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The study highlights a critical disparity in the assessment of NBS compared to traditional engineering solutions for coastal climate adaptation. While NBS hold immense promise, they are often evaluated with less rigor, hindering their widespread adoption in climate adaptation strategies.

Researchers conducted a comprehensive analysis to quantify the flood protection benefits of stakeholder-identified marsh restoration in San Francisco Bay. Focusing on San Mateo County, identified as the most vulnerable to future flooding in California, the study provides a rigorous evaluation of the efficacy of marsh restoration under current and projected climate change scenarios.

The study found that marsh restoration in San Mateo County offers a present value of 21 million USD in flood protection benefits, a figure that jumps to more than 100 million USD with a modest 0.5 meters of sea-level rise (SLR). As climate change-induced flooding intensifies, the value grows exponentially, reaching an estimated 500 million USD with one meter of SLR.

Notably, the research identifies specific hotspots within San Mateo County where marsh restoration delivers greatest benefits for climate adaptation. In one location, the benefits rise to 9 million USD per hectare, underscoring the potential of NBS in mitigating the impacts of rising sea levels and intensified storms.

"Investments made today in nature-based community resilience have the power to yield increasing payoffs as climate change intensifies,” said Rae Taylor-Burns, lead author of the study. “Marsh restoration emerges as a promising solution, while offering both flood protection and ecological benefits."

The study, The value of marsh restoration for flood risk reduction in an urban estuary, is published in Scientific Reports.

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