Jon Keeley
Dr. Keeley is currently a research scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey, stationed at Sequoia National Park.
Prior to this appointment, he served one year in Washington, D.C. as director of the ecology program for the National Science Foundation. He was professor of biology at Occidental College for 20 years and spent a sabbatical year at the University of Cape Town, South Africa. He has more than 350 publications in national and international scientific journals and books. His research has focused on ecological impacts of wildfires as well as other aspects of plant ecology, including rare plants, rare habitats such as vernal pools, and plant physiology. In 1985 he was awarded a Guggenheim Fellowship and is a Fellow of the Ecological Society of America and an Honorary Lifetime Member of the California Botanical Society. He has served on the Los Angeles County Department of Regional Planning Environmental Review Board, and the State of California Natural Communities Conservation Program (NCCP) Board of Scientific Advisors.
Professional Experience
U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Research Scientist
(ST Scientist), 2015–present
(GS series 0408), 1998–present
University of California, Los Angeles, Adjunct Full Professor, 2001-present
Rancho Santa Ana Botanic Garden, Research Associate, 1997–present
National Science Foundation, Program Director 1997–1998
Occidental College,
Professor 1988–1998
Department Chair 1982–1988
Assist/Assoc Professor 1977–1988
University of Cape Town, Visiting Professor 1990
Education and Certifications
Ph.D. (Botany) University of Georgia, Athens, 1977
M.S. (Biology) San Diego State University, 1973
B.S. (Biology) San Diego State University, 1971
Honors and Awards
Fellow, Ecological Society of America, 2014
Distinguished MEDECOS Fellow, 2011
USGS Performance Award, 2011
USGS Star Award, 2008
Honorary Lifetime Member, California Botanical Society, 1998
Fellow, Southern California Academy of Sciences, l994
Guggenheim Fellow, l985–l986
Sterling Award for Outstanding Teaching, l985
Science and Products
Large California wildfires: 2020 fires in historical context
Ignitions explain more than climate or weather in driving Santa Ana Wind fires
Wildfires and global change
U.S. Geological Survey wildland fire science strategic plan, 2021–26
Multiple-scale relationships between vegetation, the wildland–urban interface, and structure loss to wildfire in California
Contrasting prescription burning and wildfires in California Sierra Nevada national parks and adjacent national forests
Seed production patterns of surviving Sierra Nevada conifers show minimal change following drought
Effects of postfire climate and seed availability on postfire conifer regeneration
Why are so many structures burning in California?
Subspecies differentiation in an enigmatic chaparral shrub species
Protecting the wildland-urban interface in California: Greenbelts vs thinning for wildfire threats to homes
Nexus between wildfire, climate change and population growth in California
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Large California wildfires: 2020 fires in historical context
BackgroundCalifornia in the year 2020 experienced a record breaking number of large fires. Here, we place this and other recent years in a historical context by examining records of large fire events in the state back to 1860. Since drought is commonly associated with large fire events, we investigated the relationship of large fire events to droughts over this 160 years period.ResultsThis study sAuthorsJon Keeley, Alexandra D. SyphardIgnitions explain more than climate or weather in driving Santa Ana Wind fires
Autumn and winter Santa Ana wind (SAW)–driven wildfires play a substantial role in area burned and societal losses in southern California. Temperature during the event and antecedent precipitation in the week or month prior play a minor role in determining area burned. Burning is dependent on wind intensity and number of human-ignited fires. Over 75% of all SAW events generate no fires; rather, fiAuthorsJon Keeley, Janin Guzman-Morales, Alexander Gershunov, Alexandra D. Syphard, Daniel Cayan, David W Pierce, Michael Flannigan, Tim J BrownWildfires and global change
No single factor produces wildfires; rather, they occur when fire thresholds (ignitions, fuels, and drought) are crossed. Anomalous weather events may lower these thresholds and thereby enhance the likelihood and spread of wildfires. Climate change increases the frequency with which some of these thresholds are crossed, extending the duration of the fire season and increasing the frequency of dryAuthorsJuli G. Pausas, Jon KeeleyU.S. Geological Survey wildland fire science strategic plan, 2021–26
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Wildland Fire Science Strategic Plan defines critical, core fire science capabilities for understanding fire-related and fire-responsive earth system processes and patterns, and informing management decision making. Developed by USGS fire scientists and executive leadership, and informed by conversations with external stakeholders, the Strategic Plan is aligned wiAuthorsPaul F. Steblein, Rachel A. Loehman, Mark P. Miller, Joseph R. Holomuzki, Suzanna C. Soileau, Matthew L. Brooks, Mia Drane-Maury, Hannah M. Hamilton, Jason W. Kean, Jon E. Keeley, Robert R. Mason,, Alexa McKerrow, James Meldrum, Edmund B. Molder, Sheila F. Murphy, Birgit Peterson, Geoffrey S. Plumlee, Douglas J. Shinneman, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Alison YorkByEcosystems Mission Area, Natural Hazards Mission Area, Science Synthesis, Analysis and Research Program, Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS) Program, Alaska Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Fort Collins Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Geology, Geophysics, and Geochemistry Science Center, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC), Wildland Fire ScienceMultiple-scale relationships between vegetation, the wildland–urban interface, and structure loss to wildfire in California
Recent increases in destructive wildfires are driving a need for empirical research documenting factors that contribute to structure loss. Existing studies show that fire risk is complex and varies geographically, and the role of vegetation has been especially difficult to quantify. Here, we evaluated the relative importance of vegetation cover at local (measured through the Normalized DifferenceAuthorsAlexandra D. Syphard, Heather Rustigian-Romsos, Jon KeeleyContrasting prescription burning and wildfires in California Sierra Nevada national parks and adjacent national forests
History of prescription burning and wildfires in the three Sierra Nevada National Park Service (NPS) parks and adjacent US Forest Service (USFS) forests is presented. Annual prescription (Rx) burns began in 1968 in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, followed by Yosemite National Park and Lassen Volcanic National Park. During the last third of the 20th century, USFS national forests adjacentAuthorsJon Keeley, Anne Hopkins Pfaff, Anthony C. CaprioSeed production patterns of surviving Sierra Nevada conifers show minimal change following drought
Reproduction is a key component of ecological resilience in forest ecosystems, so understanding how seed production is influenced by extreme drought is key to understanding forest recovery trajectories. If trees respond to mortality-inducing drought by preferentially allocating resources for reproduction, the recovery of the stand to pre-drought conditions may be enhanced accordingly. We used a 20AuthorsMicah C. Wright, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Nathan L. Stephenson, Adrian Das, Jon KeeleyEffects of postfire climate and seed availability on postfire conifer regeneration
Large, severe fires are becoming more frequent in many forest types across the western United States and have resulted in tree mortality across tens of thousands of hectares. Conifer regeneration in these areas is limited because seeds must travel long distances to reach the interior of large burned patches and establishment is jeopardized by increasingly hot and dry conditions. To better inform pAuthorsJoseph A E Stewart, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Derek J N Young, Kristen L. Shive, Haiganoush K. Preisler, Adrian Das, Nathan L. Stephenson, Jon Keeley, Hugh D. Safford, Micah C. Wright, Kevin R Welch, James H. ThorneWhy are so many structures burning in California?
California has earned a reputation for wildfires that inflict serious damage on human infrastructure, dating back to images of Richard Nixon hosing down the roof of his house in the 1961 Bel-Air fire, and of the famous “fireproof” home of grocery store entrepreneur Fred Roberts burning to the ground in 1982. In recent years, this notoriety has been transformed into public alarm, reflected in the aAuthorsAlexandra D. Syphard, Jon KeeleySubspecies differentiation in an enigmatic chaparral shrub species
PremiseDelimiting biodiversity units is difficult in organisms in which differentiation is obscured by hybridization, plasticity, and other factors that blur phenotypic boundaries. Such work is more complicated when the focal units are subspecies, the definition of which has not been broadly explored in the era of modern genetic methods. Eastwood manzanita (Arctostaphylos glandulosa Eastw.) is a wAuthorsYi Huang, Glen R. Morrison, Alan Brelsford, Janet Franklin, Diana D Jolles, Jon Keeley, V Thomas Parker, Natalie Saavedra, Andrew C Sanders, Thomas Stoughton, Gregory A. Wahlert, Amy LittProtecting the wildland-urban interface in California: Greenbelts vs thinning for wildfire threats to homes
This study utilized native chaparral and sage scrub shrubs to evaluate the impact of light summer irrigation on live fuel moisture content (LFMC) and predicted fire behavior. As to be expected LFMC varied markedly throughout the year being over 100% in winter in all species and treatments but differed markedly by treatment in the summer and fall. For most species lightly irrigated plants had the hAuthorsJon Keeley, Greg Rubin, Teresa J. Brennan, Bernadette PiffardNexus between wildfire, climate change and population growth in California
Since the year 2000 California has experienced a remarkable upsurge in wildfires. Over five million hectares have burned in the last 20 years, which is double the area burned in the previous two decades. Much of this increase has been driven by large fires of more than 50,000 hectares that cause catastrophic losses of lives and property (Keeley and Syphard 2019). This increased fire activity has bAuthorsJon Keeley, Alexandra D. Syphard - Software
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