Specialty: Quantitative methods, including simulation modeling, to make conservation and management efforts more science-based. Expertise in population and community ecology modeling and analyses. Interdisciplinary training and experience in forest mensuration, plant ecophysiology, remote sensing, GIS and natural resource economics, among others.
Research Interests: Applied conservation research focused on decision support. Research focused on how the response of populations and communities to natural and human-made disturbance determine ecological resilience and shape opportunities for conservation and management. Determining impacts of climate change on Pacific Island ecosystems and their interactions with current serious threats of invasives, land cover change, and fire.
Personal Interests: biking, hiking, playing music, drones.
Education and Certifications
Ph.D. 2010 Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL
B.S. 2001 Resource Management (Forest Ecology concentration) University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA
A.A. 1999 Environmental Studies, Moorpark College, Moorpark, CA
Science and Products
Complex demographic responses to contrasting climate drivers lead to divergent population trends across the range of a threatened alpine plant
Hawai‘i forest review: Synthesizing the ecology, evolution, and conservation of a model system
Perceived barriers to the use of assisted colonization for climate sensitive species in the Hawaiian Islands
Landscape level effects of invasive plants and animals on water infiltration through Hawaiian tropical forests
Cloud water interception in Hawai‘i: Developing capacity to characterize the spatial patterns and effects on water and ecological processes responses in Hawai‘i
Habitat suitability and ecological associations of two non-native ungulate species on the Hawaiian island of Lanai
Local to landscape-level controls of water fluxes through Hawaiian forests: Effects of invasive animals and plants on soil infiltration capacity across substrate and moisture gradients
Fostering real-time climate adaptation: Analyzing past, current, and forecast temperature to understand the dynamic risk to Hawaiian honeycreepers from avian malaria
The evolving threat of rapid Ohia death (ROD) to Hawaii’s native ecosystems and rare plant species
Identifying opportunities for long-lasting habitat conservation and restoration in Hawaii’s shifting climate
Floristic and climatic reconstructions of two Lower Cretaceous successions from Peru
Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation-management strategies in Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park
Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Spread of Fire-Promoting Plants in Hawai‘i: Assessing Emerging Threats to Rare Native Plants and Ecosystems
Using Plant Physiologic Responses to Environmental Conditions to Improve Species and Habitat Management in Hawaii
Global Climate Change Impacts on Plants of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park
Climate and Management Effects on Soil Infiltration and Runoff in Hawaiian Forests
Support to the Pacific Islands LCC
Expanding a Dynamic Model of Species Vulnerability to Climate Change for Hawai‘i and Other Pacific Island Ecosystems
Identifying the Risk of Runoff and Erosion in Hawaiʻi’s National Parks
Managing Non-native Game Mammals to Reduce Future Conflicts with Native Plant Conservation in Hawai‘i
Changes in Water Flow through Hawaiian Forests due to Invasive Species and Changing Rainfall Patterns
Effects of Drought on Soil Moisture and Water Resources in Hawai‘i
Influences of Climate Change, Climate Variability, and Drought on Human Communities and Ecosystems in Hawaiʻi
Assessing the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park
Nakula, Maui environmental controls on plant growth and seedling recruitment in a cloud-affected restoration site, 2016-2019
Lanai Island Spatial Prioritization of Native Plant Habitat and Hunting Areas, 2021
Lanai habitat and ecological associations of two non-native ungulate species 2011
Hawaiian Islands datasets quantifying the effects of invasive animals and plants on native forests across the archipelago 2019
Hawaii Island, modelled density of malaria-resistant and -susceptible Iiwi following release of malaria-resistant birds under three climate change projections, 2030-2100
Hawaii Land Cover and Habitat Status
Avian Malaria Warning System
Data for this warning system is a compilation of NOAA NCDC Global Historical Climatology Network data, Dark Sky API 2-week forecast data, and calculated historical annual climatic averages based on the NOAA NCDC data. All data has been statistically adjusted for each individual site location based on collected site data.
Science and Products
- Publications
Filter Total Items: 24
Complex demographic responses to contrasting climate drivers lead to divergent population trends across the range of a threatened alpine plant
Alpine plants are likely to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their restricted distributions and sensitivity to rapid environmental shifts occurring in high-elevation ecosystems. The well-studied Haleakalā silversword (‘āhinahina, Argyroxiphium sandwicense subsp. macrocephalum) already exhibits substantial climate-associated population decline, and offers the opportunity to uHawai‘i forest review: Synthesizing the ecology, evolution, and conservation of a model system
As the most remote archipelago in the world, the Hawaiian Islands are home to a highly endemic and disharmonic biota that has fascinated biologists for centuries. Forests are the dominant terrestrial biome in Hawai‘i, spanning complex, heterogeneous climates across substrates that vary tremendously in age, soil structure, and nutrient availability. Species richness is low in Hawaiian forests compaPerceived barriers to the use of assisted colonization for climate sensitive species in the Hawaiian Islands
Conservation actions to safeguard climate change vulnerable species may not be utilized due to a variety of perceived barriers. Assisted colonization, the intentional movement and release of an organism outside its historical range, is one tool available for species predicted to lose habitat under future climate change scenarios, particularly for single island or single mountain range endemic specLandscape level effects of invasive plants and animals on water infiltration through Hawaiian tropical forests
Watershed degradation due to invasion threatens downstream water flows and associated ecosystem services. While this topic has been studied across landscapes that have undergone invasive-driven state changes (e.g., native forest to invaded grassland), it is less well understood in ecosystems experiencing within-system invasion (e.g. native forest to invaded forest). To address this subject, we conCloud water interception in Hawai‘i: Developing capacity to characterize the spatial patterns and effects on water and ecological processes responses in Hawai‘i
Cloud-water interception (CWI) is the process by which fog or cloud water droplets are captured and accumulate on the leaves and branches of plants, some of which drips to the ground. Prior studies in Hawai'i indicate that CWI is highly variable and can contribute substantially to total precipitation. In this study, we monitored CWI and other processes at five mountain field sites on the Islands oHabitat suitability and ecological associations of two non-native ungulate species on the Hawaiian island of Lanai
The ability to effectively manage game species for specific conservation objectives is often limited by the scientific understanding of their distribution and abundance. This is especially true in Hawai‘i where introduced game mammals are poorly studied and have low value relative to native species in other states. We modeled the habitat suitability and ecological associations of European mouflonLocal to landscape-level controls of water fluxes through Hawaiian forests: Effects of invasive animals and plants on soil infiltration capacity across substrate and moisture gradients
Given the potential effect of invasive plants and animals to water fluxes through forests, the invasive-driven degradation of native ecosystems is a topic of great concern for many downstream land and water managers. The infiltration rate determines the partitioning between runoff and infiltration into soil in Hawaiian forests and beyond. Thus, to explore the ecohydrological effects of plant and aFostering real-time climate adaptation: Analyzing past, current, and forecast temperature to understand the dynamic risk to Hawaiian honeycreepers from avian malaria
Various vector control options are increasingly being considered to safeguard forest birds in their natural habitats from avian malaria transmission. However, vector control options require localized deployment that is not logistically, ethically, ecologically, nor economically viable everywhere and all the time. Based on thermal tolerances of the sporogonic stages of avian malaria (Plasmodium relThe evolving threat of rapid Ohia death (ROD) to Hawaii’s native ecosystems and rare plant species
Hawai‘i’s most widespread native tree, ‘ōhi‘a lehua (Metrosideros polymorpha), has been dying across large areas of Hawai‘i Island mainly due to two fungal pathogens (Ceratocystis lukuohia and Ceratocystis huliohia) that cause a disease collectively known as Rapid ‘Ōhi‘a Death (ROD). Here we examine patterns of positive detections of C. lukuohia as it has been linked to the larger mortality eventsIdentifying opportunities for long-lasting habitat conservation and restoration in Hawaii’s shifting climate
Conservation efforts in isolated archipelagos such as Hawaii often focus on habitat-based conservation and restoration efforts that benefit multiple species. Unfortunately, identifying locations where such efforts are safer from climatic shifts is still challenging. We aimed to provide a method to approximate these potential habitat shifts for similar data- and research-limited contexts. We modeleFloristic and climatic reconstructions of two Lower Cretaceous successions from Peru
Climate during the Early Cretaceous in tropical South America has often been reconstructed as arid. However, some areas seem to have been humid. We reconstructed the floristic composition of two tropical stratigraphic successions in Peru using quantitative palynology (rarefied species richness and abundance), and used the abundance of aridity vs. humidity indicator species to infer the predominantPotential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation-management strategies in Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park
Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Land managers and other responsible agencies will need to know how plant-species habitats will change over the next century in order to manage these resources effectively. This issue is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO), where curre - Science
Filter Total Items: 13
Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Spread of Fire-Promoting Plants in Hawai‘i: Assessing Emerging Threats to Rare Native Plants and Ecosystems
2018 was a record-breaking year for wildfires in Hawai‘i with over 30,000 acres burned statewide, including the habitat of the Oʻahu chewstick, a critically endangered flowering plant with less than 50 individuals remaining. The frequency and severity of wildfire in Hawai‘i has been increasing, and this trend is predicted to worsen with climate change. Wildfires are promoted by highly flammable in...Using Plant Physiologic Responses to Environmental Conditions to Improve Species and Habitat Management in Hawaii
Recent studies show that past and ongoing environmental changes have been substantial and have likely already affected conservation efforts in Hawai‘i. Much of the state has experienced substantial drying, including decreases in mean annual precipitation since the 1920s, longer rainless periods, and decreasing stream flow. Temperatures have been increasing in Hawai‘i for the last 40 years...Global Climate Change Impacts on Plants of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park
Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Warming temperatures and altered precipitation patterns both impact ecological systems, but managing these impacts is difficult without detailed information on the magnitude and timing of these climate-related changes.Climate and Management Effects on Soil Infiltration and Runoff in Hawaiian Forests
Hawai‘i's precipitation is greatest in upland areas that are typically forested. This precipitation provides water for both people and ecosystems. Precipitation can either run off and contribute to streamflow, or infiltrate into the ground and provide water for plants, base flow to streams, or recharge to aquifers. The exact routing that water takes is controlled by many factors, including the...Support to the Pacific Islands LCC
Within a context of human-mediated land cover change, invasive competitors, predators and disease, conservation biologists and practitioners are now concerned that climate change will further impact the beleaguered flora and fauna of the Pacific Islands. Across the region and elsewhere, to determine these potential impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research efforts have focused...Expanding a Dynamic Model of Species Vulnerability to Climate Change for Hawai‘i and Other Pacific Island Ecosystems
Initial studies suggest terrestrial Hawaiian plant species may be vulnerable to climate change. However, these models lack information on species-specific traits that affect ecological and evolutionary responses of species to climate change. Research is needed to refine current vulnerability models and apply these to Pacific Islands outside Hawai‘i.Identifying the Risk of Runoff and Erosion in Hawaiʻi’s National Parks
Haleakalā National Park (HNP) and the surrounding landscape spans many different land cover types, some of which are undergoing vegetation changes that can reduce the amount of water that infiltrates into soil. Decreased soil infiltration can lead to the erosion of terrestrial habitats, increases in the amount of sediment entering aquatic habitats, and flooding of downstream areas as runoff increManaging Non-native Game Mammals to Reduce Future Conflicts with Native Plant Conservation in Hawai‘i
Landscape-scale conservation of threatened and endangered species is often challenged by multiple, sometimes conflicting, land uses. In Hawaiʻi, efforts to conserve native forests have come into conflict with objectives to sustain non-native game mammals, such as feral pigs, goats, and deer, for subsistence and sport hunting. Maintaining stable or increasing game populations represents one of theChanges in Water Flow through Hawaiian Forests due to Invasive Species and Changing Rainfall Patterns
Precipitation in Hawaiʻi’s higher elevation upland areas provides needed water to both people and ecosystems. Once it reaches the ground, rain can either run off and contribute to water flow in streams, or it can infiltrate into the ground and provide water for plants and recharge aquifers and groundwater. The exact route that water takes is controlled by many factors, including the duration and i...Effects of Drought on Soil Moisture and Water Resources in Hawai‘i
Droughts in the Hawaiian Islands can enhance wildfire risk, diminish freshwater resources, and devastate threatened and endangered species on land and in nearshore ecosystems. During periods of drought, cloud-water interception, or fog drip (the process by which water droplets accumulate on the leaves and branches of plants and then drip to the ground) in Hawai‘i’s rain forests may play an importa...Influences of Climate Change, Climate Variability, and Drought on Human Communities and Ecosystems in Hawaiʻi
Over the past century, Hawaiʻi has experienced a pronounced decline in precipitation and stream flow and a number of severe droughts. These changes can have wide-reaching implications, affecting the water supply, native vegetation and wildlife, wildfire patterns, and the spread of invasive species. Several climate-related factors are influencing Hawaiˈi’s landscapes and contributing to these chang...Assessing the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park
Climate change in Hawaiʻi is expected to result in increasing temperatures and varying precipitation through the twenty-first century. Already, high elevation areas have experienced rapidly increasing temperatures and there has been an increase in the frequency of drought across the Islands. These climatic changes could have significant impacts on Hawaiʻi’s plants and animals. Changes in temperatu... - Data
Nakula, Maui environmental controls on plant growth and seedling recruitment in a cloud-affected restoration site, 2016-2019
Fog has been demonstrated to support plant growth, survival and ecosystem maintenance spanning rainfall and elevation gradients across the world. Persistent fog and strong winds on high mountain slopes in Hawai'i create a unique ecological environment. We collected stem diameter measurements of three native plant species at Nakula Natural Area Reserve, Maui, during 2016-2019 and numerous environmeLanai Island Spatial Prioritization of Native Plant Habitat and Hunting Areas, 2021
This data release includes data and metadata on all native plant species, native habitat, and hunting areas included in the spatial prioritization analyses. Broadly, recovery of threatened and endangered species requires specific management actions by natural resource managers at a fine scale. We used a systematic conservation planning framework to outline conservation goals across multiple land-uLanai habitat and ecological associations of two non-native ungulate species 2011
This series of five raster datasets includes three input rasters developed to model habitat suitability for two ungulate species on the island of Lanai; the two habitat suitability model raster datasets are also part of this data release. Input datasets were derived from WorldView-2 data to create vegetation (hereafter, NDVI) and bare ground indices, and from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to creHawaiian Islands datasets quantifying the effects of invasive animals and plants on native forests across the archipelago 2019
Dataset includes publicly available geologic and rainfall data, and environmental and ecological data derived or collected for this project. Specifically, water infiltration measurements, interpreted field-saturated hydraulic conductivity values, ungulate activity, vegetation cover, general soil and weather conditions data are included. Soil samples were collected, lab analyzed, and are included iHawaii Island, modelled density of malaria-resistant and -susceptible Iiwi following release of malaria-resistant birds under three climate change projections, 2030-2100
This data set provides the simulated results of releasing malaria-resistant Iiwi into existing populations of wild birds on the Island of Hawaii. Resistant birds are released into mid- and high-elevation forests at different densities at 10-year intervals from 2030 to 2070. Populations of both malaria-resistant and susceptible Iiwi are then predicted at 10-year intervals from release until 2100. PHawaii Land Cover and Habitat Status
These two raster data layers depict the land cover and degree of human disturbance to plant communities on the seven main Hawaiian Islands, and were developed as part of a comprehensive USGS assessment of carbon sequestration potential by natural ecosystems in the State of Hawaii. - Web Tools
Avian Malaria Warning System
Data for this warning system is a compilation of NOAA NCDC Global Historical Climatology Network data, Dark Sky API 2-week forecast data, and calculated historical annual climatic averages based on the NOAA NCDC data. All data has been statistically adjusted for each individual site location based on collected site data.
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