Michael Runge, Ph.D.
Michael Runge is a research ecologist at the Eastern Ecological Science Center, where he has worked since 1999.
Professional Experience
2001-present Research Ecologist at USGS Eastern Ecological Science Center (Previously Patuxent Wildlife Research Center)
2009 to 2010 visiting scientist at the University of Melbourne, School of Botany
1989 to 1994 taught math and science at St. Francis High School in Louisville, Kentucky
Education and Certifications
B.A. in biology and philosophy (1989) from the Johns Hopkins University
M.A.T. (Master of Arts in Teaching) in biology (1994) from Spalding University
Ph.D. in wildlife science (1999),with minors in biometrics and agricultural economics, from Cornell University
Honors and Awards
Regional Director’s Award for Excellence in Communication. USGS Western Region. November 2007. “In recognition of outstanding science leading to enhanced understanding of the relation bet
Unit Award for Excellence of Service. U.S. Department of Interior. November 2007. In recognition of the outstanding contributions of the International Polar Bear Science Team
Unit Award for Excellence of Service. U.S. Department of Interior. September 2007. In recognition of introducing the adaptive management initiative across the Department
Regional Director’s Conservation Award, USFWS Region 4. May 2007. For contributions to and partnership in the science and recovery efforts of the Florida manatee.
Extraordinary Contribution. Chief, National Wildlife Refuge System, USFWS. June 2003. For extraordinary contributions to Fulfilling the Promise.
Superior Service Award. United States Department of Interior. October 2005. For making your science available to natural resource managers for use in their management decisions
STAR Award - USFWS Region 5. June 2004. For outstanding contributions to improving wildlife management science on National Wildlife Refuges
STAR Award - USGS. August 2003. For supporting the USFWS in the manatee incidental take rule-making.
STAR Award - PWRC, U.S. Geological Survey. January 2002. For helping organize and present the Adaptive Management Workshop at the 2001 Wildlife Society Meeting.
STAR Award - PWRC, U.S. Geological Survey. January 2002. For helping organize and present the Adaptive Management Workshop at the 2001 Wildlife Society Meeting.
Gamma Sigma Delta. Cornell University. Election, May 1998.
Delta Epsilon Sigma. Spalding University. Election, April 1994.
Phi Beta Kappa. Johns Hopkins University. Election, March 1988.
Presidential Scholar. The White House. June 1985.
Science and Products
Value of information analysis as a decision support tool for biosecurity
Allowable take of a population of red-winged blackbirds in the northern Great Plains
Two-step adaptive management for choosing between two management actions
Essential information: Uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks
Evaluation of harvest and information needs for North American sea ducks
Status and threats analysis for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), 2016
Experts correctly describe demography associated with historical decline of the endangered Indiana bat, but not recent period of stationarity
Expert elicitation of population-level effects of disturbance
An evaluation of rapid methods for monitoring vegetation characteristics of wetland bird habitat
Detecting failure of climate predictions
Cross-seasonal effects on waterfowl productivity: Implications under climate change
Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: Objectives matter
Science and Products
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Value of information analysis as a decision support tool for biosecurity
This chapter demonstrates the economic concept of ‘value of information’(VOI), and how biosecurity managers can use VOI analysis to decide whether or not to reduce uncertainty by collecting additional information through monitoring, experimentation, or some other form of research. We first explore how some uncertainties may be scientifically interesting to resolve, but ultimately irrelevant to decAuthorsMichael C. Runge, Tracy Rout, Daniel Spring, Terry WalsheAllowable take of a population of red-winged blackbirds in the northern Great Plains
Red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) are protected under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act (MBTA), which has provisions against take. Blackbirds may be taken legally without a Federal permit, however, under an existing Depredation Order (50 CFR 21.43), which allows for take of blackbirds that are in the process of doing, or about to do, agricultural damage. Modeling the effect of take on blackbAuthorsMichael C. Runge, John R. SauerTwo-step adaptive management for choosing between two management actions
Adaptive management is widely advocated to improve environmental management. Derivations of optimal strategies for adaptive management, however, tend to be case specific and time consuming. In contrast, managers might seek relatively simple guidance, such as insight into when a new potential management action should be considered, and how much effort should be expended on trialing such an action.AuthorsAlana L. Moore, Leila Walker, Michael C. Runge, Eve McDonald-Madden, Michael A McCarthyEssential information: Uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks
Early resolution of uncertainty during an epidemic outbreak can lead to rapid and efficient decision making, provided that the uncertainty affects prioritization of actions. The wide range in caseload projections for the 2014 Ebola outbreak caused great concern and debate about the utility of models. By coding and running 37 published Ebola models with five candidate interventions, we found that,AuthorsShou-Li Li, Ottar Bjornstad, Matthew J. Ferrari, Riley Mummah, Michael C. Runge, Christopher J. Fonnesbeck, Michael J. Tildesley, William J. M. Probert, Katriona SheaEvaluation of harvest and information needs for North American sea ducks
Wildlife managers routinely seek to establish sustainable limits of sport harvest or other regulated forms of take while confronted with considerable uncertainty. A growing body of ecological research focuses on methods to describe and account for uncertainty in management decision-making and to prioritize research and monitoring investments to reduce the most influential uncertainties. We used siAuthorsMark D. Koneff, Guthrie S. Zimmerman, Chris P. Dwyer, Kathleen K. Fleming, Paul I. Padding, Patrick K. Devers, Fred A. Johnson, Michael C. Runge, Anthony J. RobertsStatus and threats analysis for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), 2016
Trichechus manatus (West Indian manatee), especially T. m. latirostris, the Florida subspecies, has been the focus of conservation efforts and extensive research since its listing under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. To determine the status of, and severity of threats to, the Florida manatee, a comprehensive revision and update of the manatee Core Biological Model was completed and used to peAuthorsMichael C. Runge, Carol A. Sanders-Reed, Catherine A. Langtimm, Jeffrey A. Hostetler, Julien Martin, Charles J. Deutsch, Leslie I. Ward-Geiger, Gary L. MahonExperts correctly describe demography associated with historical decline of the endangered Indiana bat, but not recent period of stationarity
Demographic characteristics of bats are often insufficiently described for modeling populations. In data poor situations, experts are often relied upon for characterizing ecological systems. In concert with the development of a matrix model describing Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) demography, we elicited estimates for parameterizing this model from 12 experts. We conducted this elicitation in two sAuthorsWayne E. Thogmartin, Carol A. Sanders-Reed, Jennifer Szymanski, Lori Pruitt, Michael C. RungeExpert elicitation of population-level effects of disturbance
Expert elicitation is a rigorous method for synthesizing expert knowledge to inform decision making and is reliable and practical when field data are limited. We evaluated the feasibility of applying expert elicitation to estimate population-level effects of disturbance on marine mammals. Diverse experts estimated parameters related to mortality and sublethal injury of North Atlantic right whalesAuthorsErica Fleishman, Mark Burgman, Michael C. Runge, Robert S Schick, Scott KraussAn evaluation of rapid methods for monitoring vegetation characteristics of wetland bird habitat
Wetland managers benefit from monitoring data of sufficient precision and accuracy to assess wildlife habitat conditions and to evaluate and learn from past management decisions. For large-scale monitoring programs focused on waterbirds (waterfowl, wading birds, secretive marsh birds, and shorebirds), precision and accuracy of habitat measurements must be balanced with fiscal and logistic constraiAuthorsBrian G. Tavernia, James E. Lyons, Brian W. Loges, Andrew Wilson, Jaime A. Collazo, Michael C. RungeDetecting failure of climate predictions
The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty1, 2. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies3. Here we present methods to detect when climateAuthorsMichael C. Runge, Julienne C. Stroeve, Andrew P. Barrett, Eve McDonald-MaddenCross-seasonal effects on waterfowl productivity: Implications under climate change
Previous efforts to relate winter-ground precipitation to subsequent reproductive success as measured by the ratio of juveniles to adults in the autumn failed to account for increased vulnerability of juvenile ducks to hunting and uncertainty in the estimated age ratio. Neglecting increased juvenile vulnerability will positively bias the mean productivity estimate, and neglecting increased vulneraAuthorsErik E. Osnas, Qing Zhao, Michael C. Runge, G Scott BoomerDecision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: Objectives matter
Formal decision-analytic methods can be used to frame disease control problems, the first step of which is to define a clear and specific objective. We demonstrate the imperative of framing clearly-defined management objectives in finding optimal control actions for control of disease outbreaks. We illustrate an analysis that can be applied rapidly at the start of an outbreak when there are multipAuthorsWilliam J. M. Probert, Katriona Shea, Christopher J. Fonnesbeck, Michael C. Runge, Tim E. Carpenter, Salome Durr, M. Graeme Garner, Neil Harvey, Mark A. Stevenson, Colleen T. Webb, Marleen Werkman, Michael J. Tildesley, Matthew J. Ferrari - Web Tools
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