Patrick Limber (Former Employee)
Science and Products
Building back bigger in hurricane strike zones
Despite decades of regulatory efforts in the United States to decrease vulnerability in developed coastal zones, exposure of residential assets to hurricane damage is increasing — even in places where hurricanes have struck before. Comparing plan-view footprints of individual residential buildings before and long after major hurricane strikes, we...Lazarus, Eli D.; Limber, Patrick W.; Goldstein, Evan B.; Dodd, Rosie; Armstrong, Scott B.
Assessing and communicating the impacts of climate change on the Southern California coast
Over the course of this and the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal erosion will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we currently know them. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies for projected increased...Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick L.; O'Neill, Andrea; Limber, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Finzi Hart, Juliette; Hayden, Maya; Jones, Jeanne M.; Wood, Nathan J.; Fitzgibbon, Michael; Foxgrover, Amy C.; Lovering, Jessica
Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for assessing climate change-driven coastal hazards and socio-economic impacts
This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale...Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick L.; O'Neill, Andrea; Wood, Nathan J.; Jones, Jeanne M.; Finzi Hart, Juliette; Vitousek, Sean; Limber, Patrick W.; Hayden, Maya; Fitzgibbon, Michael; Lovering, Jessica; Foxgrover, Amy C.
A model ensemble for projecting multi‐decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century
Sea cliff retreat rates are expected to accelerate with rising sea levels during the 21st century. Here we develop an approach for a multi‐model ensemble that efficiently projects time‐averaged sea cliff retreat over multi‐decadal time scales and large (>50 km) spatial scales. The ensemble consists of five simple 1‐D models adapted from the...Limber, Patrick W.; Barnard, Patrick L.; Vitousek, Sean; Erikson, Li
Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 1: Development of the third generation CoSMoS model
Due to the effects of climate change over the course of the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal change will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we know them today. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies due...O'Neill, Andrea; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick L.; Limber, Patrick W.; Vitousek, Sean; Warrick, Jonathan; Foxgrover, Amy C.; Lovering, Jessica
Coastal knickpoints and the competition between fluvial and wave-driven erosion on rocky coastlines
Active margin coastlines are distinguished by rock erosion that acts in two different directions: waves erode the coast horizontally or landwards, a process that creates sea cliffs; and rivers and streams erode the landscape vertically via channel incision. The relative rates of each process exert a dominant control on coastline morphology. Using...Limber, Patrick W.; Barnard, Patrick L.
Climate change-driven cliff and beach evolution at decadal to centennial time scales
Here we develop a computationally efficient method that evolves cross-shore profiles of sand beaches with or without cliffs along natural and urban coastal environments and across expansive geographic areas at decadal to centennial time-scales driven by 21st century climate change projections. The model requires projected sea level rise rates,...Erikson, Li; O'Neill, Andrea; Barnard, Patrick L.; Vitousek, Sean; Limber, Patrick W.
Can beaches survive climate change?
Anthropogenic climate change is driving sea level rise, leading to numerous impacts on the coastal zone, such as increased coastal flooding, beach erosion, cliff failure, saltwater intrusion in aquifers, and groundwater inundation. Many beaches around the world are currently experiencing chronic erosion as a result of gradual, present-day rates of...Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Limber, Patrick W.
A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change
We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular...Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Limber, Patrick W.; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake
New techniques to measure cliff change from historical oblique aerial photographs and structure-from-motion photogrammetry
Oblique aerial photograph surveys are commonly used to document coastal landscapes. Here it is shown that adequate overlap may exist in these photographic records to develop topographic models with Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetric techniques. Using photographs of Fort Funston, California, from the California Coastal Records Project,...Warrick, Jonathan; Ritchie, Andy; Adelman, Gabrielle; Adelman, Ken; Limber, Patrick W.
Indications of a positive feedback between coastal development and beach nourishment
Beach nourishment, a method for mitigating coastal storm damage or chronic erosion by deliberately replacing sand on an eroded beach, has been the leading form of coastal protection in the U.S. for four decades. However, investment in hazard protection can have the unintended consequence of encouraging development in places especially vulnerable...Armstrong, Scott; Lazarus, Eli D.; Limber, Patrick W.; Goldstein, Evan B.; Thorpe, Curtis; Ballinger, Rhoda
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future SLR scenarios, as well as long-term shoreline change and cliff retreat. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future...Barnard, Patrick; Erikson, Li; Foxgrover, Amy; Herdman, Liv; Limber, Patrick W.; O'Neill, Andrea; Vitousek, Sean