Rob Thieler, PhD
I work on a variety of topics including coastal change hazards, sea-level rise impacts, continental shelf sedimentation, and applications of web and smartphone technology to coastal problems.
Dr. Rob Thieler is the Center Director of the U.S. Geological Survey's Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center in Woods Hole, Massachusetts. Rob conducts marine geologic research on the geologic framework and evolution of the coastal zone. This includes understanding relationships between geology, sediment transport, climate and sea-level change, and coastal erosion. Rob has conducted assessments of sea-level rise vulnerability for the U.S. and locations worldwide. He served as a Lead Author of a U.S. Global Change Research Program report on potential impacts of sea-level rise, and works with many federal and state agencies to develop science and policy plans for addressing coastal change hazards. Rob also studies habitat use and availability for beach-nesting and migratory shorebirds. Rob developed the widely-used DSAS software package for measuring coastal erosion and accretion and has recently developed smartphone applications for coastal science.
Research Interests
Coastal Change Assessment
I have a longstanding interest in coastal change assessment, particularly historical shoreline change. This includes developing new data, knowledge and tools (particularly the Digital Shoreline Analysis System, DSAS) that are widely used by the scientific community to document and interpret patterns of shoreline movement in response to changes in forcing, geologic constraints, and anthropogenic manipulation, as well as the coastal management community (many states use historical erosion rates as a basis for building setback laws or other policy). Major research questions include what statistical techniques adequately address the problems of nonlinear and non-uniform shoreline movement, trend reversals, and short-term variability that increase the magnitude of error in quantitative analyses. There are also important questions regarding the spatial variability of shoreline movement at different temporal scales. All of these issues are important when developing coastal hazard forecasts and informing coastal management decisions. Much of this information is derived and applied at a nationwide scale through our National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project, and delivered through our Coastal Change Hazards web portal.
Sea-level Rise Hazards
My colleagues and I conduct research to assess the potential impacts of sea-level rise on coastal evolution and provide tools for coastal management decision making. Historical and recent observations of coastal environments and rates of change are combined with model simulations of coastal environments such as barrier islands and coastal aquifers.
Continental Shelf Geologic Processes
Part of my research involves continental shelf processes such as modern sedimentation, and placing the geologic record preserved in
Professional Experience
2017-Present, Center Director, U.S. Geological Survey Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center
Education and Certifications
Ph.D., 1997, Geology, Duke University
M.S., 1993, Environmental Science, Duke University
B.A., 1987, Political Science, Certificate in Environmental Studies, Dickinson College
Abstracts and Presentations
2021 Eos, Science News by AGU Cape Cod: Shipwrecks, Dune Shacks, and Shifting Sands
2020 The Christian Science Monitor How one science hub grapples with diversifying STEM
2017 College of Wooster Osgood Memorial Lecture
2016 New York Times Strategic Retreat on Cape Cod
2015 Cape Cod Times Cape Wearing Away
2015 Cape Cod Times Sea-level Rise on Cape Cod Op-Ed
Science and Products
Evaluating coastal landscape response to sea-level rise in the northeastern United States: approach and methods
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration hydrographic survey data used in a U.S. Geological Survey regional geologic framework study along the Delmarva Peninsula
Using a Bayesian Network to predict shore-line change vulnerability to sea-level rise for the coasts of the United States
A Bayesian network approach to predicting nest presence of thefederally-threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus) using barrier island features
The National assessment of shoreline shange—A GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the Pacific Northwest coast
Effects of sea-level rise on barrier island groundwater system dynamics: ecohydrological implications
Massachusetts shoreline change project: a GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the 2013 update
Assessing hazards along our Nation's coasts
Carolinas Coastal Change Processes Project data report for nearshore observations at Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
Bridging groundwater models and decision support with a Bayesian network
Quaternary geophysical framework of the northeastern North Carolina coastal system
Massachusetts Shoreline Change Mapping and Analysis Project, 2013 Update
Science and Products
- Science
- Data
- Maps
- Publications
Filter Total Items: 121
Evaluating coastal landscape response to sea-level rise in the northeastern United States: approach and methods
The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, inclAuthorsErika E. Lentz, Sawyer R. Stippa, E. Robert Thieler, Nathaniel G. Plant, Dean B. Gesch, Radley M. HortonNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration hydrographic survey data used in a U.S. Geological Survey regional geologic framework study along the Delmarva Peninsula
The U.S. Geological Survey initiated a research effort in 2014 to define the geologic framework of the Delmarva Peninsula inner continental shelf, which included new data collection and assembly of relevant extant datasets. Between 2006 and 2011, Science Applications International Corporation, under contract to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Ocean Service, carried outAuthorsElizabeth A. Pendleton, Laura L. Brothers, E. Robert Thieler, William W. Danforth, Castle E. ParkerUsing a Bayesian Network to predict shore-line change vulnerability to sea-level rise for the coasts of the United States
Sea-level rise is an ongoing phenomenon that is expected to continue and is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments and infrastructure during the 21st century and beyond. Consequently, there is a need to assemble relevant datasets and to develop modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate the likelihood of particular sea-level rise impacts, such as coastal erosionAuthorsBenjamin T. Gutierrez, Nathaniel G. Plant, Elizabeth A. Pendleton, E. Robert ThielerA Bayesian network approach to predicting nest presence of thefederally-threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus) using barrier island features
Sea-level rise and human development pose significant threats to shorebirds, particularly for species that utilize barrier island habitat. The piping plover (Charadrius melodus) is a federally-listed shorebird that nests on barrier islands and rapidly responds to changes in its physical environment, making it an excellent species with which to model how shorebird species may respond to habitat chAuthorsKatherina D. Gieder, Sarah M. Karpanty, James D. Fraser, Daniel H. Catlin, Benjamin T. Gutierrez, Nathaniel G. Plant, Aaron M. Turecek, E. Robert ThielerThe National assessment of shoreline shange—A GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the Pacific Northwest coast
Sandy ocean beaches are a popular recreational destination and are often surrounded by communities that consist of valuable real estate. Development along sandy coastal areas is increasing despite the fact that coastal infrastructure may be repeatedly subjected to flooding and erosion. As a result, the demand for accurate information regarding past and present shoreline changes is increasing. InveAuthorsMeredith G. Kratzmann, Emily A. Himmelstoss, Peter Ruggiero, E. Robert Thieler, David ReidEffects of sea-level rise on barrier island groundwater system dynamics: ecohydrological implications
We used a numerical model to investigate how a barrier island groundwater system responds to increases of up to 60 cm in sea level. We found that a sea-level rise of 20 cm leads to substantial changes in the depth of the water table and the extent and depth of saltwater intrusion, which are key determinants in the establishment, distribution and succession of vegetation assemblages and habitat suiAuthorsJohn P. Masterson, Michael N. Fienen, E. Robert Thieler, Dean B. Gesch, Benjamin T. Gutierrez, Nathaniel G. PlantMassachusetts shoreline change project: a GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the 2013 update
Identifying the rates and trends associated with the position of the shoreline through time presents vital information on potential impacts these changes may have on coastal populations and infrastructure, and supports informed coastal management decisions. This report publishes the historical shoreline data used to assess the scale and timing of erosion and accretion along the Massachusetts coastAuthorsTheresa L. Smith, Emily A. Himmelstoss, E. Robert ThielerAssessing hazards along our Nation's coasts
Coastal areas are essential to the economic, cultural, and environmental health of the Nation, yet by nature coastal areas are constantly changing due to a variety of events and processes. Extreme storms can cause dramatic changes to our shorelines in a matter of hours, while sea-level rise can profoundly alter coastal environments over decades. These changes can have a devastating impact on coastAuthorsHilary F. Stockdon, Cheryl J. Hapke, E. Robert Thieler, Nathaniel G. PlantCarolinas Coastal Change Processes Project data report for nearshore observations at Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
An oceanographic field study conducted in February 2010 investigated processes that control nearshore flow and sediment transport dynamics at Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This report describes the project background, field program, instrumentation setup, and locations of the sensor deployments. The data collected, and supporting meteorological and streamflow observations, are presented as time-sAuthorsBrandy N. Armstrong, John C. Warner, George Voulgaris, Jeffrey H. List, Robert Thieler, Marinna A. Martini, Ellyn T. Montgomery, Jesse E. McNinch, Jeffrey W. Book, Kevin HaasBridging groundwater models and decision support with a Bayesian network
Resource managers need to make decisions to plan for future environmental conditions, particularly sea level rise, in the face of substantial uncertainty. Many interacting processes factor in to the decisions they face. Advances in process models and the quantification of uncertainty have made models a valuable tool for this purpose. Long-simulation runtimes and, often, numerical instability makeAuthorsMichael N. Fienen, John P. Masterson, Nathaniel G. Plant, Benjamin T. Gutierrez, E. Robert ThielerQuaternary geophysical framework of the northeastern North Carolina coastal system
The northeastern North Carolina coastal system, from False Cape, Virginia, to Cape Lookout, North Carolina, has been studied by a cooperative research program that mapped the Quaternary geologic framework of the estuaries, barrier islands, and inner continental shelf. This information provides a basis to understand the linkage between geologic framework, physical processes, and coastal evolution aAuthorsE. R. Thieler, D. S. Foster, D. J. Mallinson, E. A. Himmelstoss, J. E. McNinch, J. H. List, E. S. Hammar-KloseMassachusetts Shoreline Change Mapping and Analysis Project, 2013 Update
Information on rates and trends of shoreline change can be used to improve the understanding of the underlying causes and potential effects of coastal erosion on coastal populations and infrastructure and can support informed coastal management decisions. In this report, we summarize the changes in the historical positions of the shoreline of the Massachusetts coast for the 165 years from 1844 thrAuthorsE. Robert Thieler, Theresa L. Smith, Julia M. Knisel, Daniel W. Sampson - Software
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