Kishor Jaiswal
Kishor is a research civil (structural) engineer at U.S. Geological Survey in Golden, Colorado. At USGS, he leads the development of Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system’s earthquake casualty and economic loss estimation models.
As a Chief of Engineering & Risk Project at Geologic Hazards Science Center, Dr. Jaiswal leads the development of earthquake risk related products for buildings and critical infrastructure. Dr. Jaiswal is the Principal Investigator of 2017 FEMA P-366 study that produced annualized earthquake loss estimates for the United States. Dr. Jaiswal has also contributed to the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) development efforts by participating in and contributing to number of GEM’s earthquake risk-related projects. Dr. Jaiswal serves on Editorial Board of Earthquake Spectra Journal and is a licensed Professional Engineer (P.E.) in the state of Colorado. He is a recipient of numerous awards and recognition throughout his career, including 2014 EERI Housner Fellowship, inaugural recipient of 2012 Global Earthquake Model (GEM)’s Outstanding Contribution Award, and the Earthquake Spectra Outstanding Journal Paper Award. Dr. Jaiswal has authored and co-authored more than 150 professional peer reviewed publications that include journal papers, USGS publication series, conference papers, and published abstracts over the last 15 years of his professional career.
Science and Products
Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California
Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview
Seismic Hazard, Risk, and Design for South America
The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications
A methodology to combine shaking and ground failure models for forecasting seismic damage to buried pipeline networks
Earthquake scenarios for Quito, Ecuador; Cali, Colombia; and Santiago De Los Caballeros, Dominican Republic
Hazus Estimated Annualized Earthquake Losses for the United States: FEMA P-366, 2023
Uses of epistemic uncertainties in the USGS National Seismic Hazard Models
Preliminary national-scale seismic risk assessment of natural gas pipelines in the United States
Assessing direct and indirect long-term economic impacts from earthquakes to the U.S. National Bridge Inventory
Earthquake scenario development in the 2023 USGS NSHM update
A theoretical framework for integrating ground failure models into regional seismic performance assessments of buried pipelines
Integrated strategies for enhanced rapid earthquake shaking, ground failure, and impact estimation employing remotely sensed and ground truth constraints
Partitioning ground motion uncertainty when conditioned on station data
Open-source resources help navigate new IM regulations
Science and Products
- Science
Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California
It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS currently lacks an automated system with which to forecast s - Data
Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview
This data release contains data sets associated with the 2023 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model Update. The 2023 50-State National Seimsic Hazard Model (NSHM) Update includes an update to the NSHMs for the conterminous U.S (CONUS, last updated in 2018), Alaska (AK, last updated in 2007), and Hawaii (last updated in 2001). Data sets include inputs like seismicity catalogs used as input to theSeismic Hazard, Risk, and Design for South America
These data were calculated to estimate seismic hazard, risk, and design across South America using the latest data, models, and methods. The input data to the model, as well as the output data are available here. The input data includes a seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and ground-motion models. Output data include h - Multimedia
- Publications
Filter Total Items: 40
The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications
The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public policy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increaseAuthorsMark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Edward H. Field, Morgan P. Moschetti, Kishor Jaiswal, Kevin R. Milner, Sanaz Rezaeian, Arthur Frankel, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Jason M. Altekruse, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Kyle Withers, Charles Mueller, Yuehua Zeng, Robert E. Chase, Leah M. Salditch, Nicolas Luco, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Julie A Herrick, Demi Leafar Girot, Brad T. Aagaard, Adrian Bender, Michael Blanpied, Richard W. Briggs, Oliver S. Boyd, Brandon Clayton, Christopher DuRoss, Eileen L. Evans, Peter J. Haeussler, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Elizabeth H. Hearn, Kaj M. Johnson, Zachary Alan Kortum, N. Simon Kwong, Andrew James Makdisi, Henry (Ben) Mason, Daniel McNamara, Devin McPhillips, P. Okubo, Morgan T. Page, Fred Pollitz, Justin Rubinstein, Bruce E. Shaw, Zheng-Kang Shen, Brian Shiro, James Andrew Smith, William J. Stephenson, Eric M. Thompson, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Erin Wirth, Robert C. WitterA methodology to combine shaking and ground failure models for forecasting seismic damage to buried pipeline networks
How does an earthquake affect buried pipeline networks? It is well known that the seismic performance of buried pipelines depends on ground failures (GFs) as well as strong ground shaking (SGS), but it is unclear how the various types of earthquake hazards should be collectively combined, as existing methodologies tend to examine each of the earthquake hazards separately. In this article, we develAuthorsN. Simon Kwong, Kishor JaiswalEarthquake scenarios for Quito, Ecuador; Cali, Colombia; and Santiago De Los Caballeros, Dominican Republic
Earthquake risk associated with Quito, Ecuador; Cali, Colombia; and Santiago de los Caballeros, Dominican Republic is examined by generating a set of hypothetical earthquake scenarios considering seismic sources, recent seismicity, and major historical earthquakes recorded in the vicinity. In this study, particular focus is given to the development of earthquake scenarios for use in emergency planAuthorsRobert Edward Chase, Kishor Jaiswal, Alejandro Calderon, Hugo Yepes, Loren Goddard, Catalina Yepes-EstradaHazus Estimated Annualized Earthquake Losses for the United States: FEMA P-366, 2023
The National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) Reauthorization Act of 2018 (Pub.L. 115–307) requires that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) “shall support the implementation of a comprehensive earthquake education, outreach, and public awareness program, including development of materials and their wide dissemination to all appropriate audiences and support public access toAuthorsKishor Jaiswal, Jesse Rozelle, Mike Tong, Anne Sheehan, Sean McNabb, Maureen Kelly, Casey Zuzak, Doug Bausch, Jennifer SimsUses of epistemic uncertainties in the USGS National Seismic Hazard Models
The need for US Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) to report estimates of epistemic uncertainties in the hazard (e.g. fractile hazard curves) in all forthcoming releases is increasing. With fractile hazard curves as potential new outputs from the USGS 2023 NSHM, a simultaneous need is to help end-users better understand these epistemic uncertainties and clarify their pAuthorsN. Simon Kwong, Kishor JaiswalPreliminary national-scale seismic risk assessment of natural gas pipelines in the United States
Although the gas pipeline infrastructure in the United States is vulnerable to the seismic hazards of (i) strong ground shaking, and (ii) ground failures induced by surface faulting, liquefaction, or landslides, limited national guidance exists for operators to consistently evaluate the earthquake response of their pipelines. To provide additional information for stakeholders and establish more coAuthorsN. Simon Kwong, Kishor Jaiswal, Nicolas Luco, J. W. Baker, K. A. LudwigAssessing direct and indirect long-term economic impacts from earthquakes to the U.S. National Bridge Inventory
Using the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model and the 2018 National Bridge Inventory, an annualized earthquake loss (AEL) study was conducted for approximately 610,000 bridges in the conterminous United States, quantifying both direct and indirect economic losses. The typical AEL framework has been augmented with new replacement unit cost data and bridge-specific parameters for modifying default frAuthorsKishor Jaiswal, N. Simon Kwong, Doug Bausch, David J. Wald, Kuo-wan Lin, Sharon Yen, Jerry Shen, Jeffrey GerEarthquake scenario development in the 2023 USGS NSHM update
Earthquake scenarios are generally selected to serve a wide variety of local and regional needs ranging from testing a community’s ability to respond to earthquakes to developing proactive targeted mitigation strategies for minimizing impending risk. These deterministic scenarios can also be used to communicate seismic hazard and risk to audiences who are not well versed in more complex methods liAuthorsRobert Edward Chase, Kishor Jaiswal, Mark D. PetersenA theoretical framework for integrating ground failure models into regional seismic performance assessments of buried pipelines
A variety of models exist for characterizing earthquake-induced ground failures, but application of these models towards regional seismic performance assessments of buried pipelines remains challenging. One challenge is that ground failures often occur at localized geospatial scales while buried pipelines are spatially distributed over long distances. In this study, we propose a theoretical framewAuthorsN. Simon Kwong, Kishor JaiswalIntegrated strategies for enhanced rapid earthquake shaking, ground failure, and impact estimation employing remotely sensed and ground truth constraints
Estimating earthquake impacts using physical or empirical models is challenging because the three components of loss estimation-shaking, exposure, and vulnerabilities-entail inherent uncertainties. Loss modeling in near-real-time adds additional uncertainties, yet expectations for actionable information with a reasonable level of confidence in the results are real. The modeling approaches describeAuthorsDavid J. Wald, Susu Xu, H. Noh, J. Dimasaka, Kishor Jaiswal, Kate E. Allstadt, Davis T. EnglerPartitioning ground motion uncertainty when conditioned on station data
Rapid estimation of earthquake ground shaking and proper accounting of associated uncertainties in such estimates when conditioned on strong‐motion station data or macroseismic intensity observations are crucial for downstream applications such as ground failure and loss estimation. The U.S. Geological Survey ShakeMap system is called upon to fulfill this objective in light of increased near‐real‐AuthorsDavis T. Engler, Charles Worden, Eric M. Thompson, Kishor JaiswalOpen-source resources help navigate new IM regulations
The revision of federal safety regulations for integrity management of gas transmission pipelines to require explicit consideration of seismicity increases the importance for operators to be actively identifying high-consequence areas (HCAs), evaluating seismic-related threats, and choosing a risk model to support risk management decisions. To ensure equal access to information by both operators aAuthorsN. Simon Kwong, Kishor Jaiswal, J. W. Baker, Nicolas Luco, K. A. Ludwig, Vasey J. Stephens - News