Patrick Barnard
Patrick is the Research Director for the Climate Impacts and Coastal Processes Team, which includes overseeing the development and application of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS), coastal monitoring and process-based studies of beaches across California, and research investigating the link between climate variability and coastal hazards across the Pacific Ocean basin.
Dr. Patrick Barnard has been a coastal geologist with the USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center in Santa Cruz since 2003, and is the Research Director of the Climate Impacts and Coastal Processes Team. His research focuses on storm- and climate-related changes to the beaches and estuaries bordering the Pacific Ocean. His research has been published in over 80 peer-reviewed scientific papers, including Nature, and presented over 100 times at scientific conferences and universities. He serves on numerous regional, national and international scientific review panels related to climate change and coastal hazards. He received a BA from Williams College, MS from University of South Florida, and PhD from UC Riverside.
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Can beaches survive climate change?
Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise
A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change
Extreme oceanographic forcing and coastal response due to the 2015–2016 El Niño
Interactions of estuarine shoreline infrastructure with multiscale sea level variability
Controls of multi-modal wave conditions in a complex coastal setting
A multimodal wave spectrum-based approach for statistical downscaling of local wave climate
Automatic delineation of seacliff limits using lidar-derived high-resolution DEMs in southern California
Sea-level rise and coastal groundwater inundation and shoaling at select sites in California, USA
Effects of climate change on tidal marshes along a latitudinal gradient in California
Estuaries: Life on the edge: Chapter 19
Towards forecasting the retreat of California’s coastal cliffs during the 21st century
Non-USGS Publications**
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
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Can beaches survive climate change?
Anthropogenic climate change is driving sea level rise, leading to numerous impacts on the coastal zone, such as increased coastal flooding, beach erosion, cliff failure, saltwater intrusion in aquifers, and groundwater inundation. Many beaches around the world are currently experiencing chronic erosion as a result of gradual, present-day rates of sea level rise (about 3 mm/year) and human-drivenAuthorsSean Vitousek, Patrick L. Barnard, Patrick W. LimberDoubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise
Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, globalAuthorsSean Vitousek, Patrick L. Barnard, Charles H. Fletcher, Neil Frazer, Li H. Erikson, Curt D. StorlazziA model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change
We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolutionAuthorsSean Vitousek, Patrick L. Barnard, Patrick W. Limber, Li H. Erikson, Blake ColeExtreme oceanographic forcing and coastal response due to the 2015–2016 El Niño
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability across the Pacific Ocean basin, with influence on the global climate. The two end members of the cycle, El Niño and La Niña, force anomalous oceanographic conditions and coastal response along the Pacific margin, exposing many heavily populated regions to increased coastal flooding and erosion hazards. HoweverAuthorsPatrick L. Barnard, Daniel J. Hoover, David M. Hubbard, Alexander G. Snyder, Bonnie C. Ludka, Jonathan Allan, George M. Kaminsky, Ruggiero, Timu W. Gallien, Laura Gabel, Diana McCandless, Heather M. Weiner, Nicholas Cohn, Dylan L. Anderson, Katherine A. SerafinInteractions of estuarine shoreline infrastructure with multiscale sea level variability
Sea level rise increases the risk of storms and other short‐term water‐rise events, because it sets a higher water level such that coastal surges become more likely to overtop protections and cause floods. To protect coastal communities, it is necessary to understand the interaction among multiday and tidal sea level variabilities, coastal infrastructure, and sea level rise. We performed a seriesAuthorsRuo-Quian Wang, Liv M. Herdman, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Michelle Hummel, Mark T. StaceyControls of multi-modal wave conditions in a complex coastal setting
Coastal hazards emerge from the combined effect of wave conditions and sea level anomalies associated with storms or low-frequency atmosphere-ocean oscillations. Rigorous characterization of wave climate is limited by the availability of spectral wave observations, the computational cost of dynamical simulations, and the ability to link wave-generating atmospheric patterns with coastal conditions.AuthorsChristie Hegermiller, Ana C. Rueda, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, J.A.A. Antolinez, Fernando J. MendezA multimodal wave spectrum-based approach for statistical downscaling of local wave climate
Characterization of wave climate by bulk wave parameters is insufficient for many coastal studies, including those focused on assessing coastal hazards and long-term wave climate influences on coastal evolution. This issue is particularly relevant for studies using statistical downscaling of atmospheric fields to local wave conditions, which are often multimodal in large ocean basins (e.g. the PacAuthorsChristie Hegermiller, Jose A. A. Antolinez, Ana C. Rueda, Paula Camus, Jorge Perez, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Fernando J. MendezAutomatic delineation of seacliff limits using lidar-derived high-resolution DEMs in southern California
Seacliff erosion is a serious hazard with implications for coastal management and is often estimated using successive hand-digitized cliff tops or bases (toe) to assess cliff retreat. Even if efforts are made to standardize manual digitizing and eliminate subjectivity, the delineation of cliffs is time-consuming and depends on the analyst's interpretation. An automatic procedure is proposed to extAuthorsMonica Palaseanu-Lovejoy, Jeffrey J. Danielson, Cindy A. Thatcher, Amy C. Foxgrover, Patrick L. Barnard, John Brock, Adam YoungSea-level rise and coastal groundwater inundation and shoaling at select sites in California, USA
Study regionThe study region spans coastal California, USA, and focuses on three primary sites: Arcata, Stinson Beach, and Malibu Lagoon.Study focus1 m and 2 m sea-level rise (SLR) projections were used to assess vulnerability to SLR-driven groundwater emergence and shoaling at select low-lying, coastal sites in California. Separate and combined inundation scenarios for SLR and groundwater emergenAuthorsDaniel J. Hoover, Kingsley Odigie, Peter W. Swarzenski, Patrick L. BarnardEffects of climate change on tidal marshes along a latitudinal gradient in California
Public SummaryThe coastal region of California supports a wealth of ecosystem services including habitat provision for wildlife and fisheries. Tidal marshes, mudflats, and shallow bays within coastal estuaries link marine, freshwater and terrestrial habitats, and provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Climate change effects such as sea-level rise (SLR) are altering theseAuthorsKaren M. Thorne, Glen M. MacDonald, Rich F. Ambrose, Kevin J. Buffington, Chase M. Freeman, Christopher N. Janousek, Lauren N. Brown, James R. Holmquist, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Katherine W. Powelson, Patrick L. Barnard, John Y. TakekawaEstuaries: Life on the edge: Chapter 19
No abstract available.AuthorsJames E. Cloern, Patrick L. Barnard, Erin Beller, John C. Callaway, Letitia Grenier, Edwin D. Grosholz, Robin Grossinger, Kathryn Hieb, James T. Holligaugh, Noah Knowles, Martha Sutula, Samuel Veloz, Kerstin Wasson, Alison WhippleTowards forecasting the retreat of California’s coastal cliffs during the 21st century
In California, sea-level rise during the 21st century threatens to accelerate coastal cliff recession rates. To forecast such changes for managers and policymakers, models must play a key role. In this paper, we extend a ~70-year long dataset of measured historic sea cliff retreat rates in Southern California into the 21st century using a suite of simple analytical and empirical models. Ensemble rAuthorsPatrick W. Limber, Patrick L. Barnard, Cheryl HapkeNon-USGS Publications**
Barnard, P.L., Owen, L.A. and Finkel, R.C., 2004. Style and timing of glacial and paraglacial sedimentation in a monsoonal-influenced high Himalayan environment, the upper Bhagirathi Valley, Garhwal Himalaya. Sedimentary Geology, Volume 165, p. 199-221, doi:10.1016/j.sedgeo.2003.11.009Barnard, P.L., Owen, L.A., Sharma, M.C. and Finkel, R.C., 2004. Late Quaternary (Holocene) landscape evolution of a monsoon-influenced high Himalayan valley, Gori Ganga, Nanda Devi, NE Garhwal. Geomorphology, Volume 61 (1-2), p. 91-110, doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2003.12.002Barnard, P.L., 2003. The Timing and Nature of Glaciofluvial Erosion and Resedimentation in the Himalaya: the Role of Glacial and Paraglacial Processes in the Evolution of High Mountain Landscapes. Published Ph.D. Thesis, University of California, Riverside, 295 pp.Davis, R.A., Jr. and Barnard, P.L., 2003. Morphodynamics of the barrier-inlet system, west-central Florida. Marine Geology, Volume 200 (1-4), p. 77-101, doi:10.1016/S0025-3227(03)00178-6Finkel, R.C., Owen, L.A., Barnard, P.L. and Caffee, M.W., 2003. Beryllium-10 dating of Mount Everest moraines indicates a strong monsoonal influence and glacial synchroneity throughout the Himalaya. Geology, Volume 31, p. 561-564, doi:10.1130/0091-7613(2003)031<0561:BDOMEM>2.0.CO;2Owen, L.A., Finkel, R.C., Ma, H., Spencer, J.Q., Derbyshire, E., Barnard, P.L. and Caffee, M.W., 2003. Timing and style of Late Quaternary glaciation in northeastern Tibet. Geological Society of America Bulletin, Volume 115 (11), p. 1356-1364, doi:10.1130/B25314.1Owen, L.A., Ma, H., Derbyshire, E., Spencer, J.Q., Barnard, P.L., Zeng, Y.N., Finkel, R.C. and Caffee, M.W., 2003. The timing and style of Late Quaternary glaciation in the La Ji Mountains, NE Tibet: evidence for restricted glaciation during the latter part of the Last Glacial. Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie, Supplemental Volume 130, p. 263-276, ISBN 978-3-443-21130-1Owen, L.A., Spencer, J.Q., Ma, H., Barnard, P.L., Derbyshire, E., Finkel, R.C., Caffee, M.W. and Zeng, Y.N., 2003. Timing of Late Quaternary glaciation along the southwestern slopes of the Qilian Shan, Tibet. Boreas, Volume 32, p. 281-291, doi:10.1111/j.1502-3885.2003.tb01083.xVan der Woerd, J., Owen, L.A., Tapponnier, P., Xiwei, X., Kervyn, F., Finkel, R.C. and Barnard, P.L., 2003. Giant, ~M8 earthquake-triggered ice avalanches in the eastern Kunlun Shan, Northern Tibet: characteristics, nature and dynamics. Geological Society of America Bulletin, Volume 116 (3), p. 394-406, doi:10.1130/B25317.1Barnard, P.L., Owen, L.A., Sharma, M.C. and Finkel, R.C., 2001. Natural and human-induced landsliding in the Garhwal Himalaya of Northern India. Geomorphology, Volume 40, p. 21-35, doi:10.1016/S0169-555X(01)00035-6Davis, R.A., Jr. and Barnard, P.L., 2000. How anthropogenic factors in the back-barrier influence tidal inlet stability: examples from the Gulf Coast of Florida, USA. In: Pye, K. and Allen, J.R.L. (Eds.), Coastal and Estuarine Environments: sedimentology, geomorphology and geoarchaeology. Geological Society, London, Special Publication Number 175, p. 293-303, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.2000.175.01.21Barnard, P.L. and Owen, L.A., 2000. A selected bibliography for Late Quaternary glaciation in Tibet and Bordering Mountains. Quaternary International, Volume 65/66, p. 193-212Barnard, P.L. and Davis, R.A., Jr., 1999. Anthropogenic vs. natural influences on inlet evolution: west-central Florida. Coastal Sediments ’99 Conference Proceedings, Fire Island, New York, Volume 2, p. 1489-1504Barnard, P.L., 1998. Historical Morphodynamics of Inlet Channels: West-Central Florida. Master’s Thesis, University of South Florida, 179 pp.**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
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