Mapping Grassland Bird Community Distribution under a Changing Climate

Background 

Over the last half-century, populations of grassland birds declined more than any other bird group in North America. This decline is largely due to conversion of native grasslands to agricultural row crops and degradation of remaining prairies through altered fire regimes, woody encroachment, spread of invasive plants, and human development. Land managers and conservation organizations are racing to preserve and restore these ecosystems to stem further loss of grassland birds.  

Given limited resources, bird habitat models are needed to help managers prioritize where conservation efforts will be most effective. In addition to habitat loss and degradation of native grasslands, increasing greenhouse gas emissions will likely change temperatures and rainfall patterns across the Great Plains. This changing climate is expected to alter vegetation communities and the bird species that depend on them. To date, predictions of bird response to a changing climate have focused on changes in temperature and precipitation, but vegetation change (and therefore bird habitat) also depends on factors such as vegetation type and soils.  

Project Goals and Anticipated Outcomes 

By studying how vegetation influences grassland birds across the western Great Plains, we are creating models and maps of projected bird distribution under multiple future climate scenarios of grassland vegetation and land use change. These maps will help land managers and other decision makers understand how their site-level projects fit within regional and climatic contexts. Training modules and a web-based application accompanying these maps will increase capacity among Federal, State, Tribal, and private partners in their conservation planning under a changing climate.