John Sauer, Ph.D.
John Sauer is a Wildlife Biologist at the Eastern Ecological Science Center in Laurel, MD.
He has also worked as a Statistician with the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service and as a Lecturer at the University of Kansas. John is an Elective Fellow of the American Ornithological Society and serves on the Board of Editors of Ecology, Ecological Monographs, and Avian Conservation and Ecology. John has been awarded the AOS Ralph W. Schreiber Conservation Award (2018) and a United States Department of Interior Distinguished Service Award (2018).
John participates in a wide variety of research projects united by the general themes of population ecology, survey design and analysis, geographic and temporal analysis of population change, analysis of count data, geographical ecology, and summary and display of large-scale surveys. Current projects include:
Analysis of population change from count data-John has participated in a series of research projects associated with analysis of population change from count data. Along with a variety of collaborators, he develops methods for analysis of counts in which counts are modeled hierarchically, as over-dispersed Poisson random variables, allowing for adjustment of both factors that influence visibility of animals and factors that actually influence population sizes. These methods are presently being implemented for the North American Breeding Bird Survey, the Christmas Bird Count, breeding waterfowl surveys in the Northeastern United States and Canada, and the Woodcock Singing-ground Survey. The methods are also used for spatial modeling and landscape level analyses, addressing questions relevant to conservation and ecology. He conducts yearly analyses of all North American Breeding Bird Survey data, and consults with researchers and managers who use the database.
Development of internet-based procedures for summary and analysis of survey data-In collaboration with other Patuxent staff, John has developed a series of web sites that allow users access to information from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and other datasets. Survey data can be accessed at several geographic scales, from individual sample units to continental summaries. A recent innovation is development of a map-based application that integrates BBS and displays BBS results at multiple geographic scale, similar to USGS mapping products associated with water resources. Custom analyses of population change can be conducted for regions, species, and time periods specified by users. Website address: http://www.mbr-pwrc.usgs.gov
Evaluating the Design of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey-The Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (WBPHS) is a primary source of waterfowl population status and trend information for management of ducks in North America. John, along with colleagues in the United States Fish and Wildlife Service, are reviewing the current distributions of priority waterfowl species relative to the scope of the WBPHS, suggestin
Science and Products
Enhancing the scientific value of the Christmas Bird Count
Amphibian research and monitoring initiative: Concepts and implementation
Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey as a tool for conservation: A critique of Bart et al. (2004)
Using Christmas Bird Count data to assess population dynamics and trends of waterbirds
Hierarchical models and Bayesian analysis of bird survey information
Use of survey data to define regional and local priorities for management on National Wildlife Refuges
Population trends of North American sea ducks as revealed by the Christmas Bird Count
USGS bird and land-cover data: Regional bird conservation internet mapping tool takes flight with GIS
Estimation of stream salamander (Plethodontidae, Desmognathinae and Plethodontinae) populations in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA
Statistical approaches to the analysis of point count data: A little extra information can go a long way
General constraints on sampling wildlife on FIA plots
Population trends of North American sea ducks based on Christmas Bird Count and Breeding Bird Survey data
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Enhancing the scientific value of the Christmas Bird Count
The Christmas Bird Count (CBC), conducted by the National Audubon Society (NAS) since 1900, constitutes the longest-running and geographically most widespread survey of bird life in the Western Hemisphere. Starting with 25 count locations in its first year, the program has grown continuously ever since, with 20–30 locations currently being added annually. Each CBC consists of a tally of all birdsAuthorsErica H. Dunn, C.M. Francis, P.J. Blancher, S.R. Drennan, M.A. Howe, D. Lepage, Chandler S. Robbins, K.V. Rosenberg, J.R. Sauer, Kimberly G. SmithAmphibian research and monitoring initiative: Concepts and implementation
This report provides the basis for discussion and subsequent articulation of a national plan for the Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI). The authors were members of a task force formed from within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that included scientists with expertise in biology, cartography, hydrology, and statistics. The assignment of the task force was to extend work begun byAuthorsP. S. Corn, M.J. Adams, W.A. Battaglin, Alisa L. Gallant, D.L. James, M. Knutson, C.A. Langtimm, J.R. SauerUsing the North American Breeding Bird Survey as a tool for conservation: A critique of Bart et al. (2004)
Bart et al. (2004) develop methods for predicting needed samples for estimation of long-term trends from Count survey data, and they apply these methods to the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). They recommend adding approximately 40% more survey routes ill the BBS to allow for estimation of long-term (i.e., 20 year) trends for a collection of species. We critique several aspects of theiAuthorsJohn R. Sauer, William A. Link, James D. Nichols, J. Andrew RoyleUsing Christmas Bird Count data to assess population dynamics and trends of waterbirds
No abstract available.AuthorsG.S. Butcher, D.K. Niven, J.R. SauerHierarchical models and Bayesian analysis of bird survey information
Summary of bird survey information is a critical component of conservation activities, but often our summaries rely on statistical methods that do not accommodate the limitations of the information. Prioritization of species requires ranking and analysis of species by magnitude of population trend, but often magnitude of trend is a misleading measure of actual decline when trend is poorly estimatAuthorsJ.R. Sauer, W. A. Link, J. Andrew RoyleUse of survey data to define regional and local priorities for management on National Wildlife Refuges
National Wildlife Refuges must manage habitats to support a variety of species that often have conflicting needs. To make reasonable management decisions, managers must know what species are priorities for their refuges and the relative importance of the species. Unfortunately, species priorities are often set regionally, but refuges must develop local priorities that reconcile regional prioritiAuthorsJ.R. Sauer, John F. Casey, H. Laskowski, J.D. Taylor, J. FallonPopulation trends of North American sea ducks as revealed by the Christmas Bird Count
Relative to other waterfowl, sea ducks are not well understood, yet evidence from a variety of analyses suggests that as many as 10 of the 15 species of North American sea ducks may be declining in population. However, because of the difficulty of conducting surveys of breeding populations and the lack of range-wide winter surveys, few data are available to assess the population trends of sea ducAuthorsD.K. Niven, J.R. Sauer, G.S. ButcherUSGS bird and land-cover data: Regional bird conservation internet mapping tool takes flight with GIS
No abstract available.AuthorsJ.C. Nelson, M.G. Fox, M. G. Knutson, J.R. Sauer, W.E. ThogmartinEstimation of stream salamander (Plethodontidae, Desmognathinae and Plethodontinae) populations in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA
Stream salamanders in the family Plethodontidae constitute a large biomass in and near headwater streams in the eastern United States and are promising indicators of stream ecosystem health. Many studies of stream salamanders have relied on population indices based on counts rather than population estimates based on techniques such as capture-recapture and removal. Application of estimation procAuthorsR.E. Jung, J. Andrew Royle, J.R. Sauer, C. Addison, R.D. Rau, J.L. Shirk, J.C. WhisselStatistical approaches to the analysis of point count data: A little extra information can go a long way
Point counts are a standard sampling procedure for many bird species, but lingering concerns still exist about the quality of information produced from the method. It is well known that variation in observer ability and environmental conditions can influence the detection probability of birds in point counts, but many biologists have been reluctant to abandon point counts in favor of more intensiAuthorsG.L. Farnsworth, J. D. Nichols, J.R. Sauer, S.G. Fancy, K. H. Pollock, S.A. Shriner, T.R. SimonsGeneral constraints on sampling wildlife on FIA plots
This paper reviews the constraints to sampling wildlife populations at FIA points. Wildlife sampling programs must have well-defined goals and provide information adequate to meet those goals. Investigators should choose a State variable based on information needs and the spatial sampling scale. We discuss estimation-based methods for three State variables: species richness, abundance, and patcAuthorsL.L. Bailey, J.R. Sauer, J. D. Nichols, P.H. GeisslerPopulation trends of North American sea ducks based on Christmas Bird Count and Breeding Bird Survey data
Due to the difficulty of conducting range-wide surveys of either breeding or wintering populations, few data are available to assess the population trends of sea ducks with confidence. We analyze sea duck data from the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) using hierarchical modeling methods that control for varying effort among circles and over time. These procedures allow us to assess early-winteAuthorsD.K. Niven, J.R. Sauer, G.S. Butcher - Web Tools