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Lucas Berio Fortini

Specialty: Quantitative methods, including simulation modeling, to make conservation and management efforts more science-based. Expertise in population and community ecology modeling and analyses. Interdisciplinary training and experience in forest mensuration, plant ecophysiology, remote sensing, GIS and natural resource economics, among others. 

Research Interests: Applied conservation research focused on decision support. Research focused on how the response of populations and communities to natural and human-made disturbance determine ecological resilience and shape opportunities for conservation and management. Determining impacts of climate change on Pacific Island ecosystems and their interactions with current serious threats of invasives, land cover change, and fire.

Personal Interests: biking, hiking, playing music, drones.

Education and Certifications

  • Ph.D. 2010 Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL

  • B.S. 2001 Resource Management (Forest Ecology concentration) University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA

  • A.A. 1999 Environmental Studies, Moorpark College, Moorpark, CA

Science and Products

Filter Total Items: 17
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Water flowing in the Wailuku River in Hawai'i

Changes in Water Flow through Hawaiian Forests due to Invasive Species and Changing Rainfall Patterns

Precipitation in Hawaiʻi’s higher elevation upland areas provides needed water to both people and ecosystems. Once it reaches the ground, rain can either run off and contribute to water flow in streams, or it can infiltrate into the ground and provide water for plants and recharge aquifers and groundwater. The exact route that water takes is controlled by many factors, including the duration and i...
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Climate Adaptation Science Centers
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Changes in Water Flow through Hawaiian Forests due to Invasive Species and Changing Rainfall Patterns

Precipitation in Hawaiʻi’s higher elevation upland areas provides needed water to both people and ecosystems. Once it reaches the ground, rain can either run off and contribute to water flow in streams, or it can infiltrate into the ground and provide water for plants and recharge aquifers and groundwater. The exact route that water takes is controlled by many factors, including the duration and i...
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Image: Haleakala National Park

Effects of Drought on Soil Moisture and Water Resources in Hawai‘i

Droughts in the Hawaiian Islands can enhance wildfire risk, diminish freshwater resources, and devastate threatened and endangered species on land and in nearshore ecosystems. During periods of drought, cloud-water interception, or fog drip (the process by which water droplets accumulate on the leaves and branches of plants and then drip to the ground) in Hawai‘i’s rain forests may play an importa...
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Climate Adaptation Science Centers
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Effects of Drought on Soil Moisture and Water Resources in Hawai‘i

Droughts in the Hawaiian Islands can enhance wildfire risk, diminish freshwater resources, and devastate threatened and endangered species on land and in nearshore ecosystems. During periods of drought, cloud-water interception, or fog drip (the process by which water droplets accumulate on the leaves and branches of plants and then drip to the ground) in Hawai‘i’s rain forests may play an importa...
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Cliffs meet the ocean in the North Kohala District of Hawaii

Influences of Climate Change, Climate Variability, and Drought on Human Communities and Ecosystems in Hawaiʻi

Over the past century, Hawaiʻi has experienced a pronounced decline in precipitation and stream flow and a number of severe droughts. These changes can have wide-reaching implications, affecting the water supply, native vegetation and wildlife, wildfire patterns, and the spread of invasive species. Several climate-related factors are influencing Hawaiˈi’s landscapes and contributing to these chang...
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Climate Adaptation Science Centers
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Influences of Climate Change, Climate Variability, and Drought on Human Communities and Ecosystems in Hawaiʻi

Over the past century, Hawaiʻi has experienced a pronounced decline in precipitation and stream flow and a number of severe droughts. These changes can have wide-reaching implications, affecting the water supply, native vegetation and wildlife, wildfire patterns, and the spread of invasive species. Several climate-related factors are influencing Hawaiˈi’s landscapes and contributing to these chang...
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Rocky coastline with rocky island on a sunny day.

Assessing the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park

Climate change in Hawaiʻi is expected to result in increasing temperatures and varying precipitation through the twenty-first century. Already, high elevation areas have experienced rapidly increasing temperatures and there has been an increase in the frequency of drought across the Islands. These climatic changes could have significant impacts on Hawaiʻi’s plants and animals. Changes in temperatu...
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Climate Adaptation Science Centers
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Assessing the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park

Climate change in Hawaiʻi is expected to result in increasing temperatures and varying precipitation through the twenty-first century. Already, high elevation areas have experienced rapidly increasing temperatures and there has been an increase in the frequency of drought across the Islands. These climatic changes could have significant impacts on Hawaiʻi’s plants and animals. Changes in temperatu...
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Ilima and Hinahina at Kaena Point on Oahu Island, Hawaii

Establishing Climate Change Vulnerability Rankings for Hawaiian Native Plants

Hawaiʻi is considered a worldwide biodiversity hotspot, with nearly 90 percent of its native plants found nowhere else in the world. However, about half of these native plants are imperiled by threats including human development, non-native species, and climate change. Through this project, scientists modeled the relative vulnerability of over 1,000 native plant species to the effects of climate c...
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Climate Adaptation Science Centers
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Establishing Climate Change Vulnerability Rankings for Hawaiian Native Plants

Hawaiʻi is considered a worldwide biodiversity hotspot, with nearly 90 percent of its native plants found nowhere else in the world. However, about half of these native plants are imperiled by threats including human development, non-native species, and climate change. Through this project, scientists modeled the relative vulnerability of over 1,000 native plant species to the effects of climate c...
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Filter Total Items: 27

Identifying opportunities for long-lasting habitat conservation and restoration in Hawaii’s shifting climate

Conservation efforts in isolated archipelagos such as Hawaii often focus on habitat-based conservation and restoration efforts that benefit multiple species. Unfortunately, identifying locations where such efforts are safer from climatic shifts is still challenging. We aimed to provide a method to approximate these potential habitat shifts for similar data- and research-limited contexts. We modele
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center

Floristic and climatic reconstructions of two Lower Cretaceous successions from Peru

Climate during the Early Cretaceous in tropical South America has often been reconstructed as arid. However, some areas seem to have been humid. We reconstructed the floristic composition of two tropical stratigraphic successions in Peru using quantitative palynology (rarefied species richness and abundance), and used the abundance of aridity vs. humidity indicator species to infer the predominant
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center

Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation-management strategies in Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park

Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Land managers and other responsible agencies will need to know how plant-species habitats will change over the next century in order to manage these resources effectively. This issue is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO), where curre
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Climate Adaptation Science Centers

Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation management in Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park

Climate change will likely alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in Hawai`i. This is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park where intensely managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs), focal sites for managing rare and endangered plants, may no longer provide suitable habitat under future climate. Expanding invasive species’ distributions
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center

Assessing the potential of translocating vulnerable forest birds by searching for novel and enduring climatic ranges

Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original >40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and pro- ject complete climate-based range losses for the critically endangered Kaua’i endemics ‘akeke’e (Loxops caeruleirostris) and ‘akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) by end-of-century due to projected warming. Climate change facilitates the upwa
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center

At a global scale, do climate change threatened species also face a greater number of non-climatic threats?

For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center

Beyond exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity: A response based ecological framework to assess species climate change vulnerability

As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informing climate adaptation efforts. VAs commonly integr
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center

Baseline and projected future carbon storage and carbon fluxes in ecosystems of Hawai‘i

This assessment was conducted to fulfill the requirements of section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 and to improve understanding of factors influencing carbon balance in ecosystems of Hawai‘i. Ecosystem carbon storage, carbon fluxes, and carbon balance were examined for major terrestrial ecosystems on the seven main Hawaiian islands in two time periods: baseline (from 2007
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Core Science Systems Mission Area, Land Change Science Program, Western Geographic Science Center, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center

Large-scale range collapse of Hawaiian forest birds under climate change and the need 21st century conservation options

Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation bio
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center

Modeling the complex impacts of timber harvests to find optimal management regimes for Amazon tidal floodplain forests

At the Amazon estuary, the oldest logging frontier in the Amazon, no studies have comprehensively explored the potential long-term population and yield consequences of multiple timber harvests over time. Matrix population modeling is one way to simulate long-term impacts of tree harvests, but this approach has often ignored common impacts of tree harvests including incidental damage, changes in po
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center

The economic viability of smallholder timber production under expanding açaí palm production in the Amazon Estuary

Relatively little attention has been paid to the economic potentials and limitations of tropical timber production and management at smallholder scales, with the most relevant research focusing on community forestry efforts. As a rare tropical example of long-lasting small-scale timber production, in this study we explore the economics of smallholder vertically integrated timber use to better unde

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Ecosystems Mission Area, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center

Trends in conservation research and management in Hawai‘i over the past 20 years

Hawaiʻi, an archipelago of the most isolated inhabited islands on the planet, faces unique and extreme challenges to its biodiversity. We examined how the conservation community has responded to these challenges and how the responses have changed over time, using twenty years of abstracts from the Hawaiʻi Conservation Conference, a yearly gathering of the majority of scientists, managers and the p
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center

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