in 1966, it now is a primary source of information on spatial and temporal patterns of population change for North American birds. We analyze population change for states, provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and the entire survey within the contiguous United States and southern CanadAuthorsJohn R. Sauer, William A. Link, Jane E. Fallon, Keith L. Pardieck, David J. ZiolkowskiGolden eagle population trends in the western United States: 1968-2010
In 2009, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service promulgated permit regulations for the unintentional lethal take (anthropogenic mortality) and disturbance of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). Accurate population trend and size information for golden eagles are needed so agency biologists can make informed decisions when eagle take permits are requested. To address this need with available daAuthorsBrian A. Millsap, Guthrie S. Zimmerman, John R. Sauer, Ryan M. Nielson, Mark Otto, Emily Bjerre, Robert K. MurphyUsing multi-species occupancy models in structured decision making on managed lands
Land managers must balance the needs of a variety of species when manipulating habitats. Structured decision making provides a systematic means of defining choices and choosing among alternative management options; implementation of a structured decision requires quantitative approaches to predicting consequences of management on the relevant species. Multi-species occupancy models provide a conAuthorsJohn R. Sauer, Peter J. Blank, Elise F. Zipkin, Jane E. Fallon, Frederick W. FallonExplaining local-scale species distributions: relative contributions of spatial autocorrelation and landscape heterogeneity for an avian assemblage
Understanding interactions between mobile species distributions and landcover characteristics remains an outstanding challenge in ecology. Multiple factors could explain species distributions including endogenous evolutionary traits leading to conspecific clustering and endogenous habitat features that support life history requirements. Birds are a useful taxon for examining hypotheses about the rAuthorsBrady J. Mattsson, Elise F. Zipkin, Beth Gardner, Peter J. Blank, John R. Sauer, J. Andrew RoyleModeling trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey data: a spatially explicit approach
Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scaAuthorsFlorent Bled, John R. Sauer, Keith L. Pardieck, Paul Doherty, J. Andy RoyleStudying biodiversity: is a new paradigm really needed?
Authors in this journal have recommended a new approach to the conduct of biodiversity science. This data-driven approach requires the organization of large amounts of ecological data, analysis of these data to discover complex patterns, and subsequent development of hypotheses corresponding to detected patterns. This proposed new approach has been contrasted with more-traditional knowledge-basedAuthorsJames D. Nichols, Evan G. Cooch, Jonathan M. Nichols, John R. SauerAnalysis of the North American Breeding Bird Survey using hierarchical models
We analyzed population change for 420 bird species from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) using a hierarchical log-linear model and compared the results with those obtained through route-regression analysis. Survey-wide trend estimates based on the hierarchical model were generally more precise than estimates from the earlier analysis. No consistent pattern of differences existed in thAuthorsJohn R. Sauer, William LinkGlobal biodiversity: Indicators of recent declines
In 2002, world leaders committed, through the Convention on Biological Diversity, to achieve a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. We compiled 31 indicators to report on progress toward this target. Most indicators of the state of biodiversity (covering species’ population trends, extinction risk, habitat extent and condition, and community composition) showed declines,AuthorsStuart H.M. Butchart, Matt Walpole, Ben Collen, Arco Van Strien, Jorn P.W. Scharlemann, Rosamunde E.A. Almond, Jonathan E.M. Baillie, Bastian Bomhard, Claire Brown, John Bruno, Kent E. Carpenter, Genevieve M. Carr, Janice Chanson, Anna M. Chenery, Jorge Csirke, Nick C. Davidson, Frank Dentener, Matt Foster, Alessandro Galli, James N. Galloway, Piero Genovesi, Richard D. Gregory, Marc Hockings, Valerie Kapos, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Fiona Leverington, Jonathan Loh, Melodie A. McGeoch, Louise McRae, Anahit Minasyan, Monica Hernandez Morcillo, Thomasina E.E. Oldfield, Daniel Pauly, Suhel Quader, Carmen Revenga, John R. Sauer, Benjamin Skolnik, Dian Spear, Damon Stanwell-Smith, Simon N. Stuart, Andy Symes, Megan Tierney, Tristan D. Tyrrell, Jean-Christophe Vie, Reg WatsonMonitoring bald eagles using lists of nests: Response to Watts and Duerr
The post-delisting monitoring plan for bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) roposed use of a dual-frame sample design, in which sampling of known nest sites in combination with additional area-based sampling is used to estimate total number of nesting bald eagle pairs. Watts and Duerr (2010) used data from repeated observations of bald eagle nests in Virginia, USA to estimate a nest turnover ratAuthorsJohn R. Sauer, Mark C. Otto, William L. Kendall, Guthrie S. Zimmerman - Web Tools