Kishor Jaiswal
Kishor is a research civil (structural) engineer at U.S. Geological Survey in Golden, Colorado. At USGS, he leads the development of Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system’s earthquake casualty and economic loss estimation models.
As a Chief of Engineering & Risk Project at Geologic Hazards Science Center, Dr. Jaiswal leads the development of earthquake risk related products for buildings and critical infrastructure. Dr. Jaiswal is the Principal Investigator of 2017 FEMA P-366 study that produced annualized earthquake loss estimates for the United States. Dr. Jaiswal has also contributed to the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) development efforts by participating in and contributing to number of GEM’s earthquake risk-related projects. Dr. Jaiswal serves on Editorial Board of Earthquake Spectra Journal and is a licensed Professional Engineer (P.E.) in the state of Colorado. He is a recipient of numerous awards and recognition throughout his career, including 2014 EERI Housner Fellowship, inaugural recipient of 2012 Global Earthquake Model (GEM)’s Outstanding Contribution Award, and the Earthquake Spectra Outstanding Journal Paper Award. Dr. Jaiswal has authored and co-authored more than 150 professional peer reviewed publications that include journal papers, USGS publication series, conference papers, and published abstracts over the last 15 years of his professional career.
Science and Products
Near real-time updating of pager loss estimates
2021 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for the State of Hawaii
Earthquake risk of gas pipelines in the conterminous United States and its sources of uncertainty
An efficient Bayesian framework for updating PAGER loss estimates
The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, why, and how much probabilistic ground motion maps changed
Selecting three components of ground motions from Conditional Spectra for multiple stripe analyses
Assessing the long-term earthquake risk for the US National Bridge Inventory (NBI)
Development of a global seismic risk model
A domestic earthquake impact alert protocol based on the combined USGS PAGER and FEMA Hazus loss estimation systems
An update of USGS bear-real-time earthquake shaking and impact products
The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview of model and implications
Earthquakes, PAGER
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Near real-time updating of pager loss estimates
Initial alerts by PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) within minutes following an earthquake include several uncertainties, mainly due to potential inaccuracies in location, depth, fault delineation, and shaking estimates. We enhance an updating framework by incorporating early reports of fatalities within the first 24 hours, or so, of an earthquake to update PAGER’s overaAuthorsDavis Engler, Kishor Jaiswal, Hae Young Noh, David J. Wald2021 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for the State of Hawaii
The 2021 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the State of Hawaii updates the two-decades-old former model by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the underlying ground shaking forecasts of tectonic-fault, tectonic-flexure, volcanic, and caldera collapse earthquakes. Two earthquake ground shaking hazard models (public policy and research) are produced that differ in hAuthorsMark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Morgan P. Moschetti, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Charles Mueller, Arthur Frankel, Sanaz Rezaeian, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Daniel E. McNamara, P. Okubo, Yuehua Zeng, Kishor Jaiswal, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Jason M. Altekruse, Brian ShiroEarthquake risk of gas pipelines in the conterminous United States and its sources of uncertainty
Relatively little research has been conducted to systematically quantify the nationwide earthquake risk of gas pipelines in the US; simultaneously, national guidance is limited for operators across the country to consistently evaluate the earthquake risk of their assets. Furthermore, many challenges and uncertainties exist in a comprehensive seismic risk assessment of gas pipelines. As a first staAuthorsN. Simon Kwong, Kishor Jaiswal, Jack W. Baker, Nicolas Luco, K. A. Ludwig, Vasey J. StephensAn efficient Bayesian framework for updating PAGER loss estimates
We introduce a Bayesian framework for incorporating time-varying noisy reported data on damage and loss information to update near real-time loss estimates/alerts for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. Initial loss estimation by PAGER immediately following an earthquake includes several uncertainties. Historically, the PAGER’s alertingAuthorsHae Young Noh, Kishor Jaiswal, Davis T. Engler, David J. WaldThe 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, why, and how much probabilistic ground motion maps changed
The 2018 US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) incorporates new data and updated science to improve the underlying earthquake and ground motion forecasts for the conterminous United States. The NSHM considers many new data and component input models: (1) new earthquakes between 2013 and 2017 and updated earthquake magnitudes for some earlier earthquakes; (2) two updated smootheAuthorsMark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Charles S Mueller, Morgan P. Moschetti, Arthur Frankel, Sanaz Rezaeian, Daniel McNamara, Nicolas Luco, Oliver S. Boyd, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Kishor Jaiswal, Eric M. Thompson, Susan M. Hoover, Brandon Clayton, Edward H. Field, Yuehua ZengSelecting three components of ground motions from Conditional Spectra for multiple stripe analyses
For complex structures where the seismic response depends appreciably on the vertical (V) component of ground motion (GM) (e.g., base-isolated buildings, long-span bridges, dams, nuclear power plants), incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is commonly utilized to estimate seismic risk, where the V components of GM are selected and scaled based on the corresponding horizontal (H) components. The resulAuthorsN. Simon Kwong, Kishor Jaiswal, Nicolas Luco, J. W. BakerAssessing the long-term earthquake risk for the US National Bridge Inventory (NBI)
We estimate annualized earthquake loss associated with over 600,000 bridges located throughout the contiguous United States. Each year, the Federal Highway Administration, in partnership with State Departments of Transportation, undertake a massive exercise to update the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) by combining data from states, federal agencies, local jurisdictions, and tribal governments. ThAuthorsKishor Jaiswal, N. Simon Kwong, S. S. Yen, D. Bausch, Kuo-wan Lin, Nicolas Luco, David J. Wald, J. RozelleDevelopment of a global seismic risk model
Since 2015 the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and its partners have been supporting regional programmes and bilateral collaborations to develop an open global earthquake risk model. These efforts led to the development of a repository of probabilistic seismic hazard models, a global exposure dataset comprising structural and occupancy information regarding the residential, commercial andAuthorsVitor Silva, Desmond Amo-Oduro, Alejandro Calderon, Catarina Costa, Jamal Dabbeek, Venetia Despotaki, Luis Martins, Marco Pagani, Anirudh Rao, Michele Simionato, Daniele Viganò, Catalina Yepes-Estrada, Ana Beatriz Acevedo, Helen Crowley, Nick Horspool, Kishor Jaiswal, Murray Journeay, Massimiliano PittoreA domestic earthquake impact alert protocol based on the combined USGS PAGER and FEMA Hazus loss estimation systems
The U.S. Geological Survey’s PAGER alert system provides rapid (10-20 min) but general loss estimates of ranges of fatalities and economic impact for significant global earthquakes. FEMA’s Hazus software, in contrast, provides time consuming (2-5 hours) but more detailed loss information quantified in terms of structural, social, and economic consequences estimated at a much higher spatial resolutAuthorsDavid J. Wald, Hope A. Seligson, Jesse Rozelle, Jordan Burns, Kristin Marano, Kishor Jaiswal, Mike Hearne, Douglas BauschAn update of USGS bear-real-time earthquake shaking and impact products
We report on advancements in both hazard and consequence modeling that form the core of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) strategy to improve rapid earthquake shaking and loss estimates. Whereas our primary goal is to improve our operational capabilities of the USGS National Earthquake Information Center, the science, software, and datasets behind these systems continue to advance uses and studAuthorsDavid J. Wald, Kishor Jaiswal, Kristin Marano, Mike Hearne, Kuo-wan Lin, Daniel Slosky, Kate E. Allstadt, Eric M. Thompson, Charles Worden, Gavin P. Hayes, Vince QuitorianoThe 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview of model and implications
During 2017–2018, the National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated as follows: (1) an updated seismicity catalog was incorporated, which includes new earthquakes that occurred from 2013 to 2017; (2) in the central and eastern United States (CEUS), new ground motion models were updated that incorporate updated median estimates, modified assessments of the associatedAuthorsMark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Charles Mueller, Morgan P. Moschetti, Arthur Frankel, Sanaz Rezaeian, Daniel E. McNamara, Nicolas Luco, Oliver S. Boyd, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Kishor Jaiswal, Eric M. Thompson, Susan M. Hoover, Brandon Clayton, Edward H. Field, Yuehua ZengEarthquakes, PAGER
PAGER, short for Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response, is an automated system developed and run by the US Geological Survey (USGS) that produces information concerning the impact of significant earthquakes around the world within approximately 20 min of any magnitude 5.5 or larger event. PAGER rapidly assesses earthquake impacts by combining populations exposed to estimates of shakAuthorsDavid J. Wald, Kishor Jaiswal, Kristin Marano, Mike Hearne - News