Patrick Barnard
Patrick is the Research Director for the Climate Impacts and Coastal Processes Team, which includes overseeing the development and application of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS), coastal monitoring and process-based studies of beaches across California, and research investigating the link between climate variability and coastal hazards across the Pacific Ocean basin.
Biography
Dr. Patrick Barnard has been a coastal geologist with the USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center in Santa Cruz since 2003, and is the Research Director of the Climate Impacts and Coastal Processes Team. His research focuses on storm- and climate-related changes to the beaches and estuaries bordering the Pacific Ocean. His research has been published in over 80 peer-reviewed scientific papers, including Nature, and presented over 100 times at scientific conferences and universities. He serves on numerous regional, national and international scientific review panels related to climate change and coastal hazards. He received a BA from Williams College, MS from University of South Florida, and PhD from UC Riverside.
Science and Products
PS-CoSMoS: Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System
The CoSMoS model is currently available for most of the California coast and is now being expanded to support the 4.5 million coastal residents of the Puget Sound region, with emphasis on the communities bordering the sound.
Coastal Climate Impacts
The impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic Oceans can vary tremendously. Thus far the vast majority of national and international impact assessments and models of coastal climate change have focused on low-relief coastlines that are not near seismically active zones. Furthermore, the degree to which extreme waves and wind will add further stress to coastal...
Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.
The west coast of the United States is extremely complex and changeable because of tectonic activity, mountain building, and land subsidence. These active environments pose a major challenge for accurately assessing climate change impacts, since models were historically developed for more passive sandy coasts.
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...
Climate impacts on Monterey Bay area beaches
For beach towns around Monterey Bay, preserving the beaches by mitigating coastal erosion is vital. Surveys conducted now and regularly in the future will help scientists understand the short- and long-term impacts of climate change, El Niño years, and sea-level rise on a populated and vulnerable coastline.
CoSMoS-Groundwater
The USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) team has extensively studied overland flooding and coastal change due to rising seas and storms. Interactions with coastal stakeholders have elucidated another important question; will rising seas also intrude into coastal aquifers and raise groundwater...
CoSMoS 3.1: Central California
CoSMoS v3.1 for central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms)
CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California
CoSMoS 3.0 for southern California provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).
CoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River
Building on the initial work in the Bay Area and Outer Coast, CoSMoS 2.2 adds river flows to help users project combined river and coastal flooding along the northern California coast from Bodega Head to Point Arena.
CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay
With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF).
CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)
Our Coast Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms in the San Francisco Bay region.
Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay
The San Francisco Bay Coastal Flood Forecast pilot project is an operational CoSMoS model, part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL).
California shorelines and shoreline change data, 1998-2016
Mean high water shorelines along the coast of California for the years 1998-2002, 2015, and 2016 were extracted from LiDAR digital elevation models using ArcGIS. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System was used to calculate net shoreline movement between the pre-El Niño and post-El Niño shorelines, as a proxy for sandy shoreline change throughout the El Niño winter season. For a longer-term...
Projected responses of the coastal water table for California using present-day and future sea-level rise scenarios
Coastal groundwater levels (heads) can increase with sea level rise (SLR) where shallow groundwater floats on underlying seawater. In some areas coastal groundwater could rise almost as much as SLR, but where rising groundwater intersects surface drainage features, the increase will be less. Numerical modeling can provide insight into coastal areas that may be more or less vulnerable to...
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Central California, v3.1
This dataset contains spatial projections of coastal cliff retreat (and associated uncertainty) for future scenarios of sea-level rise (SLR) in Central California. Present-day cliff-edge positions used as the baseline for projections are also included. Projections were made using numerical models and field observations as part of Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS). Read metadata carefully...
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
CoSMoS makes detailed predictions over large geographic scales of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future SLR scenarios, as well as long-term shoreline change and cliff retreat. Several versions of CoSMoS have been implemented for areas of the California coast, including Southern California, Central California, and San Francisco Bay.
Our Coast Our Future
Our Coast, Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project focused on providing California coastal resource managers and planners locally relevant, online maps and tools to help understand, visualize, and anticipate vulnerabilities to sea level rise and storms.
Beach topography and nearshore bathymetry of northern Monterey Bay, California
This data release presents beach topography and nearshore bathymetry data from repeated surveys in northern Monterey Bay, California to document changes in shoreline position and coastal morphology as they relate to episodic (storms), seasonal, and interannual and longer processes. Since October 2014, semi-annual surveys have been performed in late summer (September or October...
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Southern California, v3.0, Phase 2
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and...
Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA)
The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) application was developed to provide users with insight on potential population, economic, land cover, and infrastructure vulnerability resulting a hazard. Interactive maps and graphics allow users to examine hazard exposure for individual communities and multiple communities and changes in hazard exposure.
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Near-surface wind fields for San Francisco Bay--historical and 21st century projected time series
To support Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) in the San Francisco Bay (v2.1), time series of historical and 21st-century near-surface wind fields (eastward and northward wind arrays) were simulated throughout the Bay.
While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enoug
Nearshore waves in southern California: hindcast, and modeled historical and 21st-century projected time series
Abstract: This data release presents modeled time series of nearshore waves along the southern California coast, from Point Conception to the Mexican border, hindcasted for 1980-2010 and projected using global climate model forcing for 1975-2005 and 2012-2100.
Details: As part of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS), time series of hindcast, historical, and 21st-century
Wave and Wind Projections Along United States Coasts
This pamphlet describes the time-series data available in USGS data release, "Wave and wind projections for United States Coasts; Mainland, Pacific Islands, and United States-Affiliated Pacific Islands."
The impacts of the 2015/2016 El Niño on California's sandy beaches
The El Niño Southern Oscillation is the most dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the Pacific. The 2015/2016 El Niño event was one of the strongest of the last 145 years, resulting in anomalously high wave energy across the U.S. West Coast, and record coastal erosion for many California beaches. To better manage coastal resources,...
Smith, Schuyler A; Barnard, Patrick L.Probabilistic application of an integrated catchment-estuary-coastal system model to assess the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts over the 21st century
Inlet-interrupted sandy coasts are dynamic and complex coastal systems with continuously evolving geomorphological behaviors under the influences of both climate change and human activities. These coastal systems are of great importance to society (e.g., providing habitats, navigation, and recreational activities) and are affected by both oceanic...
Bamunawala, J.; Dastgheib, Ali; Ranasinghe, Roshanka; van der Spek, Ad; Maskey, Shreedhar; Murray, A. Brad; Barnard, Patrick L.; Duong, Trang Minh; Sirisena, T.A.J.G.Increasing threat of coastal groundwater hazards from sea-level rise in California
Projected sea-level rise will raise coastal water tables, resulting in groundwater hazards that threaten shallow infrastructure and coastal ecosystem resilience. Here we model a range of sea-level rise scenarios to assess the responses of water tables across the diverse topography and climates of the California coast. With 1 m of sea-level rise,...
Befus, K.M.; Barnard, Patrick L.; Hoover, Daniel J.; Finzi Hart, Juliette; Voss, Clifford I.A holistic modelling approach to project the evolution of inlet-interrupted coastlines over the 21st century
Approximately one quarter of the World’s sandy beaches, most of which are interrupted by tidal inlets, are eroding. Understanding the long-term (50-100 year) evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts in a changing climate is therefore of great importance for coastal zone planners and managers. This study therefore focuses on the development and...
Bamunawala, Janaka; Dastgheib, Ali; Ranasinghe, Rosh; van der Spek, Ad; Maskey, Shreedhar; Murray, A. Brad; Duong, Trang M.; Barnard, Patrick L.; Sirisena, Jeewanthi GanganiImpacts of sea-level rise on the tidal reach of California coastal rivers using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
In coastal rivers, the interactions between tides and fluvial discharge affect local ecology, sedimentation, river dynamics, river mouth configuration, and the flooding potential in adjacent wetlands and low-lying areas. With sea-level rise, the tidal reach within coastal rivers can expand upstream, impacting river dynamics and increasing flood...
O'Neill, Andrea C.; Erikson, Li H.; Barnard, Patrick L.Sea-level rise exponentially increases coastal flood frequency
Sea-level rise will radically redefine the coastline of the 21st century. For many coastal regions, projections of global sea-level rise by the year 2100 (e.g., 0.5–2 meters) are comparable in magnitude to today’s extreme but short-lived increases in water level due to storms. Thus, the 21st century will see significant changes to...
Taherkhani, Mohsen; Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Frazer, L Neil; Anderson, Tiffany; Fletcher, CharlesSanta Barbara area coastal ecosystem vulnerability assessment
The Santa Barbara Area Coastal Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment (SBA CEVA) is a multidisciplinary research project that investigates future changes to southern Santa Barbara County climate, beaches, watersheds, wetland habitats and beach ecosystems. The target audience is local land use planners and decision makers. The main objective is to...
Myers, M.R.; Cayan, D.R.; Iacobellis, S.F.; Melack, J.M.; Beighley, R.E.; Barnard, Patrick L.; Dugan, J.E.; Page, H.M.A multidisciplinary coastal vulnerability assessment for local government focused on ecosystems, Santa Barbara area, California
Incorporating coastal ecosystems in climate adaptation planning is needed to maintain the well-being of both natural and human systems. Our vulnerability study uses a multidisciplinary approach to evaluate climate change vulnerability of an urbanized coastal community that could serve as a model approach for communities worldwide, particularly in...
Myers, Monique; Barnard, Patrick L.; Beighley, Edward; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dugan, Jenifer E.; Feng, Dongmei; Iacobellis, Samuel F.; Melack, John M.; Page, Henry M.Modeling sediment bypassing around idealized rocky headlands
Alongshore sediment bypassing rocky headlands remains understudied despite the importance of characterizing littoral processes for erosion abatement, beach management, and climate change adaptation. To address this gap, a numerical model sediment transport study was developed to identify controlling factors and mechanisms for sediment headland...
Douglas A. George; John L. Largier; Greg B. Pasternack; Barnard, Patrick L.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Erikson, Li H.An economic evaluation of adaptation pathways in coastal mega cities: An illustration for Los Angeles
Sea level rise and uncertainty in its projections pose a major challenge to flood risk management and adaptation investments in coastal mega cities. This study presents a comparative economic evaluation method for flood adaptation measures, which couples a cost–benefit analysis with the concept of adaptation pathways. Our approach accounts for...
de Ruig, Lars T.; Barnard, Patrick L.; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; Grifman, Phyllis; Finzi Hart, Juliette; de Moel, Hans; Sadrpour, Nick; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.The influence of shelf bathymetry and beach topography on extreme total water levels: Linking large-scale changes of the wave climate to local coastal hazards
Total water levels (TWLs) at the coast are driven by a combination of deterministic (e.g., tides) and stochastic (e.g., waves, storm surge, and sea level anomalies) processes. The contribution of each process to TWLs varies depending on regional differences in climate and framework geology, as well as local-scale variations in beach morphology,...
Katherine A. Serafin; Peter Ruggiero; Barnard, Patrick L.; Stockdon, Hilary F.Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change
Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-...
Barnard, Patrick L.; Erikson, Li H.; Foxgrover, Amy C.; Finzi Hart, Juliette A.; Limber, Patrick W.; O'Neill, Andrea C.; van Ormondt, Maarten; Vitousek, Sean; Wood, Nathan J.; Hayden, Maya K.; Jones, Jeanne M.Pre-USGS Publications
PubTalk 2/2011 — Is Our Coast in Jeopardy?
-predicting the impact of extreme storms on the California Coast
By Patrick Barnard, USGS Pacific Coastal & Marine Science Center
- Extreme storms are expected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change
- The USGS has developed the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting
New Model Shows Sea-level Rise Can Cause Increases in Groundwater Levels along California’s Coasts
A new model that combines sea-level rise scenarios and information about associated groundwater level responses shows that coastal water tables will rise as groundwater levels are pushed up by landward intrusions of seawater due to sea-level rise.
Resilience along the West Coast
Briefing held on science and policy initiatives that are helping protect West Coast ecosystems and communities from erosion, sea level rise, and other coastal hazards.
Coastal erosion researcher quoted in news coverage of fatal California cliff collapse
USGS researcher quoted in major news stories about the August 2 coastal cliff collapse that killed three people on a beach in Encinitas, California
New US Geological Survey-led Research Helps California Coastal Managers Prioritize Planning and Mitigation Efforts Due to Rising Seas and Storms
New U.S. Geological Survey-led coastal modeling research presents state, federal, and commercial entities with varying storm and sea level-rise scenarios to assist with planning for future infrastructure and mitigation needs along the California coast.
USGS surveys the southern Monterey Bay coast to study changing beaches
From September 12–14, scientists from the USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center used all-terrain vehicles and small watercraft to map the sand on beaches and under the water in southern Monterey Bay.
Southern California coastal cliffs could retreat 135 feet in 80 years as erosion rates potentially double
USGS scientists combined a series of computer models to forecast cliff erosion along the Southern California coast.
Sea Level Rise Could Double Erosion Rates of Southern California Coastal Cliffs
Coastal cliffs from Santa Barbara to San Diego might crumble at more than twice the historical rate by the year 2100 as sea levels rise.
Visiting scientist from Japan assisting shoreline-change studies in California
Masayuki Banno is spending a year-long sabbatical with the Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center in Santa Cruz, California, collaborating with Patrick Barnard’s coastal-change group.
USGS scientist explains how king tides provide a glimpse of future sea levels
USGS geologist Patrick Barnard spoke to the public at a “Coffee and King Tides” gathering held in Half Moon Bay, California, on December 4.
Coastal Flooding around the Globe Could Double in Decades
A study released in Scientific Reports indicates that the frequency and severity of coastal flooding around the globe could increase rapidly and double within a few decades, even with only moderate amounts of sea-level rise.
Disappearing Beaches: Modeling Shoreline Change in Southern California
Southern California could lose up to two-thirds of its beaches by 2100, if sea level rises 3 to 6 feet (0.9 to 1.8 meters) and human intervention is limited, according to a study conducted at the U.S. Geological Survey and recently published in the Journal of Geophysical Research–Earth Surface.
Severe Erosion on U.S. West Coast during 2015–16 El Niño
The 2015–16 El Niño was one of the most powerful of the last 145 years, according to a new coastal-erosion study by USGS scientists and colleagues from universities and state agencies.