Lucas Berio Fortini
Specialty: Quantitative methods, including simulation modeling, to make conservation and management efforts more science-based. Expertise in population and community ecology modeling and analyses. Interdisciplinary training and experience in forest mensuration, plant ecophysiology, remote sensing, GIS and natural resource economics, among others.
Research Interests: Applied conservation research focused on decision support. Research focused on how the response of populations and communities to natural and human-made disturbance determine ecological resilience and shape opportunities for conservation and management. Determining impacts of climate change on Pacific Island ecosystems and their interactions with current serious threats of invasives, land cover change, and fire.
Personal Interests: biking, hiking, playing music, drones.
Education and Certifications
Ph.D. 2010 Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL
B.S. 2001 Resource Management (Forest Ecology concentration) University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA
A.A. 1999 Environmental Studies, Moorpark College, Moorpark, CA
Science and Products
Expanding a Dynamic Model of Species Vulnerability to Climate Change for Hawai‘i and Other Pacific Island Ecosystems
Identifying the Risk of Runoff and Erosion in Hawaiʻi’s National Parks
Managing Non-native Game Mammals to Reduce Future Conflicts with Native Plant Conservation in Hawai‘i
Hawai‘i Carbon Storage and Greenhouse Gas Flux Assessment
Effects of Drought on Soil Moisture and Water Resources in Hawai‘i
Changes in Water Flow through Hawaiian Forests due to Invasive Species and Changing Rainfall Patterns
Influences of Climate Change, Climate Variability, and Drought on Human Communities and Ecosystems in Hawaiʻi
Assessing the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park
Establishing Climate Change Vulnerability Rankings for Hawaiian Native Plants
Hawaii Land Cover and Habitat Status
Complex demographic responses to contrasting climate drivers lead to divergent population trends across the range of a threatened alpine plant
Hawai‘i forest review: Synthesizing the ecology, evolution, and conservation of a model system
Perceived barriers to the use of assisted colonization for climate sensitive species in the Hawaiian Islands
Landscape level effects of invasive plants and animals on water infiltration through Hawaiian tropical forests
Cloud water interception in Hawai‘i: Developing capacity to characterize the spatial patterns and effects on water and ecological processes responses in Hawai‘i
Habitat suitability and ecological associations of two non-native ungulate species on the Hawaiian island of Lanai
Local to landscape-level controls of water fluxes through Hawaiian forests: Effects of invasive animals and plants on soil infiltration capacity across substrate and moisture gradients
Fostering real-time climate adaptation: Analyzing past, current, and forecast temperature to understand the dynamic risk to Hawaiian honeycreepers from avian malaria
The evolving threat of rapid Ohia death (ROD) to Hawaii’s native ecosystems and rare plant species
Identifying opportunities for long-lasting habitat conservation and restoration in Hawaii’s shifting climate
Floristic and climatic reconstructions of two Lower Cretaceous successions from Peru
Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation-management strategies in Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park
Science and Products
- Science
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Expanding a Dynamic Model of Species Vulnerability to Climate Change for Hawai‘i and Other Pacific Island Ecosystems
Initial studies suggest terrestrial Hawaiian plant species may be vulnerable to climate change. However, these models lack information on species-specific traits that affect ecological and evolutionary responses of species to climate change. Research is needed to refine current vulnerability models and apply these to Pacific Islands outside Hawai‘i.Identifying the Risk of Runoff and Erosion in Hawaiʻi’s National Parks
Haleakalā National Park (HNP) and the surrounding landscape spans many different land cover types, some of which are undergoing vegetation changes that can reduce the amount of water that infiltrates into soil. Decreased soil infiltration can lead to the erosion of terrestrial habitats, increases in the amount of sediment entering aquatic habitats, and flooding of downstream areas as runoff increManaging Non-native Game Mammals to Reduce Future Conflicts with Native Plant Conservation in Hawai‘i
Landscape-scale conservation of threatened and endangered species is often challenged by multiple, sometimes conflicting, land uses. In Hawaiʻi, efforts to conserve native forests have come into conflict with objectives to sustain non-native game mammals, such as feral pigs, goats, and deer, for subsistence and sport hunting. Maintaining stable or increasing game populations represents one of theHawai‘i Carbon Storage and Greenhouse Gas Flux Assessment
In recent years, the U.S. Geological Survey has been conducting a national biologic carbon sequestration assessment in the conterminous U.S. The assessment is designed to meet the requirements of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which calls for coverage of all 50 states and all ecosystems (including forests, grasslands, wetlands, agricultural lands, and rivers, lakes, and...Effects of Drought on Soil Moisture and Water Resources in Hawai‘i
Droughts in the Hawaiian Islands can enhance wildfire risk, diminish freshwater resources, and devastate threatened and endangered species on land and in nearshore ecosystems. During periods of drought, cloud-water interception, or fog drip (the process by which water droplets accumulate on the leaves and branches of plants and then drip to the ground) in Hawai‘i’s rain forests may play an importaChanges in Water Flow through Hawaiian Forests due to Invasive Species and Changing Rainfall Patterns
Precipitation in Hawaiʻi’s higher elevation upland areas provides needed water to both people and ecosystems. Once it reaches the ground, rain can either run off and contribute to water flow in streams, or it can infiltrate into the ground and provide water for plants and recharge aquifers and groundwater. The exact route that water takes is controlled by many factors, including the duration and iInfluences of Climate Change, Climate Variability, and Drought on Human Communities and Ecosystems in Hawaiʻi
Over the past century, Hawaiʻi has experienced a pronounced decline in precipitation and stream flow and a number of severe droughts. These changes can have wide-reaching implications, affecting the water supply, native vegetation and wildlife, wildfire patterns, and the spread of invasive species. Several climate-related factors are influencing Hawaiˈi’s landscapes and contributing to these changAssessing the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park
Climate change in Hawaiʻi is expected to result in increasing temperatures and varying precipitation through the twenty-first century. Already, high elevation areas have experienced rapidly increasing temperatures and there has been an increase in the frequency of drought across the Islands. These climatic changes could have significant impacts on Hawaiʻi’s plants and animals. Changes in temperatuEstablishing Climate Change Vulnerability Rankings for Hawaiian Native Plants
Hawaiʻi is considered a worldwide biodiversity hotspot, with nearly 90 percent of its native plants found nowhere else in the world. However, about half of these native plants are imperiled by threats including human development, non-native species, and climate change. Through this project, scientists modeled the relative vulnerability of over 1,000 native plant species to the effects of climate c - Data
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Hawaii Land Cover and Habitat Status
These two raster data layers depict the land cover and degree of human disturbance to plant communities on the seven main Hawaiian Islands, and were developed as part of a comprehensive USGS assessment of carbon sequestration potential by natural ecosystems in the State of Hawaii. - Multimedia
- Publications
Filter Total Items: 36
Complex demographic responses to contrasting climate drivers lead to divergent population trends across the range of a threatened alpine plant
Alpine plants are likely to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their restricted distributions and sensitivity to rapid environmental shifts occurring in high-elevation ecosystems. The well-studied Haleakalā silversword (‘āhinahina, Argyroxiphium sandwicense subsp. macrocephalum) already exhibits substantial climate-associated population decline, and offers the opportunity to uAuthorsLucas Fortini, Paul Krushelnycky, Donald Drake, Forest Starr, Kim Starr, Charles G. ChimeraHawai‘i forest review: Synthesizing the ecology, evolution, and conservation of a model system
As the most remote archipelago in the world, the Hawaiian Islands are home to a highly endemic and disharmonic biota that has fascinated biologists for centuries. Forests are the dominant terrestrial biome in Hawai‘i, spanning complex, heterogeneous climates across substrates that vary tremendously in age, soil structure, and nutrient availability. Species richness is low in Hawaiian forests compaAuthorsKasey Barton, Andrea Westerband, Rebecca Ostertag, Elizabeth Stacy, Kawika Winter, Don Drake, Lucas Fortini, Creighton M Litton, Susan Cordell, Paul Krushelnycky, Kapua Kawelo, Kealoha Feliciano, Gordon Bennett, Tiffany KnightPerceived barriers to the use of assisted colonization for climate sensitive species in the Hawaiian Islands
Conservation actions to safeguard climate change vulnerable species may not be utilized due to a variety of perceived barriers. Assisted colonization, the intentional movement and release of an organism outside its historical range, is one tool available for species predicted to lose habitat under future climate change scenarios, particularly for single island or single mountain range endemic specAuthorsShannon Rivera, Lucas Fortini, Sheldon M. Plentovich, Melissa PriceLandscape level effects of invasive plants and animals on water infiltration through Hawaiian tropical forests
Watershed degradation due to invasion threatens downstream water flows and associated ecosystem services. While this topic has been studied across landscapes that have undergone invasive-driven state changes (e.g., native forest to invaded grassland), it is less well understood in ecosystems experiencing within-system invasion (e.g. native forest to invaded forest). To address this subject, we conAuthorsLucas Fortini, Christina Leopold, Kimberlie Perkins, Oliver A. Chadwick, Stephanie G. Yelenik, James D. Jacobi, Kaiena Bishaw, Makani GreggCloud water interception in Hawai‘i: Developing capacity to characterize the spatial patterns and effects on water and ecological processes responses in Hawai‘i
Cloud-water interception (CWI) is the process by which fog or cloud water droplets are captured and accumulate on the leaves and branches of plants, some of which drips to the ground. Prior studies in Hawai'i indicate that CWI is highly variable and can contribute substantially to total precipitation. In this study, we monitored CWI and other processes at five mountain field sites on the Islands oAuthorsHan Tseng, Lucas Fortini, Alan Mair, Aurora Kagawa-Viviani, Stephanie G. Yelenik, Yoshiyuki Miyazawa, Michael A Nullet, Joseph Kennedy, John DeLay, Christina Leopold, Thomas GiambellucaHabitat suitability and ecological associations of two non-native ungulate species on the Hawaiian island of Lanai
The ability to effectively manage game species for specific conservation objectives is often limited by the scientific understanding of their distribution and abundance. This is especially true in Hawai‘i where introduced game mammals are poorly studied and have low value relative to native species in other states. We modeled the habitat suitability and ecological associations of European mouflonAuthorsSteve C. Hess, Lucas Fortini, Christina Leopold, Jacob Muise, Jonathan SpragueLocal to landscape-level controls of water fluxes through Hawaiian forests: Effects of invasive animals and plants on soil infiltration capacity across substrate and moisture gradients
Given the potential effect of invasive plants and animals to water fluxes through forests, the invasive-driven degradation of native ecosystems is a topic of great concern for many downstream land and water managers. The infiltration rate determines the partitioning between runoff and infiltration into soil in Hawaiian forests and beyond. Thus, to explore the ecohydrological effects of plant and aAuthorsLucas B. Fortini, Christina Leopold, Kimberlie Perkins, Oliver A. Chadwick, Stephanie G. Yelenik, James D. Jacobi, Kaiena Bishaw, Makani Gregg, Sarah N. RosaFostering real-time climate adaptation: Analyzing past, current, and forecast temperature to understand the dynamic risk to Hawaiian honeycreepers from avian malaria
Various vector control options are increasingly being considered to safeguard forest birds in their natural habitats from avian malaria transmission. However, vector control options require localized deployment that is not logistically, ethically, ecologically, nor economically viable everywhere and all the time. Based on thermal tolerances of the sporogonic stages of avian malaria (Plasmodium relAuthorsLucas B. Fortini, Lauren R. Kaiser, Dennis LapointeThe evolving threat of rapid Ohia death (ROD) to Hawaii’s native ecosystems and rare plant species
Hawai‘i’s most widespread native tree, ‘ōhi‘a lehua (Metrosideros polymorpha), has been dying across large areas of Hawai‘i Island mainly due to two fungal pathogens (Ceratocystis lukuohia and Ceratocystis huliohia) that cause a disease collectively known as Rapid ‘Ōhi‘a Death (ROD). Here we examine patterns of positive detections of C. lukuohia as it has been linked to the larger mortality eventsAuthorsLucas B. Fortini, Lauren R. Kaiser, Lisa Keith, Jonathan Price, R. Flint Hughes, James D. Jacobi, J. B. FridayIdentifying opportunities for long-lasting habitat conservation and restoration in Hawaii’s shifting climate
Conservation efforts in isolated archipelagos such as Hawaii often focus on habitat-based conservation and restoration efforts that benefit multiple species. Unfortunately, identifying locations where such efforts are safer from climatic shifts is still challenging. We aimed to provide a method to approximate these potential habitat shifts for similar data- and research-limited contexts. We modeleAuthorsLucas B. Fortini, James D. JacobiFloristic and climatic reconstructions of two Lower Cretaceous successions from Peru
Climate during the Early Cretaceous in tropical South America has often been reconstructed as arid. However, some areas seem to have been humid. We reconstructed the floristic composition of two tropical stratigraphic successions in Peru using quantitative palynology (rarefied species richness and abundance), and used the abundance of aridity vs. humidity indicator species to infer the predominantAuthorsPaula J. Mejia-Velasquez, Steven R. Manchester, Carlos A. Jaramillo, Luiz Quiroz, Lucas B. FortiniPotential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation-management strategies in Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park
Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Land managers and other responsible agencies will need to know how plant-species habitats will change over the next century in order to manage these resources effectively. This issue is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO), where curreAuthorsRichard J. Camp, S. Paul Berkowitz, Kevin W. Brink, James D. Jacobi, Rhonda Loh, Jonathan Price, Lucas B. Fortini - Web Tools
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