Toni Lyn Morelli, Ph.D.
Toni Lyn Morelli is a Research Ecologist at the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, where she uses field studies, ecological modeling, genetics, and translational ecology to help resource managers conserve species in the face of global change.
Toni Lyn grew up near Detroit and received a B.S. in Zoology from Michigan State University. For her Ph.D. at Stony Brook University, she studied lemur behavior, ecology, and genetics in Madagascar. After her Ph.D., Toni Lyn worked as a postdoctoral fellow at UC Berkeley to understand how climate change had affected small mammals and montane meadows over the last century. She has also worked for the U.S. Forest Service, both as a research ecologist at the Pacific Southwest Research Station and as the Technical Advisor to the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Toni Lyn uses translational ecology, species distribution modeling, occupancy modeling, geospatial analysis, population and landscape genetics techniques, and decision analysis to facilitate natural resource management and habitat and species conservation in the face of climate and land use change and invasive species. Current projects include studying the impacts of climate change in boreal ecosystems; helping the National Park Service update its taxonomy and analyze citizen science data; organizing a continent-wide network on Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management; and a continued focus on operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia.
Education and Certifications
Ph.D., Stony Brook University
B.S. in Zoology, Michigan State University
Affiliations and Memberships*
Member of the USGS EMA DEIA Leadership Council, 2022
Member of the NECASC Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Committee, 2021-2022
Leader of the USGS CASC DEIA Recruitment and Retention Working Group, 2021-2022
Member of the USGS CASC Diversity, Equity, Inclusion and Accessibility (DEIA) Leadership Council, 2020-2022
Co-Leader of the CASC Inclusive Mentoring Working Group, 2021-2022
Associate Editor for Conservation Science & Practice, 2018-2022; recognized as 1 of 2 top CSP AEs
Member of the American Geophysical Union
Member of The Ecological Society of America
Member of the Society of Conservation Biology
Member of The Wildlife Society
Honors and Awards
Association of Fish & Wildlife Agencies Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Broad Participation (to NE Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management Network)
University of Massachusetts Department of Environmental Conservation (ECo) Inaugural Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Justice Faculty Award, 2021
USFWS Species Support Partnership (NE Region) Research Grant, 2021-2023
USGS Natural Resources Preservation Program (NE Region) Research Grant, 2019-21
USGS Ecosystems Mission Area Invasive Species Program Research Grant, 2020-2022
National Climate Adaptation Science Center Research Grant (co-I), 2020-2022
Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center Research Grant, 2019-2020
USGS-NPS Natural Resource Preservation Partnership, 2019-2020
Second Century Stewardship Fellowship 2018 (Postdoctoral Supervisee)
Community for Data Integration, USGS, 2017 (Co-PI)
Community for Data Integration, USGS, 2018 (Co-PI)
National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants 2017 Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Natural Resources (awarded to the Massachusetts Wildlife Climate Action Tool Partnership)
YES Internship Awards (x2), USGS, 2017
USGS STAR Award, 2016
National Park Service Grant, Bioblitz Analysis, 2016
Science and Products
Validating climate‐change refugia: Empirical bottom‐up approaches to support management actions
Climate‐change refugia: Biodiversity in the slow lane
Examining the mechanisms of species responses to climate change: Are there biological thresholds?
Do empirical observations support commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses? A systematic review protocol
Adjusting the lens of invasion biology to focus on the impacts of climate-driven range shifts
Gardening with climate-smart native plants in the Northeast
Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States
Multi‐species occupancy models: Review, roadmap, and recommendations
Nuisance Neonatives Guidelines for Assessing Range-Shifting Species
Final Report for Phase 1 - USGS-NE CSC and USFS-NRS Cooperative Research on Climate-Vulnerable Habitats and Species in the Northeast
Local climate determines vulnerability to camouflage mismatch in snowshoe hares
The fate of Madagascar's rainforest habitat
Science and Products
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Validating climate‐change refugia: Empirical bottom‐up approaches to support management actions
Efforts to conserve biodiversity increasingly focus on identifying climate‐change refugia – areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable species persistence. Identification of refugia typically includes modeling the distribution of a species’ current habitat and then extrapolating that distribution given projected changes in temperature and precipitation, or byAuthorsCameron W. Barrows, Aaron R. Ramirez, Lynn C. Sweet, Toni Lyn Morelli, Constance I. Millar, Neil Frakes, Jane Rodgers, Mary Frances MahalovichClimate‐change refugia: Biodiversity in the slow lane
Climate‐change adaptation focuses on conducting and translating research to minimize the dire impacts of anthropogenic climate change, including threats to biodiversity and human welfare. One adaptation strategy is to focus conservation on climate‐change refugia (that is, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, anAuthorsToni Lyn Morelli, Cameron W. Barrows, Aaron R. Ramirez, Jennifer M. Cartwright, David D. Ackerly, Tatiana D. Eaves, Joseph L. Ebersole, Meg A. Krawchuk, Benjamin Letcher, Mary Frances Mahalovich, Garrett Meigs, Julia Michalak, Constance I. Millar, Rebecca M. Quinones, Diana Stralberg, James H. ThorneExamining the mechanisms of species responses to climate change: Are there biological thresholds?
Climate-change-driven shifts in distribution and abundance have been documented in many species. However, in order to better predict species responses, managers are seeking to understand the mechanisms that are driving these changes, including any thresholds that might soon be crossed. Leveraging the research that has already been supported by the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center and iAuthorsWilliam DeLuca, Thomas W. Bonnot, Alexej P. K. Siren, Radley M. Horton, Curtice R. Griffin, Toni Lyn MorelliDo empirical observations support commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses? A systematic review protocol
Background Among the most widely anticipated climate-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution in response to changing climate conditions. In particular, a series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged: species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in responAuthorsMadeleine A. Rubenstein, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Shawn Carter, Mitchell Eaton, Ciara Johnson, Abigail Lynch, Brian W. Miller, Toni Lyn Morelli, Mari Angel Rodriguez, Adam Terando, Laura ThompsonAdjusting the lens of invasion biology to focus on the impacts of climate-driven range shifts
As Earth’s climate rapidly changes, species range shifts are considered key to species persistence. However, some range-shifting species will alter community structure and ecosystem processes. By adapting existing invasion risk assessment frameworks, we can identify characteristics shared with high-impact introductions and thus predict potential impacts. There are fundamental differences between iAuthorsPiper D. Wallingford, Toni Lyn Morelli, Jenica M. Allen, Evelyn M. Beaury, Dana M. Blumenthal, Bethany A. Bradley, Jeffrey S. Dukes, Regan Early, Emily J. Fusco, Deborah E. Goldberg, Ines Ibanez, Brittany B. Laginhas, Montserrat Vila, Cascade J. B. SorteGardening with climate-smart native plants in the Northeast
No abstract available.AuthorsBethany A. Bradley, A. Bayer, Bridget Griffin, Sydni Joubran, Brittany B. Laginhas, Lara Munro, Sam Talbot, Jenica M. Allen, Audrey Barker-Plotkin, Evelyn M. Beaury, Carrie Brown-Lima, Emily J. Fusco, Hailey Mount, Bailey Servais, Toni Lyn MorelliClimate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States
Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity,AuthorsSarah R. Weiskopf, Madeleine A. Rubenstein, Lisa Crozier, Sarah Gaichas, Roger Griffis, Jessica E. Halofsky, Kimberly J. W. Hyde, Toni Lyn Morelli, Jeffrey T. Morisette, Roldan C. Muñoz, Andrew J. Pershing, David L. Peterson, Rajendra Poudel, Michelle D. Staudinger, Ariana E. Sutton-Grier, Laura Thompson, James Vose, Jake Weltzin, Kyle Powys WhyteMulti‐species occupancy models: Review, roadmap, and recommendations
Recent technological and methodological advances have revolutionized wildlife monitoring. Although most biodiversity monitoring initiatives are geared towards focal species of conservation concern, researchers are increasingly studying entire communities, specifically the spatiotemporal drivers of community size and structure and interactions among species. This has resulted in the emergence of muAuthorsKadambari Devarajan, Simone Tenan, Toni Lyn MorelliNuisance Neonatives Guidelines for Assessing Range-Shifting Species
Native species will need to shift their ranges northward and upslope to keep pace with climate change in the Northeast U.S. However, this may cause some range-shifting species to have undesirable consequences in their expanded range. We provide a framework to identify the likelihood that a range-shifting species will become problematic and offer suggestions to minimize impacts from these species iAuthorsBrittany B. Laginhas, Toni Lyn Morelli, Audrey Barker-Plotkin, Evelyn M. Beaury, Elsa Cousins, Sydni Joubran, Michael Nelson, Sam Talbot, Bethany A. BradleyFinal Report for Phase 1 - USGS-NE CSC and USFS-NRS Cooperative Research on Climate-Vulnerable Habitats and Species in the Northeast
The US Forest Service (USFS) and Northeast Climate (Adaptation) Science Center (NE CASC) came together to focus research and management cooperation on the topic of the impacts of climate change on forested ecosystems. This work had 3 primary components: 1) modeling headwater stream refugia; 2) investigating resilience and resistance strategies for New England forests; and 3) studying the impact ofAuthorsKeith Nislow, Toni Lyn MorelliLocal climate determines vulnerability to camouflage mismatch in snowshoe hares
AimPhenological mismatches, when life‐events become mistimed with optimal environmental conditions, have become increasingly common under climate change. Population‐level susceptibility to mismatches depends on how phenology and phenotypic plasticity vary across a species’ distributional range. Here, we quantify the environmental drivers of colour moult phenology, phenotypic plasticity, and the exAuthorsMarketa Zimova, Alexej P. K. Siren, Joshua J. Nowak, Alexander Bryan, Jacob S. Ivan, Toni Lyn Morelli, Skyler L. Suhrer, Jesse Whittington, L. Scott MillsThe fate of Madagascar's rainforest habitat
Madagascar has experienced extensive deforestation and overharvesting, and anthropogenic climate change will compound these pressures. Anticipating these threats to endangered species and their ecosystems requires considering both climate change and habitat loss effects. The genus Varecia (ruffed lemurs), which is composed of two Critically Endangered forest-obligate species, can serve as a statusAuthorsToni Lyn Morelli, Adam B. Smith, Amanda N. Mancini, Elizabeth A. Balko, Cortni Borgerson, Rainer Dolch, Zachary Farris, Sarah Federman, Christopher Golden, Sheila Holmes, Mitchell Irwin, Rachel Jacobs, Steig Johnson, Tony King, Shawn Lehman, Edward E. Louis, Asia Murphy, Hery N. T. Randriahaingo, H. L. Lucien Randrianarimanana, Jonah Ratsimbazafy, Onja H. Razafindratsima, Andrea Baden - News
*Disclaimer: Listing outside positions with professional scientific organizations on this Staff Profile are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an endorsement of those professional scientific organizations or their activities by the USGS, Department of the Interior, or U.S. Government