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Quantitative and Statistical Research Collaboration

Completed
By Fort Collins Science Center July 19, 2016

Mathematical and statistical models are powerful research tools that play several important roles in conceptualizing and understanding the structure and dynamics of complicated ecological systems, including developing mechanistic hypotheses pertaining to ecological systems, designing studies that elucidate ecosystem structure and function, and extracting information from data.

The complex nature of ecological systems and the data arising from studies of these systems often require the development of specialized and sophisticated models so that progress can be made in understanding these systems. The objective under this task is to develop mathematical or statistical models that abstract and accommodate the unique characteristics of ecological systems and data, while allowing for maximum extraction of information about those systems. This is accomplished through collaboration with field biologists having unique or unusual data analysis questions or circumstances, and with mathematicians and statisticians able to creatively apply powerful mathematical or statistical methods to difficult, real-world problems.

Below are other science projects associated with this project.

link
A cutthroat trout. Photo by James Roberts, USGS.

Using Quantile Regression to Investigate Ecological Limiting Factors

Unexplained heterogeneity in statistical models of animal responses to their physical environment is reasonable to expect because the measured habitat resources are a constraint on—but not the sole determinant of—abundance, survival, fecundity, or fitness. The ecological understanding and reliability of management predictions based on animal habitat models can be improved by shifting focus from...
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Species Management Research Program, Fort Collins Science Center
link

Using Quantile Regression to Investigate Ecological Limiting Factors

Unexplained heterogeneity in statistical models of animal responses to their physical environment is reasonable to expect because the measured habitat resources are a constraint on—but not the sole determinant of—abundance, survival, fecundity, or fitness. The ecological understanding and reliability of management predictions based on animal habitat models can be improved by shifting focus from...
Learn More

Below are publications associated with this project.

Filter Total Items: 29

Model averaging and muddled multimodel inferences

Three flawed practices associated with model averaging coefficients for predictor variables in regression models commonly occur when making multimodel inferences in analyses of ecological data. Model-averaged regression coefficients based on Akaike information criterion (AIC) weights have been recommended for addressing model uncertainty but they are not valid, interpretable estimates of partial e
Authors
Brian S. Cade
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Fort Collins Science Center

Daily nest survival rates of Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus): assessing local- and landscape-scale drivers

The Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of conservation concern and is a candidate for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act because of substantial declines in populations from historic levels. It is thought that loss, fragmentation, and deterioration of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) habitat have contributed to the decline and isolation of this species into seven geograph
Authors
Thomas R. Stanley, Cameron L. Aldridge, Joanne Saher, Theresa Childers
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Fort Collins Science Center

Breeding biology of an afrotropical forest understory bird community in northeastern Tanzania

Many aspects of the breeding biology of Afrotropical forest birds are poorly known. Here we provide a description based on the monitoring of 1461 active nests over eight breeding seasons about one or more aspects of the breeding biology for 28 coexisting understory bird species on the Amani Plateau in the East Usambara Mountains, Tanzania. Mean nest height and mean distance of nest from forest edg
Authors
Victor J. Mkongewa, William D. Newmark, Thomas R. Stanley
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Fort Collins Science Center

Genetic diversity and species diversity of stream fishes covary across a land-use gradient

Genetic diversity and species diversity are expected to covary according to area and isolation, but may not always covary with environmental heterogeneity. In this study, we examined how patterns of genetic and species diversity in stream fishes correspond to local and regional environmental conditions. To do so, we compared population size, genetic diversity and divergence in central stonerollers
Authors
M.J. Blum, M.J. Bagley, D.M. Walters, S.A. Jackson, F.B. Daniel, D.J. Chaloud, Brian S. Cade
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Fort Collins Science Center

Sagebrush ecosystem conservation and management: Ecoregional assessment tools and models for the Wyoming Basins

The Wyoming Basins are one of the remaining strongholds of the sagebrush ecosystem. However, like most sagebrush habitats, threats to this region are numerous. This book adds to current knowledge about the regional status of the sagebrush ecosystem, the distribution of habitats, the threats to the ecosystem, and the influence of threats and habitat conditions on occurrence and abundance of sagebru
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Fort Collins Science Center

Foaling rates in feral horses treated with the immunocontraceptive porcine zona pellucida

Locally abundant feral horses (Equus caballus) can rapidly deplete available resources. Fertility control agents present promising nonlethal tools for reducing their population growth rates. We tested the effect of 2 forms of the immunocontraceptive porcine zona pellucida (PZP) on foaling rates in 3 populations of feral horses in the western United States. A liquid form requiring annual boosters w
Authors
J.I. Ransom, J. E. Roelle, B.S. Cade, L. Coates-Markle, A.J. Kane

Trophic magnification of PCBs and its relationship to the octanol-water partition coefficient

We investigated polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) bioaccumulation relative to octanol-water partition coefficient (KOW) and organism trophic position (TP) at the Lake Hartwell Superfund site (South Carolina). We measured PCBs (127 congeners) and stable isotopes (??15N) in sediment, organic matter, phytoplankton, zooplankton, macroinvertebrates, and fish. TP, as calculated from ??15N, was significantl
Authors
D.M. Walters, M.A. Mills, B.S. Cade, L.P. Burkard

Genetic and environmental influences on leaf phenology and cold hardiness of native and introduced riparian trees

To explore the roles of plasticity and genetic variation in the response to spatial and temporal climate variation, we established a common garden consisting of paired collections of native and introduced riparian trees sampled along a latitudinal gradient. The garden in Fort Collins, Colorado (latitude 40.6°N), included 681 native plains cottonwood (Populus deltoides subsp. monilifera) and introd
Authors
J. M. Friedman, J. E. Roelle, B.S. Cade
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Fort Collins Science Center

Chapter 6: Detectability adjusted count models of songbird abundance

Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) steppe ecosystems have experienced recent changes resulting not only in the loss of habitat but also fragmentation and degradation of remaining habitats. As a result, sagebrush-obligate and sagebrush associated songbird populations have experienced population declines over the past several decades. We examined landscape-scale responses in occupancy and abundance for six
Authors
Cameron L. Aldridge, Steve E. Hanser, Scott E. Nielsen, Matthias Leu, Brian S. Cade, D. Joanne Saher, Steven T. Knick
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Fort Collins Science Center

Habitat fragmentation reduces nest survival in an Afrotropical bird community in a biodiversity hotspot

Ecologists have long hypothesized that fragmentation of tropical landscapes reduces avian nest success. However, this hypothesis has not been rigorously assessed because of the difficulty of finding large numbers of well-hidden nests in tropical forests. Here we report that in the East Usambara Mountains in Tanzania, which are part of the Eastern Arc Mountains, a global biodiversity hotspot, that
Authors
W.D. Newmark, T.R. Stanley

Assessing conservation relevance of organism-environment relations using predicted changes in response variables

1. Organism–environment models are used widely in conservation. The degree to which they are useful for informing conservation decisions – the conservation relevance of these relations – is important because lack of relevance may lead to misapplication of scarce conservation resources or failure to resolve important conservation dilemmas. Even when models perform well based on model fit and predic
Authors
Kevin J. Gutzwiller, Wylie C. Barrow, Joseph D. White, Lori Johnson-Randall, Brian S. Cade, Lisa M. Zygo
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Influences of immunocontraception on time budgets, social behavior, and body condition in feral horses

Managers concerned with shrinking habitats and limited resources for wildlife seek effective tools for limiting population growth in some species. Fertility control is one such tool, yet little is known about its impacts on the behavioral ecology of wild, free-roaming animals. We investigated influences of the immunocontraceptive porcine zona pellucida (PZP) on individual and social behavior in ba
Authors
J.I. Ransom, B.S. Cade, N.T. Hobbs

Mathematical and statistical models are powerful research tools that play several important roles in conceptualizing and understanding the structure and dynamics of complicated ecological systems, including developing mechanistic hypotheses pertaining to ecological systems, designing studies that elucidate ecosystem structure and function, and extracting information from data.

The complex nature of ecological systems and the data arising from studies of these systems often require the development of specialized and sophisticated models so that progress can be made in understanding these systems. The objective under this task is to develop mathematical or statistical models that abstract and accommodate the unique characteristics of ecological systems and data, while allowing for maximum extraction of information about those systems. This is accomplished through collaboration with field biologists having unique or unusual data analysis questions or circumstances, and with mathematicians and statisticians able to creatively apply powerful mathematical or statistical methods to difficult, real-world problems.

Below are other science projects associated with this project.

link
A cutthroat trout. Photo by James Roberts, USGS.

Using Quantile Regression to Investigate Ecological Limiting Factors

Unexplained heterogeneity in statistical models of animal responses to their physical environment is reasonable to expect because the measured habitat resources are a constraint on—but not the sole determinant of—abundance, survival, fecundity, or fitness. The ecological understanding and reliability of management predictions based on animal habitat models can be improved by shifting focus from...
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Species Management Research Program, Fort Collins Science Center
link

Using Quantile Regression to Investigate Ecological Limiting Factors

Unexplained heterogeneity in statistical models of animal responses to their physical environment is reasonable to expect because the measured habitat resources are a constraint on—but not the sole determinant of—abundance, survival, fecundity, or fitness. The ecological understanding and reliability of management predictions based on animal habitat models can be improved by shifting focus from...
Learn More

Below are publications associated with this project.

Filter Total Items: 29

Model averaging and muddled multimodel inferences

Three flawed practices associated with model averaging coefficients for predictor variables in regression models commonly occur when making multimodel inferences in analyses of ecological data. Model-averaged regression coefficients based on Akaike information criterion (AIC) weights have been recommended for addressing model uncertainty but they are not valid, interpretable estimates of partial e
Authors
Brian S. Cade
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Fort Collins Science Center

Daily nest survival rates of Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus): assessing local- and landscape-scale drivers

The Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of conservation concern and is a candidate for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act because of substantial declines in populations from historic levels. It is thought that loss, fragmentation, and deterioration of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) habitat have contributed to the decline and isolation of this species into seven geograph
Authors
Thomas R. Stanley, Cameron L. Aldridge, Joanne Saher, Theresa Childers
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Fort Collins Science Center

Breeding biology of an afrotropical forest understory bird community in northeastern Tanzania

Many aspects of the breeding biology of Afrotropical forest birds are poorly known. Here we provide a description based on the monitoring of 1461 active nests over eight breeding seasons about one or more aspects of the breeding biology for 28 coexisting understory bird species on the Amani Plateau in the East Usambara Mountains, Tanzania. Mean nest height and mean distance of nest from forest edg
Authors
Victor J. Mkongewa, William D. Newmark, Thomas R. Stanley
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Fort Collins Science Center

Genetic diversity and species diversity of stream fishes covary across a land-use gradient

Genetic diversity and species diversity are expected to covary according to area and isolation, but may not always covary with environmental heterogeneity. In this study, we examined how patterns of genetic and species diversity in stream fishes correspond to local and regional environmental conditions. To do so, we compared population size, genetic diversity and divergence in central stonerollers
Authors
M.J. Blum, M.J. Bagley, D.M. Walters, S.A. Jackson, F.B. Daniel, D.J. Chaloud, Brian S. Cade
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Fort Collins Science Center

Sagebrush ecosystem conservation and management: Ecoregional assessment tools and models for the Wyoming Basins

The Wyoming Basins are one of the remaining strongholds of the sagebrush ecosystem. However, like most sagebrush habitats, threats to this region are numerous. This book adds to current knowledge about the regional status of the sagebrush ecosystem, the distribution of habitats, the threats to the ecosystem, and the influence of threats and habitat conditions on occurrence and abundance of sagebru
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Fort Collins Science Center

Foaling rates in feral horses treated with the immunocontraceptive porcine zona pellucida

Locally abundant feral horses (Equus caballus) can rapidly deplete available resources. Fertility control agents present promising nonlethal tools for reducing their population growth rates. We tested the effect of 2 forms of the immunocontraceptive porcine zona pellucida (PZP) on foaling rates in 3 populations of feral horses in the western United States. A liquid form requiring annual boosters w
Authors
J.I. Ransom, J. E. Roelle, B.S. Cade, L. Coates-Markle, A.J. Kane

Trophic magnification of PCBs and its relationship to the octanol-water partition coefficient

We investigated polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) bioaccumulation relative to octanol-water partition coefficient (KOW) and organism trophic position (TP) at the Lake Hartwell Superfund site (South Carolina). We measured PCBs (127 congeners) and stable isotopes (??15N) in sediment, organic matter, phytoplankton, zooplankton, macroinvertebrates, and fish. TP, as calculated from ??15N, was significantl
Authors
D.M. Walters, M.A. Mills, B.S. Cade, L.P. Burkard

Genetic and environmental influences on leaf phenology and cold hardiness of native and introduced riparian trees

To explore the roles of plasticity and genetic variation in the response to spatial and temporal climate variation, we established a common garden consisting of paired collections of native and introduced riparian trees sampled along a latitudinal gradient. The garden in Fort Collins, Colorado (latitude 40.6°N), included 681 native plains cottonwood (Populus deltoides subsp. monilifera) and introd
Authors
J. M. Friedman, J. E. Roelle, B.S. Cade
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Fort Collins Science Center

Chapter 6: Detectability adjusted count models of songbird abundance

Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) steppe ecosystems have experienced recent changes resulting not only in the loss of habitat but also fragmentation and degradation of remaining habitats. As a result, sagebrush-obligate and sagebrush associated songbird populations have experienced population declines over the past several decades. We examined landscape-scale responses in occupancy and abundance for six
Authors
Cameron L. Aldridge, Steve E. Hanser, Scott E. Nielsen, Matthias Leu, Brian S. Cade, D. Joanne Saher, Steven T. Knick
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Fort Collins Science Center

Habitat fragmentation reduces nest survival in an Afrotropical bird community in a biodiversity hotspot

Ecologists have long hypothesized that fragmentation of tropical landscapes reduces avian nest success. However, this hypothesis has not been rigorously assessed because of the difficulty of finding large numbers of well-hidden nests in tropical forests. Here we report that in the East Usambara Mountains in Tanzania, which are part of the Eastern Arc Mountains, a global biodiversity hotspot, that
Authors
W.D. Newmark, T.R. Stanley

Assessing conservation relevance of organism-environment relations using predicted changes in response variables

1. Organism–environment models are used widely in conservation. The degree to which they are useful for informing conservation decisions – the conservation relevance of these relations – is important because lack of relevance may lead to misapplication of scarce conservation resources or failure to resolve important conservation dilemmas. Even when models perform well based on model fit and predic
Authors
Kevin J. Gutzwiller, Wylie C. Barrow, Joseph D. White, Lori Johnson-Randall, Brian S. Cade, Lisa M. Zygo
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Influences of immunocontraception on time budgets, social behavior, and body condition in feral horses

Managers concerned with shrinking habitats and limited resources for wildlife seek effective tools for limiting population growth in some species. Fertility control is one such tool, yet little is known about its impacts on the behavioral ecology of wild, free-roaming animals. We investigated influences of the immunocontraceptive porcine zona pellucida (PZP) on individual and social behavior in ba
Authors
J.I. Ransom, B.S. Cade, N.T. Hobbs