Toni Lyn Morelli, Ph.D.
Toni Lyn Morelli is a Research Ecologist at the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, where she uses field studies, ecological modeling, genetics, and translational ecology to help resource managers conserve species in the face of global change.
Toni Lyn grew up near Detroit and received a B.S. in Zoology from Michigan State University. For her Ph.D. at Stony Brook University, she studied lemur behavior, ecology, and genetics in Madagascar. After her Ph.D., Toni Lyn worked as a postdoctoral fellow at UC Berkeley to understand how climate change had affected small mammals and montane meadows over the last century. She has also worked for the U.S. Forest Service, both as a research ecologist at the Pacific Southwest Research Station and as the Technical Advisor to the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Toni Lyn uses translational ecology, species distribution modeling, occupancy modeling, geospatial analysis, population and landscape genetics techniques, and decision analysis to facilitate natural resource management and habitat and species conservation in the face of climate and land use change and invasive species. Current projects include studying the impacts of climate change in boreal ecosystems; helping the National Park Service update its taxonomy and analyze citizen science data; organizing a continent-wide network on Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management; and a continued focus on operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia.
Education and Certifications
Ph.D., Stony Brook University
B.S. in Zoology, Michigan State University
Affiliations and Memberships*
Member of the USGS EMA DEIA Leadership Council, 2022
Member of the NECASC Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Committee, 2021-2022
Leader of the USGS CASC DEIA Recruitment and Retention Working Group, 2021-2022
Member of the USGS CASC Diversity, Equity, Inclusion and Accessibility (DEIA) Leadership Council, 2020-2022
Co-Leader of the CASC Inclusive Mentoring Working Group, 2021-2022
Associate Editor for Conservation Science & Practice, 2018-2022; recognized as 1 of 2 top CSP AEs
Member of the American Geophysical Union
Member of The Ecological Society of America
Member of the Society of Conservation Biology
Member of The Wildlife Society
Honors and Awards
Association of Fish & Wildlife Agencies Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Broad Participation (to NE Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management Network)
University of Massachusetts Department of Environmental Conservation (ECo) Inaugural Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Justice Faculty Award, 2021
USFWS Species Support Partnership (NE Region) Research Grant, 2021-2023
USGS Natural Resources Preservation Program (NE Region) Research Grant, 2019-21
USGS Ecosystems Mission Area Invasive Species Program Research Grant, 2020-2022
National Climate Adaptation Science Center Research Grant (co-I), 2020-2022
Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center Research Grant, 2019-2020
USGS-NPS Natural Resource Preservation Partnership, 2019-2020
Second Century Stewardship Fellowship 2018 (Postdoctoral Supervisee)
Community for Data Integration, USGS, 2017 (Co-PI)
Community for Data Integration, USGS, 2018 (Co-PI)
National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants 2017 Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Natural Resources (awarded to the Massachusetts Wildlife Climate Action Tool Partnership)
YES Internship Awards (x2), USGS, 2017
USGS STAR Award, 2016
National Park Service Grant, Bioblitz Analysis, 2016
Science and Products
Interactive range‐limit theory (iRLT): An extension for predicting range shifts
Finding the sweet spot: Shifting climate optima for maple syrup production in North America
Incorporating climate change into invasive species management: Insights from managers
Climate change refugia
New England and northern New York forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: A report from the New England Climate Change Response Framework project
Final report for climate effects on the culture and ecology of sugar maple
Looking beyond wildlife: Using remote cameras to evaluate accuracy of gridded snow data
Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity
Climate change refugia and habitat connectivity promote species persistence
Navigating translational ecology: Creating opportunities for scientist participation
Balancing research and service to decision makers
Foundations of translational ecology
Science and Products
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Filter Total Items: 56
Interactive range‐limit theory (iRLT): An extension for predicting range shifts
A central theme of range‐limit theory (RLT) posits that abiotic factors form high‐latitude/altitude limits, whereas biotic interactions create lower limits. This hypothesis, often credited to Charles Darwin, is a pattern widely assumed to occur in nature. However, abiotic factors can impose constraints on both limits and there is scant evidence to support the latter prediction. Deviations from theAuthorsAlexej P. K. Siren, Toni Lyn MorelliFinding the sweet spot: Shifting climate optima for maple syrup production in North America
Climate change is affecting the benefits society derives from forests. One such forest ecosystem service is maple syrup, which is primarily derived from Acer saccharum (sugar maple), currently an abundant and widespread tree species in eastern North America. Two climate sensitive components of sap affect syrup production: sugar content and sap flow. The sugar in maple sap derives from carbohydraAuthorsJoshua M. Rapp, David A. Lutz, Ryan H. Huish, Boris Dufour, Selena Ahmed, Toni Lyn Morelli, Kristina A. StinsonIncorporating climate change into invasive species management: Insights from managers
Invasive alien species are likely to interact with climate change, thus necessitating management that proactively addresses both global changes. However, invasive species managers’ concerns about the effects of climate change, the degree to which they incorporate climate change into their management, and what stops them from doing so remain unknown. Therefore, we surveyed natural resource managersAuthorsEvelyn M. Beaury, Emily J. Fusco, Michelle R. Jackson, Brittany B. Laginhas, Toni Lyn Morelli, Jenica M. Allen, Valerie J. Pasquarella, Bethany A. BradleyClimate change refugia
Climate change is affecting the distribution, abundance, and persistence of species and ecosystems around the world. As natural resource managers are tasked with maintaining and protecting species and ecosystems from the effects of a changing climate, options for minimizing impacts are needed. Options for climate adaptation—the policy and management actions taken to minimize negative effects of clAuthorsToni Lyn Morelli, Connie MillarNew England and northern New York forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: A report from the New England Climate Change Response Framework project
Forest ecosystems will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems across the New England region (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, northern New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont) under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscapeAuthorsM.K. Janowiak, A D’Amato, C.W. Swanston, Louis R. Iverson, Frank R. Thompson, William D. Dijak, Stephen Matthews, Matthew P. Peters, Anantha Prasad, Jacob S. Fraser, Leslie A. Brandt, Patricia R. Butler-Leopold, Stephen D. Handler, P. Danielle Shannon, Diane Burbank, John Campbell, Charles Cogbill, Matthew J. Duveneck, Marla R. Emery, Nicholas Fisichelli, Jane Foster, Jennifer Hushaw, Laura Kenefic, Amanda Mahaffey, Toni Lyn Morelli, Nicholas Reo, Paul G. Schaberg, K. Rogers Simmons, Aaron Weiskittel, Sandy Wilmot, David Hollinger, Erin Lane, Lindsey Rustad, Pamela H. TemplarFinal report for climate effects on the culture and ecology of sugar maple
Maple syrup is produced from the sap of sugar maple trees collected in the late winter and early spring. Native American tribes have collected and boiled down sap for centuries, and the tapping of maple trees is a cultural touchstone for many people in the northeast and Midwest. Because the tapping season is dependent on weather conditions, there is concern about the sustainability of maple sugariAuthorsToni Lyn Morelli, Kristina A. StinsonLooking beyond wildlife: Using remote cameras to evaluate accuracy of gridded snow data
The use of remote cameras is widespread in wildlife ecology, yet few examples exist of their utility for collecting environmental data. We used a novel camera trap method to evaluate the accuracy of gridded snow data in a mountainous region of the northeastern US. We were specifically interested in assessing (1) how snow depth observations from remote cameras compare with gridded climate data, (2)AuthorsAlexej P.K. Sirén, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Catherine Callahan, Jillian R. Kilborn, Timothy Duclos, Cassie Tragert, Toni Lyn MorelliEcosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity
Biodiversity—the variety of life on Earth—provides vital services that support and improve human health and well-being. Ecosystems, which are composed of living things that interact with the physical environment, provide numerous essential benefits to people. These benefits, termed ecosystem services, encompass four primary functions: provisioning materials, such as food and fiber; regulating critAuthorsDouglas Lipton, Madeleine A. Rubenstein, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Shawn L. Carter, Jay Peterson, Lisa Crozier, Michael Fogarty, Sarah Gaichas, Kimberly J. W. Hyde, Toni Lyn Morelli, Jeffrey Morisette, Hassan Moustahfid, Roldan Munoz, Rajendra Poudel, Michelle D. Staudinger, Charles Stock, Laura Thompson, Robin S. Waples, Jake WeltzinClimate change refugia and habitat connectivity promote species persistence
BackgroundClimate change refugia, areas buffered from climate change relative to their surroundings, are of increasing interest as natural resource managers seek to prioritize climate adaptation actions. However, evidence that refugia buffer the effects of anthropogenic climate change is largely missing.MethodsFocusing on the climate-sensitive Belding’s ground squirrel (Urocitellus beldingi), we pAuthorsToni Lyn Morelli, Sean P. Maher, Marisa C. W. Lim, Christina Kastely, Lindsey M. Eastman, Lorraine E. Flint, Alan L. Flint, Steven R. Beissinger, Craig MoritzNavigating translational ecology: Creating opportunities for scientist participation
Interest in translational ecology (TE) – a research approach that yields useful scientific outcomes through ongoing collaboration between scientists and stakeholders – is growing among both of these groups. Translational ecology brings together participants from different cultures and with different professional incentives. We address ways to cultivate a culture of TE, such as investing time in unAuthorsLauren M. Hallett, Toni Lyn Morelli, Leah R. Gerber, Max A. Moritz, Mark W. Schwartz, Nathan L. Stephenson, Jennifer L. Tank, Matthew A. Williamson, Connie A. WoodhouseBalancing research and service to decision makers
No abstract available.AuthorsJeremy S. Littell, Adam J. Terando, Toni Lyn MorelliFoundations of translational ecology
Ecologists who specialize in translational ecology (TE) seek to link ecological knowledge to decision making by integrating ecological science with the full complement of social dimensions that underlie today's complex environmental issues. TE is motivated by a search for outcomes that directly serve the needs of natural resource managers and decision makers. This objective distinguishes it from bAuthorsCarolyn A. F. Enquist, Stephen T. Jackson, Gregg M. Garfin, Frank W. Davis, Leah R. Gerber, Jeremy Littell, Jennifer L. Tank, Adam Terando, Tamara U. Wall, Benjamin S. Halpern, J. Kevin Hiers, Toni L. Morelli, Elizabeth McNie, Nathan L. Stephenson, Matthew A. Williamson, Connie A. Woodhouse, Laurie Yung, Mark W. Brunson, Kimberly R. Hall, Lauren M. Hallett, Dawn M. Lawson, Max A. Moritz, Koren R. Nydick, Amber Pairis, Andrea J. Ray, Claudia M. Regan, Hugh D. Safford, Mark W. Schwartz, M. Rebecca Shaw - News
*Disclaimer: Listing outside positions with professional scientific organizations on this Staff Profile are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an endorsement of those professional scientific organizations or their activities by the USGS, Department of the Interior, or U.S. Government