A bright orange male ‘akepa captured in the Hawaiian rainforest on Moloka‘i, Hawai‘i. Akepa are an endangered species found on only 3 of the 8 main Hawaiian islands. Their geographic range has been restricted by land use change, invasive species, and climate change.
Lucas Berio Fortini
Specialty: Quantitative methods, including simulation modeling, to make conservation and management efforts more science-based. Expertise in population and community ecology modeling and analyses. Interdisciplinary training and experience in forest mensuration, plant ecophysiology, remote sensing, GIS and natural resource economics, among others.
Research Interests: Applied conservation research focused on decision support. Research focused on how the response of populations and communities to natural and human-made disturbance determine ecological resilience and shape opportunities for conservation and management. Determining impacts of climate change on Pacific Island ecosystems and their interactions with current serious threats of invasives, land cover change, and fire.
Personal Interests: biking, hiking, playing music, drones.
Education and Certifications
Ph.D. 2010 Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL
B.S. 2001 Resource Management (Forest Ecology concentration) University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA
A.A. 1999 Environmental Studies, Moorpark College, Moorpark, CA
Science and Products
Modeling First Records to Guide Invasive Species Biosurveillance in Hawai‘i
Climatic and Ecological Scenarios to Guide Development of a Spatial Resist-Accept-Direct Portfolio at Nāpuʻu, Hawaiʻi
Assessing the Effects of Management Interventions and Climate Variability on Reintroduced Hawaiian Rare Plants
Forecasting the Spread of Invasive Plants
Mapping Vegetation on Lāna‘i
Applying a Novel Spatial Prioritization Technique to Support Climate Resilient Conservation Planning for the Recovery of 300 Endangered and At Risk Species in Maui Nui
Predicting and Mitigating the Threat of Avian Disease to Forest Birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge
Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Spread of Fire-Promoting Plants in Hawai‘i: Assessing Emerging Threats to Rare Native Plants and Ecosystems
Using Plant Physiologic Responses to Environmental Conditions to Improve Species and Habitat Management in Hawaii
Global Climate Change Impacts on Plants of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park
Climate and Management Effects on Soil Infiltration and Runoff in Hawaiian Forests
Support to the Pacific Islands LCC
Island of Hawaiʻi lidar-based habitat suitability for ʻākohekohe (Palmeria dolei) conservation introductions, 2023
High-Resolution Land Cover Maps of Lāna‘i, Hawai‘i, 2020
Island of Hawaii bird, mosquito, and avian malaria infection data 2001-2004
Hawaiian Islands excess rainfall conditions under current (2002-2012) and future (2090-2099) climate scenarios
Hawaiian Islands climate compatibility of Coconut Rhinoceros Beetle (CRB, Oryctes rhinoceros) based on global and local species occurrences 2022
Hawaiian Islands downscaled climate projections for baseline (1983-2012), mid- (2040-2059), and late-century (2060-2079) scenarios
Hawaiian Islands bioclimatic variables for baseline and future climate scenarios
Nakula, Maui environmental controls on plant growth and seedling recruitment in a cloud-affected restoration site, 2016-2019
Lanai Island Spatial Prioritization of Native Plant Habitat and Hunting Areas, 2021
Lanai habitat and ecological associations of two non-native ungulate species 2011
Hawaiian Islands datasets quantifying the effects of invasive animals and plants on native forests across the archipelago 2019
Hawaii Island, modelled density of malaria-resistant and -susceptible Iiwi following release of malaria-resistant birds under three climate change projections, 2030-2100
A bright orange male ‘akepa captured in the Hawaiian rainforest on Moloka‘i, Hawai‘i. Akepa are an endangered species found on only 3 of the 8 main Hawaiian islands. Their geographic range has been restricted by land use change, invasive species, and climate change.
Blue flagging tape marks the path of a research transect in a Hawaiian rainforest on the island of Moloka'i.
Blue flagging tape marks the path of a research transect in a Hawaiian rainforest on the island of Moloka'i.
Fine-resolution land cover mapping over large and mountainous areas for Lāna‘i, Hawaii using posterior probabilities, and expert knowledge
Identifying conservation introduction sites for endangered birds through the integration of lidar-based habitat suitability models and population viability analyses
Environmental and geographical factors influence the occurrence and abundance of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus, in Hawai‘i
Examining current bias and future projection consistency of globally downscaled climate projections commonly used in climate impact studies
Empirical estimation of habitat suitability for rare plant restoration in an era of ongoing climatic shifts
Citizen science can complement professional invasive plant surveys and improve estimates of suitable habitat
High resolution lidar data shed light on inter-island translocation of endangered bird species in the Hawaiian Islands
Estimating the impact of climate and vegetation changes on runoff risk across the Hawaiian landscape
A near four-decade time series shows the Hawaiian Islands have been browning since the 1980s
A century of drought in Hawai‘i: Geospatial analysis and synthesis across hydrological, ecological, and socioeconomic scales
Bioclimatic variables dataset for baseline and future climate scenarios for climate change studies in Hawai'i
Future directions to manage wildlife health in a changing climate
Science and Products
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Filter Total Items: 21
Modeling First Records to Guide Invasive Species Biosurveillance in Hawai‘i
Early detection of invasive species can enable their successful eradication. With climate change and dynamic patterns of global trade, it is difficult to predict which new invasive species will next get introduced and where introduction and establishment will occur. We are analyzing where non-native species have first established in Hawai‘i to develop mapped predictions of the relative risk of new...Climatic and Ecological Scenarios to Guide Development of a Spatial Resist-Accept-Direct Portfolio at Nāpuʻu, Hawaiʻi
Climate change and invasive species are transforming ecosystems. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework organizes management objectives into those that seek to Resist change and maintain historical ecological communities, those that Accept some or all aspects of ecological transformation, and those that Direct an ecological community to a preferred state. We are evaluating risks posed by climate...Assessing the Effects of Management Interventions and Climate Variability on Reintroduced Hawaiian Rare Plants
Hawaiʻi is known as the “endangered species capital of the world,” an unwelcomed label brought on by more than a century of habitat destruction, invasive species spread, and pollinator and seed disperser declines. Hawaiʿi is home to 400 endangered plant species, most of which are found nowhere else in the world. Conservation managers have spent decades putting enormous effort into carefully reintrForecasting the Spread of Invasive Plants
We are using invasive plant data - collected locally and globally by government agencies and citizen scientists - to build advanced computer models to map the potential distribution of invasive plant species. Despite large ecological damage and economic costs associated with invasive species; limited funds are available yearly for invasive species control. These products will increase efficiency...Mapping Vegetation on Lāna‘i
We are combining high-resolution spatial imagery with ground-collected data to create detailed classification maps of native and non-native plants on Lāna‘i. We are also using the high-resolution maps, historical satellite and aerial imagery to analyze changes in ‘ua‘u - Hawaiian petrel - nesting habitat. For the first time at island scales in Hawai’i, this species-level mapping uses high...Applying a Novel Spatial Prioritization Technique to Support Climate Resilient Conservation Planning for the Recovery of 300 Endangered and At Risk Species in Maui Nui
Hawaiʻi is often referred to as the endangered species capital of the world, with hundreds of species at risk. While Hawaiian forest birds have garnered attention in the global conservation community as they face imminent extinction due to climate change, climate also poses serious challenges to hundreds of other Hawaiian species. Although traditional recovery plans provide meaningful guidance toPredicting and Mitigating the Threat of Avian Disease to Forest Birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge
Hawaiʻi’s native forest birds are known worldwide for their diversity and beauty. Unfortunately, many species are heading towards extinction because of bird malaria spread by mosquitoes introduced over a century ago. Remaining populations of these highly threatened forest birds tend to be at high elevations near the tree line on mountains, where cooler temperatures limit mosquitoes and malaria devPredicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Spread of Fire-Promoting Plants in Hawai‘i: Assessing Emerging Threats to Rare Native Plants and Ecosystems
2018 was a record-breaking year for wildfires in Hawai‘i with over 30,000 acres burned statewide, including the habitat of the Oʻahu chewstick, a critically endangered flowering plant with less than 50 individuals remaining. The frequency and severity of wildfire in Hawai‘i has been increasing, and this trend is predicted to worsen with climate change. Wildfires are promoted by highly flammable inUsing Plant Physiologic Responses to Environmental Conditions to Improve Species and Habitat Management in Hawaii
Recent studies show that past and ongoing environmental changes have been substantial and have likely already affected conservation efforts in Hawai‘i. Much of the state has experienced substantial drying, including decreases in mean annual precipitation since the 1920s, longer rainless periods, and decreasing stream flow. Temperatures have been increasing in Hawai‘i for the last 40 years...Global Climate Change Impacts on Plants of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park
Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Warming temperatures and altered precipitation patterns both impact ecological systems, but managing these impacts is difficult without detailed information on the magnitude and timing of these climate-related changes.Climate and Management Effects on Soil Infiltration and Runoff in Hawaiian Forests
Hawai‘i's precipitation is greatest in upland areas that are typically forested. This precipitation provides water for both people and ecosystems. Precipitation can either run off and contribute to streamflow, or infiltrate into the ground and provide water for plants, base flow to streams, or recharge to aquifers. The exact routing that water takes is controlled by many factors, including the...Support to the Pacific Islands LCC
Within a context of human-mediated land cover change, invasive competitors, predators and disease, conservation biologists and practitioners are now concerned that climate change will further impact the beleaguered flora and fauna of the Pacific Islands. Across the region and elsewhere, to determine these potential impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research efforts have focused... - Data
Filter Total Items: 13
Island of Hawaiʻi lidar-based habitat suitability for ʻākohekohe (Palmeria dolei) conservation introductions, 2023
This dataset comprises high-resolution geotif files representing various aspects of the ʻākohekohe (Palmeria dolei) potential habitat on the Island of Hawaiʻi. It includes a habitat suitability map showing average suitability scores, a map of homogenous forested areas (HFAs) depicting clusters with consistent suitability scores, and a map of pixel-wise standard deviation across habitat suitabilityHigh-Resolution Land Cover Maps of Lāna‘i, Hawai‘i, 2020
This dataset provides high-resolution, species-specific land cover maps for the Hawaiian island of Lāna'i based on 2020 WorldView-2 satellite imagery. Machine learning models were trained on extensive ground control polygons and points. The land cover maps capture the distribution and diversity of vegetation with high accuracy to support conservation planning and monitoring. This data release consIsland of Hawaii bird, mosquito, and avian malaria infection data 2001-2004
This data publication contains data files collected as part of a field, laboratory, and modeling effort aimed at uncovering ecological drivers of avian malaria transmission and impacts on Hawaiian honeycreepers across an elevational gradient on the eastern flank of Mauna Loa and Kilauea volcanoes on Hawaii Island. From 2001-2004, mosquito and bird data were collected at nine sites ranging 25 to 1,Hawaiian Islands excess rainfall conditions under current (2002-2012) and future (2090-2099) climate scenarios
One of the determinants of runoff is the occurrence of excess rainfall events where rainfall rates exceed the infiltration capacity of soils. To help understand runoff risks, we calculated the probability of excess rainfall events across the Hawaiian landscape by comparing the probability distributions of projected rainfall frequency and land cover-specific infiltration capacity. We characterizedHawaiian Islands climate compatibility of Coconut Rhinoceros Beetle (CRB, Oryctes rhinoceros) based on global and local species occurrences 2022
The arrival of the coconut rhinoceros beetle (CRB, Oryctes rhinoceros) in Hawaii poses serious threats to endemic palm species, crop species and iconic palm trees across the archipelago. As this invasive is found on the island of Oahu primarily at lower elevations, there are concerns about the species spreading towards high value native habitats at higher elevations and/or to other islands acrossHawaiian Islands downscaled climate projections for baseline (1983-2012), mid- (2040-2059), and late-century (2060-2079) scenarios
Global downscaled projections are now some of the most widely used climate datasets in the world, however, they are rarely examined for representativeness of local climate or the plausibility of their projected changes. Here we apply steps to improve the utility of two such global datasets (CHELSA and WorldClim2) to provide credible climate scenarios for climate change impact studies in Hawaii. OuHawaiian Islands bioclimatic variables for baseline and future climate scenarios
We integrated recent climate model projections developed for the State of Hawai’i with current climatological datasets to generate updated regionally defined bioclimatic variables. We derived updated bioclimatic variables from new projections of baseline and future monthly minimum, mean, and maximum temperature (Tmin, Tmean, Tmax) and mean precipitation (Pmean) data at 250 m resolution. We used obNakula, Maui environmental controls on plant growth and seedling recruitment in a cloud-affected restoration site, 2016-2019
Fog has been demonstrated to support plant growth, survival and ecosystem maintenance spanning rainfall and elevation gradients across the world. Persistent fog and strong winds on high mountain slopes in Hawai'i create a unique ecological environment. We collected stem diameter measurements of three native plant species at Nakula Natural Area Reserve, Maui, during 2016-2019 and numerous environmeLanai Island Spatial Prioritization of Native Plant Habitat and Hunting Areas, 2021
This data release includes data and metadata on all native plant species, native habitat, and hunting areas included in the spatial prioritization analyses. Broadly, recovery of threatened and endangered species requires specific management actions by natural resource managers at a fine scale. We used a systematic conservation planning framework to outline conservation goals across multiple land-uLanai habitat and ecological associations of two non-native ungulate species 2011
This series of five raster datasets includes three input rasters developed to model habitat suitability for two ungulate species on the island of Lanai; the two habitat suitability model raster datasets are also part of this data release. Input datasets were derived from WorldView-2 data to create vegetation (hereafter, NDVI) and bare ground indices, and from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to creHawaiian Islands datasets quantifying the effects of invasive animals and plants on native forests across the archipelago 2019
Dataset includes publicly available geologic and rainfall data, and environmental and ecological data derived or collected for this project. Specifically, water infiltration measurements, interpreted field-saturated hydraulic conductivity values, ungulate activity, vegetation cover, general soil and weather conditions data are included. Soil samples were collected, lab analyzed, and are included iHawaii Island, modelled density of malaria-resistant and -susceptible Iiwi following release of malaria-resistant birds under three climate change projections, 2030-2100
This data set provides the simulated results of releasing malaria-resistant Iiwi into existing populations of wild birds on the Island of Hawaii. Resistant birds are released into mid- and high-elevation forests at different densities at 10-year intervals from 2030 to 2070. Populations of both malaria-resistant and susceptible Iiwi are then predicted at 10-year intervals from release until 2100. P - Multimedia
‘Akepa in the hand
A bright orange male ‘akepa captured in the Hawaiian rainforest on Moloka‘i, Hawai‘i. Akepa are an endangered species found on only 3 of the 8 main Hawaiian islands. Their geographic range has been restricted by land use change, invasive species, and climate change.
A bright orange male ‘akepa captured in the Hawaiian rainforest on Moloka‘i, Hawai‘i. Akepa are an endangered species found on only 3 of the 8 main Hawaiian islands. Their geographic range has been restricted by land use change, invasive species, and climate change.
Hawaiian rainforest on the island of Moloka'iBlue flagging tape marks the path of a research transect in a Hawaiian rainforest on the island of Moloka'i.
Blue flagging tape marks the path of a research transect in a Hawaiian rainforest on the island of Moloka'i.
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Filter Total Items: 36
Fine-resolution land cover mapping over large and mountainous areas for Lāna‘i, Hawaii using posterior probabilities, and expert knowledge
The task of accurately mapping species-specific vegetation cover in remote and topographically complex regions like those found in Hawaiʻi presents unique challenges. This study leverages a machine learning approach to accurately classify vegetation into fine species-specific classes across the island of Lāna‘i, Hawaii, offering a novel methodology for tackling such challenges. Utilizing high-resoAuthorsLucas Fortini, Qiuming Cheng, Yoko Uyehara, Kari Bogner, Jonathan Sprague, Rachel SpragueIdentifying conservation introduction sites for endangered birds through the integration of lidar-based habitat suitability models and population viability analyses
Similar to other single-island endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers, the critically endangered ‘ākohekohe (Palmeria dolei) is threatened by climate-driven disease spread. To avert the imminent risk of extinction, managers are considering novel measures, including the conservation introduction (CI) of ‘ākohekohe from Maui to higher elevation habitats on the Island of Hawai’i. This study integrated lidar-AuthorsLucas Fortini, Erica Gallerani, Christopher C Warren, Eben H. PaxtonEnvironmental and geographical factors influence the occurrence and abundance of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus, in Hawai‘i
Hawaiian honeycreepers, a group of endemic Hawaiian forest birds, are being threatened by avian malaria, a non-native disease that is driving honeycreepers populations to extinction. Avian malaria is caused by the parasite Plasmodium relictum, which is transmitted by the invasive mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus. Environmental and geographical factors play an important role in shaping mosquito-bornAuthorsOswaldo Villena, Katherine Maria McClure, Richard J. Camp, Dennis Lapointe, Carter T. Atkinson, Helen Sofaer, Lucas FortiniExamining current bias and future projection consistency of globally downscaled climate projections commonly used in climate impact studies
The associated uncertainties of future climate projections are one of the biggest obstacles to overcome in studies exploring the potential regional impacts of future climate shifts. In remote and climatically complex regions, the limited number of available downscaled projections may not provide an accurate representation of the underlying uncertainty in future climate or the possible range of potAuthorsLucas Fortini, Lauren R. Kaiser, Abby G. Frazier, Thomas W GiambellucaEmpirical estimation of habitat suitability for rare plant restoration in an era of ongoing climatic shifts
Accurate estimates of current and future habitat suitability are needed for species that may require assistance in tracking a shifting climate. Standard species distribution models (SDMs) based on occurrence data are the most common approach for evaluating climatic suitability, but these may suffer from inaccuracies stemming from disequilibrium dynamics and/or an inability to identify suitable cliAuthorsPaul Krushelnycky, Lucas Fortini, Jeffrey Mallinson, Jesse FeltsCitizen science can complement professional invasive plant surveys and improve estimates of suitable habitat
AimCitizen science is a cost-effective potential source of invasive species occurrence data. However, data quality issues due to unstructured sampling approaches may discourage the use of these observations by science and conservation professionals. This study explored the utility of low-structure iNaturalist citizen science data in invasive plant monitoring. We first examined the prevalence of inAuthorsMonica Dimson, Lucas Fortini, Morgan W Tingley, Thomas W GillespieHigh resolution lidar data shed light on inter-island translocation of endangered bird species in the Hawaiian Islands
Translocation, often a management solution reserved for at-risk species, is a highly time-sensitive intervention in the face of a rapidly changing climate. The definition of abiotic and biotic habitat requirements is essential to the selection of appropriate release sites in novel environments. However, field-based approaches to gathering this information are often too time intensive, especially iAuthorsErica M. Gallerani, Jeffrey Burgett, Nicolas R. Vaughn, Lucas Fortini, Geoffrey A. Fricker, Hanna L Mounce, Thomas W. Gillespie, Lisa H. Crampton, David Knapp, Justin M. Hite, Roy GilbEstimating the impact of climate and vegetation changes on runoff risk across the Hawaiian landscape
In Hawai’i, ecosystem conservation practitioners are increasingly considering the potential ecohydrological benefits from applied conservation action to mitigate the degrading impacts of runoff on native and restored ecosystems. One determinant of runoff is excess rainfall events where rainfall rates exceed the infiltration capacity of soils. To help understand runoff risks, we calculated the probAuthorsLucas Fortini, Lauren R. Kaiser, Kimberlie Perkins, Lulin Xue, Yaping WangA near four-decade time series shows the Hawaiian Islands have been browning since the 1980s
The Hawaiian Islands have been identified as a global biodiversity hotspot. We examine the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) using Climate Data Records products (0.05 × 0.05°) to identify significant differences in NDVI between neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation years (1984, 2019) and significant long-term changes over the entire time series (1982–2019) for the Hawaiian Islands and sAuthorsAustin Madson, Monica Dimson, Lucas Fortini, Kapua Kawelo, Tamara Tickin, Matt Keir, Chunyu Dong, Zhimin Ma, David W Beilman, Kelly Kay, Jonathan Pando Ocón, Erica Gallerani, Stephanie Pau, Thomas W GillespieA century of drought in Hawai‘i: Geospatial analysis and synthesis across hydrological, ecological, and socioeconomic scales
Drought is a prominent feature of Hawaiʻi’s climate. However, it has been over 30 years since the last comprehensive meteorological drought analysis, and recent drying trends have emphasized the need to better understand drought dynamics and multi-sector effects in Hawaiʻi. Here, we provide a comprehensive synthesis of past drought effects in Hawaiʻi that we integrate with geospatial analysis of dAuthorsAbby G. Frazier, Christian P. Giardina, Thomas W Giambelluca, Laura Brewington, Yi-Leng Chen, Pao-Shin Chu, Lucas Fortini, David Helweg, Victoria W. Keener, Ryan J Longman, Matthew P Lucas, Alan Mair, Delwyn S. Oki, Julian J Reyes, Stephanie G. Yelenik, Clay TrauernichtBioclimatic variables dataset for baseline and future climate scenarios for climate change studies in Hawai'i
Gridded bioclimatic variables representing yearly, seasonal, and monthly means and extremes in temperature and precipitation have been widely used for ecological modeling purposes and in broader climate change impact and biogeographical studies. As a result of their utility, numerous sets of bioclimatic variables have been developed on a global scale (e.g., WorldClim) but rarely represent the fineAuthorsLucas Fortini, Lauren R. Kaiser, Lulin Xue, Yaping WangFuture directions to manage wildlife health in a changing climate
In September 2019 The Economist wrote an obituary to Okjökull, a glacier in western Iceland that was declared “dead” in 2014, a victim of climate change. Although a few wildlife species have already incurred such a fate (e.g., the Bramble Cay melomys [Melomys rubicola]) (Fulton 2017), many more are on the path to climate-driven extinction (Andermann et al. 2020; Ceballos et al. 2015; He et al. 201AuthorsErik K. Hofmeister, Emily Cornelius Ruhs, Lucas Fortini, M. Camille Hopkins, Lee C. Jones, Kevin D. Lafferty, Jonathan M. Sleeman, Olivia E. LeDee - Web Tools
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