John Sauer, Ph.D.
John Sauer is a Wildlife Biologist at the Eastern Ecological Science Center in Laurel, MD.
He has also worked as a Statistician with the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service and as a Lecturer at the University of Kansas. John is an Elective Fellow of the American Ornithological Society and serves on the Board of Editors of Ecology, Ecological Monographs, and Avian Conservation and Ecology. John has been awarded the AOS Ralph W. Schreiber Conservation Award (2018) and a United States Department of Interior Distinguished Service Award (2018).
John participates in a wide variety of research projects united by the general themes of population ecology, survey design and analysis, geographic and temporal analysis of population change, analysis of count data, geographical ecology, and summary and display of large-scale surveys. Current projects include:
Analysis of population change from count data-John has participated in a series of research projects associated with analysis of population change from count data. Along with a variety of collaborators, he develops methods for analysis of counts in which counts are modeled hierarchically, as over-dispersed Poisson random variables, allowing for adjustment of both factors that influence visibility of animals and factors that actually influence population sizes. These methods are presently being implemented for the North American Breeding Bird Survey, the Christmas Bird Count, breeding waterfowl surveys in the Northeastern United States and Canada, and the Woodcock Singing-ground Survey. The methods are also used for spatial modeling and landscape level analyses, addressing questions relevant to conservation and ecology. He conducts yearly analyses of all North American Breeding Bird Survey data, and consults with researchers and managers who use the database.
Development of internet-based procedures for summary and analysis of survey data-In collaboration with other Patuxent staff, John has developed a series of web sites that allow users access to information from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and other datasets. Survey data can be accessed at several geographic scales, from individual sample units to continental summaries. A recent innovation is development of a map-based application that integrates BBS and displays BBS results at multiple geographic scale, similar to USGS mapping products associated with water resources. Custom analyses of population change can be conducted for regions, species, and time periods specified by users. Website address: http://www.mbr-pwrc.usgs.gov
Evaluating the Design of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey-The Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (WBPHS) is a primary source of waterfowl population status and trend information for management of ducks in North America. John, along with colleagues in the United States Fish and Wildlife Service, are reviewing the current distributions of priority waterfowl species relative to the scope of the WBPHS, suggestin
Science and Products
Model selection for the North American Breeding Bird Survey: A comparison of methods
Integrating Breeding Bird Survey and demographic data to estimate Wood Duck population size in the Atlantic Flyway
The first 50 years of the North American Breeding Bird Survey
Allowable take of a population of red-winged blackbirds in the northern Great Plains
Expanding the North American Breeding Bird Survey analysis to include additional species and regions
An integrated population model for bird monitoring in North America
Bayesian cross-validation for model evaluation and selection, with application to the North American Breeding Bird Survey
Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents
Population trends for North American winter birds based on hierarchical models
A centroid model of species distribution with applications to the Carolina wren Thryothorus ludovicianus and house finch Haemorhous mexicanus in the United States
Combining waterfowl and breeding bird survey data to estimate wood duck breeding population size in the Atlantic Flyway
A plan for the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat)
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Model selection for the North American Breeding Bird Survey: A comparison of methods
The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides data for >420 bird species at multiple geographic scales over 5 decades. Modern computational methods have facilitated the fitting of complex hierarchical models to these data. It is easy to propose and fit new models, but little attention has been given to model selection. Here, we discuss and illustrate model selection using leave-one-out crAuthorsWilliam A. Link, John R. Sauer, Daniel NivenIntegrating Breeding Bird Survey and demographic data to estimate Wood Duck population size in the Atlantic Flyway
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) uses data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to assist in monitoring and management of some migratory birds. However, BBS analyses provide indices of population change rather than estimates of population size, precluding their use in developing abundance-based objectives and limiting applicability to harvest management. Wood Ducks (Aix spoAuthorsGuthrie S. Zimmerman, John R. Sauer, G. Scott Boomer, Patrick K. Devers, Pamela R. GarrettsonThe first 50 years of the North American Breeding Bird Survey
The vision of Chandler (Chan) S. Robbins for a continental-scale omnibus survey of breeding birds led to the development of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Chan was uniquely suited to develop the BBS. His position as a government scientist had given him experience with designing and implementing continental-scale surveys, his research background made him an effective advocate of theAuthorsJohn R. Sauer, David Ziolkowski, Keith L. Pardieck, Adam C. Smith, Marie-Anne R. Hudson, Vicente Rodriguez, Humberto Berlanga, Daniel Niven, William A. LinkAllowable take of a population of red-winged blackbirds in the northern Great Plains
Red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) are protected under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act (MBTA), which has provisions against take. Blackbirds may be taken legally without a Federal permit, however, under an existing Depredation Order (50 CFR 21.43), which allows for take of blackbirds that are in the process of doing, or about to do, agricultural damage. Modeling the effect of take on blackbAuthorsMichael C. Runge, John R. SauerExpanding the North American Breeding Bird Survey analysis to include additional species and regions
The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) contains data for >700 bird species, but analyses often focus on a core group of ∼420 species. We analyzed data for 122 species of North American birds for which data exist in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) database but are not routinely analyzed on the BBS Summary and Analysis Website. Many of these species occur in the northern part ofAuthorsJohn R. Sauer, Daniel Niven, Keith L. Pardieck, David Ziolkowski, William A. LinkAn integrated population model for bird monitoring in North America
Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a unified framework for simultaneously analyzing data sets of different types to estimate vital rates, population size, and dynamics; assess contributions of demographic parameters to population changes; and assess population viability. Strengths of an IPM include the ability to estimate latent parameters and improve the precision of parameter estimates.AuthorsFarshid S. Ahrestani, James F. Saracco, John R. Sauer, Keith L. Pardieck, J. Andrew RoyleBayesian cross-validation for model evaluation and selection, with application to the North American Breeding Bird Survey
The analysis of ecological data has changed in two important ways over the last 15 years. The development and easy availability of Bayesian computational methods has allowed and encouraged the fitting of complex hierarchical models. At the same time, there has been increasing emphasis on acknowledging and accounting for model uncertainty. Unfortunately, the ability to fit complex models has outstrAuthorsWilliam A. Link, John R. SauerConsistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents
Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups ofAuthorsPhilip A. Stephens, Lucy R. Mason, Rhys E. Green, Richard D. Gregory, John R. Sauer, Jamie Alison, Ainars Aunins, Lluís Brotons, Stuart H.M. Butchart, Tommaso Campedelli, Tomasz Chodkiewicz, Przemyslaw Chylarecki, Olivia Crowe, Jaanus Elts, Virginia Escandell, Ruud P.B. Foppen, Henning Heldbjerg, Sergi Herrando, Magne Husby, Frédéric Jiguet, Aleksi Lehikoinen, Åke Lindström, David G. Noble, Jean-Yves Paquet, Jiri Reif, Thomas Sattler, Tibor Szép, Norbert Teufelbauer, Sven Trautmann, Arco Van Strien, Chris A.M. van Turnhout, Petr Vorisek, Stephen G. WillisPopulation trends for North American winter birds based on hierarchical models
Managing widespread and persistent threats to birds requires knowledge of population dynamics at large spatial and temporal scales. For over 100 yrs, the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) has enlisted volunteers in bird monitoring efforts that span the Americas, especially southern Canada and the United States. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical model to control for variation in survey effort amAuthorsCandan U. Soykan, John R. Sauer, Justin G. Schuetz, Geoffrey S. LeBaron, Kathy Dale, Gary M. LanghamA centroid model of species distribution with applications to the Carolina wren Thryothorus ludovicianus and house finch Haemorhous mexicanus in the United States
Drastic shifts in species distributions are a cause of concern for ecologists. Such shifts pose great threat to biodiversity especially under unprecedented anthropogenic and natural disturbances. Many studies have documented recent shifts in species distributions. However, most of these studies are limited to regional scales, and do not consider the abundance structure within species ranges. DevelAuthorsQiongyu Huang, John R. Sauer, Anu Swatantran, Ralph DubayahCombining waterfowl and breeding bird survey data to estimate wood duck breeding population size in the Atlantic Flyway
We combined data from the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey (AFBWS) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to estimate the number of wood ducks (Aix sponsa) in the United States portion of the Atlantic Flyway from 1993 to 2013. The AFBWS is a plot-based survey that covers most of the northern and central portions of the Flyway; when analyzed with adjustments for survey time of dAuthorsGuthrie S. Zimmerman, John R. Sauer, Kathy Fleming, William A. Link, Pamela R. GarrettsonA plan for the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat)
The purpose of the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) is to create a continent-wide program to monitor bats at local to rangewide scales that will provide reliable data to promote effective conservation decisionmaking and the long-term viability of bat populations across the continent. This is an international, multiagency program. Four approaches will be used to gather monitoring dataAuthorsSusan C. Loeb, Thomas J. Rodhouse, Laura E. Ellison, Cori L. Lausen, Jonathan D. Reichard, Kathryn M. Irvine, Thomas E. Ingersoll, Jeremy T. H. Coleman, Wayne E. Thogmartin, John R. Sauer, Charles M. Francis, Mylea L. Bayless, Thomas R. Stanley, Douglas H. Johnson - Web Tools