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Li Erikson

Research Oceanographer at the USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Science and Products

Filter Total Items: 19
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Web browser screen showing an application with different parameters and controls on left and the resulting map on right.

CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)

Our Coast Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms in the San Francisco Bay region.
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Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
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CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)

Our Coast Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms in the San Francisco Bay region.
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A man stands smiling on a high coastal bluff near solar panels and a pole supported by guy wires, with a camera mounted on top.

Climate impacts to Arctic coasts, recent activities

USGS activities related to the project, "Climate Impacts to Arctic Coasts."
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Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
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Climate impacts to Arctic coasts, recent activities

USGS activities related to the project, "Climate Impacts to Arctic Coasts."
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Animation shows map of land and sea, land doesn't change and the ocean and bay change colors according to tidal height.

San Francisco Bay Basic Tide Model

This web page provides files that may be used to run a basic depth-averaged (2DH) Deltares Delft3D version 4.00.01 astronomic tide model for San Francisco Bay. It was developed with the primary aim of assessing water level fluctuations and flow conditions in the vicinity of the Golden Gate (Elias and Hansen 2013).
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
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San Francisco Bay Basic Tide Model

This web page provides files that may be used to run a basic depth-averaged (2DH) Deltares Delft3D version 4.00.01 astronomic tide model for San Francisco Bay. It was developed with the primary aim of assessing water level fluctuations and flow conditions in the vicinity of the Golden Gate (Elias and Hansen 2013).
Learn More
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A man stands smiling on a high coastal bluff near solar panels and a pole supported by guy wires, with a camera mounted on top.

Using Video Imagery to Study Coastal Change: Barter Island, Alaska

For a short study period, two video cameras overlooked the coast from atop the coastal bluff of Barter Island in northern Alaska. The purpose was to observe and quantify coastal processes such as wave run-up, development of rip channels, bluff erosion, and movement of sandbars and ice floes.
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
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Using Video Imagery to Study Coastal Change: Barter Island, Alaska

For a short study period, two video cameras overlooked the coast from atop the coastal bluff of Barter Island in northern Alaska. The purpose was to observe and quantify coastal processes such as wave run-up, development of rip channels, bluff erosion, and movement of sandbars and ice floes.
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Map shows the outline of a coastal area with a large bay inlet with two oval study areas demarcated in the north and south bay.

Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay

The San Francisco Bay Coastal Flood Forecast pilot project is an operational CoSMoS model, part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL).
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Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
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Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay

The San Francisco Bay Coastal Flood Forecast pilot project is an operational CoSMoS model, part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL).
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Graphic of waves breaking at the ocean surface with lettering below it for the coastal storm modeling system.

PS-CoSMoS FAQs

Puget Sound - Coastal Storm Modeling System (PS-CoSMoS) frequently asked questions

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PS-CoSMoS FAQs

Puget Sound - Coastal Storm Modeling System (PS-CoSMoS) frequently asked questions

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Map of a coastal city with a harbor with colored areas drawn on top to show potential flooding extent under different scenarios.

CoSMoS 1.0: Southern California

CoSMoS was initially developed and tested for the Southern California coast in collaboration with Deltares. CoSMoS has been used to assess coastal vulnerability within Southern California for the ARkStorm scenario, the January 2010 El Niño and Sea-Level Rise scenarios, and the January 2005 Newport Harbor Flood scenario.
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Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
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CoSMoS 1.0: Southern California

CoSMoS was initially developed and tested for the Southern California coast in collaboration with Deltares. CoSMoS has been used to assess coastal vulnerability within Southern California for the ARkStorm scenario, the January 2010 El Niño and Sea-Level Rise scenarios, and the January 2005 Newport Harbor Flood scenario.
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Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Southern California, v3.0, Phase 2

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level-rise scenarios, as well as long-term shoreline change and cliff retreat. Resulting projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) provide emergency responders a
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Natural Hazards, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Near-surface wind fields for San Francisco Bay--historical and 21st-century projected time series

To support Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) in the San Francisco Bay (v2.1), time series of historical and 21st-century near-surface wind fields (eastward and northward wind arrays) were simulated throughout the Bay. While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave m
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Natural Hazards, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Nearshore waves in southern California: hindcast, and modeled historical and 21st-century projected time series

As part of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS), time series of hindcast, historical, and 21st-century nearshore wave parameters (wave height, period, and direction) were simulated for the southern California coast from Point Conception to the Mexican border. The hindcast (1980-2010) time series represents reanalysis-forced offshore waves propagated to the nearshore, whereas the historical (
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Natural Hazards, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Wave projections for United States mainland coasts

Coastal managers and ocean engineers rely heavily on projected average and extreme wave conditions for planning and design purposes, but when working on a local or regional scale, are faced with much uncertainty as changes in the global climate impart spatially-varying trends. Future storm conditions are likely to evolve in a fashion that is unlike past conditions and is ultimately dependent on th
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Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Wave and Orbital Velocity Model Data for the California Continental Shelf

The oceanographic processes that disturb the continental shelf include the actions of surface waves, internal waves, and currents (tidal, density, wave-driven, wind-driven, and geostrophic). Because the North Pacific Ocean can generate extremely large surface waves that yield relatively high near-bed wave orbital velocities, wave-generated near-bed currents are often considered to be the dominant
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Natural Hazards, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
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Drivers of extreme water levels in a large, urban, high-energy coastal estuary – A case study of the San Francisco Bay

Reliable and long-term hindcast data of water levels are essential in quantifying return period and values of extreme water levels. In order to inform design decisions on a local flood control district level, process-based numerical modeling has proven an essential tool to provide the needed temporal and spatial coverage for different extreme value analysis methods. To determine the importance of
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Natural Hazards, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems

As the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the
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Natural Hazards, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Global-scale changes to extreme ocean wave events due to anthropogenic warming

Extreme surface ocean waves are often primary drivers of coastal flooding and erosion over various time scales. Hence, understanding future changes in extreme wave events owing to global warming is of socio-economic and environmental significance. However, our current knowledge of potential changes in high-frequency (defined here as having return periods of less than 1 year) extreme wave events ar
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Natural Hazards, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Assessment of flood forecast products for a coupled tributary-Coastal model

Compound flooding, resulting from a combination of riverine and coastal processes, is a complex but important hazard to resolve along urbanized shorelines in the vicinity of river mouths. However, inland flooding models rarely consider oceanographic conditions, and vice versa for coastal flood models. Here, we describe the development of an operational, integrated coastal-watershed flooding model
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Water Resources, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, New York Water Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

USGS permafrost research determines the risks of permafrost thaw to biologic and hydrologic resources

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with university, Federal, Tribal, and independent partners, conducts fundamental research on the distribution, vulnerability, and importance of permafrost in arctic and boreal ecosystems. Scientists, land managers, and policy makers use USGS data to help make decisions for development, wildlife habitat, and other needs. Native villages and cities
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Natural Hazards, Water Resources, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Climate Research and Development Program, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Land Change Science Program, Volcano Hazards, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Geology, Geophysics, and Geochemistry Science Center, Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Volcano Science Center

Changing storm conditions in response to projected 21st century climate change and the potential impact on an arctic barrier island–lagoon system—A pilot study for Arey Island and Lagoon, eastern Arctic Alaska

Executive SummaryArey Lagoon, located in eastern Arctic Alaska, supports a highly productive ecosystem, where soft substrate and coastal wet sedge fringing the shores are feeding grounds and nurseries for a variety of marine fish and waterfowl. The lagoon is partially protected from the direct onslaught of Arctic Ocean waves by a barrier island chain (Arey Island) which in itself provides importan
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Ecosystems, Natural Hazards, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Alaska Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Impacts of sea-level rise on the tidal reach of California coastal rivers using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

In coastal rivers, the interactions between tides and fluvial discharge affect local ecology, sedimentation, river dynamics, river mouth configuration, and the flooding potential in adjacent wetlands and low-lying areas. With sea-level rise, the tidal reach within coastal rivers can expand upstream, impacting river dynamics and increasing flood risk across a much greater area. Rivers along the Pac
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Natural Hazards, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Modeling sediment bypassing around idealized rocky headlands

Alongshore sediment bypassing rocky headlands remains understudied despite the importance of characterizing littoral processes for erosion abatement, beach management, and climate change adaptation. To address this gap, a numerical model sediment transport study was developed to identify controlling factors and mechanisms for sediment headland bypassing potential. Four idealized headlands were des
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Natural Hazards, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Toward a national coastal hazard forecast of total water levels

Storm surge and large waves combine to erode beaches, cause marsh and coral decay, and inundate low-elevation areas, resulting in hazards to coastal communities and loss of natural resources. The USGS, in collaboration with NOAA, is developing a real-time system to provide ∼ 6-day forecasts of total water levels (TWLs) combining tides, storm surge, and wave runup. TWL is compared with dune elevati
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Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

Assessing patterns of annual change to permafrost bluffs along the North Slope coast of Alaska using high-resolution imagery and elevation models

Coastal permafrost bluffs at Barter Island, on the North Slope, Beaufort Sea Coast of Alaska are among the most rapidly eroding along Alaska’s coast, having retreated up to 132 m between 1955 and 2015. Here we quantify rates and patterns of change over a single year using very-high resolution orthophotomosaics and co-registered surface elevation models derived from a survey-grade form of structure

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Natural Hazards, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change

Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and have not comp
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Natural Hazards, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Towards determining spatial methane distribution on Arctic permafrost bluffs with an unmanned aerial system

Arctic permafrost stores vast amounts of methane (CH4) in subsurface reservoirs. Thawing permafrost creates areas for this potent greenhouse gas to be released to the atmosphere. Identifying ‘hot spots’ of methane flux on a local scale has been limited by the spatial scales of traditional ground-based or satellite-based methane-sampling methods. Here we present a reliable and an easily replicable
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Natural Hazards, Climate Research and Development Program, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Science and Products