Appendix 7: Application of joint dynamic species distribution models to at-sea survey data for seabirds in the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea

Mitigating risk to migratory birds from energy development requires information on the distribution and abundance of seabirds in offshore waters. Seabirds are highly mobile, with species-specific seasonal migrations that result in variable patterns of distribution in space and time. In remote offshore marine areas, obtaining useful and current information on resources is difficult to achieve and maintain, both fiscally and logistically, necessitating collaborative effort (Danielson et al. 2022). We used seabird at-sea survey data (2007-2021) and new modeling techniques to develop spatio-temporal models of seasonal abundance and distribution of species in waters of the Pacific Arctic. For six species groups selected as model test cases, we identified fine-scale distributions for each year, using data collected during summer to early fall (June through September). Our approach uses the best available data and can be updated as new data are generated, providing up-to-date information for regions with existing or potential future oil and gas development.