Kenneth J. Bagstad, Ph.D.
Ken Bagstad is a Research Economist working with the USGS’ Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center in Denver. He uses GIS and modeling to quantify, map, and value ecosystem service flows across the United States and internationally.
Ken co-leads work to develop natural capital accounts in the United States at national and regional scales and use this information to support resource management for federal government agencies. Ken has also co-led the development of content for the Artificial Intelligence for Environment & Sustainability (ARIES) project, which has developed software tools to deliver more timely and accurate information for environmental decision making. Through his work on ARIES, Ken has a long-standing interest in the use of artificial intelligence, particularly semantics and machine reasoning, to make scientific data and models interoperable and reusable by both people and computers.
From 2015-2016 Ken was seconded to the World Bank's Wealth Accounting and Valuation of Ecosystem Services (WAVES) Program as a Senior Environmental Specialist. He coordinated the development of ecosystem accounts and their application to national economic accounts in Colombia, Costa Rica, and Rwanda, and assisted with their development elsewhere. For the last several years he has co-taught an ecosystem services modeling course in Spain, and in 2015 he worked in Japan as a Japan Society for the Promotion of Science research fellow.
Professional Experience
Research Economist, USGS GECSC, 2013-present
Senior Environmental Specialist, Seconded to the Word Bank, 2015-2016
Mendenhall Postdoctoral Fellow, USGS, 2011-2013
Education and Certifications
Ph.D. (Natural Resources, certificate in ecological economics), University of Vermont
M.S. (Plant Biology, concentration in ecology), Arizona State University
B.A. (Botany and Environmental Studies), Ohio Wesleyan University
Science and Products
Progress in natural capital accounting for ecosystems
Sustaining Environmental Capital Initiative summary report
Toward ecosystem accounts for Rwanda: Tracking 25 years of change in potential supply and flows of ecosystem services
Review of indicators for comparing environmental effects across energy sources
Guidance for assessing interregional ecoystem service flows
Reimagining the potential of Earth observations for ecosystem service assessments
Ecosystem service flows from a migratory species: Spatial subsidies of the northern pintail
Social equity shapes zone-selection: Balancing aquatic biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services delivery in the transboundary Danube River Basin
Multi-country willingness to pay for transborder migratory species conservation: A case study of Northern Pintails
The natural capital accounting opportunity: Let's really do the numbers
Identification of conservation and restoration priority areas in the Danube River based on the multi-functionality of river-floodplain systems
Machine learning for ecosystem services
Non-USGS Publications**
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
Science and Products
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Filter Total Items: 75
Progress in natural capital accounting for ecosystems
Reversing the ongoing degradation of the planet's ecosystems requires timely and detailed monitoring of ecosystem change and uses. Yet, the System of National Accounts (SNA), first developed in response to the economic crisis of the 1930s and used by statistical offices worldwide to record economic activity (for example, production, consumption, and asset accumulation), does not make explicit eithAuthorsLars Hein, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Carl Obst, Bram Edens, Sjoerd Schenau, Gem Castillo, Francois Soulard, Claire Brown, Amanda Driver, Michael Bordt, Anton Steurer, Rocky Harris, Alejandro CapparrosSustaining Environmental Capital Initiative summary report
Federal agencies need credible scientific information to determine the production and value of ecosystem services in an efficient and timely manner. The U.S. Geological Survey addresses this scientific information need through the Sustaining Environmental Capital Initiative project. The project has relied on U.S. Geological Survey expertise related to water, fisheries, advanced modeling, and econoAuthorsChristopher Huber, James Meldrum, Rudy Schuster, Zachary H. Ancona, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Scott M. Beck, Daren Carlisle, Peter R. Claggett, Fabiano Franco, Heather S. Galbraith, Michelle Haefele, Kristin R Hoelting, Dianna M. Hogan, Kristina G. Hopkins, Tim Kern, Collin B. Lawrence, Stacy Lischka, John B. Loomis, Julie M. Mueller, Gregory B. Noe, Emily J. Pindilli, Brian Quay, Darius J. Semmens, Wilson Sinclair, Daniel E. Spooner, Brian Voigt, Barabara St. John WhiteToward ecosystem accounts for Rwanda: Tracking 25 years of change in potential supply and flows of ecosystem services
1. Rwanda, a small but rapidly developing central African nation, has undertaken development of natural capital accounts to better inform its economic development through the World Bank’s Wealth Accounting and Valuation of Ecosystem Services (WAVES) Partnership. In this paper, we develop ecosystem service (ES) models to quantify the physical supply components of ecosystem accounts in Rwanda from 1AuthorsKenneth J. Bagstad, Jane Carter Ingram, Glenn-Marie Lange, Michel K. Masozera, Zachary H. Ancona, Mediatrice Bana, Desire Kabogo, Bernard Musana, Nsharwasi Leon Nabahungu, Emmanuel Rukundo, Evariste Rutebuka, Stephen Polasky, Denis Rugege, Claudine UweraReview of indicators for comparing environmental effects across energy sources
Robust, quantitative comparisons of environmental effects across energy sources can support development of energy planning strategies that meet growing demand while managing and minimizing undesirable effects on environmental resources. Multicriteria analyses of energy systems often use a suite of indicators to make such comparisons, but those indicators and their units of measure vary among studiAuthorsMonica Dorning, James E. Diffendorfer, Scott R Loss, Kenneth J. BagstadGuidance for assessing interregional ecoystem service flows
Ecosystem services (ES) assessments commonly focus on a specific biophysical region or nation and take its geographic borders as the system boundary. Most geographical regions are, however, not closed systems but are open and telecoupled with other regions through ES imports and exports, which are mediated by fluxes of matter, energy and information. Interregional ES flows are often linked to natiAuthorsThomas Koellner, Aletta Bonn, Sebastian Arnhold, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Dor Friedman, Carlos Guerra, Thomas Kastner, Meidad Kissinger, Janina Kleeman, Christian Kuhlicke, Jianguo Liu, Laura Lopez-Hoffman, Alexandra Marques, Berta Martin-Lopez, Catharina J. E. Schulp, Sarah Wolff, Matthias SchröterReimagining the potential of Earth observations for ecosystem service assessments
The benefits nature provides to people, called ecosystem services, are increasingly recognized and accounted for in assessments of infrastructure development, agricultural management, conservation prioritization, and sustainable sourcing. These assessments are often limited by data, however, a gap with tremendous potential to be filled through Earth observations (EO), which produce a variety of daAuthorsCarlos Ramirez-Reyes, Kate A. Brauman, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, Gillian L. Galford, Susana B. Adamo, Christopher B. Anderson, Clarissa Anderson, Ginger R. H. Allington, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Michael T. Coe, Anna F. Cord, Laura E. Dee, Rachelle K. Gould, Meha Jain, Virginia A. Kowal, Frank E. Muller-Karger, Jessica Norriss, Peter V. Potapov, Jiangxiao Qui, Jesse T. Rieb, Brian E. Robinson, Leah H. Samberg, Nagendra Singh, Sabrina H. Szeto, Brian Voigt, Keri Watson, T. Maxwell WrightEcosystem service flows from a migratory species: Spatial subsidies of the northern pintail
Migratory species provide important benefits to society, but their cross-border conservation poses serious challenges. By quantifying the economic value of ecosystem services (ESs) provided across a species’ range and ecological data on a species’ habitat dependence, we estimate spatial subsidies—how different regions support ESs provided by a species across its range. We illustrate this method foAuthorsKenneth J. Bagstad, Darius J. Semmens, James E. Diffendorfer, Brady J. Mattsson, James A. Dubovsky, Wayne E. Thogmartin, Ruscena Wiederholt, John B. Loomis, Joanna A. Bieri, Christine Sample, Joshua Goldstein, Laura Lopez-HoffmanSocial equity shapes zone-selection: Balancing aquatic biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services delivery in the transboundary Danube River Basin
Freshwater biodiversity is declining, despite national and international efforts to manage and protect freshwater ecosystems. Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has been proposed as an approach that could more efficiently and adaptively balance ecological and societal needs. However, this raises the question of how social and ecological objectives can be included in an integrated management plan. HeAuthorsSami Domisch, Karan Kakouei, Javier Martinez-Lopez, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Ainhoa Magrach, Stefano Balbi, Ferdinando Villa, Andrea Funk, Thomas Hein, Florian Borgwardt, Virgilio Hermoso, Sonja C. Jähnig, Simone D. LanghansMulti-country willingness to pay for transborder migratory species conservation: A case study of Northern Pintails
Using contingent valuation, we estimated willingness to pay (WTP) in Canada, Mexico, and the United States to protect habitat for Northern Pintails (hereafter pintails), a migratory waterfowl species that provides benefits to and requires habitat in the three countries. Our study contributes to research on spatial subsidies by measuring the value of migratory species habitat. While WTP to protectAuthorsMichelle Haefele, John B. Loomis, Aaron M. Lien, James A. Dubovsky, Robert W. Merideth, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Ta-Ken Huang, Brady J. Mattsson, Darius J. Semmens, Wayne E. Thogmartin, Ruscena Wiederholt, James E. Diffendorfer, Laura Lopez-HoffmanThe natural capital accounting opportunity: Let's really do the numbers
The nation’s economic accounts provide objective, regular, and standardized information routinely relied upon by public and private decision makers. But they are incomplete. The U.S. and many other nations currently do not account for the natural capital — such as the wildlife, forests, grasslands, soils, and water bodies—upon which all other economic activity rests. By creating formal natural caAuthorsJames W. Boyd, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Jane Carter Ingram, Carl D. Shapiro, Jeffery Adkins, C. Frank Casey, Clifford S. Duke, Pierre D. Glynn, Erica Goldman, Monica Grasso, Julie L. Hass, Justin A. Johnson, Glenn-Marie Lange, John Matuszak, Ann Miller, Kirsten L. L. Oleson, Stephen M. Posner, Charles Rhodes, Francois Soulard, Michael Vardon, Ferdinando Villa, Brian Voigt, Scott WentlandIdentification of conservation and restoration priority areas in the Danube River based on the multi-functionality of river-floodplain systems
Large river-floodplain systems are hotspots of biodiversity and ecosystem services but are also used for multiple human activities, making them one of the most threatened ecosystems worldwide. There is wide evidence that reconnecting river channels with their floodplains is an effective measure to increase their multi-functionality, i.e., ecological integrity, habitats for multiple species and theAuthorsAndrea Funk, Javier Martinez-Lopez, Florian Borgwardt, Daniel Traunder, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Stefano Balbi, Ainhoa Magrach, Ferdinando Villa, Thomas HeinMachine learning for ecosystem services
Recent developments in machine learning have expanded data-driven modelling (DDM) capabilities, allowing artificial intelligence to infer the behaviour of a system by computing and exploiting correlations between observed variables within it. Machine learning algorithms may enable the use of increasingly available ‘big data’ and assist applying ecosystem service models across scales, analysing andAuthorsSimon Willcock, Javier Martinez-Lopez, Danny A.P. Hooftman, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Stefano Balbi, Alessia Marzo, Carlo Prato, Saverio Sciandrello, Giovanni Signorello, Brian Voigt, Ferdinando Villa, James M. Bullock, Ioannis AthanasiadisNon-USGS Publications**
Bagstad, K.J. and R. Shammin. 2012. Can the Genuine Progress Indicator better inform sustainable regional progress? - A case study for Northeast Ohio. Ecological Indicators 18:330-341.Johnson, G.W., K.J. Bagstad, R. Snapp, and F. Villa. 2012. Service Path Attribution Networks (SPANs): A network flow approach to ecosystem service assessment. International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information Systems 3(2):54-71.Johnson, G.W., R.R. Snapp, F. Villa, and K.J. Bagstad. 2012. Modelling ecosystem service flows under uncertainty with stochastic SPAN. Pp. 1021-1028 in: R. Seppelt, A.A. Voinov, S. Lange, and D. Bankamp, eds., Proceedings of the 2012 International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software. ISBN: 978-88-9035-742-8.Villa, F., K.J. Bagstad, G. Johnson, and B. Voigt. 2011. Scientific instruments for climate change adaptation: Estimating and optimizing the efficiency of ecosystem services provision. Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales 11(1):83-98.Batker, D., de la Torre, I., Costanza, R., Swedeen, P., Day, J., Boumans, R., and Bagstad, K.J. 2010. Gaining ground: Wetlands, hurricanes, and the economy: The value of restoring the Mississippi River Delta. Environmental Law Reporter 40 ELR 11106-11110.Daniels, A.E., Bagstad, K.J., Esposito, V., Moulaert, A., and Manuel Rodriguez, C. 2010. Understanding the impacts of Costa Rica’s PES: Are we asking the right questions?: Ecological Economics 69(11):2116-2126.Stromberg, J.C., K.J. Bagstad, and E. Makings. 2009. Floristic Diversity. In: Ecology and conservation of the San Pedro River. J.C. Stromberg and B. Tellman, eds. University of Arizona Press: Tucson.Bagstad, K.J. and M. Ceroni. 2008. The Genuine Progress Indicator: A new measure of economic development for the Northern Forest. Adirondack Journal of Environmental Studies 15(1):21-29.Bagstad, K.J. and M. Ceroni. 2007. Opportunities and challenges in applying the GPI/ISEW at local scales. International Journal of Environment, Workplace, and Employment 3(2):132-153.Bagstad, K.J., K. Stapleton, and J.R. D’Agostino. 2007. Taxes, subsidies, and insurance as drivers of United States coastal development. Ecological Economics 63:285-298.Bagstad, K.J. 2006. Valuing ecosystem services in the Chicago region. Chicago Wilderness Journal 4(2):18-26.Bagstad, K.J., S.J. Lite, and J.C. Stromberg. 2006. Vegetation and hydro-geomorphology of riparian patch types of a dryland river. Western North American Naturalist 66:23-44.Bagstad, K.J., J.C. Stromberg, and S.J. Lite. 2005. Response of herbaceous riparian plant functional groups to flooding of the San Pedro River, Arizona. Wetlands 25(1):210-223.Lite, S.J., K.J. Bagstad, and J.C. Stromberg. 2005. Riparian plant richness and abundance across gradients of water stress and flood disturbance, San Pedro River, Arizona, USA. Journal of Arid Environments 63(4):785-813.Stromberg, J.C., K.J. Bagstad, E. Makings, S.J. Lite, and J. Leenhouts. 2005. Effect of decline in stream flow duration on channel vegetation of a semi-arid region river (San Pedro River, Arizona). River Research & Application 21(8):925-938.Roberts, B.R., H.F. Decker, K.J. Bagstad, and K.A. Peterson. 2001. Bio-solid residues as soilless media for growing wildflower sod. HortTechnology 11(2):194-199.Bagstad, K.J. and D.M. Johnson. 1999. Taxonomy of Xylopia barbata (Annonaceae) and related species from the Amazon/Orinoco region. Contributions of the University of Michigan Herbarium 22:21-29.Bagstad, K.J., F. Villa, D. Batker, J. Harrison-Cox, B. Voigt, and G. Johnson. 2014. From theoretical to actual ecosystem services: Accounting for beneficiaries and spatial flows in ecosystem service assessments. Ecology and Society 19(2):64.Batker, D., I. de la Torre, R. Costanza, J.W. Day, P. Swedeen, R. Boumans, and K.J. Bagstad. 2014. The threats to the value of ecosystem goods and services of the Mississippi Delta. Pp. 155-173 in: Perspectives on the restoration of the Mississippi Delta: The once and future delta. J. Day, G.P. Kemp, A. Freeman, and D.P. Muth, eds. Springer: New York.**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
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