Susan Skagen, Ph.D. (Former Employee)
Science and Products
Informing the Identification of Economically Effective Targets for Grassland Conservation in the Dakotas
The conversion of grassland to cropland in the Dakotas could imperil wildlife such as nesting waterfowl and contribute to the degradation of water quality in the Mississippi River watershed. However, high crop prices in recent years have contributed to a high rate of grassland to cropland conversion on private lands. In addition to these economic factors, changes in climate could exacerbate...
Webinar: Application of High Resolution Climate Models to Benefit Avian Conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region, Northern Great Plains
View this webinar to learn more about climate change impacts on small prairie wetland ecosystems.
Mining the USGS Data Landscape
The scientific legacy of the USGS is the data and the scientific knowledge derived from it gathered over 130 years of research. However, it is widely assumed, and in some cases known, that high quality data, particularly legacy data critical for large time-scale analyses such as climate change and habitat change, is hidden away in case files, file cabinets, and hard drives housed in USGS...
Assessing the Vulnerability of Grassland Bird Populations to Climate Change
Prairie ecosystems and the grassland birds that rely on them for habitat may be particularly vulnerable to rapid changes in climate. Extensive portions of prairie have already been lost due to agriculture and urbanization, and as a result grassland birds have declined more than any other bird group in the last four decades. Now, climate change could exacerbate existing threats to these birds...
Understanding How Climate and Land Use Change Will Impact Wetland-Dependent Birds: Are Waterfowl Effective Surrogates for Other Species?
The Prairie Pothole Region spans parts of North and South Dakota, Minnesota, Montana, Iowa and south-central Canada and contains millions of wetlands that provide habitat for breeding and migrating birds. Because it is the continent’s most important breeding area for waterfowl, conservation and management largely focuses on protecting habitat for nesting ducks. However, other wetland-dependent...
Understanding the Links Between Climate, Ecosystem Processes, Wetland Management, and Bird Communities in the Prairie Pothole Region of the Northern Great Plains
In semi-arid regions, riparian and wetland ecosystems function as important migratory and breeding habitats and add significantly to local and regional biodiversity; however, these ecosystems are increasingly threatened by climate change and the potential synergistic effects of increasing demand for water and invasion by exotic species. As a continuation of our inaugural USGS National Climate...
Projected Impacts of Future Climate on Bird Conservation in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions
Tens of millions of migratory birds are dependent on wetland and riparian stopovers in arid and semiarid regions of North America. Global climate change would superimpose even greater stress on these ecosystems as indicated by climate change model predictions of higher temperatures and less precipitation in the southwestern United States. In partnership with the University of Arizona, the...
Clustering and ensembling approaches to support surrogate-based species management
AimSurrogate species can provide an efficient mechanism for biodiversity conservation if they encompass the needs or indicate the status of a broader set of species. When species that are the focus of ongoing management efforts act as effective surrogates for other species, these incidental surrogacy benefits lead to additional efficiency....
Sofaer, Helen; Flather, Curtis H.; Skagen, Susan K.; Steen, Valerie; Noon, Barry R. Reproductive response of Arizona Grasshopper Sparrows to weather patterns and habitat structure
Avian species endemic to desert grasslands of North America contend with significant ecological challenges, including monsoonal rains, droughts, and variable temperatures. These birds have evolved physiological and behavioral means of coping with such extremes, but ongoing changes to temperature and precipitation patterns are affecting their...
Ruth, Janet M.; Skagen, Susan K. Semi-arid grassland bird responses to patch-burn grazing and drought
As grassland birds of central North America experience steep population declines with changes in land use, management of remaining tracts becomes increasingly important for population viability. The integrated use of fire and grazing may enhance vegetation heterogeneity and diversity in breeding birds, but the subsequent effects on reproduction...
Skagen, Susan K.; Augustine, David J.; Derner, Justin D. Preparing for an uncertain future: Migrating shorebird response to past climatic fluctuations in the Prairie Potholes
The Prairie Pothole Region, situated in the northern Great Plains, provides important stopover habitat for migratory shorebirds. During spring migration in the U.S. Prairie Potholes, 7.3 million shorebirds refuel in the region's myriad small, freshwater wetlands. Shorebirds use mudflats, shorelines, and ephemeral wetlands that are far more...
Steen, Valerie A.; Skagen, Susan K.; Noon, Barry R. Projecting species’ vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?
Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill...
Steen, Valerie; Sofaer, Helen; Skagen, Susan K.; Ray, Andrea J.; Noon, Barry R. Territory and nest site selection patterns by Grasshopper Sparrows in southeastern Arizona
Grassland bird populations are showing some of the greatest rates of decline of any North American birds, prompting measures to protect and improve important habitat. We assessed how vegetation structure and composition, habitat features often targeted for management, affected territory and nest site selection by Grasshopper Sparrows (Ammodramus...
Ruth, Janet M.; Skagen, Susan K. Weather radar data correlate to hail-induced mortality in grassland birds
Small-bodied terrestrial animals such as songbirds (Order Passeriformes) are especially vulnerable to hail-induced mortality; yet, hail events are challenging to predict, and they often occur in locations where populations are not being studied. Focusing on nesting grassland songbirds, we demonstrate a novel approach to estimate hail-induced...
Carver, Amber; Ross, Jeremy D.; Augustine, David J.; Skagen, Susan K.; Dwyer, Angela M.; Tomback, Diana F.; Wunder, Michael B. Modeling nonbreeding distributions of shorebirds and waterfowl in response to climate change
To identify areas on the landscape that may contribute to a robust network of conservation areas, we modeled the probabilities of occurrence of several en route migratory shorebirds and wintering waterfowl in the southern Great Plains of North America, including responses to changing climate. We predominantly used data from the eBird citizen-...
Reese, Gordon C.; Skagen, Susan K. Projected wetland densities under climate change: Habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy
Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species’ vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate...
Sofaer, Helen; Skagen, Susan K.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Rashford, Benjamin S.; Reese, Gordon C.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Wood, Andrew W.; Noon, Barry R. Implications of climate change for wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region
The habitats and food resources required to support breeding and migrant birds dependent on North American prairie wetlands are threatened by impending climate change. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) hosts nearly 120 species of wetland-dependent birds representing 21 families. Strategic management requires knowledge of avian...
Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K.; Melcher, Cynthia P. Vulnerability of shortgrass prairie bird assemblages to climate change
The habitats and resources needed to support grassland birds endemic to North American prairie ecosystems are seriously threatened by impending climate change. To assess the vulnerability of grassland birds to climate change, we consider various components of vulnerability, including sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity (Glick et al. 2011...
Knuffman, Lekha; Skagen, Susan K.; Dreitz, Victoria; Conrey, Reesa Y.; Yackel, Amy; Panjabi, Arvind O. Extremes of heat, drought and precipitation depress reproductive performance in shortgrass prairie passerines
Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it is likely to exacerbate many identified threats to animal populations. In recent decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American bird species, a loss thought to be due to habitat loss and fragmentation and changing agricultural practices. Climate change...
Conrey, Reesa Y.; Skagen, Susan K.; Yackel, Amy; Panjabi, Arvind O.