Paul Christopher Damian Milly (Former Employee)
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 31
Simulated global coastal ecosystem responses to a half-century increase in river nitrogen loads
Coastal ecosystems are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic stressors such as harmful algal blooms and hypoxia projected to intensify through the combined effects of eutrophication and warming. As a major terrestrial nitrogen (N) source to the ocean, rivers play a critical role in shaping both coastal and global biogeochemical cycling. Combining an enhanced-resolution (1/4°), global ocean ph
Authors
Xiao Liu, Charles A. Stock, John P. Dunne, Minjin Lee, Elena Shevliakova, Sergey Malyshev, Paul C. D. Milly
Possible anthropogenic enhancement of precipitation in the Sahel-Sudan Savanna by remote agricultural irrigation
The local climatic impacts of historical expansion of irrigation are substantial, but the distant impacts are poorly understood, and their governing mechanisms generally have not been rigorously analyzed. Our experiments with an earth-system model suggest that irrigation in the Middle East and South Asia may enhance rainfall in a large portion of the Sahel-Sudan Savanna (SSS) to an extent comparab
Authors
Yujin Zeng, Paul C. D. Milly, Elena Shevliakova, Sergey Malyshev, Marjolein von Huijgevoort, Krista A. Dunne
Globally prevalent land nitrogen memory amplifies water pollution following drought years
Enhanced riverine delivery of terrestrial nitrogen (N) has polluted many freshwater and coastal ecosystems, degrading drinking water and marine resources. An emerging view suggests a contribution of land N memory effects—impacts of antecedent dry conditions on land N accumulation that disproportionately increase subsequent river N loads. To date, however, such effects have only been explored for s
Authors
Minjin Lee, Charles A. Stock, Elena Shevliakova, Sergey Malyshev, Paul C. D. Milly
The GFDL Earth System Model Version 4.1 (GFDL-ESM 4.1): Overall coupled model description and simulation characteristics
We describe the baseline coupled model configuration and simulation characteristics of GFDL's Earth System Model Version 4.1 (ESM4.1), which builds on component and coupled model developments at GFDL over 2013–2018 for coupled carbon-chemistry-climate simulation contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. In contrast with GFDL's CM4.0 development effort that focus
Authors
John P Dunne, L W Horowitz, A. Adcroft, P. Ginoux, I.M. Held, J.C.H. Johns, John P. Krasting, Sergey Malyshev, V. Naik, F. Paulot, Elena Shevliakova, C. A. Stock, N Zadeh, V. Balaji, C Blanton, C Dupuis, J. Durachta, R Dussin, Paul P. G. Gauthier, S M Griffies, Huan Guo, Robert W. Hallberg, Matthew J. Harrison, Jian He, W Hurlin, Charles W. McHugh, R Menzel, Paul C. D. Milly, S Nikonov, D. Paynter, J J Ploshay, A. Radhakrishnan, K Rand, B Reichel, T.C. Robinson, M D Schwarzkopf, L Sentman, S. Underwood, H Vahlenkamp, M. Winton, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Bruce Wyman, Yujin Zeng, Ming Zhao
Colorado River flow dwindles as warming-driven loss of reflective snow energizes evaporation
The sensitivity of river discharge to climate-system warming is highly uncertain, and the processes that govern river discharge are poorly understood, which impedes climate-change adaptation. A prominent exemplar is the Colorado River, where meteorological drought and warming are shrinking a water resource that supports more than 1 trillion dollars of economic activity per year. A Monte Carlo simu
Authors
Paul C. D. Milly, Krista A. Dunne
SPEAR: The next generation GFDL modeling system for seasonal to multidecadal prediction and projection
We document the development and simulation characteristics of the next generation modeling system for seasonal to decadal prediction and projection at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). SPEAR (Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research) is built from component models recently developed at GFDL—the AM4 atmosphere model, MOM6 ocean code, LM4 land model, and SIS2 sea ice
Authors
Thomas L. Delworth, William F. Cooke, Alistair A. Adcroft, Mitchell Bushuk, Jan-Huey Chen, Krista A. Dunne, Paul Ginoux, Richard Gudgel, Lucas Harris, Matthew J. Harrison, Robert W. Hallberg, Nathaniel Johnson, Sarah B. Kapnick, Shian-Jian Lin, Feiyu Lu, Sergey Malyshev, Paul C. D. Milly, Hiroyuki Murakami, Vaishali Naik, Salvatore Pascale, David Paynter, Anthony Rosati, M. D. Schwarzkopf, Elena Shevliakova, Seth Underwood, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Baoqiang Xiang, Xiaosong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, Honghai Zhang, Liping Zhang, Ming Zhao
Prominence of the tropics in the recent rise of global nitrogen pollution
Nitrogen (N) pollution is shaped by multiple processes, the combined effects of which remain uncertain, particularly in the tropics. We use a global land biosphere model to analyze historical terrestrial-freshwater N budgets, considering the effects of anthropogenic N inputs, atmospheric CO2, land use, and climate. We estimate that globally, land currently sequesters 11 (10–13)% of annual N inputs
Authors
Minjin Lee, Elena Shevliakova, Charles A. Stock, Sergey Malyshev, Paul C. D. Milly
Hillslope hydrology in global change research and earth system modeling
Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding and predicting global change, but they cannot explicitly resolve hillslope‐scale terrain structures that fundamentally organize water, energy, and biogeochemical stores and fluxes at subgrid scales. Here we bring together hydrologists, Critical Zone scientists, and ESM developers, to explore how hillslope structures may modulate ESM
Authors
Ying Fan, Martyn Clark, David M. Lawrence, Sean Swenson, L. E. Band, S. L. Brantley, P. D. Brooks, W. E. Dietrich, A. Flores, G. Grant, J. W. Kirchner, D. S. Mackay, J.J. McDonnell, Paul C. D. Milly, P. L. Sullivan, C. Tague, H. Ajami, N. W. Chaney, A. Hartmann, P. Hazenberg, J. McNamara, J. Pelletier, J. Perket, E. Rouholahnejad-Freund, T. Wagener, X. Zeng, E. Beighley, J. Buzan, M. Huang, B. Livneh, B. P. Mohanty, B. Nijssen, M. Safeeq, C. Shen, W. van Verseveld, J. Volk, D. Yamazaki
100-year lower Mississippi floods in a global climate model: Characteristics and future changes
Floods in the Mississippi basin can have large negative societal, natural, and economic impacts. Understanding the drivers of floods, now and in the future, is relevant for risk management and infrastructure-planning purposes. We investigate the drivers of 100-yr-return lower Mississippi River floods using a global coupled climate model with an integrated surface water module. The model provides 3
Authors
Karin van der Wiel, Sarah B. Kapnick, Gabriel A. Vecchi, James A. Smith, Paul C. D. Milly, Liwei Jia
Harnessing big data to rethink land heterogeneity in Earth system models
The continual growth in the availability, detail, and wealth of environmental data provides an invaluable asset to improve the characterization of land heterogeneity in Earth system models – a persistent challenge in macroscale models. However, due to the nature of these data (volume and complexity) and computational constraints, these data are underused for global applications. As a proof of conc
Authors
Nathaniel W. Chaney, Marjolein H. J. Van Huijgevoort, Elena Shevliakova, Sergey Malyshev, Paul C. D. Milly, Paul P. G. Gauthier, Benjamin N. Sulman
Climate model assessment of changes in winter-spring streamflow timing over North America
Over regions where snow-melt runoff substantially contributes to winter-spring streamflows, warming can accelerate snow melt and reduce dry-season streamflows. However, conclusive detection of changes and attribution to anthropogenic forcing is hindered by brevity of observational records, model uncertainty, and uncertainty concerning internal variability. In this study, a detection/attribution of
Authors
Jonghun Kam, Thomas R. Knutson, Paul C. D. Milly
The GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM4.0/LM4.0: 1. Simulation characteristics with prescribed SSTs
In this two‐part paper, a description is provided of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). This version, with roughly 100 km horizontal resolution and 33 levels in the vertical, contains an aerosol model that generates aero
Authors
M. Zhao, J.-C. Golaz, I. M. Held, H. Guo, V. Balaji, R. Benson, J.-H. Chen, X. Chen, L. J. Donner, J. P. Dunne, Krista A. Dunne, J. Durachta, S.-M. Fan, S. M. Freidenreich, S. T. Garner, P. Ginoux, L. M. Harris, L. W. Horowitz, J. P. Krasting, A. R. Langenhorst, Z. Liang, P. Lin, S.-J. Lin, S. L. Malyshev, E. Mason, Paul C.D. Milly, Y. Ming, V. Naik, F. Paulot, D. Paynter, P. Phillipps, A. Radhakrishnan, V. Ramaswamy, T. Robinson, D. Schwarzkopf, C. J. Seman, Elena Shevliakova, Z. Shen, H. Shin, L. Silvers, J. R. Wilson, M. Winton, A. T. Wittenberg, B. Wyman, B. Xiang
Atmospheric Warming, Loss of Snow Cover, and Declining Colorado River Flow
Declining snow cover is playing a key role in decreasing the flow of the Colorado River, “the lifeblood of the Southwest,” by enabling increased evaporation. As the warming continues, increasingly severe water shortages are expected.
Model-Estimated, Spatially Distributed Monthly Water Balance of the Upper Colorado River Basin, Water Years 1913-2017
Dataset was generated by performing water-balance computations for the Upper Colorado River Basin for the months October 1913 through September 2017. The basin area was first divided into 17,626 4-kim grid cells, and these were then grouped by sub-basin and annual precipitation into 960 subareas; the dataset includes a lookup table for this grouping. For each of the 960 subareas, the dataset gives
Annual Streamflow Sensitivity to Air Temperature Worldwide, 1901-2013
The purpose of the dataset is to quantify the sensitivity of streamflow to air temperature at 2,673 gages around the world and to evaluate a theory for predicting that sensitivity. This is the second of two datasets containing derived data necessary to reproduce the results of the associated journal article: "On the Sensitivity of Annual Streamflow to Air Temperature," intended for publication in
Monthly Time Series of Streamflow, Precipitation, Air Temperature, and Net Radiation for 2,673 River Basins Worldwide, 1901-2013
This is the first of two datasets containing derived data necessary to reproduce the results of the associated journal article: "On the Sensitivity of Annual Streamflow to Air Temperature." This first dataset contains basic basin characteristics of 2,673 gaged basins worldwide, along with associated monthly time series of basin-mean precipitation, air temperature, and net radiation. The streamflow
Science and Products
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Filter Total Items: 31
Simulated global coastal ecosystem responses to a half-century increase in river nitrogen loads
Coastal ecosystems are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic stressors such as harmful algal blooms and hypoxia projected to intensify through the combined effects of eutrophication and warming. As a major terrestrial nitrogen (N) source to the ocean, rivers play a critical role in shaping both coastal and global biogeochemical cycling. Combining an enhanced-resolution (1/4°), global ocean phAuthorsXiao Liu, Charles A. Stock, John P. Dunne, Minjin Lee, Elena Shevliakova, Sergey Malyshev, Paul C. D. MillyPossible anthropogenic enhancement of precipitation in the Sahel-Sudan Savanna by remote agricultural irrigation
The local climatic impacts of historical expansion of irrigation are substantial, but the distant impacts are poorly understood, and their governing mechanisms generally have not been rigorously analyzed. Our experiments with an earth-system model suggest that irrigation in the Middle East and South Asia may enhance rainfall in a large portion of the Sahel-Sudan Savanna (SSS) to an extent comparabAuthorsYujin Zeng, Paul C. D. Milly, Elena Shevliakova, Sergey Malyshev, Marjolein von Huijgevoort, Krista A. DunneGlobally prevalent land nitrogen memory amplifies water pollution following drought years
Enhanced riverine delivery of terrestrial nitrogen (N) has polluted many freshwater and coastal ecosystems, degrading drinking water and marine resources. An emerging view suggests a contribution of land N memory effects—impacts of antecedent dry conditions on land N accumulation that disproportionately increase subsequent river N loads. To date, however, such effects have only been explored for sAuthorsMinjin Lee, Charles A. Stock, Elena Shevliakova, Sergey Malyshev, Paul C. D. MillyThe GFDL Earth System Model Version 4.1 (GFDL-ESM 4.1): Overall coupled model description and simulation characteristics
We describe the baseline coupled model configuration and simulation characteristics of GFDL's Earth System Model Version 4.1 (ESM4.1), which builds on component and coupled model developments at GFDL over 2013–2018 for coupled carbon-chemistry-climate simulation contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. In contrast with GFDL's CM4.0 development effort that focusAuthorsJohn P Dunne, L W Horowitz, A. Adcroft, P. Ginoux, I.M. Held, J.C.H. Johns, John P. Krasting, Sergey Malyshev, V. Naik, F. Paulot, Elena Shevliakova, C. A. Stock, N Zadeh, V. Balaji, C Blanton, C Dupuis, J. Durachta, R Dussin, Paul P. G. Gauthier, S M Griffies, Huan Guo, Robert W. Hallberg, Matthew J. Harrison, Jian He, W Hurlin, Charles W. McHugh, R Menzel, Paul C. D. Milly, S Nikonov, D. Paynter, J J Ploshay, A. Radhakrishnan, K Rand, B Reichel, T.C. Robinson, M D Schwarzkopf, L Sentman, S. Underwood, H Vahlenkamp, M. Winton, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Bruce Wyman, Yujin Zeng, Ming ZhaoColorado River flow dwindles as warming-driven loss of reflective snow energizes evaporation
The sensitivity of river discharge to climate-system warming is highly uncertain, and the processes that govern river discharge are poorly understood, which impedes climate-change adaptation. A prominent exemplar is the Colorado River, where meteorological drought and warming are shrinking a water resource that supports more than 1 trillion dollars of economic activity per year. A Monte Carlo simuAuthorsPaul C. D. Milly, Krista A. DunneSPEAR: The next generation GFDL modeling system for seasonal to multidecadal prediction and projection
We document the development and simulation characteristics of the next generation modeling system for seasonal to decadal prediction and projection at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). SPEAR (Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research) is built from component models recently developed at GFDL—the AM4 atmosphere model, MOM6 ocean code, LM4 land model, and SIS2 sea iceAuthorsThomas L. Delworth, William F. Cooke, Alistair A. Adcroft, Mitchell Bushuk, Jan-Huey Chen, Krista A. Dunne, Paul Ginoux, Richard Gudgel, Lucas Harris, Matthew J. Harrison, Robert W. Hallberg, Nathaniel Johnson, Sarah B. Kapnick, Shian-Jian Lin, Feiyu Lu, Sergey Malyshev, Paul C. D. Milly, Hiroyuki Murakami, Vaishali Naik, Salvatore Pascale, David Paynter, Anthony Rosati, M. D. Schwarzkopf, Elena Shevliakova, Seth Underwood, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Baoqiang Xiang, Xiaosong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, Honghai Zhang, Liping Zhang, Ming ZhaoProminence of the tropics in the recent rise of global nitrogen pollution
Nitrogen (N) pollution is shaped by multiple processes, the combined effects of which remain uncertain, particularly in the tropics. We use a global land biosphere model to analyze historical terrestrial-freshwater N budgets, considering the effects of anthropogenic N inputs, atmospheric CO2, land use, and climate. We estimate that globally, land currently sequesters 11 (10–13)% of annual N inputsAuthorsMinjin Lee, Elena Shevliakova, Charles A. Stock, Sergey Malyshev, Paul C. D. MillyHillslope hydrology in global change research and earth system modeling
Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding and predicting global change, but they cannot explicitly resolve hillslope‐scale terrain structures that fundamentally organize water, energy, and biogeochemical stores and fluxes at subgrid scales. Here we bring together hydrologists, Critical Zone scientists, and ESM developers, to explore how hillslope structures may modulate ESMAuthorsYing Fan, Martyn Clark, David M. Lawrence, Sean Swenson, L. E. Band, S. L. Brantley, P. D. Brooks, W. E. Dietrich, A. Flores, G. Grant, J. W. Kirchner, D. S. Mackay, J.J. McDonnell, Paul C. D. Milly, P. L. Sullivan, C. Tague, H. Ajami, N. W. Chaney, A. Hartmann, P. Hazenberg, J. McNamara, J. Pelletier, J. Perket, E. Rouholahnejad-Freund, T. Wagener, X. Zeng, E. Beighley, J. Buzan, M. Huang, B. Livneh, B. P. Mohanty, B. Nijssen, M. Safeeq, C. Shen, W. van Verseveld, J. Volk, D. Yamazaki100-year lower Mississippi floods in a global climate model: Characteristics and future changes
Floods in the Mississippi basin can have large negative societal, natural, and economic impacts. Understanding the drivers of floods, now and in the future, is relevant for risk management and infrastructure-planning purposes. We investigate the drivers of 100-yr-return lower Mississippi River floods using a global coupled climate model with an integrated surface water module. The model provides 3AuthorsKarin van der Wiel, Sarah B. Kapnick, Gabriel A. Vecchi, James A. Smith, Paul C. D. Milly, Liwei JiaHarnessing big data to rethink land heterogeneity in Earth system models
The continual growth in the availability, detail, and wealth of environmental data provides an invaluable asset to improve the characterization of land heterogeneity in Earth system models – a persistent challenge in macroscale models. However, due to the nature of these data (volume and complexity) and computational constraints, these data are underused for global applications. As a proof of concAuthorsNathaniel W. Chaney, Marjolein H. J. Van Huijgevoort, Elena Shevliakova, Sergey Malyshev, Paul C. D. Milly, Paul P. G. Gauthier, Benjamin N. SulmanClimate model assessment of changes in winter-spring streamflow timing over North America
Over regions where snow-melt runoff substantially contributes to winter-spring streamflows, warming can accelerate snow melt and reduce dry-season streamflows. However, conclusive detection of changes and attribution to anthropogenic forcing is hindered by brevity of observational records, model uncertainty, and uncertainty concerning internal variability. In this study, a detection/attribution ofAuthorsJonghun Kam, Thomas R. Knutson, Paul C. D. MillyThe GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM4.0/LM4.0: 1. Simulation characteristics with prescribed SSTs
In this two‐part paper, a description is provided of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). This version, with roughly 100 km horizontal resolution and 33 levels in the vertical, contains an aerosol model that generates aeroAuthorsM. Zhao, J.-C. Golaz, I. M. Held, H. Guo, V. Balaji, R. Benson, J.-H. Chen, X. Chen, L. J. Donner, J. P. Dunne, Krista A. Dunne, J. Durachta, S.-M. Fan, S. M. Freidenreich, S. T. Garner, P. Ginoux, L. M. Harris, L. W. Horowitz, J. P. Krasting, A. R. Langenhorst, Z. Liang, P. Lin, S.-J. Lin, S. L. Malyshev, E. Mason, Paul C.D. Milly, Y. Ming, V. Naik, F. Paulot, D. Paynter, P. Phillipps, A. Radhakrishnan, V. Ramaswamy, T. Robinson, D. Schwarzkopf, C. J. Seman, Elena Shevliakova, Z. Shen, H. Shin, L. Silvers, J. R. Wilson, M. Winton, A. T. Wittenberg, B. Wyman, B. Xiang - Science
Atmospheric Warming, Loss of Snow Cover, and Declining Colorado River Flow
Declining snow cover is playing a key role in decreasing the flow of the Colorado River, “the lifeblood of the Southwest,” by enabling increased evaporation. As the warming continues, increasingly severe water shortages are expected. - Data
Model-Estimated, Spatially Distributed Monthly Water Balance of the Upper Colorado River Basin, Water Years 1913-2017
Dataset was generated by performing water-balance computations for the Upper Colorado River Basin for the months October 1913 through September 2017. The basin area was first divided into 17,626 4-kim grid cells, and these were then grouped by sub-basin and annual precipitation into 960 subareas; the dataset includes a lookup table for this grouping. For each of the 960 subareas, the dataset givesAnnual Streamflow Sensitivity to Air Temperature Worldwide, 1901-2013
The purpose of the dataset is to quantify the sensitivity of streamflow to air temperature at 2,673 gages around the world and to evaluate a theory for predicting that sensitivity. This is the second of two datasets containing derived data necessary to reproduce the results of the associated journal article: "On the Sensitivity of Annual Streamflow to Air Temperature," intended for publication inMonthly Time Series of Streamflow, Precipitation, Air Temperature, and Net Radiation for 2,673 River Basins Worldwide, 1901-2013
This is the first of two datasets containing derived data necessary to reproduce the results of the associated journal article: "On the Sensitivity of Annual Streamflow to Air Temperature." This first dataset contains basic basin characteristics of 2,673 gaged basins worldwide, along with associated monthly time series of basin-mean precipitation, air temperature, and net radiation. The streamflow - News