USGS Science Strategy for Arctic Alaska, FY2022-2024 Active

The United States is an Arctic nation because of Alaska and thus maintains tremendous interests and stewardship responsibilities in the region, especially as the Arctic undergoes substantial environmental transformation. This science strategy expresses the core values, mission, vision, and the broad research goals and priority objectives of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for science coordination in Arctic Alaska. It synthesizes strategic planning activities across the USGS in the Arctic over the next three-year planning horizon, identifies some major networks of collaboration, and aligns with current research priorities of the Biden-Harris Administration and the Department of the Interior (DOI). Also, in recognition of the rapid pace of Arctic environmental changes and the corresponding need to move with urgency beyond routine patterns of operation, this Strategy extends an execution challenge to staff and colleagues in hopes of reaching for breakthrough results in some target areas of performance.

Background

With a total area of territorial land and waters exceeding 1 million square miles, the U.S. Arctic is more expansive than people may realize. The Arctic Research and Policy Act of 1984 defines the Arctic for U.S. operational and science administration purposes (Section 112) as “...all United States and foreign territory north of the Arctic Circle and all United States territory north and west of the boundary formed by the Porcupine, Yukon, and Kuskokwim Rivers [in Alaska]; all contiguous seas, including the Arctic Ocean and the Beaufort, Bering, and Chukchi Seas; and the Aleutian chain.” This definition notably includes certain parts of Alaska south of the Arctic Circle, including the Aleutian Islands and portions of central and western mainland Alaska, such as the Seward Peninsula and the Yukon Delta. To support a common understanding and provide useful context about the basic geography, scope, and scale of Arctic matters, the USGS recently completed a series of updated general reference maps that provide geospatial information about relevant features of the U.S. Arctic (e.g., see Figure 1). The maps offer value as stand-alone products but are intended to be used in conjunction with an anticipated interactive website sourced by annual data updates, allowing users to access the various map layers in a dynamic up-to-date environment. This map series and website concept constitute a foundational feature of the USGS Arctic Science Strategy. In a corresponding manner, this updated strategy will also place more emphasis on integrating knowledge across individual projects and landscapes, and on expediting the potential transfer of knowledge into subject areas and spatio-temporal scales where decision-makers need more insight.

Drivers for this Strategy

The most fundamental driver for developing an updated Arctic Science Strategy is the increasing rate of environmental change in the region and the corresponding urgency for relevant information needed by residents of Alaska and the many state and local agencies and Native organizations that represent them. Another primary driver is the increasing relevance of Arctic issues to national and global affairs. These primary drivers require more scientific collaboration and co-production of knowledge to help decision-makers better understand, monitor, and mitigate pressing concerns across the circumpolar North. Although warming and cooling cycles have occurred over millennium of geologic time, the current warming trend is unprecedented and affects the Arctic at a much faster rate than other places on Earth (Thoman and others, 2020; Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, 2021). Over the past four decades, rapidly warming temperatures have resulted in cascading consequences that already include record reduction of sea-ice cover, loss of land ice from glaciers and the Greenland Ice Sheet, reduction in snow cover, widespread permafrost thaw, and proliferating wildfires. These ongoing physical changes have implications in the Arctic and beyond for: altering weather patterns and storm events; raising sea level; restructuring marine and terrestrial ecosystems; expanding marine transport; accessing mineral and biological resources; increasing greenhouse gas emissions; increasing the severity of some natural hazard processes such as landslides and floods; threatening human health, well-being and infrastructure; and disrupting national security (e.g. Taylor et al. 2017; Richter-Menge et al. 2019; Overland et al. 2019, Previdi et al., 2021).

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Such dynamic circumstances motivate close attention to all Arctic governance planning and operations, especially within DOI, which is responsible for the stewardship of more than 60% of the U.S. Arctic land base and more than 95% of the U.S. Arctic marine waters. Notable DOI-managed Arctic landholdings include (see Figure 2): National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve, Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge, the Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge (not visible on Figure 2), and all the offshore submerged lands that constitute the Alaska Region Outer Continental Shelf beginning three miles from shore and extending to the 200-mile limit of the Exclusive Economic Zone. The DOI thus plays a central role in how the United States stewards its public lands, manages environmental protections, pursues environmental justice, and honors our nation-to-nation relationship with Tribes. In 2021, DOI identified the following thematic priorities that intersect most closely with USGS research activities in Alaska (see www.doi.gov/ourpriorities):  

• Investing in Climate Research  
• Incentivizing Clean Energy 
• Protecting Public Health and Safety 
• Sustaining Economic Vitality  
• Conserving Public Lands and Waters 
• Protecting Biodiversity 
• Centering Equity and Environmental Justice 
• Strengthening Tribal Relations
• Promoting Diversity, Equity, Inclusion and Accessibility

 

The USGS Arctic Science Strategy closely aligns with policy directives set forward in the following documents: Executive Order 13990 of January 20, 2021 (Protecting Public Health and the Environment), Executive Order 14008 of January 27, 2021 (Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad), Executive Order 14017 of February 24, 2021 (America’s Supply Chains), Executive Order 13953 of September 30, 2020 (Addressing the Threat to the Domestic Supply Chain From Reliance on Critical Minerals From Foreign Adversaries and Supporting the Domestic Mining and Processing Industries), and the 2019 Presidential Memorandum on Ocean Mapping, (including Alaska mapping) and its subsequent National Ocean Mapping, Exploration, and Characterization Strategy and Implementation Plan. This Strategy also builds upon the DOI Climate Action Plan released October 7, 2021, and the USGS 21^st Century Science Strategy, 2020-2030, first posted on January 19, 2021.

Interagency Context

As DOI’s lead science agency, the USGS plays an important role in facilitating partnerships and contributing to the alignment of Arctic research capacities across local, state, federal, and global institutions to improve effective use of limited financial resources and to address urgent information priorities. Yet another driver for this USGS Arctic Science Strategy is that it aims to provide a clear reference point to inform current and near-term agency priorities in the Arctic. The year 2021 marked a substantial planning horizon as numerous institutions simultaneously began to update their Arctic research goals.

In December 2021, the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee released its updated U.S. Arctic Research Plan, 2022-2026 (see NSTC 2022), and has begun to define a Biennial Implementation Plan (with support from USGS funding). Internationally, the Arctic Council administers numerous working groups such as the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program and the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program, which are also developing new five-year plans to advance next steps for Arctic biodiversity conservation strategies. In September of 2021, the Arctic Executive Steering Committee was reestablished, and the U.S. Arctic Research Commission was rejuvenated by multiple new White House appointments. In that institutional context, this Strategy outlines the USGS mission, vision, broad strategic goals, and some priority objectives for the Arctic region over the next three years, though it may be further updated at any time. All implementation plans and coordination will continue to occur through annual budget planning processes conducted by existing program advisory councils and executive leadership within the USGS and DOI. Strategy implementation also remains subject to availability of funding and to the evolving circumstances imposed by ongoing COVID-19 recovery efforts.

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International Context

Eight nations hold territorial claims north of the Arctic Circle, including the United States, Canada, Denmark (via Greenland), Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Russia. These eight countries are often referred to as the Arctic States, and they are the member states of the Arctic Council. The Arctic Council was created in 1996 through a Ministerial Joint Declaration in Ottawa as an international forum that operates through consensus, rather than treaty, to emphasize the peaceful and cooperative nature of the Arctic region. In addition to the eight member states, six organizations representing Arctic indigenous peoples have status as Permanent Participants. Additionally, 13 non-Arctic states, 13 intergovernmental organizations, and 12 nongovernmental organizations have been approved as observers, making for a current total of 38 observer states and organizations (Arctic Council, 2021). The growing international tally of highly attentive participants in Arctic affairs further supports the rationale for development of this updated USGS Arctic Science Strategy.

Building on the Past and Present:

The USGS mission is to monitor, analyze, and predict current and evolving dynamics of complex human and natural Earth-system interactions and to deliver actionable information at scales and timeframes relevant to decision-makers. Consistent with its national mission, the USGS in Alaska provides timely and objective scientific information to help address issues and inform management decisions across five inter-connected topical areas: geospatial mapping, ecosystem changes; energy and mineral resources; natural hazards; water (and cryosphere) resources.

Due to the persistent high DOI focus on Alaska, the USGS has maintained a wide variety of research programs and projects focused on the Arctic, which can only be briefly summarized here.  It is also important to note that all these activities depend on strong partnerships with other Federal science agencies, the state of Alaska, and many private and academic contributors.

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In 2020, the USGS completed an important 10-year project, having acquired new data and maps for Alaska to raise the accuracy and currency of Alaska topographic mapping to levels found common in the conterminous United States. This mapping was coordinated through the Alaska Mapping Executive Committee (AMEC), which consists of executives from fifteen federal agencies and the State of Alaska. USGS is managing acquisition of several digital map layers for AMEC including elevation, surface water, and satellite imagery. USGS also facilitated the international coordination of a pan-Arctic digital elevation model. Geospatial data collection and dissemination will certainly remain a core feature of our priority work.

As changing climate impacts intensify in northern latitudes, ongoing work to detect and measure the climate signal and global impacts through Arctic amplification will also intensify. Since 2010, the USGS Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative has focused on Arctic wildlife and habitat response to rapid environmental changes and bio-surveillance of various public health concerns. Monitoring of healthy animal and plant populations in the Arctic will remain a high priority, and so further refinement of research methods used to observe and measure the population dynamics of sentinel species will be needed. CAE also includes support for data management of USGS Arctic research, student internships under the Alaska Native Science and Engineering Program, and active communication and coordination of research plans and findings to communities near where USGS conducts its work. These social dimensions of ecosystem research will also continue to strengthen and evolve.

Geological research plays a key role in fostering sustainable economies and livelihoods that are vital to the well-being of Arctic residents. Specifically, USGS conducts research that increases our understanding of Alaska petroleum systems on the North Slope and informs recurrent assessments of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources, as well as gas hydrate resources. This work will continue to inform decisions about land use, as will new investments to update assessments in renewable resources and carbon sequestration. USGS also works directly with the Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys to provide the key geologic, geophysical, and geochemical framework data for identifying critical mineral resources in the far North. These lines of effort will also surely intensify in the coming years as a demand for rare earth minerals grow to support alternative energy development.

Hazard risk management and mitigation is a vital concern to all residents in the Arctic. The USGS addresses numerous Arctic hazards and ongoing changes to hydrologic and cryospheric systems, such as:

• observing dynamic glacier-climate interactions at long-term benchmark monitoring sites;
• mapping permafrost and the various implications of thaw;
• collecting and curating paleoclimate records in sediment and ice cores to understand past precipitation, sedimentation, air and ocean temperature, and atmospheric composition variability;
• assessing rates of shoreline erosion along the extensive coastline;
• modeling vegetation and wildfire characteristics of tundra and boreal forests;
• monitoring volcanic and earthquake activity, especially in the Aleutian region of the Arctic; investigating tsunami records to inform ongoing risk from local and Pacific wide tsunami sources;
• monitoring variations in Earth’s geomagnetic field to support power-grid and directional drilling operations;
• promoting the development of online databases and tools to facilitate community resilience and adaptation planning.  

The USGS also has critical statutory and non-statutory roles regarding management and analysis of floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms. These concerns will remain high priorities of research and investment in the coming years, with notable growing attention on improved coastal community resilience.

Rising to Future Challenges:

USGS Vision: Lead the nation in 21^st century integrated research, assessments and prediction of natural resources and processes to meet society’s needs. Arctic Vision: To support a thriving, adaptive, equitable, and secure Northern society sustained by a healthy ecosystem and enabled by collaborative scientific engagement and timely information delivery.

Looking forward, the USGS remains committed to maintain a leadership role in Arctic science and technology by delivering accurate study of relevant physical, geological, chemical, and biological resources or hazards, and by promoting integration of these activities through an increasingly holistic and service-oriented approach.  The USGS will work to develop systemic frameworks to link our observational capabilities across scales—from small plot to national monitoring networks to global satellite observations. Such investments in data collection and integration will include technological advancements in high performance computing, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, machine learning, visualization, and decision support tools. Future work will build on current activities and expertise, while also transitioning into new focal areas of emerging concern.

USGS is also committed to ensuring inclusive and equitable workforce strategies and increasing participation in science for underrepresented groups in Alaska and the Arctic. For example, the Volcano Science Center recently established an URGE (Unlearning Racism in the Geosciences) pod that developed a two-year Action Plan and chartered the Alaska Region Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Accessibility (DEIA) Steering Committee to see this work through to completion. The committee is currently undertaking work in the following areas: removing barriers in recruitment and hiring processes, establishing an accessible mentoring program, mainstreaming inclusive habits and behaviors in the workplace, improving field and lab plans to include safety protocols related to anti-harassment, and promoting access to educational/awareness materials regarding racism. Also, in July 2021, the Alaska Region established a new MOU between USGS and Alaska Pacific University for a period of five years to support APU as an Alaska Native Serving Institution. We continue to participate annually in the Alaska Native Science and Engineering Program (ANSEP) to support systematic change in the hiring patterns of Alaska Natives in science and engineering by placing students on a career path to leadership. Additionally, we should highlight USGS participation in the Indigenous Observation Network (ION), which is a notable long-term, community-based, water-quality monitoring program operating across Alaska and Western Canada.  The program is led by the Yukon River Intertribal Watershed Council in partnership with the USGS and the University of Alaska-Fairbanks. More than 1600 samples of surface water geochemistry have been collected at 35 sites throughout the Yukon River Basin over the past 15+ years. The program involves significant co-production of knowledge with members of Indigenous communities and capacity building through training in sampling methods and data analysis. Future work is anticipated to build on such examples of participatory research.

Where opportunity allows, the USGS Alaska Region, in consultation with mission area leadership and regional partners, will seek to enhance operational capacity in each of the following strategic goals and associated objectives:

 

Goal 1: Improve Alaska geospatial data collection, mapping, modeling and visualization tools to help build communities of practice and predictive capabilities among scientific, Indigenous, and policy experts around shared interests and concerns.

Objectives

• Maintain a national archive of remotely sensed data and products of the Earth’s land surface that informs assessments of Arctic environmental conditions and natural hazards;
• Increase capacity to access and use downscaled climate projections, develop ecosystem-based impact scenarios at relevant scales, and enable better stakeholder access to output products from both;
• Work with AMEC and other partners to improve mapping and monitoring of land and surface water conditions across Alaska, including remapping hydrography and watershed boundaries to meet national high-resolution standards; complete the updated production of Alaska’s topographic map products, and deliver an interactive web platform sourced by annual data updates that facilitate awareness of U.S. Arctic boundary conditions;
• Enhance research coordination with university faculty and graduate students through the Cooperative Research Unit at University of Alaska-Fairbanks, and continue to partner with the Alaska Native Science and Engineering Program and other institutions to strengthen the STEM pipeline in USGS;
• Maintain active support for external science advisory board collaborations through regional partnerships with the Alaska Mapping Executive Committee, Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee, North Pacific Research Board, Alaska Ocean Observing System, Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy, Alaska Sea Grant, Arctic Spatial Data Infrastructure, Alaska Conservation Foundation, National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, and Arctic Council working groups.

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Goal 2: Research ecosystem structure and function to help inform decisions about natural resource management and to sustain the economic and environmental health of the Arctic. 

Objectives

• Identify the abundance and map the distributions of DOI trust species (polar bear, walrus, sea otter, migratory birds) and other species of concern through sustained monitoring and biogeographic modeling techniques; 
• Assess shifting food web structures and changes in abundance and distribution for Arctic fish to inform land and resource management;
• Develop tools to automate processing of data from satellite tags used on wildlife and develop a web-based database for serving processed and approved satellite tag location data;
• Use ecological and decision sciences to inform DOI strategies for achieving management, conservation, mitigation, and subsistence objectives in the face of continuing changes in land use and development, climate, and other drivers;
• Monitor diseases in wildlife and bird populations; predict the ecological and public health consequences; and provide data for disease management practices.

 

Goal 3: Produce information and assessments that focus on the location, quantity, and quality of mineral and energy resources, including the economic and environmental effects of resource extraction and use.

Objectives

• Conduct research to better understand the geologic framework in Alaska and identify areas that may have the potential to contain undiscovered critical mineral resources in concert with the Earth Mapping Resources Initiative;
• Understand and quantify the distribution of critical elements and other mineral resources in ore-forming systems of Alaska (onshore and offshore) that may reduce mineral import dependence;
• Update regional assessments of renewable energy resources from geothermal, wind and wave energy in Alaska Arctic and sub-arctic communities;
• Build upon the 2013 USGS carbon sequestration assessment of geology on Alaska’s North Slope to identify alternate forms of geologic storage and potential direct air capture deployment, locations of high potential with low risk, and related emerging economic opportunities.
• Continue with research into the geology of Alaska’s North Slope and adjacent offshore areas, building upon the latest delivery of undiscovered, technically recoverable hydrocarbon resource estimates and watching for hazard implications as temperatures rise;

 

Goal 4: Monitor, assess, and conduct targeted research on Alaska’s natural hazards to improve public safety and reduce risk and economic losses.

Objectives

• Issue timely warnings for volcanic eruption, and promote risk reduction for earthquakes, landslides, and other geologic hazards;
• Modernize and expand the volcano monitoring network to increase pre-eruption warning time, improve rapid detection and characterization of volcanic activity and hazards, and enhance research related to Alaska’s active volcanoes;
• Enhance capacity to assess and monitor emergent hazards resulting from melting glaciers and thawing permafrost, such as landslides, glacial lake outburst floods, glacier detachments, subsidence and thermokarst, mercury bioaccumulation;
• Complete assessment of historical shoreline change rates for the Arctic coastline of Alaska;
• Expand the USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System to forecast and assess coastal impacts of storm surge, erosion and flooding along the north and west coasts of Alaska; improve understanding of tsunami record and vulnerability in arctic Alaska.

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Goal 5: Address novel and pressing challenges of water resource management and related ecological impacts or emerging threats.

Objectives

• Maintain benchmark glacier research and monitoring program to continue quantifying changes in mass balance, volume, spatial extent and relationships to climate conditions, and refining knowledge of relationships to sea level change, water supply and ecosystem linkages;
• Maintain and expand the network of streamgages to inform flood forecasting, water cycle modeling, development and permitting, and water use and availability;
• Develop and test remotely sensed methods of measuring river discharge flow, sediment re-emission and pollution for improving flood-hazard mitigation and public health awareness;
• Expand water quality monitoring and investigations throughout the icefield-to-ocean ecosystem and river-ice transport corridors of Arctic rivers and lakes to better understand how changes in glaciers, permafrost, and landcover will affect changes in water and air quality, streamflow, nutrients, and sediments;
• Enhance rapid response and laboratory support for the investigation of algal toxins and detecting and assessing the range of certain pathogens and parasitic distributions in Alaska;

Execution challenge

Given the pace of transformation in northern latitudes, a business-as-usual approach that simply continues to conduct and support established patterns of research and publication is not sufficient. Federal agencies need to take additional measures to ensure that scientific research is conducted in appropriate partnership with stakeholders, relevant to pressing information needs, and made widely available to other scientists, decision makers, stakeholder communities, and the public. An improved information network is vital to facilitate understanding, to ensure more accountable decision-making, and to engage more easily with innovators and private industry who may translate scientific knowledge into useful products and services (Young and Lander, 2021).

Our various stakeholders, especially in Arctic Alaska, have come to expect a much deeper engagement with scientists and science agencies than previously exercised. “Co-production” and participatory science is the new collaborative model of research, by which we mean and endorse the concept of active engagement among multiple interested parties (scientists, indigenous knowledge-holders, residents, policy makers) to produce multiple new social outcomes, including advancement of knowledge, improved decision-making, and greater social equity (e.g., see Miller and Wyborn 2020; Williams and Erikson 2021; NSTC 2022). While not every scientific enterprise is well suited for co-production, both intellectual merit and social equity improves when the participatory science model is used with community input and undertaken through high-quality interactions. Thus, the “execution challenge” issued by the USGS Alaska Regional Office for the coming years is to call upon all colleagues and staff working in the Arctic to accelerate actions on three fronts: 1) advancing science to meet pressing societal needs; 2) ensuring that scientific knowledge produced is understandable, usable, and responsive to the needs of key stakeholders and decision-makers; and 3) engaging more fully with the emerging model of participatory science.

 

Cited References

Arctic Council, 2021, Arctic Council—The leading intergovernmental forum promoting cooperation in the Arctic: Arctic Council website, accessed November 2021, at https://arctic-council.org/.

Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (2021). Arctic climate change update 2021—Key trends and impacts—Summary for policy-makers: Oslo, Norway, Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), 15 p.

Miller, C.A., and Wyborn, C. (2020). Co-production in global sustainability: Histories and theories. Environmental Science and Policy 113, 88-95.

(NSTC) National Science and Technology Council (2021). Arctic Research Plan 2022-2026. https://www.iarpccollaborations.org/uploads/cms/documents/final-arp-2022-2026-20211214.pdf

Overland, James, et al. (2019). The urgency of Arctic change. Polar Science, Volume 21, September, Pages 6-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2018.11.008

Previdi, M., K.L. Smith, L.M. Polvani (2021). Arctic Amplification of climate change: a review of underlying mechanisms. Environmental Research Letters, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac1c29.

Richter-Menge, J, M.L. Druckenmiller, and M. Jeffries, Eds., (2019). Arctic Report Card, https://arctic.noaa.gov/Portals/7/ArcticReportCard/Documents/ArcticReportCard_full_report2019.pdf

Taylor, P.C., W. Maslowski, J. Perlwitz, and D.J. Wuebbles, (2017). Arctic changes and their effects on Alaska and the rest of the United States. In: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 303-332, doi:10.7930/J00863GK.

Thoman, R.L., Richter-Menge, J., and Druckenmiller, M.L., eds., 2020, NOAA Arctic report card 2020 executive summary: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, https://doi.org/10.25923/mn5p-t549.

U.S. Geological Survey Geologic Carbon Dioxide Storage Resources Assessment Team, 2013, National assessment of geologic carbon dioxide storage resources—Results (ver. 1.1, September 2013): U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1386, 41 p., https://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1386. (Supersedes ver. 1.0 released June 26, 2013.)

Williams, D.M., and Erikson, Li, (2021). Knowledge Gaps Update to the 2019 IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere: Prospects to Refine Coastal Flood Hazard Assessments and Adaptation Strategies With At-Risk Communities of Alaska. Frontiers in Climate 2021-12-03 | Journal article. doi:10.3389/fclim.2021.761439

Williams, D.M., and Richmond, C.L., 2021, Arctic Alaska boundary area maps as defined by the U.S. Arctic Research and Policy Act—Updated with geospatial characteristics of select marine and terrestrial features: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map 3484, 5 sheets, pamphlet 7p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sim3484

Young, Shalanda and Eric Lander (2021). Memorandum for the Heads of Executive Departments and Agencies, from Directors of OMB and OSTP, ”Multi-Agency Research and Development Priorities for the FY 2023 Budget”, August 27.